FRO R91300 Q3 contracted TCE versus breakeven and fleet contracts = 156900
Supply chain 2026-09-13 00:07
Aug28 Q2 issuer: Q3 bookedVLCC156900/day86%covered, Suezmax11740079%,LR28100070%; estimated12m cashbreakevens23800/25700/22200. Issuer says full-quarter TCE lower due ballast. Two newVLCC1y120000/day; two2016ships2/3y90000/75000. These are forward contracts/estimates, notSep12 paid rates. Conflict can remove cargo and increase ballast; fixed hires can cap upside as well as protect downside.
https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/
More EEM Gap, correlation and Monte Carlo derived measurements
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:07
Calculated Sep13 on June2021-Sep11 2026 daily bars. Raw latest1255 opening gaps, adjusted252-session correlations, IID10000x60 close paths seed20260913; descriptive only, no policy odds. {"gap_n":1255,"gap_min_pct":-5.739837398373981,"gap_p01_pct":-2.730322214753047,"stop_first_pct":64.25,"target_first_pct":24.11,"neither_pct":11.64,"terminal_p05_pct":-13.176391220584954,"terminal_p95_pct":19.52065005811567,"correlation":{"EEM":{"EEM":1,"QQQ":0.830609,"IWM":0.692751},"QQQ":{"EEM":0.830609,"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.737515},"IWM":{"EEM":0.692751,"QQQ":0.737515,"IWM":1}}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More C91300 completed Sep12 universe and aggregation audit = 10
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 00:06
Collected Sep13 00:03UTC from36 published USD pairs; seven completed UTC days Sep6–12. Top10 USDC10350216/USDG1899983/BTC676586/ETH383393/SOL196860/XRP185076/HYPE150323/LTC144752/LINK141496/USDT102726 USD reported sum(v*vw), rounded. USDG only3/7days; inventory not live Assets confirmation. USDT replacesUNI. DailyCLOSEscreen ETH2525.045>2516.066 true; XTZ outside top10 also true. BTC/ETH/SOL Sept12 dailyOHLCV reconstruct from24hourbars exactly (SOL volume floating-roundoff2.2e-14%). No inferred trade from volume rank or close screen.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More Joint gap bootstrap maximum-night loss distribution = 16.966882644386843
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
{"paths":20000,"nights":60,"historical_nights":1255,"joint_max_loss_p50":13.102510465679082,"joint_max_loss_p95":16.966882644386843,"joint_max_loss_max":20.658827830036604,"single_lot_max":7.657745018977896,"seed":20260913}; descriptive finite sample, excludes2020, no probability of live profit.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More Resized gap stress and 252-return correlations = 64.66551129013637
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
{"risk":[{"symbol":"QQQ","size":96.44,"normal":2.1229602366830784,"gain":15.593948094606814,"rr":7.3453792610693736,"stress":20.44468315542464,"breach_gap":0.2430583044256341,"sma_distance_pct":8.437307785361249},{"symbol":"IWM","size":96.45,"normal":2.0502761345148643,"gain":12.368598158700099,"rr":6.032649919922496,"stress":20.094531818797652,"breach_gap":0.243614842541859,"sma_distance_pct":5.756535927075612},{"symbol":"EFA","size":96.45,"normal":1.5925006841611973,"gain":9.288407846549198,"rr":5.832592688298649,"stress":24.12629631591408,"breach_gap":0.24726510275948646,"sma_distance_pct":5.986340973057924}],"correlation":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.7375146484818859,"EFA":0.7068026873334806},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.7375146484818859,"IWM":1,"EFA":0.7494056074136088},"EFA":{"QQQ":0.7068026873334806,"IWM":0.7494056074136088,"EFA":1}},"joint":64.66551129013637}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More ETH/USD Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = -46.433545367857086
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","bars":2081,"close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"above":true,"p90":42.934306094152,"stop":2336.2377088337,"target":3609.155549315081,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More BTC/USD Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = -33.45056899540282
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","bars":2081,"close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"above":true,"p90":37.16910440529673,"stop":72596.3206350254,"target":105985.60831084852,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More TLT Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = -5.756904789651552
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1579,"close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"above":false,"p90":6.150557763249668,"stop":79.48775,"target":85.84395606314001,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More GLD Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 18.94350653224364
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1579,"close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"above":false,"p90":16.781703911009302,"stop":382.86510999999996,"target":465.69040068593176,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More ETH/USD Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = -46.433545367857086
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","n":1930,"close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"above":true,"p90":42.934306094152,"target":3609.155549315081,"stop":2336.2377088337,"ratchet":2476.0462088337,"target_n":1826,"p10":-33.21539340954748,"median":1.8577727369171404,"rank":7,"qty":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More EEM Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 34.203758654797234
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1579,"close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"above":true,"p90":10.717963493264469,"stop":65.93472,"target":75.11106643383062,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More BTC/USD Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = -33.45056899540282
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","n":1930,"close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"above":true,"p90":37.16910440529673,"target":105985.60831084852,"stop":72596.3206350254,"ratchet":77563.43817309641,"target_n":1826,"p10":-23.001750771627812,"median":1.066233899433,"rank":6,"qty":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More TLT Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = -5.756904789651552
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1327,"close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"above":false,"p90":6.150557763249668,"target":85.84395606314001,"stop":79.48775,"ratchet":84.50049999999999,"target_n":1255,"p10":-11.283251311562955,"median":-1.3877258045220664,"rank":null,"qty":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More EFA Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 19.45812807881775
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1579,"close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"above":true,"p90":9.630282889112697,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":96.45}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More GLD Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = 18.94350653224364
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1327,"close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"above":false,"p90":16.781703911009302,"target":465.69040068593176,"stop":382.86510999999996,"ratchet":415.93449999999996,"target_n":1255,"p10":-6.23510715891343,"median":3.857176976355392,"rank":null,"qty":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More EEM Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = 34.203758654797234
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1327,"close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"above":true,"p90":10.717963493264469,"target":75.11106643383062,"stop":65.93472,"ratchet":67.21972,"target_n":1255,"p10":-8.174911932832696,"median":2.4013248688931954,"rank":1,"qty":1}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More IWM Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 23.457264957264947
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1579,"close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"above":true,"p90":12.823844643545982,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":96.45}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More EFA Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = 19.45812807881775
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1327,"close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"above":true,"p90":9.630282889112697,"target":116.97551184268325,"stop":104.93826,"ratchet":107.12826,"target_n":1255,"p10":-7.009502225865538,"median":2.971931755641166,"rank":4,"qty":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More QQQ Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 23.69878183831673
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1579,"close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"above":true,"p90":16.16958533244174,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":96.44}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More IWM Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = 23.457264957264947
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1327,"close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"above":true,"p90":12.823844643545982,"target":325.93680479074,"stop":282.74895,"ratchet":299.03895,"target_n":1255,"p10":-10.325191585667552,"median":2.64080874767898,"rank":3,"qty":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More QQQ Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = 23.69878183831673
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1327,"close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"above":true,"p90":16.16958533244174,"target":830.4731316245595,"stop":699.14315,"ratchet":718.84315,"target_n":1255,"p10":-9.539684029560664,"median":4.55227208237059,"rank":2,"qty":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More SPY Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 18.489062524223687
Core trend fractional 2026-09-13 00:05
Measured Sep13 00UTC. {"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1579,"close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"above":true,"p90":10.842338318374644,"stop":753.38428,"target":847.1569075335055,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0}. ETF SIP adjustment=all; crypto completed Sep12 UTC. Return uses252/365 intervals, SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR; P90 rolling60 returns endpoints last5years. Proposed not executed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More Flat book and actual collector completion audit = 0
Convex events 2026-09-13 00:05
query_trades[] confirms no fund positions, orders or closed outcomes to infer win rate/slippage. Currentfund102.12/account850.99. Actual latest END192Sep12 23:16:21.179403,19921:16:47.202863,21021:16:50.191969,23020:46:19.544103,23520:46:18.538179; all200/no pagination and complete receipts. Later192receipt resolves earlier08UTC uncertainty without claiming missing08run recovered. Fiveactivejobs cover next02UTC research; no replacement required.
convex query_trades/list_jobs and notes2789/2775/2773/2765/2764, retrieved2026-09-13 00:03UTC
More SPY Completed daily momentum, ATR and five-year target distribution = 18.489062524223687
Core trend 2026-09-13 00:05
Collected Sep13 00:05UTC. Primary Alpaca bars via venue; equities SIP adjustment=all through Sep11,crypto through Sep12; Sep13 endpoint bar excluded. Return percent uses252/365 lag; ATR simple mean20 true ranges; P90 signed60bar returns endpoints since2021-09-13, warmup2021-06-01. {"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1327,"close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"above":true,"p90":10.842338318374644,"target":847.1569075335055,"stop":753.38428,"ratchet":767.89428,"target_n":1255,"p10":-5.981266074905484,"median":3.8973230656399016,"rank":5,"qty":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More NHY.OL R91300 Alunorte ramp supersedes persistent 50 percent assumption = 110000
Supply chain 2026-09-13 00:05
Aug13 issuer: ANP self-importer approval and temporary CELBA terminal-access agreement permit ramp toward full capacity. Estimated lost output100000–120000t, midpoint110000 measured arithmetic; Q3 impact75–100mUSD retained, includes expensive gas. Not proof full output achievedSep12. Aug11original had50%production: https://www.hydro.com/en/global/media/news/2026/alunorte-reduces-alumina-production-on-natural-gas-supply-disruptions/ . Same issuer one source cluster; direct borrower/customer to supplier-event, management estimates biased toward successful recovery.
https://www.hydro.com/en/global/media/news/2026/alunorte-ramps-up-alumina-production/
More