Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
FRO R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 49.21
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
{"symbol":"FRO","N":1682,"date":"2026-09-11","close":49.21,"prior20":48.4,"sma50":40.845800000000004,"adr20":1.3495550000000016,"atr20":1.5460550000000013,"entry":true,"return20_pct":21.446199407699893,"vol60_pct":45.53772682254158,"gap_min_pct":-14.43183931560349}; collectedSep13,2020Jan2–2026Sep11, completedSIPall. prior20 excludescurrentclose; ADR meanhighlow, ATR includesgaps. Min gap historical2020+ not probability or futurebound. Full table replaces placeholder26560. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
CNQ R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 50.07
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
{"symbol":"CNQ","N":1682,"date":"2026-09-11","close":50.07,"prior20":51.33,"sma50":46.4478,"adr20":1.049,"atr20":1.2165000000000006,"entry":false,"return20_pct":6.170483460559795,"vol60_pct":31.439774310674984,"gap_min_pct":-26.939897538423086}; collectedSep13,2020Jan2–2026Sep11, completedSIPall. prior20 excludescurrentclose; ADR meanhighlow, ATR includesgaps. Min gap historical2020+ not probability or futurebound. Full table replaces placeholder26560. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CNQ&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AA R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 48.26
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
{"symbol":"AA","N":1682,"date":"2026-09-11","close":48.26,"prior20":51.85,"sma50":48.526,"adr20":1.9549500000000009,"atr20":2.1931900000000004,"entry":false,"return20_pct":-2.6819923371647625,"vol60_pct":49.47756252203293,"gap_min_pct":-13.246514075243365}; collectedSep13,2020Jan2–2026Sep11, completedSIPall. prior20 excludescurrentclose; ADR meanhighlow, ATR includesgaps. Min gap historical2020+ not probability or futurebound. Full table replaces placeholder26560. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
XLE R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 65.14
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
{"symbol":"XLE","N":1682,"date":"2026-09-11","close":65.14,"prior20":65.31,"sma50":60.1392,"adr20":1.0219749999999999,"atr20":1.1464750000000006,"entry":false,"return20_pct":6.681952178185391,"vol60_pct":20.616197036231906,"gap_min_pct":-17.516902274124156}; collectedSep13,2020Jan2–2026Sep11, completedSIPall. prior20 excludescurrentclose; ADR meanhighlow, ATR includesgaps. Min gap historical2020+ not probability or futurebound. Full table replaces placeholder26560. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
STNG R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 84.52
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
{"symbol":"STNG","N":1682,"date":"2026-09-11","close":84.52,"prior20":84.51,"sma50":77.9266,"adr20":2.0018450000000008,"atr20":2.122850000000001,"entry":true,"return20_pct":8.23408887181456,"vol60_pct":35.0297710440498,"gap_min_pct":-10.869565217391308}; collectedSep13,2020Jan2–2026Sep11, completedSIPall. prior20 excludescurrentclose; ADR meanhighlow, ATR includesgaps. Min gap historical2020+ not probability or futurebound. Full table replaces placeholder26560. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=STNG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
SPY R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 764.29
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
{"symbol":"SPY","N":1682,"date":"2026-09-11","close":764.29,"prior20":777.88,"sma50":758.6164000000001,"adr20":4.240609999999992,"atr20":5.452859999999982,"entry":false,"return20_pct":-1.74705610119813,"vol60_pct":11.889880651750854,"gap_min_pct":-10.739808348221535}; collectedSep13,2020Jan2–2026Sep11, completedSIPall. prior20 excludescurrentclose; ADR meanhighlow, ATR includesgaps. Min gap historical2020+ not probability or futurebound. Full table replaces placeholder26560. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
C91300 collector replacement local validation = 6
Crypto majors2026-09-13 00:15
Localnew247quotes00:10:44UTC six/10fresh:BTC77262.2/77283.7age41s,ETH2526.03/2526.567age41s,SOL101.7/101.774age448s stale;USDT.99895/1.001age10740s stale. WatchedBTCbalances598.50192119/3601.47207156;Liquidtip4054822age95s;72recenttx0controlledinputs;independentexplorertimeout. Funding00:10:03BTC27479.803/ETH639913.07/SOL2740849.85coinOI;forecast.4962/.9968/.2396bp,settled.497/1/.2761bp. Issuersupplyunchanged. New7volatilewatchSep12 23UTC allfalse,ETHoldpullbackonly. LocalENDallthree; acceptedjobs247248249withoutremoteproof. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest
C91300 CLI diagnostic full summary = 67
Crypto majors2026-09-13 00:15
RunSep13~00:04UTC;BTC982bars return46.4607511532%,buyhold75.6331040807%,DD14.6924283918%,win34.328358209%,avgtrade.6443234598%,N67;ETH982bars return41.5219262747%,buyhold12.6846910117%,DD24.9432564043%,win31.4814814815%,avgtrade.7762240372%,N54;SOL749bars return72.151727352%,buyhold-35.3023847377%,DD18.7953943766%,win52.7777777778%,avgtrade1.6935012342%,N36. Grosssame-close,noholdout,partiallatestdaily;not executablelivepolicy. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 981
CNQ R91300 corrected CNQ annual buyer concentration = 2
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:14
Supersedes concentration gap in26559: full2025annual financial-note creditrisk passage confirms2customers (2024one,2023three), major investmentgrade internationalenergycompanies, each>10%annualsales. Receivables expectedcreditloss~2%. Buyer identities and individualshares unspecified. Geography outsideMiddleEast does not eliminate energybuyer concentration; recordoriginal rather than assume diversification. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm
BB Complete twenty-contract catalog table; compact retry = 20
Convex events2026-09-13 00:14
Rows OCCsymbol,close,closedate,OI; OI_date2026-09-10 for all. American multiplier100,active/tradable; notasks. [["BB261002C00006500",1.32,"2026-09-10",76],["BB261002C00007000",0.93,"2026-09-11",208],["BB261002C00007500",0.65,"2026-09-11",217],["BB261002C00008000",0.45,"2026-09-11",2520],["BB261002C00008500",0.27,"2026-09-11",724],["BB261002P00006500",0.15,"2026-09-11",3493],["BB261002P00007000",0.25,"2026-09-11",443],["BB261002P00007500",0.41,"2026-09-11",520],["BB261002P00008000",0.82,"2026-09-10",2829],["BB261002P00008500",1.09,"2026-09-11",1027],["BB261009C00006500",1.38,"2026-09-04",1],["BB261009C00007000",0.99,"2026-09-11",35],["BB261009C00007500",0.71,"2026-09-11",79],["BB261009C00008000",0.45,"2026-09-11",475],["BB261009C00008500",0.35,"2026-09-11",143],["BB261009P00006500",0.18,"2026-09-08",5],["BB261009P00007000",0.35,"2026-09-10",84],["BB261009P00007500",0.57,"2026-09-10",370],["BB261009P00008000",0.8,"2026-09-11",34],["BB261009P00008500",1.05,"2026-09-09",321]] option_contracts BB retrievedSep13; October2–9 strikes6.5–8.5; no next page
SFIX One-cent cost stress and hypothetical 3R intrinsic target requirements = 1
Convex events2026-09-13 00:13
AtS2.95Oct16P2.5 .12+.05costrequires21.016949%,2/10; .13+.05requires21.355932%,1/10. Hypothetical.48puttarget4xpremium requires31.525424%fall,1/10;2.00calltarget4x.50 requires52.542373%rise,0/10 versusmax44.347826%. These intrinsic thresholds are not actual option target/exit odds; noorderlevelsadopted. Premium normal25.5297/conviction42.5495/absolute51.0594; atmost3contractspositions butfund102.12alsobinds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts SFIX ; research/study.py
R91300 six-name completed SIP indicator table = 1682
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:13
{} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CNQ,FRO,STNG,AA,SPY,XLE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
CNQ R91300 CNQ heavy-oil and transport exposure annual risks = 27
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:13
Mar26 2026 40F includes2025AIF:27%2025BOE production primaryheavy/PelicanLake/bitumen; quality differentials and transport constraints can discountCanadianprices frominternational. Risks tariffs, third-party facilities, price declines leaving unused longtermtransport commitments. Customercredit concentrated in energyindustry; no verified quantified singlebuyer/supplier percentage from reviewed passages. Do not label geographically separate production independent of oil-demand beta. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm
CNQ R91300 CNQ sulphur and operating bottleneck cash = 270
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:13
Aug6 Q2issuer CADm: sulphur netrevenue270/H1450; management estimates30%Canada and2%worldsulphur supply. Record oilsands mining625000bpd,106%upgraderutilization, operatingcost22.19CAD/bbl, SCO-WTI premium8.37USD/bbl, approximate78CAD/bbl segmentnetback. These are different units and historicalQ2 conditions; netrevenue is not cashreceipt/FCF. New this research, not newly published today. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000043/a06302026q2pressrelease.htm
CNQ R91300 CNQ cash conversion baseline CAD millions = 4418
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:13
Aug6 issuer Q2June30 financials C$million: OCF6823 less net PPE2380 and E&E25=4418 simpleFCF; H1OCF10105 less4472/111=5522. Q2earnings4503, dilutedEPS2.15CAD, cash2618, weightedbasicshares2077894thousand. Capital additions include acquisition netexpenditures and are not pure maintenance; simpleFCF differs issuer adjustedfunds-flow/distributionFCF. Cash historical not September flow. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000043/a06302026q2fs.htm
AA R91300 AA self-consumption and supplier-risk countercase = 34
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:10
Feb26 2026 10K FY2025: own smelters34% alumina shipments; substantially all manufacturing raw materials available from more than one supplier. Risks include interrupted energy, expiring uncompetitive power contracts and curtailment. Thus not pure external-alumina price leverage or demonstrated single-source input. Full680651-character text read viaNode; CLI RiskFactors extraction returned only26-character table-of-contents heading, rejected as incomplete. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm
FRO R91300 FRO annual customer concentration and war risk = 0
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:10
Mar27 2026 annual report covers2025: no customer>=10% consolidated revenue for2023–25. Charterers can own competing fleets; intense competition. War-risk mutual-club insurance exists but drydock loss/cost can remain uncovered and available repair space limited. No disclosed exclusive supply bottleneck established. Full366657-character annual read via Node after60kCLI truncated before risks; no concentration inferred from truncated excerpt. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000091957426001955/d12130957_6-k.htm
C91300 remote collector delivery cadence audit = 26.85867361111111
Crypto majors2026-09-13 00:10
{"quotes":{"N":25,"start":"2026-09-12T13:02:10.758Z","end":"2026-09-12T23:46:57.326Z","min":15.001616666666667,"max":30.570033333333335,"mean":26.865672222222226,"over20":19},"signals":{"N":25,"start":"2026-09-12T13:01:50.642Z","end":"2026-09-12T23:46:27.132Z","min":15.051633333333333,"max":30.26225,"mean":26.85867361111111,"over20":19},"funding":{"N":9,"start":"2026-09-12T14:01:22.725Z","end":"2026-09-12T23:01:33.870Z","min":59.7445,"max":75.2958,"mean":67.52321875,"over20":8}} Last60note sample queriedSep13 00:09UTC. All latest receipt END present, but new00:01run not yetreturned; expected cadence differs from realized delivery. Max30.57min quotes/30.26signals/75.30funding. No claim of exact15minute ordercoverage. Newlocaltests distinct fromremoteproof. query_research fund=crypto notes2798–2694; list_jobs fund=crypto jobs244–246
FRO R91300 FRO operating cash less vessel investment = 248.662
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:10
Aug28 unaudited Q2 financials, USDm: OCF579.487 less newbuild/vessel/equipment additions330.825=>248.662 simpleFCF; H1 OCF961.984 less653.868=>308.116. Vessel sale receiptsQ2 138.590/H1 965.880 separate. Shares222622889, Q2 equity3154.678m. Not recurring distributable cash forecast: growth capex and asset turnover distort single-quarterFCF. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000091957426005942/p15060813_ex-1.htm
SFIX Primary future date and option vintage / hard-size constraints = 12
Convex events2026-09-13 00:09
Sep2issuer 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026';17ETcall. Oct16expiry23daysafter, defaultSep22RTHexit. Sep11S2.95; Oct16P2.5 .12Sep11one100contracttrade, C2.5 .50Sep10one4contracttrade; noSep11callbar, no pagination. Catalogonlytwolegs inOct1–16K2–3.5. Put12USD1.4101235%equity; call50USD5.8755097%, above42.5495convictioncap thoughunder51.0594absolute. Spotminusstrike.45=45USDintrinsic exceedsconvictioncap evenzeroextrinsic; nofeasible<=.425495callatunchangedspot understandardAmericanbounds. P.13+.05wouldloseborderlineMar2024hit. Marketclosed, noexecutablequotes. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; option_contracts SFIX ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
SFIX Financial cash bridge and explicitly stale valuation proxy = 15.445
Convex events2026-09-13 00:09
{"nine_month_OCF_m":30.009,"nine_month_capex_m":14.564,"nine_month_FCF_m":15.445,"nine_month_FCF_less_SBC_m":-21.595,"FCF_margin_pct":1.5087413219289616,"OCF_less_AP_increase_m":13.105,"cash_investments_change_m":-13.347000000000008,"lease_liabilities_m":74.531,"proxy_marketcap_m":399.23619090000005,"proxy_EV_exleases_m":169.83619090000005,"proxy_EV_to_FY_EBITDA_mid":3.363092889108912,"inventory_growth_pct":11.693841344935363,"revenue_9m_growth_pct":7.087967496003955} June10report covers9mendedMay2. Mayweightedshares135.334302m timesSep11S2.95 is onlymarketcap proxy, notcurrentshares. FCFlessSBC isowner-costsensitivity, notcashflow. InventorygrowthAug2-May2notYoY, notdirectlyperiodcomparabletoninemonthYoYsalesgrowth. APbuildfinancesworkingcapital; nodouble-count claim. Q4forecastrevenue322–327m/EBITDA7–10m; cash229.4m,nodebt underminesdistressput. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
SFIX SFIX momentum CLI diagnostic = 41.38322359171423
Convex events2026-09-13 00:09
node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols SFIX --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 1000;685bars,32trades,return41.383224%,drawdown55.802626%,win28.125%,buyhold-24.777637%. Unsplit stock diagnostic not dated-event optionedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts SFIX ; research/study.py Sep13
SFIX Corrected event stock proxy full cost sweep
Convex events2026-09-13 00:09
[{"lag":2,"slippage":0.001,"phase":"train","return":-4.607735950580491,"drawdown":16.397681255696728,"win_rate":25,"sample":8},{"lag":2,"slippage":0.001,"phase":"holdout","return":15.304853583711633,"drawdown":1.290611475409853,"win_rate":100,"sample":2},{"lag":2,"slippage":0.003,"phase":"train","return":-7.611977199911962,"drawdown":18.053125183567953,"win_rate":25,"sample":8},{"lag":2,"slippage":0.003,"phase":"holdout","return":14.386090725249664,"drawdown":1.4882278688524764,"win_rate":100,"sample":2},{"lag":3,"slippage":0.001,"phase":"train","return":-5.782944412005542,"drawdown":20.708646741393444,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":8},{"lag":3,"slippage":0.001,"phase":"holdout","return":7.9309036706861775,"drawdown":6.743982340516941,"win_rate":50,"sample":2},{"lag":3,"slippage":0.003,"phase":"train","return":-8.75017417228645,"drawdown":22.278727467098104,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":8},{"lag":3,"slippage":0.003,"phase":"holdout","return":7.070897326713248,"drawdown":6.929936513317503,"win_rate":50,"sample":2},{"lag":5,"slippage":0.001,"phase":"train","return":14.174753588512157,"drawdown":14.47587396536587,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":8},{"lag":5,"slippage":0.001,"phase":"holdout","return":9.472963631986762,"drawdown":6.811989100817417,"win_rate":100,"sample":2},{"lag":5,"slippage":0.003,"phase":"train","return":10.57898502403848,"drawdown":15.327195600646192,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":8},{"lag":5,"slippage":0.003,"phase":"holdout","return":8.600669969883414,"drawdown":6.811989100817451,"win_rate":100,"sample":2}] vectorbt actualopenT-lag tocloseT-1; first8throughDec2025train,last2Mar/Jun2026holdout retained fromoldstudy. Fees10bp/side,slippage10/30bp per side; stockproxy not optionPnL; previouslyseenholdout notfreshOOS. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts SFIX ; research/study.py Sep13
SFIX Corrected ten-event signed strike coverage = 20
Convex events2026-09-13 00:09
[{"type":"put","strike":2.5,"premium":0.12,"hurdle_pct":21.01694915254238,"hits":2,"N":10,"median_abs_pct":16.578014184397166,"coverage_Wilson95_pct":[5.6680947980693315,50.98431532792765],"mean_intrinsic_x_premium":0.7677350876434291,"max_intrinsic_x":5.95222222222222,"mean_net_allin_R":-0.4580693498987559,"first8_hits":2,"last2_hits":0,"premium_ceiling_40pct":-0.18898747390396692,"MC":{"paths":20000,"opportunities":20,"cash_p05_p50_p95":[0.12000000000000455,3.9373975090814266,102.64406417574796],"loss_probability_pct":94.795,"median_drawdown_pct":96.20106670601925,"mean_tickets":10.86275},"halfKelly_intrinsic_scenario":0},{"type":"call","strike":2.5,"premium":0.5,"hurdle_pct":3.3898305084745637,"hits":4,"N":10,"median_abs_pct":16.578014184397166,"coverage_Wilson95_pct":[16.817758120350966,68.73304525498135],"mean_intrinsic_x_premium":1.1092963628419448,"max_intrinsic_x":3.516521739130436,"mean_net_allin_R":0.008451238947222573,"first8_hits":3,"last2_hits":1}] Plus mean_event_pct=0.42440579334782397 bootstrap95=[-14.066460936737613,15.232436313833905] NumPyseed913 iid 20000samples; .05/share totalcost assumption. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts SFIX ; research/study.py Sep13
SFIX September11 technical and regression measurements = 2.95
Convex events2026-09-13 00:09
{"S":2.95,"SMA20":3.1572500000000003,"SMA50":3.5795999999999997,"RSI14":35.386979109503685,"ATR14":0.14636528262727228,"RV20_pct":42.61082386968324,"beta60":0.7869453930352339,"corr60":0.15394277245758153,"prior20low":2.82,"prior20high":3.71} WilderEWM14 RSI/ATR; logreturns60OLSbeta/correlationSPY descriptive only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts SFIX ; research/study.py Sep13
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