TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_True_L20_holdout_0.0006 = 71.58242544660118
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":71.58242544660118,"drawdown_pct":14.758470803522162,"win_rate":70,"sample":10,"mean_pct":6.0138454487611686,"avg_win_pct":11.661029679010808,"avg_loss_pct":-7.162917755154659,"halfKelly":0.25786082422831613,"partial":6,"missing_checks":11,"trades_missing":3,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_True_L20_train_0.0016 = -10.906390051642312
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":-10.906390051642312,"drawdown_pct":64.86861057258156,"win_rate":41.37931034482759,"sample":29,"mean_pct":0.4662762728441721,"avg_win_pct":14.577298233356464,"avg_loss_pct":-9.494445111046858,"halfKelly":0.015993233635613474,"partial":11,"missing_checks":107,"trades_missing":14,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_True_L20_train_0.0006 = -5.586159583417416
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":-5.586159583417416,"drawdown_pct":64.30198682586128,"win_rate":41.37931034482759,"sample":29,"mean_pct":0.6674101100774836,"avg_win_pct":14.80668238601396,"avg_loss_pct":-9.3132526729365,"halfKelly":0.022537462906204536,"partial":11,"missing_checks":107,"trades_missing":14,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_True_L10_holdout_0.0016 = 65.2335649460654
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":65.2335649460654,"drawdown_pct":20.75044731442356,"win_rate":60,"sample":15,"mean_pct":3.9500037710358544,"avg_win_pct":11.645739361276945,"avg_loss_pct":-7.593599614325782,"halfKelly":0.16959008133781295,"partial":5,"missing_checks":12,"trades_missing":3,"endpoint":1}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_True_L10_holdout_0.0006 = 70.26568169361845
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":70.26568169361845,"drawdown_pct":20.43281391629357,"win_rate":60,"sample":15,"mean_pct":4.158112042931031,"avg_win_pct":11.869254522797396,"avg_loss_pct":-7.408601676868519,"halfKelly":0.17516315093523788,"partial":5,"missing_checks":12,"trades_missing":3,"endpoint":1}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_True_L10_train_0.0016 = 32.35269580623552
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":32.35269580623552,"drawdown_pct":67.41213908736012,"win_rate":46.875,"sample":32,"mean_pct":1.9099570532120833,"avg_win_pct":15.239549002274428,"avg_loss_pct":-9.851447607725278,"halfKelly":0.06266448741124267,"partial":11,"missing_checks":196,"trades_missing":14,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_True_L10_train_0.0006 = 41.1002127375832
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":41.1002127375832,"drawdown_pct":66.82024589200381,"win_rate":46.875,"sample":32,"mean_pct":2.113981144427799,"avg_win_pct":15.470258983292476,"avg_loss_pct":-9.670969889864567,"halfKelly":0.0683240386185793,"partial":11,"missing_checks":196,"trades_missing":14,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_False_L20_holdout_0.0016 = 57.201586876475695
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":57.201586876475695,"drawdown_pct":15.42569022653214,"win_rate":60,"sample":10,"mean_pct":5.1885924636438245,"avg_win_pct":13.32804728286742,"avg_loss_pct":-7.020589765191571,"halfKelly":0.19464938687280603,"partial":0,"missing_checks":11,"trades_missing":3,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_False_L20_holdout_0.0006 = 60.37727306055889
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":60.37727306055889,"drawdown_pct":14.758470803522139,"win_rate":60,"sample":10,"mean_pct":5.3991803944428725,"avg_win_pct":13.55493043074341,"avg_loss_pct":-6.834444660007932,"halfKelly":0.19915928089889717,"partial":0,"missing_checks":11,"trades_missing":3,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_False_L20_train_0.0016 = -12.759306856913977
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":-12.759306856913977,"drawdown_pct":70.5825896976696,"win_rate":31.03448275862069,"sample":29,"mean_pct":0.6548787376451026,"avg_win_pct":22.088031175133214,"avg_loss_pct":-8.990039859224549,"halfKelly":0.014824289508934746,"partial":0,"missing_checks":108,"trades_missing":14,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path m15_False_L20_train_0.0006 = -7.549723431144761
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":-7.549723431144761,"drawdown_pct":70.10812502331474,"win_rate":31.03448275862069,"sample":29,"mean_pct":0.8563901576739998,"avg_win_pct":22.33245184146533,"avg_loss_pct":-8.807837600032096,"halfKelly":0.019173670758441202,"partial":0,"missing_checks":108,"trades_missing":14,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path daily_False_L20_holdout_0.0016 = 55.62507696402639
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":55.62507696402639,"drawdown_pct":19.038335846390765,"win_rate":54.54545454545454,"sample":11,"mean_pct":4.687073072096452,"avg_win_pct":14.100899066515806,"avg_loss_pct":-6.609518121206774,"halfKelly":0.1661976676092392,"partial":0,"missing_checks":0,"trades_missing":0,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path daily_False_L20_holdout_0.0006 = 59.08677142578305
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":59.08677142578305,"drawdown_pct":18.71384027976719,"win_rate":54.54545454545454,"sample":11,"mean_pct":4.8966569593157905,"avg_win_pct":14.32932946637151,"avg_loss_pct":-6.422550049151073,"halfKelly":0.1708613431915083,"partial":0,"missing_checks":0,"trades_missing":0,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path daily_False_L20_train_0.0016 = -13.167339159792713
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":-13.167339159792713,"drawdown_pct":69.27441553628378,"win_rate":30.303030303030305,"sample":33,"mean_pct":0.5647444482408144,"avg_win_pct":21.291161961642135,"avg_loss_pct":-8.446741427151064,"halfKelly":0.013262414922639049,"partial":0,"missing_checks":0,"trades_missing":0,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More TEN R91304 raw-price fixed-path daily_False_L20_train_0.0006 = -7.2430251357442526
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:10
{"return_pct":-7.2430251357442526,"drawdown_pct":68.77885170938278,"win_rate":30.303030303030305,"sample":33,"mean_pct":0.7660754191064002,"avg_win_pct":21.533987293015812,"avg_loss_pct":-8.263451482593345,"halfKelly":0.017787588723869624,"partial":0,"missing_checks":0,"trades_missing":0,"endpoint":0}; train2020-24,knownholdout2025-Sep11. Splitnormalized prices, no cash dividend credit; adjusted entry signal, split-only execution. RTH calendar-filtered15min opens; managed variant assumes+2Rquarter/BE eachsample, actual manager less frequent so NOT live replication. Drawdown daily-mark approximation, not intraday. Vectorbtlongonly compounded return assertion passed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&feed=sip
More CRCL C91304 issuer Q2 economics and launch premises = 701000000
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:09
Issuer primary August5 report for June30quarter: USDC circulation73.3bn +19%YoY; volume14.8trn +151%; revenue/reserve income701m +7%; reserve income668m +5%, other revenue34m +41%, distribution/transaction/other costs412m +1%, average circulation+25%, reserve return-66bp, adjusted EBITDA143m+8%, NI48m. Rounded668+34 versus701 not silently corrected. ArcSep16scheduled, not guaranteed. Figures used in analysis3112; no equity or coin cash capture assumed.
https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results
More SFIX R91304 hypothetical joint risk coverage Kelly grid S=2.9 = 2.9
Convex events 2026-09-13 04:09
[] Centgrid .01–.42, fullpremium<=.255297,Americanintrinsicfloor,costedcoverage>=4/10,100*(p+.05)<=empiricalhalfKelly*850.99. All hypothetical, not executable or fairvalue estimates. Targethits usesintrinsic>=4p only; quarterprobe constraint not enforced inthisgrid. Noorder.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/study.py
SFIX R91304 hypothetical joint risk coverage Kelly grid S=2.8 = 2.8
Convex events 2026-09-13 04:09
[] Centgrid .01–.42, fullpremium<=.255297,Americanintrinsicfloor,costedcoverage>=4/10,100*(p+.05)<=empiricalhalfKelly*850.99. All hypothetical, not executable or fairvalue estimates. Targethits usesintrinsic>=4p only; quarterprobe constraint not enforced inthisgrid. Noorder.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/study.py
SFIX R91304 hypothetical joint risk coverage Kelly grid S=2.75 = 2.75
Convex events 2026-09-13 04:08
[{"p":0.25,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":68.381381,"mean_R":0.341312}] Centgrid .01–.42, fullpremium<=.255297,Americanintrinsicfloor,costedcoverage>=4/10,100*(p+.05)<=empiricalhalfKelly*850.99. All hypothetical, not executable or fairvalue estimates. Targethits usesintrinsic>=4p only; quarterprobe constraint not enforced inthisgrid. Noorder.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/study.py
More SFIX R91304 hypothetical joint risk coverage Kelly grid S=2.7 = 2.7
Convex events 2026-09-13 04:08
[{"p":0.2,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":78.674239,"mean_R":0.471218},{"p":0.21,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":72.247943,"mean_R":0.414633},{"p":0.22,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":65.785156,"mean_R":0.362239},{"p":0.23,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":59.282173,"mean_R":0.313588},{"p":0.24,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":52.735615,"mean_R":0.268292},{"p":0.25,"hits":4,"target_hits":1,"Kelly_dollars":46.142366,"mean_R":0.226015}] Centgrid .01–.42, fullpremium<=.255297,Americanintrinsicfloor,costedcoverage>=4/10,100*(p+.05)<=empiricalhalfKelly*850.99. All hypothetical, not executable or fairvalue estimates. Targethits usesintrinsic>=4p only; quarterprobe constraint not enforced inthisgrid. Noorder.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/study.py
More SFIX R91304 hypothetical joint risk coverage Kelly grid S=2.6 = 2.6
Convex events 2026-09-13 04:08
[{"p":0.1,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":101.216248,"mean_R":1.018425},{"p":0.11,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":95.005143,"mean_R":0.892273},{"p":0.12,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":88.749036,"mean_R":0.780963},{"p":0.13,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":82.445102,"mean_R":0.682021},{"p":0.14,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":76.088112,"mean_R":0.593493},{"p":0.15,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":69.675,"mean_R":0.513819},{"p":0.16,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":63.203019,"mean_R":0.441732},{"p":0.17,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":56.669821,"mean_R":0.376199},{"p":0.18,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":50.073322,"mean_R":0.316364},{"p":0.19,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":43.413014,"mean_R":0.261516},{"p":0.2,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":36.684377,"mean_R":0.211055},{"p":0.21,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":29.887407,"mean_R":0.164476}] Centgrid .01–.42, fullpremium<=.255297,Americanintrinsicfloor,costedcoverage>=4/10,100*(p+.05)<=empiricalhalfKelly*850.99. All hypothetical, not executable or fairvalue estimates. Targethits usesintrinsic>=4p only; quarterprobe constraint not enforced inthisgrid. Noorder.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/study.py
More SFIX R91304 hypothetical joint risk coverage Kelly grid S=2.5 = 2.5
Convex events 2026-09-13 04:08
[{"p":0.01,"hits":4,"target_hits":4,"Kelly_dollars":133.592272,"mean_R":3.14932},{"p":0.02,"hits":4,"target_hits":4,"Kelly_dollars":127.140197,"mean_R":2.55656},{"p":0.03,"hits":4,"target_hits":4,"Kelly_dollars":120.602829,"mean_R":2.11199},{"p":0.04,"hits":4,"target_hits":4,"Kelly_dollars":113.98525,"mean_R":1.766213},{"p":0.05,"hits":4,"target_hits":4,"Kelly_dollars":107.292199,"mean_R":1.489592},{"p":0.06,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":100.528181,"mean_R":1.263266},{"p":0.07,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":93.696266,"mean_R":1.07466},{"p":0.08,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":86.798465,"mean_R":0.915071},{"p":0.09,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":79.838767,"mean_R":0.77828},{"p":0.1,"hits":4,"target_hits":3,"Kelly_dollars":72.818162,"mean_R":0.659728},{"p":0.11,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":65.737649,"mean_R":0.555995},{"p":0.12,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":58.597586,"mean_R":0.464466},{"p":0.13,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":51.399135,"mean_R":0.383107},{"p":0.14,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":44.138603,"mean_R":0.310312},{"p":0.15,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":36.816841,"mean_R":0.244796},{"p":0.16,"hits":4,"target_hits":2,"Kelly_dollars":29.431425,"mean_R":0.18552}] Centgrid .01–.42, fullpremium<=.255297,Americanintrinsicfloor,costedcoverage>=4/10,100*(p+.05)<=empiricalhalfKelly*850.99. All hypothetical, not executable or fairvalue estimates. Targethits usesintrinsic>=4p only; quarterprobe constraint not enforced inthisgrid. Noorder.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/study.py
More USDC/USD C91304 same Sep10 issuer/aggregator discrepancy = 485695863
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:08
Circle74.06bn vs same-date aggregator74545695863; .655814%gap. Different dates alone cannot explain; intraday cutoffs/coverage/definitions unresolved.
https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
HYPE/USD C91304 Hyperliquid L1 USDC circulation and seven-day change = -65617778.859892845
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:08
{"latest":{"date":1789257600,"circulating":{"peggedUSD":6802385708.140107},"minted":{"peggedUSD":6376511199.406622},"unreleased":{"peggedUSD":0},"bridgedTo":{"peggedUSD":425874508.733485,"bridges":{"not-found":{"not-found":{"amount":425874508.733485}}}}},"net7":-65617778.859892845} USD-pegged token units; Sep13 snapshot. Not proof of token buying or identified transfers.
https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
More SOL/USD C91304 Solana USDC circulation and seven-day change = 4231787.471904755
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:08
{"latest":{"date":1789257600,"circulating":{"peggedUSD":7308024264.471905},"minted":{"peggedUSD":8257108390.378656},"unreleased":{"peggedUSD":948334952.4433749},"bridgedTo":{"bridges":{"allbridge":{"Celo":{"amount":3962.399423882},"Fantom":{"amount":6543.284986949},"Polygon":{"amount":187421.324417},"BSC":{"amount":17693.240746412},"Ethereum":{"amount":71967.800085264},"Avalanche":{"amount":43196.656090643}},"wormhole":{"BSC":{"amount":55885.56170241},"Avalanche":{"amount":480.616962},"Polygon":{"amount":24646.759224},"Ethereum":{"amount":224701.28494}}},"peggedUSD":636498.92857856}},"net7":4231787.471904755} USD-pegged token units; Sep13 snapshot. Not proof of token buying or identified transfers.
https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
More