Notes

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":7,"period":"train","slip":0.001,"return_pct":37.14102896745993,"drawdown_pct":40.635227978524625,"win_pct":30,"n":10,"mean_trade_pct":4.028100417735462,"half_kelly":2.9012754917879597,"exposure_pct":57.72190867111339,"buyhold_pct":30.106603470859604,"avg_win_pct":21.10272812958495,"avg_loss_pct":3.2895971730571754} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":2,"period":"holdout","slip":0.003,"return_pct":2.26491192663768,"drawdown_pct":6.224114883249998,"win_pct":100,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":2.270574206454275,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":5.883314267037098,"buyhold_pct":-14.878185268963284,"avg_win_pct":2.270574206454275,"avg_loss_pct":0} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":2,"period":"holdout","slip":0.001,"return_pct":2.6747925652634024,"drawdown_pct":6.224114883250009,"win_pct":100,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":2.6814795466765564,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":5.883314267037098,"buyhold_pct":-14.878185268963284,"avg_win_pct":2.6814795466765564,"avg_loss_pct":0} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":2,"period":"train","slip":0.003,"return_pct":31.763629467259634,"drawdown_pct":41.460781803823956,"win_pct":30,"n":10,"mean_trade_pct":3.6118193293979215,"half_kelly":2.382260966224206,"exposure_pct":57.72190867111339,"buyhold_pct":30.106603470859604,"avg_win_pct":20.61828465069394,"avg_loss_pct":3.676665808300373} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":2,"period":"train","slip":0.001,"return_pct":37.14102896745993,"drawdown_pct":40.635227978524625,"win_pct":30,"n":10,"mean_trade_pct":4.028100417735462,"half_kelly":2.9012754917879597,"exposure_pct":57.72190867111339,"buyhold_pct":30.106603470859604,"avg_win_pct":21.10272812958495,"avg_loss_pct":3.2895971730571754} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":1,"period":"holdout","slip":0.003,"return_pct":-0.5752033086261861,"drawdown_pct":6.224114883249965,"win_pct":0,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":-0.5766413168977547,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":6.275535218172903,"buyhold_pct":-14.878185268963284,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":0.5766413168977547} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":1,"period":"holdout","slip":0.001,"return_pct":-0.17670593161452075,"drawdown_pct":6.224114883249998,"win_pct":0,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":-0.17714769644355316,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":6.275535218172903,"buyhold_pct":-14.878185268963284,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":0.17714769644355316} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":1,"period":"train","slip":0.003,"return_pct":31.763629467259634,"drawdown_pct":41.460781803823956,"win_pct":30,"n":10,"mean_trade_pct":3.6118193293979215,"half_kelly":2.382260966224206,"exposure_pct":57.72190867111339,"buyhold_pct":30.106603470859604,"avg_win_pct":20.61828465069394,"avg_loss_pct":3.676665808300373} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":1,"period":"train","slip":0.001,"return_pct":37.14102896745993,"drawdown_pct":40.635227978524625,"win_pct":30,"n":10,"mean_trade_pct":4.028100417735462,"half_kelly":2.9012754917879597,"exposure_pct":57.72190867111339,"buyhold_pct":30.106603470859604,"avg_win_pct":21.10272812958495,"avg_loss_pct":3.2895971730571754} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC","lag":7,"period":"holdout","slip":0.003,"return_pct":-0.5803925048128065,"drawdown_pct":6.125950211247622,"win_pct":50,"n":2,"mean_trade_pct":-0.2256449514928545,"half_kelly":-0.8620301356435807,"exposure_pct":5.491093315901291,"buyhold_pct":-14.878185268963284,"avg_win_pct":3.399118813060589,"avg_loss_pct":3.850408716046298} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"N":10,"mean_pct":6.0138454487611686,"IID_CI95_pct":[-0.1930783078353961,11.983453800237022],"block3_CI95_pct":[1.1565697922817697,10.980763991357453],"P05_P50_P95_pct":[-8.053478776971206,8.402702516453608,18.19837275214087]}; seed91304, fixedrawmanagedpaper. Bootstrap/simulationconditionalmodel outputs, notforecast; stressassumes5%tradechanceof30%gap, notobservedfrequency. Actualsize0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"halfKelly_risk":0.022537462906204536,"R_pct":5.192379958246347,"gap_full_notional":85.099,"quarter_notional":21.27475,"shares_at47_9":0.44414926931106474,"stop":45.41285,"target":55.36145}; seed91304, fixedrawmanagedpaper. Bootstrap/simulationconditionalmodel outputs, notforecast; stressassumes5%tradechanceof30%gap, notobservedfrequency. Actualsize0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC","lag":7,"period":"holdout","slip":0.001,"return_pct":0.2181577576386502,"drawdown_pct":5.561388096742348,"win_pct":50,"n":2,"mean_trade_pct":0.1752554722499293,"half_kelly":0.6631566423816828,"exposure_pct":5.491093315901291,"buyhold_pct":-14.878185268963284,"avg_win_pct":3.814547391755959,"avg_loss_pct":3.4640364472561003} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"paths":20000,"trades":20,"allocation_pct":2.5,"return_P05_P50_P95_pct":[-3.0561443439370617,-0.4951192535856186,2.401927587792095],"loss_odds_pct":61.55500000000001,"DD95_pct":3.512793545025467}; seed91304, fixedrawmanagedpaper. Bootstrap/simulationconditionalmodel outputs, notforecast; stressassumes5%tradechanceof30%gap, notobservedfrequency. Actualsize0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"paths":20000,"trades":20,"allocation_pct":2.5,"return_P05_P50_P95_pct":[-2.054831115395713,0.25727986644485945,3.0287834972138],"loss_odds_pct":43.335,"DD95_pct":2.5778943002513395}; seed91304, fixedrawmanagedpaper. Bootstrap/simulationconditionalmodel outputs, notforecast; stressassumes5%tradechanceof30%gap, notobservedfrequency. Actualsize0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC","lag":7,"period":"train","slip":0.003,"return_pct":42.75542549076171,"drawdown_pct":39.40942531411282,"win_pct":30,"n":10,"mean_trade_pct":5.666310252824146,"half_kelly":1.581512687510365,"exposure_pct":51.84995154210136,"buyhold_pct":30.106603470859604,"avg_win_pct":31.96460877535071,"avg_loss_pct":5.604389113972952} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"N":29,"mean_pct":0.6674101100774836,"IID_CI95_pct":[-4.027612972876492,5.788505236283171],"block3_CI95_pct":[-3.528847164777429,5.132607093026194],"P05_P50_P95_pct":[-13.01716592393981,-6.713998098143503,28.163777057696187]}; seed91304, fixedrawmanagedpaper. Bootstrap/simulationconditionalmodel outputs, notforecast; stressassumes5%tradechanceof30%gap, notobservedfrequency. Actualsize0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Python arithmetic from dated observations27201–09,27216–17. Bookproxy usesJune equity andvessels, March30.127603mcommonshares, preferred liquidation287.32735m, NCIproxy50.13m=Dec43.529+H1income6.601 assumesnootherflows. Haircuts illustrative notappraisals. FY2025pre-growthcashOCF297.622-improvements3.5-preferred27-scheduleddebt184.1; drydockalreadyinOCF. AnnualizedH1EPSnotforecast. See3127/3128 for premises andlimitations. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166663/000119312526144027/d49235d20f.htm ; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC","lag":7,"period":"train","slip":0.001,"return_pct":48.581410679456326,"drawdown_pct":38.677955205179146,"win_pct":30,"n":10,"mean_trade_pct":6.090825798473384,"half_kelly":1.7936832504066127,"exposure_pct":51.84995154210136,"buyhold_pct":30.106603470859604,"avg_win_pct":32.4945286399409,"avg_loss_pct":5.225046847869839} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

Python arithmetic from dated observations27201–09,27216–17. Bookproxy usesJune equity andvessels, March30.127603mcommonshares, preferred liquidation287.32735m, NCIproxy50.13m=Dec43.529+H1income6.601 assumesnootherflows. Haircuts illustrative notappraisals. FY2025pre-growthcashOCF297.622-improvements3.5-preferred27-scheduleddebt184.1; drydockalreadyinOCF. AnnualizedH1EPSnotforecast. See3127/3128 for premises andlimitations. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166663/000119312526144027/d49235d20f.htm ; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html

Python arithmetic from dated observations27201–09,27216–17. Bookproxy usesJune equity andvessels, March30.127603mcommonshares, preferred liquidation287.32735m, NCIproxy50.13m=Dec43.529+H1income6.601 assumesnootherflows. Haircuts illustrative notappraisals. FY2025pre-growthcashOCF297.622-improvements3.5-preferred27-scheduleddebt184.1; drydockalreadyinOCF. AnnualizedH1EPSnotforecast. See3127/3128 for premises andlimitations. https://www.tenn.gr/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/TEN_Q2_2026.pdf

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC","lag":2,"period":"holdout","slip":0.003,"return_pct":2.8408126824157023,"drawdown_pct":6.462538339398771,"win_pct":100,"n":2,"mean_trade_pct":1.4177320654185654,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":7.452198071580324,"buyhold_pct":-14.878185268963284,"avg_win_pct":1.4177320654185654,"avg_loss_pct":0} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

Python arithmetic from dated observations27201–09,27216–17. Bookproxy usesJune equity andvessels, March30.127603mcommonshares, preferred liquidation287.32735m, NCIproxy50.13m=Dec43.529+H1income6.601 assumesnootherflows. Haircuts illustrative notappraisals. FY2025pre-growthcashOCF297.622-improvements3.5-preferred27-scheduleddebt184.1; drydockalreadyinOCF. AnnualizedH1EPSnotforecast. See3127/3128 for premises andlimitations. https://www.tenn.gr/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/TEN_Q2_2026.pdf

Python arithmetic from dated observations27201–09,27216–17. Bookproxy usesJune equity andvessels, March30.127603mcommonshares, preferred liquidation287.32735m, NCIproxy50.13m=Dec43.529+H1income6.601 assumesnootherflows. Haircuts illustrative notappraisals. FY2025pre-growthcashOCF297.622-improvements3.5-preferred27-scheduleddebt184.1; drydockalreadyinOCF. AnnualizedH1EPSnotforecast. See3127/3128 for premises andlimitations. https://www.tenn.gr/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/TEN_Q2_2026.pdf

{"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC","lag":2,"period":"holdout","slip":0.001,"return_pct":3.6668424770137453,"drawdown_pct":6.462538339398616,"win_pct":100,"n":2,"mean_trade_pct":1.8252191903915793,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":7.452198071580324,"buyhold_pct":-14.878185268963284,"avg_win_pct":1.8252191903915793,"avg_loss_pct":0} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees