ETH/USD C91304 completed daily close trend and ATR = 2525.045
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:16
{"close":2525.045,"SMA200":2055.8333431083274,"trend":true,"ATR20":94.40364558315002} CompleteSep12UTC. SMA needs200calendar days, unavailable when missing. Supplementary positive trend is not freshHIGH480entry.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD C91304 completed daily close trend and ATR = 77266.385
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:16
{"close":77266.385,"SMA200":70095.06604458945,"trend":true,"ATR20":2335.032182487298} CompleteSep12UTC. SMA needs200calendar days, unavailable when missing. Supplementary positive trend is not freshHIGH480entry.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD C91304 CLI gross SMA1/200 diagnostic = 8.322812958850578
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"SOL/USD","bars":749,"returnPct":8.322812958850578,"buyAndHoldPct":-35.42130365659778,"maxDrawdownPct":32.9544536865057,"winRate":0,"avgTradePct":-3.0791600842842306,"closed_n":3} node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy sma-cross --fast1 --slow200 --days981 (actualflags use spaces); same-close/gross/partialSep13bar/noholdout, notnewstablecoinrule.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More ETH/USD C91304 CLI gross SMA1/200 diagnostic = 10.768014960917771
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":982,"returnPct":10.768014960917771,"buyAndHoldPct":12.455484415892393,"maxDrawdownPct":37.855066424487426,"winRate":11.11111111111111,"avgTradePct":0.3904133352563331,"closed_n":9} node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy sma-cross --fast1 --slow200 --days981 (actualflags use spaces); same-close/gross/partialSep13bar/noholdout, notnewstablecoinrule.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More BTC/USD C91304 CLI gross SMA1/200 diagnostic = 14.476097445657476
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":982,"returnPct":14.476097445657476,"buyAndHoldPct":75.45561883607574,"maxDrawdownPct":31.23323591333802,"winRate":15.384615384615385,"avgTradePct":0.489509437442138,"closed_n":13} node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy sma-cross --fast1 --slow200 --days981 (actualflags use spaces); same-close/gross/partialSep13bar/noholdout, notnewstablecoinrule.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More SOL/USD C91304 one-day return supply regression holdout = 0.13667479206090452
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"SOL","period":"holdout","n":254,"beta":0.13667479206090452,"p":0.3020536451534933,"lo":-0.1228866757596965,"hi":0.39623625988150557} OLSHAC7; lag2 seven-dayUSDCunitgrowth, control7daymomentum; purgefinal1trainingday; current-vintage exploratory.
https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD C91304 one-day return supply regression train = -0.10450526517610656
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"SOL","period":"train","n":485,"beta":-0.10450526517610656,"p":0.11455911100818159,"lo":-0.23430430450236292,"hi":0.0252937741501498} OLSHAC7; lag2 seven-dayUSDCunitgrowth, control7daymomentum; purgefinal1trainingday; current-vintage exploratory.
https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91304 one-day return supply regression holdout = 0.12220378027522931
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"ETH","period":"holdout","n":254,"beta":0.12220378027522931,"p":0.4560958037566364,"lo":-0.1991673339663811,"hi":0.44357489451683974} OLSHAC7; lag2 seven-dayUSDCunitgrowth, control7daymomentum; purgefinal1trainingday; current-vintage exploratory.
https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91304 one-day return supply regression train = 0.016259025739994215
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"ETH","period":"train","n":730,"beta":0.016259025739994215,"p":0.7808913021201799,"lo":-0.09830585787154321,"hi":0.13082390935153165} OLSHAC7; lag2 seven-dayUSDCunitgrowth, control7daymomentum; purgefinal1trainingday; current-vintage exploratory.
https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD C91304 one-day return supply regression holdout = 0.08879372272165655
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"BTC","period":"holdout","n":254,"beta":0.08879372272165655,"p":0.3652053835124893,"lo":-0.10340312911518441,"hi":0.2809905745584975} OLSHAC7; lag2 seven-dayUSDCunitgrowth, control7daymomentum; purgefinal1trainingday; current-vintage exploratory.
https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD C91304 one-day return supply regression train = -0.001838888849846247
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"symbol":"BTC","period":"train","n":730,"beta":-0.001838888849846247,"p":0.9682097064258006,"lo":-0.09227338826194333,"hi":0.08859561056225083} OLSHAC7; lag2 seven-dayUSDCunitgrowth, control7daymomentum; purgefinal1trainingday; current-vintage exploratory.
https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
C91304 joint20day bootstrap and correlations = -47.910153625194575
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"seed":91304,"paths":10000,"historical_blocks":235,"days":20,"terminal_P1_pct":-32.98021401825096,"terminal_P5_pct":-28.993323316467524,"terminal_P95_pct":28.208208705187232,"path_min_P1_pct":-40.21332350612269,"fullfund_path_P1_USD":-47.910153625194575,"quarterfund_path_P1_USD":-11.977538406298644,"joint25pctcrash_full_USD":29.785,"joint25pctcrash_quarter_USD":7.44625,"corr":{"BTC":{"BTC":1,"ETH":0.911160407279912,"SOL":0.8785788848675186},"ETH":{"BTC":0.911160407279912,"ETH":1,"SOL":0.8794363093749923},"SOL":{"BTC":0.8785788848675186,"ETH":0.8794363093749923,"SOL":1}}} Resampling observed daily jointpaths, not forecast, no stops/fees; includesunconditional235overlapping2026windows,10kdrawsnotindependenthistory.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More SOL/USD C91304 full-exit net3R illustration and unconditioned20day range = 34.55505174122946
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"entry_proxy":101.86726549999999,"stop":90.95214836585,"target_full_net3R":137.06755180090056,"needed_gain_pct":34.55505174122946,"net_stoploss_pct":11.249744778048365,"MFE20_P90_pct":23.177850236514217,"target_MFE_coverage_pct":7.234042553191489,"n":235,"quarter_loss_USD":3.3507364821417056} CompletedSep12close*1.001entryproxy, stop2ATR20,25bpfee creditedcoin/USD,10bpsellslip. Full exit illustration excludes mandated partial/trail; not adopted target.235overlapping2026windowswithout20dayentrywarmup; different population fromprior214. MFEcoverage notstop-adjustedwinprobability.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More ETH/USD C91304 full-exit net3R illustration and unconditioned20day range = 24.819674938064562
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"entry_proxy":2527.570045,"stop":2338.7627538337,"target_full_net3R":3154.904714000892,"needed_gain_pct":24.819674938064562,"net_stoploss_pct":8.02405344321876,"MFE20_P90_pct":23.80786858274199,"target_MFE_coverage_pct":8.51063829787234,"n":235,"quarter_loss_USD":2.3899643180627077} CompletedSep12close*1.001entryproxy, stop2ATR20,25bpfee creditedcoin/USD,10bpsellslip. Full exit illustration excludes mandated partial/trail; not adopted target.235overlapping2026windowswithout20dayentrywarmup; different population fromprior214. MFEcoverage notstop-adjustedwinprobability.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More BTC/USD C91304 full-exit net3R illustration and unconditioned20day range = 20.52414716141906
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:15
{"entry_proxy":77343.65138499999,"stop":72673.5870200254,"target_full_net3R":93217.77621527232,"needed_gain_pct":20.52414716141906,"net_stoploss_pct":6.600785807276733,"MFE20_P90_pct":18.10131763437394,"target_MFE_coverage_pct":8.51063829787234,"n":235,"quarter_loss_USD":1.9660440526973748} CompletedSep12close*1.001entryproxy, stop2ATR20,25bpfee creditedcoin/USD,10bpsellslip. Full exit illustration excludes mandated partial/trail; not adopted target.235overlapping2026windowswithout20dayentrywarmup; different population fromprior214. MFEcoverage notstop-adjustedwinprobability.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More TEN R91304 completed signal and final accounting = 47.9
Supply chain 2026-09-13 04:14
Sep11completedclose47.90/prior20 44.71/SMA50 40.3494/ADR20 1.243575;1682daily,47537raw15min,43084calendarRTH. CLI95trades1250bars,return60.321944%,DD18.279506%,win36.842105%,notOOS. Ownopen/pending/closing queried separately; noorders, fund170.20cash, account850.99context. Jobs25004:01END6/6errors0,25103:16END6/6noERROR; next04:16. Currentwhole47.9exceedsconditional21.27475probe, notvenuecap. No completedstockbarsbeforeMonday.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag7 holdout slip0.003 = 0.2826693031187233
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":7,"period":"holdout","slip":0.003,"return_pct":0.2826693031187233,"drawdown_pct":8.034640029099737,"win_pct":100,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":0.2833759763765185,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":3.922209511358065,"buyhold_pct":-18.27869346128366,"avg_win_pct":0.2833759763765185,"avg_loss_pct":0} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag7 holdout slip0.001 = 0.6846050576475164
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":7,"period":"holdout","slip":0.001,"return_pct":0.6846050576475164,"drawdown_pct":8.03464002909976,"win_pct":100,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":0.6863165702916386,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":3.922209511358065,"buyhold_pct":-18.27869346128366,"avg_win_pct":0.6863165702916386,"avg_loss_pct":0} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag7 train slip0.003 = -12.067754102866289
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":7,"period":"train","slip":0.003,"return_pct":-12.067754102866289,"drawdown_pct":34.64973674582891,"win_pct":0,"n":3,"mean_trade_pct":-4.204788552603976,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":22.303132938187975,"buyhold_pct":586.352957997662,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":4.204788552603976} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag7 train slip0.001 = -11.006206002050135
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":7,"period":"train","slip":0.001,"return_pct":-11.006206002050135,"drawdown_pct":34.64973674582846,"win_pct":0,"n":3,"mean_trade_pct":-3.8198366481497783,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":22.303132938187975,"buyhold_pct":586.352957997662,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":3.8198366481497783} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag2 holdout slip0.003 = -3.40154329607931
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":2,"period":"holdout","slip":0.003,"return_pct":-3.40154329607931,"drawdown_pct":8.842839805825275,"win_pct":0,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":-3.4100471543195017,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":5.883314267037098,"buyhold_pct":-18.27869346128366,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":3.4100471543195017} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag2 holdout slip0.001 = -3.0143739691016833
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":2,"period":"holdout","slip":0.001,"return_pct":-3.0143739691016833,"drawdown_pct":8.842839805825198,"win_pct":0,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":-3.02190990402444,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":5.883314267037098,"buyhold_pct":-18.27869346128366,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":3.02190990402444} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag2 train slip0.003 = -12.067754102866289
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":2,"period":"train","slip":0.003,"return_pct":-12.067754102866289,"drawdown_pct":34.64973674582891,"win_pct":0,"n":3,"mean_trade_pct":-4.204788552603976,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":22.303132938187975,"buyhold_pct":586.352957997662,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":4.204788552603976} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag2 train slip0.001 = -11.006206002050135
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":2,"period":"train","slip":0.001,"return_pct":-11.006206002050135,"drawdown_pct":34.64973674582846,"win_pct":0,"n":3,"mean_trade_pct":-3.8198366481497783,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":22.303132938187975,"buyhold_pct":586.352957997662,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":3.8198366481497783} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More SOL/USD C91304 costed 1Hour USDC_USDT lag1 holdout slip0.003 = -7.865613126915903
Crypto majors 2026-09-13 04:13
{"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rule":"USDC_USDT","lag":1,"period":"holdout","slip":0.003,"return_pct":-7.865613126915903,"drawdown_pct":11.105586713474514,"win_pct":0,"n":1,"mean_trade_pct":-7.885277159733199,"half_kelly":null,"exposure_pct":6.275535218172903,"buyhold_pct":-18.27869346128366,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":7.885277159733199} Return/DD/win inpercent; fees25bp/side, slip10or30bp; Nclosedincludesforcedterminal. Current-vintage supply and assumedavailability; daily-state hourlyfillproxy, no managedexits, size0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
More