Notes

{"return_pct":-12.517991817228094,"drawdown":25.20345082260248,"win_rate":20,"sample":5,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":9} Trade returns %=[-7.214883103347535,-11.135359463326989,-0.19877811027919634,-2.4712348925030825,9.004104744574871]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-7.241133793437456,"drawdown":40.93258539506647,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":16,"half_kelly":0.1445287897907943,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":10,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":9} Trade returns %=[-9.507312902458953,19.878293793885483,-8.27347100322704,-13.26657257826913,0.3813336182278082,-9.754041524835777,-7.734111040159009,23.007648416321857,-11.593887146654758,19.698729017783112,-10.018245598333909,29.27245405803265,-8.542514737552631,13.42496067063912,-8.018953844212206,-10.996436702364198]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-14.026669706591264,"drawdown":25.94128685814059,"win_rate":20,"sample":5,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":9} Trade returns %=[-7.585283880581983,-11.30524077075007,-0.5971873745373668,-2.860572445839049,8.6251637838042]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-9.054935168625846,"drawdown":40.54646727369256,"win_rate":31.25,"sample":16,"half_kelly":0.0968757084294225,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":30,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":9} Trade returns %=[-9.675595571892092,20.597321119097202,-8.404973206055333,-11.518834608391815,-0.019391468247387245,-10.114305910757748,-8.102439044972742,22.516598449440405,-11.336158542773155,18.69692166182475,-10.377455274217839,29.21432393281467,-8.907615572235583,12.922635395525162,-8.3861447485993,-11.351741412049476]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-12.47270212407561,"drawdown":25.20345082260248,"win_rate":20,"sample":5,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":9} Trade returns %=[-7.214883103347535,-11.135359463326989,-0.19877811027919634,-2.4712348925030825,9.060536490470895]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-8.611411416638859,"drawdown":40.93258539506645,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":16,"half_kelly":0.11328611701546132,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":10,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":9} Trade returns %=[-9.507312902458953,19.73880932355676,-8.27347100322704,-13.266572578269143,0.3813336182278082,-9.754041524835754,-7.734111040159009,22.98366090858135,-11.593887146654769,18.915509075013247,-10.018245598333909,28.503527346864367,-8.542514737552642,13.312410118070606,-8.018953844212184,-10.996436702364198]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-8.981052390595906,"drawdown":15.98964773474817,"win_rate":28.57142857142857,"sample":7,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":58} Trade returns %=[-3.027501605984728,3.043756815599852,-6.320423114251317,-2.532525973388866,14.174689706616705,-5.912950683343832,-7.133897167921955]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-6.751293193289612,"drawdown":33.963077991874805,"win_rate":38.88888888888889,"sample":18,"half_kelly":0.0765597050196738,"skipped_staleprice":1,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":30,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":58} Trade returns %=[-8.966218204090703,24.741406768687924,10.609390464284063,4.744116577180635,-7.897218733386913,-11.0143915823116,-0.4901086805224386,0.2679043229864009,19.50906580156142,-7.574890328522232,2.552979834157898,-9.264348865468552,-7.571844782624693,14.383100921344226,-6.2638952554097465,-5.003443470034785,-6.03302524739151,-4.673418907930682]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":0.6012353133369288,"drawdown":15.138951433057047,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"half_kelly":0.4883210743709352,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":58} Trade returns %=[-2.6388331094100437,3.4567590864106768,-6.1258240719124775,-2.141873600579669,12.885150232137743,-3.688349728403628]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":3.605153035365362,"drawdown":34.318680373038134,"win_rate":38.88888888888889,"sample":18,"half_kelly":0.456774082219499,"skipped_staleprice":1,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":10,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":58} Trade returns %=[-8.601352250401828,25.241373829786063,21.842016732706515,5.1639339376623905,-7.726424274460331,-10.657734765035853,-0.09127024185185961,0.6697808990602239,19.2502622572823,2.2597826617772654,-9.076678642090663,-8.900677827842063,-7.201390141108243,14.841551601742475,-5.88819831546068,-5.009648493599583,-5.656402973967378,-6.165658759408943]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-0.6142790493896086,"drawdown":15.863899707075579,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"half_kelly":0.16224451770763793,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":35} Trade returns %=[-3.239170441482997,3.043756815599874,-6.181845338253089,-2.734866189542129,13.640974922314019,-3.8778005844461894]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-18.444127733175662,"drawdown":41.32835263345276,"win_rate":36.84210526315789,"sample":19,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":30,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":35} Trade returns %=[-8.639497515312511,24.25963464504537,10.483425077517827,-11.044662046766652,6.401637239938229,-8.17881172785806,-11.841360394874101,-0.4901086805224275,0.2679043229864231,19.037951174813884,3.0680322527520287,-9.264348865468552,-7.95103198111523,15.468509142862175,-6.072713385225448,-5.0472491893410965,-6.082608321787742,-4.67341890793066,-9.970670687410156]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":5.558319556972549,"drawdown":15.45050611215416,"win_rate":50,"sample":6,"half_kelly":2.314089532612358,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":35} Trade returns %=[-2.8513503195446877,3.456759086410699,-6.472107319684783,-2.345024802001061,13.145314568898758,1.6306568392958631]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-22.986784517157048,"drawdown":44.84170257336555,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":21,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":10,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":35} Trade returns %=[-8.2733220559286,24.757670749943685,21.715546473133006,-10.748325723396334,-10.688126554362443,6.828097989779924,-7.810789826901865,-11.488018091820551,-0.09127024185185961,0.6697808990602017,18.777259389881728,3.1599575545917524,-7.52074601227447,-8.900677827842053,-7.5820971325379904,15.89670460434791,-5.69625018297224,-4.941153500215634,-5.706184778718115,-6.165658759408943,-9.788301843191327]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-8.81194220961109,"drawdown":25.31098266214705,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":8} Trade returns %=[-3.6543182801291763,-11.698307760134341,4.363714514214911,-6.22585307940694,-3.4556311216627944,13.442839162922905]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-24.56075778660467,"drawdown":31.579696620238728,"win_rate":31.57894736842105,"sample":19,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":30,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":8} Trade returns %=[-12.283381347399658,24.80088734579393,-8.144627401734006,-10.427666854958062,5.341797803150139,-7.897218733386923,-10.81476932446993,-0.4901086805224275,-0.11336081344540672,19.15517436263552,4.918469293939842,-9.264348865468541,-7.1618245203134645,8.67961251644369,-6.263895255409757,5.734332154161126,-5.071996359215147,-5.129658413068627,-4.673418907930671]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-8.440499931558236,"drawdown":24.818515274881538,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":8} Trade returns %=[-3.2681620823856283,-11.873977250395463,4.782007212546535,-6.173015238214119,-3.0686785802089056,12.707079419490451]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-23.197542299712197,"drawdown":30.32847126659445,"win_rate":36.84210526315789,"sample":19,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","mode":"manager","slippage_bp":10,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":8} Trade returns %=[-12.7252881448484,24.56658452482099,-7.776468489038823,-10.068658428499678,5.764010686768639,-7.726424274460308,-10.878623242158802,-0.09127024185185961,0.2869876412555872,18.440528131518974,5.338985465006263,-8.90067782784204,-7.309901972604815,9.115203455159726,-5.88819831546068,6.158118326480944,-4.778029384450589,-4.749415420005776,-6.165658759408954]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-8.924188024561658,"drawdown":25.31098266214705,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":8} Trade returns %=[-3.6543182801291763,-11.698307760134341,4.363714514214911,-6.22585307940694,-3.4556311216627944,13.303199343403804]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-24.836402055925234,"drawdown":31.58067707025294,"win_rate":31.57894736842105,"sample":19,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":30,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":8} Trade returns %=[-12.283381347399658,24.42704264903579,-8.144627401733995,-10.427666854958051,5.341797803150139,-7.897218733386902,-10.81476932446993,-0.4901086805224275,-0.11336081344539561,19.29298160611712,4.918469293939842,-9.264348865468563,-7.161824520313454,8.679612516443669,-6.263895255409757,5.5424514275626,-5.0719963592151585,-5.129658413068617,-4.67341890793066]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-8.554393363816658,"drawdown":24.818515274881538,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":8} Trade returns %=[-3.2681620823856283,-11.873977250395463,4.782007212546535,-6.173015238214119,-3.0686785802089056,12.566879919653617]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return_pct":-23.668860167219393,"drawdown":30.328471266594047,"win_rate":36.84210526315789,"sample":19,"half_kelly":0,"skipped_staleprice":0,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","mode":"immediate15","slippage_bp":10,"window":"train","events_missed_gt2h_fullsample":8} Trade returns %=[-12.7252881448484,24.191241448020584,-7.776468489038823,-10.068658428499678,5.764010686768617,-7.726424274460319,-10.878623242158792,-0.09127024185183741,0.28698764125554277,18.34505067464651,5.338985465006241,-8.90067782784204,-7.3099019726048375,9.115203455159726,-5.88819831546068,5.91090167579571,-4.77802938445061,-4.749415420005787,-6.165658759408965]. 15m open checks, 2ATR stop, +2R quarter/BE at selected cadence, residual target for net3R; horizon exits wait cadence. First event retained on collisions, expiry2h; fees25bp each+10/30bpslip. Train2024–25/known2026holdout, forcedterminalclose. Fullsample missed count includes pre2024 warmup with no15m history; do not interpret as withinwindow misses. Model notfills. All48cells; timestamps managed_results.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"return":-37.399061444715784,"drawdown":59.524717581898415,"win_rate":34.61538461538461,"sample":26,"mean_pct":-0.8096988902337834,"median_pct":-6.765371498584283,"targets":6,"stops":19,"partials":5,"missing_checks":143,"affected_trades":14,"avg_days":14.115384615384615}; training sensitivity only; keep frozenL20, no selection of L10 after seeing best result. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"return":127.98924762429023,"drawdown":63.012196429589416,"win_rate":50,"sample":32,"mean_pct":3.7007154855752638,"median_pct":-1.9593280267985125,"targets":8,"stops":18,"partials":11,"missing_checks":294,"affected_trades":20,"avg_days":19.21875}; training sensitivity only; keep frozenL20, no selection of L10 after seeing best result. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"close":47.9,"adr_prior_at_latest_session":1.184625,"adr_for_Monday":1.2435749999999999,"signal":true}; seed91306; manager cron primary, train2020–24/knownholdout2025–Sep11. Measured Sep13. Statistical/simulation estimates conditional on current-name sample; not probability forecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars