Notes

{"window":"2026_2026-09-18","L":40,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":67.3585542558506,"drawdown_pct":20.12329671292742,"win_rate":75,"n":4,"mean_trade_pct":15.279142894079175,"avg_win_pct":25.20187895150512,"avg_loss_pct":-14.489065278198654,"half_kelly":0.30313499488431334,"reconcile_error":4.440892098500626e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2023_2025","L":40,"slip":0.0045,"return_pct":-20.29384384279607,"drawdown_pct":59.342713411887836,"win_rate":25,"n":16,"mean_trade_pct":-0.7206120428137051,"avg_win_pct":20.326179652818766,"avg_loss_pct":-7.736209274691196,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":8.604228440844963e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2023_2025","L":40,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":-12.26264403067986,"drawdown_pct":56.82858196178449,"win_rate":25,"n":16,"mean_trade_pct":-0.12313926379227888,"avg_win_pct":21.05031402174945,"avg_loss_pct":-7.180957025639521,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":6.522560269672795e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2016_2022","L":40,"slip":0.0045,"return_pct":-20.38542169757969,"drawdown_pct":41.53995810752774,"win_rate":31.818181818181817,"n":22,"mean_trade_pct":-0.362032935691932,"avg_win_pct":15.69812833402549,"avg_loss_pct":-7.856774861560063,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":5.551115123125783e-17} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2016_2022","L":40,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":-9.151025440131423,"drawdown_pct":36.870993311855415,"win_rate":31.818181818181817,"n":22,"mean_trade_pct":0.2375978064277705,"avg_win_pct":16.394410650885845,"avg_loss_pct":-7.302248187652665,"half_kelly":0.0072463052038693465,"reconcile_error":1.3183898417423734e-15} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2026_2026-09-18","L":20,"slip":0.0045,"return_pct":63.38972669204982,"drawdown_pct":20.601126668136448,"win_rate":75,"n":4,"mean_trade_pct":14.5895322138832,"avg_win_pct":24.452909530515473,"avg_loss_pct":-15.00059973601362,"half_kelly":0.29831894228530376,"reconcile_error":9.992007221626409e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2026_2026-09-18","L":20,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":67.3585542558506,"drawdown_pct":20.12329671292742,"win_rate":75,"n":4,"mean_trade_pct":15.279142894079175,"avg_win_pct":25.20187895150512,"avg_loss_pct":-14.489065278198654,"half_kelly":0.30313499488431334,"reconcile_error":4.440892098500626e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2023_2025","L":20,"slip":0.0045,"return_pct":-50.43555188752061,"drawdown_pct":68.54377740120246,"win_rate":15.789473684210526,"n":19,"mean_trade_pct":-3.044955012833807,"avg_win_pct":22.913489881869573,"avg_loss_pct":-7.912163430590691,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":3.3306690738754696e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2023_2025","L":20,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":-44.45047771519296,"drawdown_pct":65.78727539090362,"win_rate":15.789473684210526,"n":19,"mean_trade_pct":-2.461470350402055,"avg_win_pct":23.653194929312185,"avg_loss_pct":-7.357970090348475,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":5.551115123125783e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2016_2022","L":20,"slip":0.0045,"return_pct":-39.280069489328014,"drawdown_pct":51.681296414836986,"win_rate":25,"n":32,"mean_trade_pct":-0.7650259645287326,"avg_win_pct":21.03103478677324,"avg_loss_pct":-8.030379548296057,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":3.885780586188048e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2016_2022","L":20,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":-26.427312678389058,"drawdown_pct":42.621322445766715,"win_rate":25,"n":32,"mean_trade_pct":-0.16782047270337241,"avg_win_pct":21.759411040795637,"avg_loss_pct":-7.476897643869708,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":1.5543122344752192e-15} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2026_2026-09-18","L":10,"slip":0.0045,"return_pct":18.954440969609472,"drawdown_pct":33.56279069658028,"win_rate":42.857142857142854,"n":7,"mean_trade_pct":4.117028271127828,"avg_win_pct":24.954592602342355,"avg_loss_pct":-11.511144977283067,"half_kelly":0.08249039238455419,"reconcile_error":6.106226635438361e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2026_2026-09-18","L":10,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":24.056980512050654,"drawdown_pct":32.15223228418003,"win_rate":42.857142857142854,"n":7,"mean_trade_pct":4.743614428683819,"avg_win_pct":25.70658119967141,"avg_loss_pct":-10.978610649556874,"half_kelly":0.09226459154250458,"reconcile_error":1.942890293094024e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2023_2025","L":10,"slip":0.0045,"return_pct":-9.022404959041523,"drawdown_pct":52.30271634536632,"win_rate":27.27272727272727,"n":22,"mean_trade_pct":0.4396147015830107,"avg_win_pct":22.812369847560785,"avg_loss_pct":-7.950168478158654,"half_kelly":0.00963544569285546,"reconcile_error":1.8457457784393227e-15} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2023_2025","L":10,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":3.8154241802067648,"drawdown_pct":47.81081302594027,"win_rate":27.27272727272727,"n":22,"mean_trade_pct":1.0440698352657,"avg_win_pct":23.551466345039938,"avg_loss_pct":-7.396203855899638,"half_kelly":0.022165707645748906,"reconcile_error":5.898059818321144e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2016_2022","L":10,"slip":0.0045,"return_pct":-59.44503929398045,"drawdown_pct":68.42955517679925,"win_rate":24.390243902439025,"n":41,"mean_trade_pct":-1.401227583887585,"avg_win_pct":20.31142436547991,"avg_loss_pct":-8.405308857877097,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":5.551115123125783e-16} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

{"window":"2016_2022","L":10,"slip":0.0015,"return_pct":-48.13415364642348,"drawdown_pct":60.34473938555224,"win_rate":24.390243902439025,"n":41,"mean_trade_pct":-0.8078508137874236,"avg_win_pct":21.035469935691005,"avg_loss_pct":-7.854083313619176,"half_kelly":0,"reconcile_error":1.0547118733938987e-15} Actual history endsSep16; 2026windowlabelrequestedSep18 butSep17–18closesmissing. Noimputation. DividendsadjustedOHLC,EURreturn,notUSDexecutedPnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

3xoptionexit vsfullpremiumloss,2USDroundtripcost,100fund: prices.10/.12/.13/.15 => breakevenprob40/38.8889/38.4615/37.7778%; probabilityrequiredforonewholecontractathalfKelly54.4/56/56.9231/58.9333%. Hypothetical thresholds not estimatedodds. Correspondinghurdles6.7524/7.3955/7.7170/8.3601%,P80multiples4.3633/3.6361/3.3564/2.9089. Exactmodelbaseline-7.09092,bootstrapmean95CI[-12.27064,1.48562],50000samplesof9,seed92104; no actualoptionhistory. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

[{"mult": 1.25, "period": "train", "return": -42.50127355679397, "drawdown": -44.05348158976054, "win_rate": 40.0, "sample": 5}, {"mult": 1.25, "period": "known_holdout", "return": -13.220697805247836, "drawdown": -25.071729806239752, "win_rate": 33.33333333333333, "sample": 3}, {"mult": 1.5, "period": "train", "return": -42.50127355679397, "drawdown": -44.05348158976054, "win_rate": 40.0, "sample": 5}, {"mult": 1.5, "period": "known_holdout", "return": -13.220697805247836, "drawdown": -25.071729806239752, "win_rate": 33.33333333333333, "sample": 3}, {"mult": 2.0, "period": "train", "return": -47.559300300691746, "drawdown": -48.97496427036341, "win_rate": 40.0, "sample": 5}, {"mult": 2.0, "period": "known_holdout", "return": -14.119501487007188, "drawdown": -19.22106660583941, "win_rate": 0.0, "sample": 1}]; vectorbt drawdown signednegative here; publicanalysis reports magnitude. CLI1537bars,N18return-11.48034711/DD24.478377/win22.22222/buyhold124.817518. Known2026holdoutnotnewOOS; stockproxy notoptionPnL. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js

[{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.06,"mean":5.366862410864126,"wins":4,"stops":5,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.07,"mean":4.29475484695801,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.06,"mean":3.2947548469580092,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.07,"mean":4.050402734549182,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.06,"mean":2.637879533319437,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.07,"mean":-6.386378206955025,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1}]; N9 daily-model sensitivity only, no broker order. Stop .06/.07 tests are not instruction to relax mandated50% threshold. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

[{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.06,"mean":-0.3000661317640445,"wins":2,"stops":7,"targets":2},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.07,"mean":-5.944852698563367,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.06,"mean":-6.916533528864186,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.07,"mean":-6.596590613642383,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.06,"mean":-7.690101669156132,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.07,"mean":-7.053614896717729,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1}]; N9 daily-model sensitivity only, no broker order. Stop .06/.07 tests are not instruction to relax mandated50% threshold. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

[{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.06,"mean":-7.240703587829951,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.07,"mean":-6.714327559414181,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.06,"mean":-7.625410672955665,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.07,"mean":-6.808829987610821,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.06,"mean":-7.984566526749824,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.07,"mean":-7.984566526749824,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1}]; N9 daily-model sensitivity only, no broker order. Stop .06/.07 tests are not instruction to relax mandated50% threshold. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

Sep21 calculation: rawclose3.11,prior252high3.10,volume2994701/2.184476088x,adjustedATR20simple.104765,RSI14Wilder74.30063174,SMA50=2.54998,SMA200=2.33733. AllpostDec14 2023windows maximum12of30VWAP>=current3.0969threshold,windowendingMay24 2024; currentlast30count1,redemption3.5393count0. Fixedcurrentthresholdproxy, not authoritativehistoricalterms orissuerdecision. Medianbootstrap95CI8.1586259–18.7291766%,P80CI13.6748542–34.1968912%,50000resamplesseed92104,N9. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Primary trade-association project-level model, page observedSep21 2026,publicationdayunspecified. Fullpage explicitlyQ3:7.9millionwafer/month2026,+3%;2027+2%,2028+2%,2029+1%;equipment7.6bn+9%,then-9/-16/-18%. SearchsnippetstaleQ2showed7.7m/+3%2027;useopenedQ3page. Forecast installedcapacity,notrealizedqualifiedhighvoltagecapacity,utilizationorleadtime. Publicsummarynotpaidunderlying348fabdataset. https://www.semi.org/cn/products-services/market-data/200mm-fab-outlook