Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
ETH/USD 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = -46.433545367857086
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = -33.45056899540282
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
TLT 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = -5.756904789651552
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GLD 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = 18.94350653224364
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = 34.203758654797234
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = 19.45812807881775
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
IWM 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = 23.457264957264947
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
QQQ 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = 23.69878183831673
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY 13:51 UTC completed daily signal and conditional notional = 18.489062524223687
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 13:52
{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; latest completed dates in table. Adjusted-close return proxy, arithmetic ATR20; one provider. Proposed sizes are not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
T9131230 UKMTO original lookup incomplete
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:36
Sep13~12:35UTC browser returns27line recent-incidents page without identifiable Sep13notice; two bounded searches return no relevant primary match. Secondary newincident lead28107 remains unknown, not disproved; do not infer vessel identity/lostcapacity/cash. Next00UTC handoff should trace exact original if accessible. https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents
TEN T9131230 derived H1 operating contribution proxy = 30835
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:36
Python arithmetic on Sep10issuer H1June30table:43503TCE-10298opex-2370overhead=30835USD/vessel/day versus30754-9743-2063=18948,+62.7348533%. OCF281.167/115.944-1=142.502415%. Proxy excludes debt service, drydock/capex, taxes/residualclaims and denominator differences; not common FCF or Septspot guidance. No annualization. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html
T91312 remote delivery gap resolved and midnight coverage audit = 3
Crypto majors2026-09-13 12:34
[{"id":14,"everyMinutes":1440,"remaining":21,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-13T03:16:10.776Z","nextRunAt":"2026-09-14T03:16:10.776Z","exit":0,"END":false,"cutoff":null},{"id":25,"everyMinutes":1440,"remaining":20,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-13T05:31:08.563Z","nextRunAt":"2026-09-14T05:31:08.563Z","exit":0,"END":false,"cutoff":null},{"id":260,"everyMinutes":60,"remaining":16,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-13T11:46:00.518Z","nextRunAt":"2026-09-13T12:46:00.518Z","exit":0,"END":true,"cutoff":"2026-09-14T02:30Z"},{"id":261,"everyMinutes":15,"remaining":68,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-13T12:31:06.279Z","nextRunAt":"2026-09-13T12:46:06.279Z","exit":0,"END":true,"cutoff":"2026-09-14T02:30Z"},{"id":262,"everyMinutes":15,"remaining":68,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-13T12:31:06.279Z","nextRunAt":"2026-09-13T12:46:06.279Z","exit":0,"END":true,"cutoff":"2026-09-14T02:30Z"}]. Jobs260–262 haveactualEND/exit0; quotessecondexplorerConnectTimeoutandUSDCcmsunparsedremainpanelgaps. Scheduled15minmeansnominalcadence; notesobserved15–30minintervals,notguaranteed15min. Enoughremainingruns and02:30cutoffscover00UTCnextreview; retainratherthanreplacehealthyjobs. Ownarmedmonitors10, nonecurrentlydue;367midnighthandoffalreadyarmed. Noorderdependsonthecollectors. list_jobs fund=crypto; list_monitors fund=crypto
BTC/USD T91312 Liquid panel receipts and unresolved second explorer = 4055565
Crypto majors2026-09-13 12:34
ObservedSep13 12:33:11UTC. recipient BTC 598.50426749 mempool_net 0.00022999 tx_n 1430 reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 1.092e-05 tx_n 597 recentpage 72 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4055565 age_s 61 t 1789302730 second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'} operator_notes 3 operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a r END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery . Address attribution inheritedwatch,not newlyverified. No balance-to-sale inference; latesttxpage is not completehistory; advancingtip is not proof allpegoutswork. No incident-basedtrade. https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream ; https://blockstream.info/api/
T91312 top10 quotes and cost hurdles = 7
Crypto majors2026-09-13 12:34
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T12:33:11.225387+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=76784.14/76796.8 age=66 ok=1 depthUSD=76.8/76.2 hurdle%=0.518 ETH b/a=2480.5/2481.3 age=90 ok=1 depthUSD=82.4/82.8 hurdle%=0.534 SOL b/a=99.77/99.81 age=149 ok=1 depthUSD=95.1/95.4 hurdle%=0.542 USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=40953 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=107212 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.341/1.3456 age=149 ok=1 depthUSD=5562.0/5596.5 hurdle%=0.847 USDT b/a=0.99895/1.001 age=55287 ok=0 depthUSD=497044.9/1188853.5 hurdle%=0.708 LTC b/a=53.4121/53.738 age=128 ok=1 depthUSD=3651.2/3667.4 hurdle%=1.115 HYPE b/a=77.45/77.8146 age=149 ok=1 depthUSD=59195.8/59800.0 hurdle%=0.975 LINK b/a=11.27/11.3 age=51 ok=1 depthUSD=13026.6/13122.7 hurdle%=0.769 fresh_quotes 7 /10 Source is venue quote snapshot; hurdle uses25bp creditedasset fees/side andspread,noextraslippage. Sizes displayed top-of-book,not guaranteedfill. Quote freshness<=300seconds at retrieval,not now. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots
T9131230 secondary new shipping incident lead unverified
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:34
Searchresult Sep13~02:26UTC relay attributes new incident toUKMTO, damage/crewunknown; not readfull nor verifiedagainstUKMTO original. Leadonly, no trade. Repeated Saudiattack articles map back to prior official event; citations not independent throughput receipts. https://www.khanlist.com/story/new-report-of-attack-on-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-fans-37ca0ef8
TEN T9131230 primary discovery limitations
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:34
Sep13 primary page HTTP200 via browser and requests but only title visible after HTML stripping; same for Arabic original https://www.spa.gov.sa/N2674019 . Cannot independently read current throughput/restart from these responses. Prior stored full disclosure remains dated evidence. Bounded Sep13pipeline search returned repeats and secondary newincident report, no verified freshprimary restoration. TEN issuer archive https://www.tenn.gr/press-releases/ appears stale relative to Sep10GNW; absence from archive not no release. https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/N2674116
TEN T9131230 H1 2026 operating and investing cash reverified = 32.855
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:34
Issuer originated Sep10 09:15ET, period6months endedJune30. Reopened table: OCF281.167m plus net investing-248.312m=32.855m before financing. H1TCE43503USD/day versus30754; operating expense10298+overhead2370=12668/day, prior9743+2063=11806. Supports realized operating rent, not free common distribution. Issuer promotional bias; figures unaudited and period predates Septpipeline attack. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html
MAERSK-B.CO T9131230 ACP advisory index unchanged top notice = 34
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:34
Read Sep13 about12:33UTC: index startsA34Augustsummary, thenA33draft,A32latecancellation,A31allocation,A30booking,A29precipitation. Matches collector264. No newer notice visible in inspected index; not proof no unpublished disruption. Existing analysis3207 andmonitor103 retained. https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/
T9131230 supply state and collector receipt audit = 0
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:34
Sep13 query_trades only closed IDs3/6: FRO44.49->46.182917,STNG79.76->80.36, both Sep4operatorliquidation. Zero open/pending/closing, zero strategy exits, no quote baseline for slippage. Monitors18armed/0due, next369Sep14 00UTC. list_jobs:264actual12:01output1923chars END7/7,44runs;250actual11:46output1173chars END6/6 errors0,13runs;214END10/10;36partial2sourceerrors(AirLiquide403/MOFCOMtimeout);18period8/30-9/5. Counts are operation receipts, not new trade evidence. runway://query_trades?fund=supply
TEN T9131230 assumed gap sensitivity arithmetic = -0.1255605593
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:34
Recomputed in Python from saved3219 training15bp mean1.4467783586%, NOTnew backtest. Replacing ordinary return with -30% at assumed per-trade probability q gives(1-q)*mean-30q: q0/+1.446778%,2.5%/+.660609%,4.6007204%/0,5%/-.125561%,7.5%/-.911730%,10%/-1.697899%. Probability assumption not empirical crisis frequency; sample22 archived. Negative joint mean implies zero long Kelly under this scenario; lowering q solely to trade is not evidence. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TEN T9131230 retained net payoff with cent barriers = 2.76391280099
Supply chain2026-09-13 12:34
Calculated Sep13 from archived Sep11 close47.90, not fresh executable quote; fixed S45.41/T55.36, fee1bp+slip15bp each side gives netrisk5.50121059%,reward15.20486637%,2.76391280R. At47.74 reference gives3.00722860R and21.27notional modeled loss1.10274296/gain3.31620017. Fresh SIP split-history GET today403; cannot independently refresh gap history. No orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM Sunday trading execution and capital receipt = 1
Core trend2026-09-13 12:34
Order11 verified pending1 EEM limit67.84 stop65.93 target75.11 expirySep15 02:06:08.612UTC. No open/closed lots; no live winrate/slippage/Kelly estimate. Fund170.20,account850.99,positioncap212.7475,slot56.733333,reserved67.84,uncommitted102.36. Nominal loss1.91=.224444%account; target gain7.27=.854298%account;3.806283R, arithmetic binary break-even20.8061%beforecosts not calibrated odds. Own monitors365Sep14 00UTC,300Sep14 12:30UTC,329Sep15 12:45UTC armed; none due. Initial signal receipt labels12:34UTC are rounded minute labels; actual API createdAt12:33:43–48UTC records retrieval/storage timing. query_trades fund=trend order11; venue account context 2026-09-13T12:31:38.689Z
BTC/USD T91312 own live record sample audit = 1
Crypto majors2026-09-13 12:34
QueriedSep13 12:31UTC: oneclosedBTCtrade10,notional137.2644226836,entry81614.8,exit81548.7,Sep3 19:42:24.677–20:30:20.345UTC,operatorliquidation. No own open or pending lots. One discretionary liquidation cannot estimate stop/target winrate or order-type slippage: no contemporaneous submission quote. Existinglessoncompleted; no newclosedtradeawaitinglesson. query_trades fund=crypto trade10
T91312 primary fee schedule verification = 25
Crypto majors2026-09-13 12:34
RetrievedSep13 12:32UTC. Tier1 30dayvolume0–100000USD maker15bp/taker25bp. Feechargedcreditedasset: coinonbuy,USDonUSDsale. Currentpublishedschedule,notverifiedaccountfeeledger or historicalfees. Marketablelimitistaker; standinglimitdoesnotautomaticallyprove maker fill. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
USDC/USD T91312 dated USDC issuer flow and provider difference = -250
Crypto majors2026-09-13 12:34
RetrievedSep13 12:32UTC direct issuer asofSep10: circulation74.06bnUSD,issued/redeemed7d6.66/6.91bn=>net-250m(-35.714m/day);30d38.06/36.04=>+2020m(+67.333m/day);365d334.68/332.88=>+1800m(+4.932m/day). LlamaSep13 vintage74,418,078,352.04755USD; Ethereum46,995,301,656.51,Solana7,308,024,264.47,HyperliquidL1 6,802,385,708.14. Different dates/definitions prevent interpreting358.078m gap as flow. USDC homepage CMS unparsed; unknown notzero. Issuer is closest to own issuance but promotional; Llama secondary aggregation. No current coin-buying inference. https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://www.usdc.com/
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