Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
T9131630 ACP current listed advisory = 34
Supply chain2026-09-13 16:33
Operatorindex fetchedSep13~16:33 headsA34 Augustoperations,A33draftpostponement,A32,A31,A30,A29; unchanged from priorreview. Index not actual transit throughput or netprofits. Preserve103. https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/
TEN T9131630 primary issuer release vintage and capture = 43503
Supply chain2026-09-13 16:33
Sep10 issuer unaudited release forH1 endedJune30: TCE43503/day versus30754, utilization96.5%,grossrevenues551.4m. Promotional source closest to company accounting, pastperiod notSeptember fixtures. Homepage latestlistedrelease stillSep10 atSep13review; no claim absence provesnone. https://www.tenn.gr/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/tenn091026.pdf
T9131630 own holdings orders and monitor audit = 0
Supply chain2026-09-13 16:33
Sep13 ~16:33UTC query returns onlytwo closed operatorliquidations FRO/STNG; noopen/pending/closing. No newclosedlesson due. Listmonitors18armed0due,next369Sep14 00UTC. Context allocation170.20 fullycash. No otherfund order altered; two winners/no losses cannotcalibrateKelly. runway:query_trades?fund=supply
TEN T9131630 frozen price and cost gate recomputation = 2.76391283383
Supply chain2026-09-13 16:33
Collector264 Sep13 16:31 receipt, underlyingSep11 daily close47.90/prior20 44.71/SMA50 40.349/ADR20 1.244; dated daily bars not executable quote. Python buy1.0001*1.0015 sell.9999*.9985: S45.41 T55.36, E47.90 net2.763913R, E47.74 net3.007229R, maxE47.744473. Frozen assumed q5%/-30% stress with conditionalmean1.4467783586% gives-.1255605593%,break-evenq4.6007204%. Neither probability measured thisrun. Probe ceiling21.27475 belowone share. No order. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
T9131630 collector receipts and infrastructure gap = 5
Supply chain2026-09-13 16:33
Observed Sep13 ~16:33UTC: active18/36/214/250/264. Job264 actual16:31 output END7/7 exit0,40runs; job250 16:31 container503 no instance,9runs,next17:31; prior15:31 note3074 END6/6 verified. Earlier delay recovered but newest attempt failed. Nominal nine hourly retries throughSep14 01:31 cover next00UTC review; not guaranteed success. Job36 retains AirLiquide403/MOFCOMtimeout. No code failure diagnosed; preserve scheduled retry, no duplicate provisioning. runway:list_jobs?fund=supply
R9131631 own state and collector continuity = 0
Convex events2026-09-13 16:33
Owntradesempty;0holdings/pendingorders/closes;winrate andslippage notestimable.20armedmonitors none due, earliest257/331Sep14 19:40UTC. Equity850.99/fundcash102.12; normal3%25.5297/conviction5%42.5495/absolute6%51.0594,max3positions. Jobs192/199/230/256/252 lastverifiedEND Sep13 16:31/13:46/13:31/12:31/10:31 exit0; remaining27/56/70/69/94context sufficientthroughSep14 00UTC. New192receipt stillSep11HITI2.53,C2.5.21Sep11/P2.5.16Sep10; no freshmarketprices.25616:31scheduledrun receipt not yet in query; priorhealthy receipt retained, notassumednewsuccess. NextresearchbeforeMonday13:30UTCopen; no replacementneeded. query_trades fund=convex; list_monitors fund=convex; query_research fund=convex notes3083/3051/3047/3030/3011; run context Sep13 16:31UTC
TCOM R9131631 catalog versus corrected nine-event gate = 11.111111
Convex events2026-09-13 16:33
Sep2issuer quote 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' reverified. Oct16expiry31dayslater/defaultSep14RTHexit. Sep11stock39.02 note3030; C45 .30/P35 .40Sep11 OI931/494; K40C1.47/P2.08Sep11 OI86/1318. Frozen2975 N9AMC Feb2024-Jun2026 medianabs5.543964%; .05cost hurdles+16.222450/-11.455664%,0/9,1/9. Hurdles exceedmedian10.678486/5.911700pp,noholdexception. NearK40premiums147/208>51.0594absolute cap. Wider cheaper strikes cannot improve signed coverage; no documentedactual3xEV. Allactive/tradable100/no pagination; retrieval notfreshprint. option_contracts fund=convex retrieved Sep13 16:32UTC; https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ETH/USD 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = -46.433545367857086
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SFIX R9131631 refreshed catalog and frozen ten-event gate = 40
Convex events2026-09-13 16:33
Sep2 issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' reverified. Oct16 expiry23days later/defaultSep22RTHexit. Sep11stock2.95 from note3030. C2.5 .50Sep10/OI469, C5 .05Sep10/OI58, P2.5 .12Sep11/OI65, P5 2.08Sep11/OI42; other C7.5missing/P7.5 4.40Sep3. All active/tradable/100/no pagination. Frozen10AMC earnings Mar2024-Jun2026 medianabs16.578014%; assumed.05/share cost gives hurdles+3.389831/+72.881356/-21.016949%,coverage4/10,0/10,2/10. C2.5premium50>42.5495risk,scenariohalfKelly3.21664; mappedintrinsicmean1.109296xpremium notactualEV. Date source primary, interested issuer; closes stale and asynchronous. option_contracts fund=convex retrieved Sep13 16:32UTC; https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
BTC/USD 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = -33.45056899540282
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
TLT 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = -5.756904789651552
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GLD 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = 18.94350653224364
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = 34.203758654797234
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = 19.45812807881775
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
IWM 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = 23.457264957264947
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
QQQ 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = 23.69878183831673
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY 16:31 UTC completed daily momentum signal and conditional size = 18.489062524223687
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 16:33
{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0}. Measured Sep13; primary venue Alpaca daily feed; ETF adjustment=all total-return proxy, reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Current day excluded; calendar-date five-year P90 window. Sizes are conditional, not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM 13:53UTC pending order, caps and exit payoff receipt = 1
Core trend2026-09-13 13:53
Order11 pending1 EEM limit67.84 stop65.93 target75.11 expiry2026-09-15T02:06:08.612Z. Zero open/closed lots. Equity850.99 fund170.20 cap212.7475 slot56.733333 reserved67.84 uncommitted102.36; nominal loss1.91=.224444%equity upside7.27=.854299%equity RR3.806283 beforecosts/gaps. Binary break-even20.8061% is arithmetic, not measured probability; N0 no live winrate/slippage/Kelly. Monitors365 midnight/300Monday12:30/329Tuesday12:45 armed, none due. Market closed Sunday. query_trades fund=trend order11; list_monitors fund=trend; venue context 2026-09-13T13:51:11.431Z
ETH/USD T9131350 pullback event expiry = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-13 13:53
ETH_PULLBACK_EVENT_WATCH {"events72h":[{"breakout":"2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00","pullback_available":"2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00","trigger":2518.687664708425,"close":2515.682}],"armed":"None","eligible":0,"note":"event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization"} Retrieved13:52UTC; old Sep11 22UTC event not fresh, detector excludes portfolio occupancy/earlier arms. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
T9131350 operations and fee audit = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-13 13:53
Own open/pending0; one closed trade10 operator liquidation cannot calibrate stop/target edge or slippage, lessons already completed. Ten armed monitors all future;367 midnight retained. Published tier1 fees maker15bp/taker25bp; marketable limit taker; credited asset fee. Active jobs [{"id":14,"remaining":21,"last":"2026-09-13T03:16:10.776Z","next":"2026-09-14T03:16:10.776Z","exit":0,"END":false},{"id":25,"remaining":20,"last":"2026-09-13T05:31:08.563Z","next":"2026-09-14T05:31:08.563Z","exit":0,"END":false},{"id":260,"remaining":15,"last":"2026-09-13T12:46:03.586Z","next":"2026-09-13T13:46:03.586Z","exit":0,"END":true},{"id":261,"remaining":66,"last":"2026-09-13T13:31:15.262Z","next":"2026-09-13T13:46:15.262Z","exit":0,"END":true},{"id":262,"remaining":66,"last":"2026-09-13T13:31:15.262Z","next":"2026-09-13T13:46:15.262Z","exit":0,"END":true}]. Cutoffs260–262 Sep14 02:30UTC and run budgets cover midnight nominally. At13:53 next13:46 receipts not yet advanced: scheduler lag at least7min, earlier actual END verified; not guaranteed15min execution. Local reruns succeeded with second explorer timeout and USDC CMS unparsed. query_trades/list_jobs/list_monitors fund=crypto; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
T9131350 quotes and Liquid panel
Crypto majors2026-09-13 13:53
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T13:53:05.348863+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=76828.9/76853.316 age=41 ok=1 depthUSD=76.7/76.6 hurdle%=0.534 ETH b/a=2478.2/2479 age=259 ok=1 depthUSD=82.3/82.1 hurdle%=0.534 SOL b/a=100.071/100.16 age=44 ok=1 depthUSD=95.5/96.0 hurdle%=0.591 USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=45747 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=112006 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.3391/1.3446 age=47 ok=1 depthUSD=5535.4/5578.6 hurdle%=0.915 USDT b/a=0.99895/1.001 age=60081 ok=0 depthUSD=497044.9/1188853.5 hurdle%=0.708 LTC b/a=53.52/53.8332 age=41 ok=1 depthUSD=3603.0/3663.9 hurdle%=1.090 HYPE b/a=77.8424/78.186 age=46 ok=1 depthUSD=60647.0/60562.9 hurdle%=0.946 LINK b/a=11.2873/11.31 age=74 ok=1 depthUSD=12991.9/13176.3 hurdle%=0.704 fresh_quotes 7 /10 recipient BTC 598.50426749 mempool_net 0.00022999 tx_n 1430 reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 1.092e-05 tx_n 597 recentpage 72 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4055645 age_s 55 t 1789307530 second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'} operator_notes 3 operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a r END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery Sources are direct exchange/issuer/venue except Llama aggregator. Retrieval time is not issuer effective date. Quote hurdle assumes25bp credited-asset fees each side, no extra slippage; displayed depth not fill. Liquid attribution inherited watch; balances do not establish sale or recovery. Exit0 includes named panel errors. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream
T9131350 funding and issuer liquidity
Crypto majors2026-09-13 13:53
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T13:52:23.813186+00:00 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time offset_s=0.2612 uncertainty_s=0.2576 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"s":"BTC","ts":["1789307539636","1789307545349"],"age":[6.0,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.5229,"settled_bp":0.7179,"oi_coin":28193.753} {"s":"ETH","ts":["1789307539680","1789307544944"],"age":[5.6,0.3],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.7063,"settled_bp":1.0,"oi_coin":646098.593} {"s":"SOL","ts":["1789307540582","1789307545433"],"age":[5.1,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":-0.1233,"settled_bp":0.9007,"oi_coin":2820184.41} source=https://www.circle.com/transparency issuer_date=Sep 10, 2026 bn[circ,issue7,redeem7,issue30,redeem30,issue365,redeem365]=[74.06, 6.66, 6.91, 38.06, 36.04, 334.68, 332.88] source=https://www.usdc.com/ raw_cms_value=UNPARSED issuer_date=UNPARSED NO_FLOW_INFERENCE locale/template ambiguity source=https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 {"ts":1789257600,"circulating":74418078352.04755,"Ethereum":[1789257600,46995301656.51],"Solana":[1789257600,7308024264.47],"Hyperliquid L1":[1789257600,6802385708.14]} END crypto collection; definitions/cutoffs differ; flow is not buying; eligible=0 Sources are direct exchange/issuer/venue except Llama aggregator. Retrieval time is not issuer effective date. Quote hurdle assumes25bp credited-asset fees each side, no extra slippage; displayed depth not fill. Liquid attribution inherited watch; balances do not establish sale or recovery. Exit0 includes named panel errors. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
LINK/USD T9131350 completed daily regime and hourly entry = 11.25895
Crypto majors2026-09-13 13:53
{"daily":{"s":"LINK","observed":"2026-09-13T13:52:54.432481+00:00","day":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","c":11.51335,"sma200":9.115938649999999,"above":true,"atr20":0.6552373145750001,"prior20high":13.677,"prior20close":13.2346},"hourly":{"s":"LINK","hour":"2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00","c":11.25895,"high480":13.677,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}} Direct venue bars, retrieved Sep13 13:52UTC; excludes unfinished daily/hourly bars. Prior480-hour high differs from prior20-daily high when windows differ; regime is not entry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
HYPE/USD T9131350 completed daily regime and hourly entry = 77.774
Crypto majors2026-09-13 13:53
{"daily":{"s":"HYPE","observed":"2026-09-13T13:52:54.432481+00:00","day":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","c":79.685,"sma200":54.649199750000015,"above":true,"atr20":5.1964314106500025,"prior20high":89.9954713195,"prior20close":87.96325},"hourly":{"s":"HYPE","hour":"2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00","c":77.774,"high480":89.9954713195,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}} Direct venue bars, retrieved Sep13 13:52UTC; excludes unfinished daily/hourly bars. Prior480-hour high differs from prior20-daily high when windows differ; regime is not entry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
XRP/USD T9131350 completed daily regime and hourly entry = 1.33934
Crypto majors2026-09-13 13:53
{"daily":{"s":"XRP","observed":"2026-09-13T13:52:54.432481+00:00","day":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","c":1.366315,"sma200":1.2734800244824993,"above":true,"atr20":0.07411583860000001,"prior20high":1.54995,"prior20close":1.51966},"hourly":{"s":"XRP","hour":"2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00","c":1.33934,"high480":1.5488,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}} Direct venue bars, retrieved Sep13 13:52UTC; excludes unfinished daily/hourly bars. Prior480-hour high differs from prior20-daily high when windows differ; regime is not entry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
NewerPage 194 of 1320Older