Computed numpy seed91900,10000paths60sessions from252daily returns, joint circular5day blocks. Hypothetical fixed close-only exits,50bp exitcost, no entrycost/intraday touches/profitratchet, survivors closed60; model frequencies not live probabilities. {"recent_drift":{"basket_p05_p50_p95":[-13.693703964538782,12.875985432485985,38.35559961601006],"negative_fraction":0.1952,"stop_frequency":[0.5768,0.3935,0.4811],"target_frequency":[0.2544,0.2356,0.2997]},"zero_drift":{"basket_p05_p50_p95":[-15.94135830457819,-2.7910382519289096,17.931293901604363],"negative_fraction":0.5747,"stop_frequency":[0.7557,0.6521,0.7065],"target_frequency":[0.1024,0.0509,0.128]},"names":["XLK","XLE","XLV"],"n":10000,"seed":91900,"horizon":60,"joint_stress":47.26602936450736,"loss_to_zero_perlot":106.7}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NVT R91900 FY25 supplier structure and risk factors
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:05
FiledFeb17 forFY2025: rawmaterials majority multi-source and adequatelysupplied; alternative competitive sources for most committedmaterials. No evidenced singular commodity choke point. Risks include steel/copper/aluminum/electronics, supplyquality, Mexico/China/tradeinstability, cost inflation not fully offset by sellingprice/productivity, project subcontractors and acquisitionintegration. Broad adequatesupply disclosure does not establish availability of every cooling component; exact supplierconcentration percentage not located.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720635/000162828026008608/nvt-20251231.htm
NVT R91900 gross-margin counterevidence and tariff reimbursement = -0.7
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:05
July31 primary10Q periodQ2/H1June30: grossmargin37.9%vs38.6% (-.7pp); H137.0vs38.7(-1.7pp). Managementattributes inflation, mix, capacity investment; volume/productivity partiallyoffset. Approximately25m tariffreimbursements benefitedgrossprofit but incremental tariffs offset them. This differs from PSIX customer liability treatment; do not net25m blindly out ofFCF or add it as recurring margin.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720635/000162828026051428/nvt-20260630.htm
Friday execution receipts absent = 0
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:05
Query at00:01UTC returned[]; no ownfilled/pending/closedorders. Currentaccountallcash849.92,Coretrendretiredflat/noqueues. Friday375/383 missed, causeunknown; no evidence to attribute newestmiss to priorauthenticationoutage. Old plan not actualexposure. Coretrade11 EEM belongs otherfund, no owntrade lesson attached.
query_trades fund=trend-frac; supplied2026-09-19T00:01:05.549Z account context
Prospective basket correlation and daily downside distribution = -0.07091272110326936
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:05
AsSep18, primary adjusted SIP. Selected ex post, constant equal-weight daily basket descriptive not strategy backtest;1331 daily returns Jun2021–Sep18. {"corr60":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.22408197315356568,"XLV":-0.46584282477992034},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.22408197315356568,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.020044931678771718},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.46584282477992034,"XLE":-0.020044931678771718,"XLV":1}},"corr252":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.18019478917094045,"XLV":-0.10762663426047785},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.18019478917094045,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.039825192100027294},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.10762663426047785,"XLE":-0.039825192100027294,"XLV":1}},"worst":-0.07091272110326936,"p01":-0.027520426024856548,"latest":0.0010214650662413078}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NVT R91900 nVent Q2 cash and profit evidence = 167
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:04
Issuer July31 for quarterendedJune30; promotional incentive, financialtableprimary. Q2sales1471.3m organic46.9%, adjustedEPS1.45,GAAP1.32,adjustedROS21.9%;OCF189m/FCF167m. H1continuingOCF278.7m-capex57.6m=221.1mFCF, netincomecontinuing356.2m;cash256m,debt1492.4m. FYadjustedEPSguide5.00–5.10. H1receivablescashuse280.2m/inventory56.0m, payablecashsource145.7m. Figures historical except guidance; do not annualize highquarter as forecast.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720635/000162828026051203/q22026nvtpressrelease.htm
IWM August state employment release September18 = 4
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:04
Agency original readSep19: payrolls increased4states, essentially unchanged46+DC; unemployment lower8states+DC/stable42; national4.1% unchangedMoM. Household-based residence unemployment and establishment-location payroll surveys differ; significance, not zero numerical change. Context, no causal attribution of Friday returns.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm
IWM August industrial production release September18 = 0
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:04
Agency original readSep19: August IP0.0%MoM,+1.4%YoY; manufacturing-0.3%MoM; utilization76.3%,3.1pp below long-run average; manufacturing utilization75.7%. JulyIP+0.2% unchanged; June monthlyIP revised+0.3 to+0.2. Output estimates, not demand or profits, no independently measured surprise.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/
Proposed basket dependence and paired-block risk simulation = 74.9972351615878
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:04
Measured2026-09-19 from completedSep18 bars; static current sizes/hindsight selection, not traded strategy. {"symbols":["EEM","QQQ","IWM"],"correlation252":{"EEM":{"EEM":1,"QQQ":0.831269,"IWM":0.690365},"QQQ":{"EEM":0.831269,"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.739377},"IWM":{"EEM":0.690365,"QQQ":0.739377,"IWM":1}},"sample252":252,"joint_down_days252":74,"static_daily_loss_p99":8.159653071998484,"static_worst_daily_loss252":13.786708170760487,"friday_static_pnl":0.42421287008177616,"planned":276.8,"residual":131.15999999999997,"normal_stop_loss":6.793497009709811,"target_gain":37.05073648648277,"double_gap_loss":74.9972351615878,"simulation":{"draws":10000,"history_days":756,"block_days":5,"seed":919,"p01_dollar":-13.839929013661607,"p05_dollar":-9.600495284747804,"median_dollar":1.4696296400799544,"prob_negative":0.3946,"worst_sample_dollar":-33.63519719790359}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
Sep18 released August state labor
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
Primary BLS Sep18 10ET: unemployment down8states+DC,stable42;payrolls up4states,essentially unchanged46+DC; national unemployment4.1%. Household residence-based modeled unemployment differs from establishment location-based payrolls; statistically unchanged not exactly zero.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm
Sep18 released August production
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
Primary agency Sep18 release, August preliminary:IP0.0%MoM/+1.4%YoY, manufacturing-.3%MoM, mining+.1%,utilities+1.8%,business equipment-.5%,energy materials+.7%; utilization76.3%,3.1pp belowlongrun; manufacturing75.7%. JulyIP+.2 unchanged; June+.2vs+.3previous,May+.1vs.0. Output estimates not demand or earnings, subject revisions.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm