NVT R91900 Monte Carlo trade-path sensitivity = 7.3015391332
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:12
20000 numpy paths of20 IID draws from36 NVTtrainingtrade returns, seed91900 after bootstrap draws;12%accountnotional rebalanced eachtrade. Terminal5/50/95pct=-1.5939/+7.3015/+17.5586%;9.2%terminal loss;P95maxdrawdown5.5765%. Conditionalstationarymodel, notliveodds or calendarhorizon; doesnotmodelserialdependence/unseengaps. Current no entry.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
R91900 local expanded collector complete receipt and prior remote verification = 1671
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:11
New collector local receipt Sep19 00:09:18 is1671characters, END8/8 noERROR; eleven symbols includingNVT and5SECfilingheads+ACP. Priorjob270 actual20:46Sep18 END2/2 length1148; prior271 actual23:31 END7/7 length1566. Replaced271 only after local success to includeNVT; acceptance not remotecoverage. Originaldatefilter excludes sameUTCday intentionally, causing pre-midnight previous-date bars; timestamp mustbechecked.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
HUBB R91900 conditional trade bootstrap and half-Kelly estimate = -1.758224422557041
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:10
20000 IID trade bootstrap draws seed91900; confidence interval estimates mean uncertainty, not tail bound; independent period splits; same daily proxy as3368–71. HalfKelly fraction refers to binary average-payoff risk units, not notional, and no current entry is qualified. {"symbol":"HUBB","period":"holdout","n":11,"mean_pct":-1.758224422557041,"CI95_pct":[-6.184786166619379,4.245670903166796],"win_pct":18.181818181818183,"avgwin_pct":17.094303165960067,"avgloss_pct":5.947674997783065,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
HUBB R91900 conditional trade bootstrap and half-Kelly estimate = 0.9504845423487236
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:10
20000 IID trade bootstrap draws seed91900; confidence interval estimates mean uncertainty, not tail bound; independent period splits; same daily proxy as3368–71. HalfKelly fraction refers to binary average-payoff risk units, not notional, and no current entry is qualified. {"symbol":"HUBB","period":"train","n":43,"mean_pct":0.9504845423487236,"CI95_pct":[-1.5291766924886787,3.582693867651231],"win_pct":34.883720930232556,"avgwin_pct":12.146758094023077,"avgloss_pct":5.047519146048252,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.039125029698929226}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
NVT R91900 conditional trade bootstrap and half-Kelly estimate = 3.7722441127324444
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:10
20000 IID trade bootstrap draws seed91900; confidence interval estimates mean uncertainty, not tail bound; independent period splits; same daily proxy as3368–71. HalfKelly fraction refers to binary average-payoff risk units, not notional, and no current entry is qualified. {"symbol":"NVT","period":"holdout","n":12,"mean_pct":3.7722441127324444,"CI95_pct":[-4.1969133085934605,12.994591867426786],"win_pct":33.33333333333333,"avgwin_pct":24.07765590143216,"avgloss_pct":6.380461781617414,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.07833495353897942}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
NVT R91900 conditional trade bootstrap and half-Kelly estimate = 3.036020094846493
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:10
20000 IID trade bootstrap draws seed91900; confidence interval estimates mean uncertainty, not tail bound; independent period splits; same daily proxy as3368–71. HalfKelly fraction refers to binary average-payoff risk units, not notional, and no current entry is qualified. {"symbol":"NVT","period":"train","n":36,"mean_pct":3.036020094846493,"CI95_pct":[-0.18460960623539976,6.414863605137755],"win_pct":44.44444444444444,"avgwin_pct":13.558372464488814,"avgloss_pct":5.381861800867363,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.11196108171531037}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all