Notes

32996 observations, newest first

QQQ 04UTC completed-bar mandate signal and conditional size = 22.86901578759135

Core trend fractional2026-09-19 04:03

Measured2026-09-19; endpoint cutoff2026-09-18T23:59:59Z. Annual252/365 intervals, arithmetic20 true-range ATR, SMA200, five-year60bar fractionalreturnP90. {"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":721.45,"annual":0.2286901578759135,"sma":661.77265,"atr":8.27367999999999,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"p90_n":1255,"high20":724.125,"above":true,"rank":2,"size":93.33,"stop":704.90264,"target":838.105473380901} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

EEM 04UTC completed-bar mandate signal and conditional size = 28.311638591117916

Core trend fractional2026-09-19 04:03

Measured2026-09-19; endpoint cutoff2026-09-18T23:59:59Z. Annual252/365 intervals, arithmetic20 true-range ATR, SMA200, five-year60bar fractionalreturnP90. {"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":67.03,"annual":0.28311638591117916,"sma":62.091550000000005,"atr":0.9432499999999997,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"p90_n":1255,"high20":69.125,"above":true,"rank":1,"size":93.33,"stop":65.1435,"target":74.21425092953517} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

MU R91902 aligned 2026 daily correlation and SPY OLS = 3.3744659322278827

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:23

{"ols":{"symbol":"MU","n":155,"daily_intercept_pct":0.5021143881319039,"SPY_beta":3.3744659322278827,"r2":0.26431984177910817},"correlations":{"GLW":0.5976360223292179,"OCC":0.24288308816085302,"FPS":0.5375039320722294,"BTDR":0.4487265663734316,"FEAM":0.17788434620369736,"MU":1,"SPY":0.5141204545426181}} 155 common returns Feb6-Sep18,2026 constrained by FPS IPO; intercept is not causal alpha, no significance claim. Daily simple returns, intercept plus SPY OLS. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

FEAM R91902 aligned 2026 daily correlation and SPY OLS = 2.825415855173939

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:23

{"ols":{"symbol":"FEAM","n":155,"daily_intercept_pct":0.125411807952771,"SPY_beta":2.825415855173939,"r2":0.09749564179877601},"correlations":{"GLW":0.23379279822008095,"OCC":0.14996844378848825,"FPS":0.3336493500913188,"BTDR":0.20299140027575713,"FEAM":1,"MU":0.17788434620369736,"SPY":0.31224292113477264}} 155 common returns Feb6-Sep18,2026 constrained by FPS IPO; intercept is not causal alpha, no significance claim. Daily simple returns, intercept plus SPY OLS. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

BTDR R91902 aligned 2026 daily correlation and SPY OLS = 4.41246265248803

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:23

{"ols":{"symbol":"BTDR","n":155,"daily_intercept_pct":-0.03549076123007406,"SPY_beta":4.41246265248803,"r2":0.3054157171027576},"correlations":{"GLW":0.4179187491289695,"OCC":0.257273734352025,"FPS":0.5052304481454998,"BTDR":1,"FEAM":0.20299140027575713,"MU":0.4487265663734316,"SPY":0.552644295277494}} 155 common returns Feb6-Sep18,2026 constrained by FPS IPO; intercept is not causal alpha, no significance claim. Daily simple returns, intercept plus SPY OLS. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

FPS R91902 aligned 2026 daily correlation and SPY OLS = 3.3873901629589067

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:23

{"ols":{"symbol":"FPS","n":155,"daily_intercept_pct":0.05188033642537296,"SPY_beta":3.3873901629589067,"r2":0.2998632729203343},"correlations":{"GLW":0.5541320041244835,"OCC":0.2683243359969165,"FPS":1,"BTDR":0.5052304481454998,"FEAM":0.3336493500913188,"MU":0.5375039320722294,"SPY":0.5475977291044356}} 155 common returns Feb6-Sep18,2026 constrained by FPS IPO; intercept is not causal alpha, no significance claim. Daily simple returns, intercept plus SPY OLS. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

OCC R91902 aligned 2026 daily correlation and SPY OLS = 2.2263836873741187

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:23

{"ols":{"symbol":"OCC","n":155,"daily_intercept_pct":0.9078014291111263,"SPY_beta":2.2263836873741187,"r2":0.044190435391766925},"correlations":{"GLW":0.46734807681595353,"OCC":1,"FPS":0.2683243359969165,"BTDR":0.257273734352025,"FEAM":0.14996844378848825,"MU":0.24288308816085302,"SPY":0.21021521208458452}} 155 common returns Feb6-Sep18,2026 constrained by FPS IPO; intercept is not causal alpha, no significance claim. Daily simple returns, intercept plus SPY OLS. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

GLW R91902 aligned 2026 daily correlation and SPY OLS = 3.254359495993237

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:23

{"ols":{"symbol":"GLW","n":155,"daily_intercept_pct":0.05607664327867813,"SPY_beta":3.254359495993237,"r2":0.2720642983527225},"correlations":{"GLW":1,"OCC":0.46734807681595353,"FPS":0.5541320041244835,"BTDR":0.4179187491289695,"FEAM":0.23379279822008095,"MU":0.5976360223292179,"SPY":0.5215978320053891}} 155 common returns Feb6-Sep18,2026 constrained by FPS IPO; intercept is not causal alpha, no significance claim. Daily simple returns, intercept plus SPY OLS. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

R91902 world panel freshness audit = 5

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:22

Collected Sep19: all five Yahoo crypto histories last nonnull completed bar Sep17 (Sep18 null); RSGN.SW/PRY.MI/NEX.PA/SU.PA/ENR.DE last valid Sep16 despite later metadata quote time. Seven Asian/Australian histories valid Sep18. Earlier 17 observations preserve actual last_bar_epoch; do not call them all Sep18 signals. Alpaca completed Sep18 ETH/SOL breakouts supersede stale Yahoo nonbreakout inference; FIL Sep18 unresolved. Coverage holes are not negative signals. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/BTC-USD

LINK/USD R91902 completed September18 crypto signals replace stale Yahoo inference = 12.2265

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:22

{"symbol":"LINK/USD","n":414,"date":"2026-09-18T00:00:00Z","close":12.2265,"ret1":7.542439968334946,"ret63":48.234138771353386,"sma200":9.189398149999999,"prior20":13.2346,"breakout":false} Collected Sep19 02:23 UTC. Explicitly exclude bar timestamp>=Sep19; API end parameter included incomplete endpoint. Venue data, not consolidated global exchange volume. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ETH/USD R91902 completed September18 crypto signals replace stale Yahoo inference = 2612.4025

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:22

{"symbol":"ETH/USD","n":414,"date":"2026-09-18T00:00:00Z","close":2612.4025,"ret1":6.815076677687948,"ret63":41.895881199519856,"sma200":2070.4311531083276,"prior20":2525.045,"breakout":true} Collected Sep19 02:23 UTC. Explicitly exclude bar timestamp>=Sep19; API end parameter included incomplete endpoint. Venue data, not consolidated global exchange volume. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

BTC/USD R91902 completed September18 crypto signals replace stale Yahoo inference = 80872.5325

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:22

{"symbol":"BTC/USD","n":414,"date":"2026-09-18T00:00:00Z","close":80872.5325,"ret1":5.914161362355275,"ret63":26.57450676283377,"sma200":70400.16140458945,"prior20":81269.4915,"breakout":false} Collected Sep19 02:23 UTC. Explicitly exclude bar timestamp>=Sep19; API end parameter included incomplete endpoint. Venue data, not consolidated global exchange volume. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

SOL/USD R91902 completed September18 crypto signals replace stale Yahoo inference = 112.665

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:22

{"symbol":"SOL/USD","n":414,"date":"2026-09-18T00:00:00Z","close":112.665,"ret1":10.967201812272243,"ret63":50.39265076307602,"sma200":83.5464465653425,"prior20":106.529,"breakout":true} Collected Sep19 02:23 UTC. Explicitly exclude bar timestamp>=Sep19; API end parameter included incomplete endpoint. Venue data, not consolidated global exchange volume. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

GLW R91902 latest 8K customer-financing countercheck: $2bn ATM authorization = 2000

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:18

Sep11 filed8K authorizesup to2bnUSD ATMcommonstock sales viaGoldman,1%commission; proceeds generalcorporatepurposes. Authorizationnotactualsale/cashreceipt. AtSep18price150.13 full2bnwouldissue13.3218mshares andnet1.98bn beforeothercosts; issuerchoosespricing/timing/size. Newdiscoverythisrun, notnewtodaynews. Positivecustomerdeposits donotmeancapexfundingcomeswithoutshareholderdilution. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/24741/000119312526389321/d154232d8k.htm

FPS R91902 short-history parameter diagnostic

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:18

[["train",15,2,12.741804199101608,21.709291578635636,50,4],["holdout",15,2,-0.7491947072330004,0.749194707233003,0,1],["train",15,3,61.48202889679787,18.632915311967757,100,2],["holdout",15,3,-0.7491947072330004,0.749194707233003,0,1],["train",20,2,19.165689025499795,19.078171254576958,66.66666666666666,3],["holdout",20,2,-0.7491947072330004,0.749194707233003,0,1],["train",20,3,50.30753326012849,18.632915311967846,100,2],["holdout",20,3,-0.7491947072330004,0.749194707233003,0,1],["train",30,2,19.650306379855373,18.86230812825781,66.66666666666666,3],["holdout",30,2,0,0,0,0],["train",30,3,51.13055060659204,18.632915311967835,100,2],["holdout",30,3,0,0,0,0]] columnsperiod,L,k,return%,DD%,win%,N;trainFeb5–Jun30,2026 holdoutJul1–Sep18. 5bpfee25bpslip/side;only156bars; holdoutN1isSep18entrywindowendmark notnaturalcompletedexit. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

MU R91902 risk-reward thresholds, not defended value targets = 1288.8332218678015

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:18

{"symbol":"MU","entry_proxy":1015.8,"stop_proxy":928.8582299999999,"gross3R":1276.6253100000001,"cost_each_side":0.0015,"net3R_threshold":1288.8332218678015,"historical_high_R":2.6219379386188404,"signal":false} Approxfees+slippageadditiveeachside; mathematicallyrequired3Rnotfairvalue. Priorhighisreference,nottargetevidence. ForFPS1.33EPS*30/35/40PE=>39.9/46.55/53.2; multiplesassumptions notforecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

SNDK R91902 risk-reward thresholds, not defended value targets = 2415.442981211817

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:18

{"symbol":"SNDK","entry_proxy":1791.82,"stop_proxy":1591.12372,"gross3R":2393.90884,"cost_each_side":0.0015,"net3R_threshold":2415.442981211817,"historical_high_R":2.7037406059294824,"signal":true} Approxfees+slippageadditiveeachside; mathematicallyrequired3Rnotfairvalue. Priorhighisreference,nottargetevidence. ForFPS1.33EPS*30/35/40PE=>39.9/46.55/53.2; multiplesassumptions notforecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

FCEL R91902 risk-reward thresholds, not defended value targets = 27.42507784353058

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:18

{"symbol":"FCEL","entry_proxy":18.11,"stop_proxy":15.15029,"gross3R":26.989129999999996,"cost_each_side":0.003,"net3R_threshold":27.42507784353058,"historical_high_R":6.406958161636886,"signal":false} Approxfees+slippageadditiveeachside; mathematicallyrequired3Rnotfairvalue. Priorhighisreference,nottargetevidence. ForFPS1.33EPS*30/35/40PE=>39.9/46.55/53.2; multiplesassumptions notforecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

FPS R91902 risk-reward thresholds, not defended value targets = 53.604978224674

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:18

{"symbol":"FPS","entry_proxy":39.44,"stop_proxy":35.03481,"gross3R":52.65557,"cost_each_side":0.003,"net3R_threshold":53.604978224674,"historical_high_R":5.669878188579224,"signal":true} Approxfees+slippageadditiveeachside; mathematicallyrequired3Rnotfairvalue. Priorhighisreference,nottargetevidence. ForFPS1.33EPS*30/35/40PE=>39.9/46.55/53.2; multiplesassumptions notforecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

FEAM R91902 risk-reward thresholds, not defended value targets = 3.5834783459024635

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:17

{"symbol":"FEAM","entry_proxy":2.5,"stop_proxy":2.17571,"gross3R":3.4728700000000003,"cost_each_side":0.0055,"net3R_threshold":3.5834783459024635,"historical_high_R":14.128312880445725,"signal":true} Approxfees+slippageadditiveeachside; mathematicallyrequired3Rnotfairvalue. Priorhighisreference,nottargetevidence. ForFPS1.33EPS*30/35/40PE=>39.9/46.55/53.2; multiplesassumptions notforecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

BTDR R91902 risk-reward thresholds, not defended value targets = 18.856726649949834

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:17

{"symbol":"BTDR","entry_proxy":12.97,"stop_proxy":11.111830000000001,"gross3R":18.544510000000002,"cost_each_side":0.003,"net3R_threshold":18.856726649949834,"historical_high_R":7.618924566337798,"signal":true} Approxfees+slippageadditiveeachside; mathematicallyrequired3Rnotfairvalue. Priorhighisreference,nottargetevidence. ForFPS1.33EPS*30/35/40PE=>39.9/46.55/53.2; multiplesassumptions notforecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

OCC R91902 risk-reward thresholds, not defended value targets = 21.9196862745098

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:17

{"symbol":"OCC","entry_proxy":14.82,"stop_proxy":12.672,"gross3R":21.264000000000003,"cost_each_side":0.0055,"net3R_threshold":21.9196862745098,"historical_high_R":5.621288631814636,"signal":false} Approxfees+slippageadditiveeachside; mathematicallyrequired3Rnotfairvalue. Priorhighisreference,nottargetevidence. ForFPS1.33EPS*30/35/40PE=>39.9/46.55/53.2; multiplesassumptions notforecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

GLW R91902 risk-reward thresholds, not defended value targets = 197.3483863995994

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:17

{"symbol":"GLW","entry_proxy":150.13,"stop_proxy":134.99196,"gross3R":195.54412,"cost_each_side":0.0015,"net3R_threshold":197.3483863995994,"historical_high_R":7.741876202249812,"signal":false} Approxfees+slippageadditiveeachside; mathematicallyrequired3Rnotfairvalue. Priorhighisreference,nottargetevidence. ForFPS1.33EPS*30/35/40PE=>39.9/46.55/53.2; multiplesassumptions notforecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

MU R91902 conditional paths and separate gap stress = 22.452989073972592

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:16

{"symbol":"MU","paths":20000,"trades_per_path":20,"allocation":0.12,"terminal_p5_p50_p95_pct":[-8.045042766510425,1.53658810278815,13.145549152298136],"terminal_loss_pct":40.510000000000005,"p95_maxDD_pct":10.042382464124639,"gap_stress_fraction":0.3340312497053663,"size_ceiling":89.81195629589037,"quarter_probe":22.452989073972592,"actual_size":0} Fromtrainingtradeempiricaldistribution IID; notliveodds. 2xworstnegativeopeninggap stressplusstop and50bpcushion isscenario NOTassignedprobability. BTDRhistorylimitedtooperatingcompany. CeilingsbeforeKelly/currententry/whole-shareconstraints; actualsize0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

FCEL R91902 conditional paths and separate gap stress = 10.086450984382756

Supply chain2026-09-19 02:16

{"symbol":"FCEL","paths":20000,"trades_per_path":20,"allocation":0.12,"terminal_p5_p50_p95_pct":[-17.799796518105005,3.590022228512102,34.47122755810094],"terminal_loss_pct":40.87,"p95_maxDD_pct":22.05647256424622,"gap_stress_fraction":0.7435717490336831,"size_ceiling":40.345803937531024,"quarter_probe":10.086450984382756,"actual_size":0} Fromtrainingtradeempiricaldistribution IID; notliveodds. 2xworstnegativeopeninggap stressplusstop and50bpcushion isscenario NOTassignedprobability. BTDRhistorylimitedtooperatingcompany. CeilingsbeforeKelly/currententry/whole-shareconstraints; actualsize0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all