Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
SFIX Earnings event 2025-03-11 close reaction % = -5.437352245862892
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 4.23; next 2025-03-12 open 4.87, close 4; gap 15.130023640661939%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Second-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call-02-18-2025/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2024-12-10 close reaction % = 44.34782608695653
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 4.6; next 2024-12-11 open 5.748, close 6.64; gap 24.956521739130455%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2024/Stitch-Fix-Announces-First-Quarter-of-Fiscal-Year-2025-Financial-Results-12-10-2024/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2024-09-24 close reaction % = -39.46666666666666
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 3.75; next 2024-09-25 open 2.69, close 2.27; gap -28.266666666666673%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://s21.q4cdn.com/158972969/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/stitch-fix-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full.pdf
SFIX Earnings event 2024-06-04 close reaction % = 29.40074906367043
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 2.67; next 2024-06-05 open 3.14, close 3.455; gap 17.602996254681646%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2024/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Third-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call-05-21-2024/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2024-03-04 close reaction % = -21.036585365853654
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 3.28; next 2024-03-05 open 2.71, close 2.59; gap -17.3780487804878%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2024/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Second-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call-02-20-2024/default.aspx
OCC R91904 Supplier expansion timing = 2028
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
Aug13,2026 supplier announcement: US/Brazil/Japan/India expansion backed by longtermpurchasecommitments, progressive capacityfromsecondhalfFY2028. No quantifiedOCCallocation. March12 separateMie highcountcableplant alreadyoperatingFeb2026 and>2xFY2023capacity https://www.furukawaelectric.com/en/release/2026/comm_20260312.html ; cablecapacity distinctfrom upstreamdrawavailability. https://lightera.com/n/lightera-announces-global-manufacturing-expansion-to-support-growing-ai-infrastructure-demand/
OCC R91904 Lightera put liquidity structure = 2000000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
Jul7,2025 agreement, read5.9:642199shares for2m; put ordinarilyJul7,2027,earlytriggerpossible. Cashpurchase obligation generallycappedtotaloriginalinvestment; remaindercooperation, registrationor note alternatives;shortfallcash/note/shareprovisionssubjectlenderobjection. Not an unconditional cashrepurchase ofallshares atcurrentprice, nor no obligationabove2m. Notguaranteedfiberallocation. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774925022531/ex_837294.htm
OCC R91904 FY25 risk-disclosure and capacity scope = 50
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
Dec18,2025 10K FYOct31: approx50%equipmentcapacity assuming fullystaffed24/7/365; mix-specific equipment/labor constraints mean not immediately availablecapacity. Smallerreportingcompany Item1A exempt; risk discussion incorporated Exhibit13.1. No quantifiedsupplierpurchaseshare in reviewedsections; unknown notzero. FY25employees348,insideremployeeownership>=33.5%,shares8870070. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774925038228/occ20251031_10k.htm
OCC R91904 Sep9 direct operator supply and backlog statements = 13500000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
Q3Jul31backlog13.5m vsApr3013.3m/Jan3110.4m/Oct317.3m; most expected2–3quarters, no typical duration. Fiber shortage primary shipment impediment; longer raw-material leadtimes; current staff additionsRoanoke/Dallas. Beginning Lightera product sales unquantified; primary focusMTDC/enterprise, Googlecampus onlyopportunity. No disclosed guaranteed allocation or passthrough percentage. Issuer management promotional incentives; same-origin as financialrelease, not independentcorroboration. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926030174/ex_1014929.htm
OCC R91904 Jul31 liquidity and distributor concentration = 6600000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
IssuerSep9 asJul31 cash297193,AR11842621,inventory22938467,currentassets35569097/currentliabilities16408881,revolver6329173,termdebt2639815; availablecredit6.6m versus4.7mOct31. Lockbox daily cashsweep, borrowingbase85%eligibleAR+min(35%eligibleinventory,7m,ARloanvalue)-1.15m;18mcap;8.25%rate;Jul24,2027maturity; subjectiveacceleration,no default advised. Q3 distributors12.3%+10.7%;9m largest14.8%. Cashbalance notstandalone solvency measure. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
OCC R91904 FY26 nine-month cash bridge = 147635
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
Issuer Sep9 for9mJul31: OCF147635 vs616745 prior; PPEcapex424600,intangibles27818,disposals976. ARcash absorption1575499; inventory3136713; AP/accrual source399837; compensation source882388; D&A584792; SBC387546. Not all working capital consumption is upstream pricing. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
OCC R91904 FY26 Q3 and nine-month operating results = 24300000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
Issuer filed Sep9 2026, period Jul31. Exact Q3 revenue 24,297,022; COGS15,202,314; GP9,094,708; SG&A6,962,706; operating income2,111,632; net income1,858,117; interest247,112; tax8,563. 9m revenue62,941,623; GP22,058,920; SG&A18,790,608; EBIT3,207,203; NI2,515,405. Q3 FY25 revenue19,916,919/GP6,319,311/EBIT562,474/NI301,886. Closest financial primary, unaudited. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic simulation
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"paths":20000,"days":63,"seed":190904,"p50_max_gap_loss":3.712445037432146,"p95_max_gap_loss":16.167347073188612,"p99_max_gap_loss":16.230466835936937,"share_any_gap_loss_over_bracket":0.34035,"note":"Static one-share price exposure; maximum single gap loss, not cumulative PnL or live exit odds; ignores intranight fills"} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_split_recent
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"n":251,"correlation":-0.4093683419686095,"both_below_minus2_n":0,"worst_loss":3.6555454538464427,"worst_date":"2026-06-23","p99_loss":2.1916129199633776,"tail_n":13,"xle_negative_given_eem_tail":0.15384615384615385,"tail_xle_mean":0.010574841933990668} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_split_fiveyear
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"n":1255,"correlation":0.15747707639517688,"both_below_minus2_n":11,"worst_loss":4.981223959669606,"worst_date":"2025-04-07","p99_loss":3.478349051632395,"tail_n":63,"xle_negative_given_eem_tail":0.5555555555555556,"tail_xle_mean":-0.0051219687438774615} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_split_full
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"n":1938,"correlation":0.46018205794832495,"both_below_minus2_n":28,"worst_loss":16.230466835936937,"worst_date":"2020-03-16","p99_loss":3.9134696194108787,"tail_n":97,"xle_negative_given_eem_tail":0.6804123711340206,"tail_xle_mean":-0.014574339236948543} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
XLE R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic XLE_split
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"full":{"n":1938,"min":-0.1748235294117647,"min_date":"2020-03-09","p01":-0.03821885191780553,"p05":-0.018300546084795765,"breach_n":4,"breach_den":1919,"max_overrun":0.09836470588235292},"fiveyear":{"n":1255,"min":-0.05784574468085102,"min_date":"2026-04-08","p01":-0.0362569790643878,"p05":-0.01709858721523182,"breach_n":3,"breach_den":1255,"max_overrun":0.012066503771379994},"recent":{"n":251,"min":-0.05784574468085102,"min_date":"2026-04-08","p01":-0.03734291390889927,"p05":-0.014480978412713619,"breach_n":1,"breach_den":251,"max_overrun":0.010639960106382913}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
EEM R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic EEM_split
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"full":{"n":1938,"min":-0.11455451023796348,"min_date":"2020-03-16","p01":-0.030611549831057894,"p05":-0.017353391851074602,"breach_n":21,"breach_den":1919,"max_overrun":0.034298284449363586},"fiveyear":{"n":1255,"min":-0.057398373983739814,"min_date":"2026-03-03","p01":-0.028201780023456736,"p05":-0.016618198603658228,"breach_n":11,"breach_den":1255,"max_overrun":0.028653605769230914},"recent":{"n":251,"min":-0.057398373983739814,"min_date":"2026-03-03","p01":-0.03310334844085783,"p05":-0.02265488856083392,"breach_n":2,"breach_den":251,"max_overrun":0.019375609756097555}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_recent
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"n":251,"correlation":-0.41679022576924013,"both_below_minus2_n":0,"worst_loss":3.6555454538464427,"worst_date":"2026-06-23","p99_loss":2.181852742387453,"tail_n":13,"xle_negative_given_eem_tail":0.15384615384615385,"tail_xle_mean":0.010586457133561015} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_fiveyear
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"n":1255,"correlation":0.1541124527877515,"both_below_minus2_n":11,"worst_loss":4.97832962124513,"worst_date":"2025-04-07","p99_loss":3.291432888341482,"tail_n":63,"xle_negative_given_eem_tail":0.5555555555555556,"tail_xle_mean":-0.005075777829803897} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_full
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"n":1938,"correlation":0.46189880677144696,"both_below_minus2_n":27,"worst_loss":16.202745527979015,"worst_date":"2020-03-16","p99_loss":3.8575129109861246,"tail_n":97,"xle_negative_given_eem_tail":0.6907216494845361,"tail_xle_mean":-0.014714709338754451} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
XLE R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic XLE_all
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"full":{"n":1938,"min":-0.17486170866625683,"min_date":"2020-03-09","p01":-0.03642167627304516,"p05":-0.01791828297156011,"breach_n":4,"breach_den":1919,"max_overrun":0.0984019668100798},"fiveyear":{"n":1255,"min":-0.0579273396952954,"min_date":"2026-04-08","p01":-0.03526714409354762,"p05":-0.01701188614087785,"breach_n":3,"breach_den":1255,"max_overrun":0.01197128658199887},"recent":{"n":251,"min":-0.0579273396952954,"min_date":"2026-04-08","p01":-0.037353370749173664,"p05":-0.014532800553828662,"breach_n":1,"breach_den":251,"max_overrun":0.01083207768290631}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
EEM R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic EEM_all
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE2:1 missing split repaired per observation29327. Gaps not actual fills; dates of returns Jan2019-Sep18 2026. {"full":{"n":1938,"min":-0.11435832274459978,"min_date":"2020-03-16","p01":-0.030141725665762783,"p05":-0.01697085602474182,"breach_n":19,"breach_den":1919,"max_overrun":0.03398983481575607},"fiveyear":{"n":1255,"min":-0.05737169009480214,"min_date":"2026-03-03","p01":-0.028195522693937148,"p05":-0.01597660117152817,"breach_n":9,"breach_den":1255,"max_overrun":0.028636134876698593},"recent":{"n":251,"min":-0.05737169009480214,"min_date":"2026-03-03","p01":-0.03305639704402391,"p05":-0.02265488856083392,"breach_n":2,"breach_den":251,"max_overrun":0.019385420071918798}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
XLRE R91904 completed Sep18 momentum, normalized corporate actions = 0.0001291348666397074
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
{"symbol":"XLRE","close":42.53,"sma200":42.77705,"atr20":0.5022400000000001,"returns":{"21":-0.054678817515003364,"63":-0.021849126034958477,"126":0.030281007751937983,"252":0.04676347526458269},"score":0.0001291348666397074,"eligible":false,"limit":42.74,"stop":41.74,"p90":0.10853497921567627,"target":47.38,"sample":1255,"bars":1332,"date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLRE&timeframe=1Day&start=2021-06-01T00%3A00%3A00Z&end=2026-09-18T23%3A59%3A00Z&adjustment=all&feed=sip&limit=10000","qty":0,"rank":8,"repair":"none"} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLRE&timeframe=1Day&start=2021-06-01T00%3A00%3A00Z&end=2026-09-18T23%3A59%3A00Z&adjustment=all&feed=sip&limit=10000
XLU R91904 completed Sep18 momentum, normalized corporate actions = -0.06139544536924166
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
{"symbol":"XLU","close":41.1,"sma200":44.222125,"atr20":0.6355299999999993,"returns":{"21":-0.06633348477964562,"63":-0.07598920863309344,"126":-0.10496515679442509,"252":0.0017060687301975186},"score":-0.06139544536924166,"eligible":false,"limit":41.31,"stop":40.04,"p90":0.10239288498446239,"target":45.54,"sample":1255,"bars":1332,"date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLU&timeframe=1Day&start=2021-06-01T00%3A00%3A00Z&end=2026-09-18T23%3A59%3A00Z&adjustment=all&feed=sip&limit=10000","qty":0,"rank":11,"repair":"Verified missing 2:1 Dec5 2025; divide pre-date prices by2, multiply volume2. XLY/XLB already consistent: no repair."} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLU&timeframe=1Day&start=2021-06-01T00%3A00%3A00Z&end=2026-09-18T23%3A59%3A00Z&adjustment=all&feed=sip&limit=10000
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