Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
OCC R91904 measured scenarios table
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:09
[{"name":"stress","revenue_m":85,"gm":0.32,"sga_m":26,"interest_m":1,"tax":0.25,"PE":15,"EPS":0.010053128107320165,"value":0.15079692160980246,"upside_pct":-98.98247691221455},{"name":"current_runrate","revenue_m":97.188088,"gm":0.3743178,"sga_m":27.850824,"interest_m":0.988448,"tax":0.25,"PE":20,"EPS":0.6326446823458972,"value":12.652893646917944,"upside_pct":-14.622849885843836},{"name":"growth","revenue_m":110,"gm":0.38,"sga_m":30,"interest_m":1.1,"tax":0.25,"PE":22,"EPS":0.9006863134504044,"value":19.815098895908896,"upside_pct":33.70512075512075},{"name":"bull","revenue_m":120,"gm":0.4,"sga_m":31.5,"interest_m":1.2,"tax":0.25,"PE":25,"EPS":1.2908684708388036,"value":32.27171177097009,"upside_pct":117.7578392103245}] Analystassumptionsnotguidance;stressnearzeroEPSmultipleisnotassetfloororcredibleliquidationtarget; no probabilities assigned. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
OCC R91904 measured fundamental table
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:09
{"nine_month_FCF":-304783,"Q3_OCF":1505871,"Q3_FCF":1291795,"Q3_AP_and_comp_financing":1579666,"Q3_OCF_without_APcomp_increase":-73795,"Q3_AR_inventory_absorption":2435956,"Q3_WIP_growth":859716,"Q3_rawmaterial_growth":1277486,"Q3_finishedgoods_change":-438101,"Q3_cashconversion_pct":81.04285144584544,"nine_month_cashconversion_pct":5.8692337814387745,"Q3_GM_pct":37.431369161208316,"Q2_GM_pct":34.18821025598409,"Q3_operatingmargin_pct":8.690908704778717,"Q2_operatingmargin_pct":5.869662278763243,"Q3_sequential_revenue_growth_pct":9.378811564747181,"Q3_incremental_grossmargin_pct":72.0110052146132,"Q3_backlog_growth_pct":1.5037593984962294,"backlog_to_quarter_revenue_pct":55.56236480339031,"marketcap":131038795.68,"Q3_annualized_reported_EPS":0.8412962617307992,"Q3_annualized_25pct_tax_EPS":0.6338799867746413,"Q3_annualized_normalized_PE":23.379820011999914,"net_bankdebt":8671795,"DSO_ending_proxy":44.841755997916124,"DIO_ending_proxy":138.81695668172623,"customer_advances_to_inventory_pct":1.1022576181747454} DerivedQ3flow=9mJul31minus6mApr30 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926019811/occ20260430_10q.htm . EndingDSO/DIOproxiesnotaging. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
SFIX Technical state at September18 completed close = 2.84
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:09
MeasuredSep19 from931dailybars. SMA20 3.04725/SMA50 3.504/SMA200 3.9037; arithmeticATR20 .1217, Wilder-styleRSI14 34.58576, trailing252high5.94/low2.81, latestvolume3014686=2.015883x preceding20mean;20sessionreturn-14.97006%,annualizedsampleRV20 41.42043%. No missing-date interpolation or unfinishedbar; updated52weeklow is adverse trend, not 52weekhigh entry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
OCC R91904 measured statistical table
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:09
{"N":179,"corr_OCC_GLW":0.48171780410609866,"corr_OCC_SPY":0.199248205258496,"OLS_beta":2.0594354672696915,"OLS_daily_intercept_pct":0.8690581218212,"OLS_R2":0.03969984729873166,"daily_quantiles_pct":{"p01":-13.270537040967955,"p05":-10.470924219091184,"p50":-0.2845399936768911,"p95":14.801801997612479,"p99":28.674204708069023}} ComputedSep19from2693adjusteddailybars2016–Sep18;2026correlationN179. OLSnotcausalalpha. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OCC,GLW,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
OCC R91904 measured technical table
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:09
{"date":"2026-09-18T04:00:00Z","close":14.82,"prior20high":14.92,"SMA50":14.724200000000002,"SMA200":11.020249999999999,"ATR20":1.0740000000000003,"ATRpct":7.246963562753038,"stop":12.672,"net3R_target":21.919686274509807,"target_upside_pct":47.90611521261678,"max252_high":27.9799,"drawdown_from252_high_pct":-47.033406123681644,"median20volume":197561,"worst252gap_pct":-18.854415274463022,"best252gap_pct":59.43089430894308,"one_share_stoprisk":2.299206,"one_share_50pct_gap_loss":7.41} ComputedSep19from2693adjusteddailybars2016–Sep18;2026correlationN179. OLSnotcausalalpha. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OCC,GLW,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
OCC R91904 specific stocked assemblies can coexist with fiber shortage
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:09
RetrievedSep19; filepathFeb2026, exactpublicationunverified. Issuermarketingclaimsstrongonhandinventory/leadtimebetterthanmarket/nextdaydeliveryqualifyingorders;MTDCenterprise rollableribbontrunks. NotmeasuredfillrateorallSKUleadtime. ReconcileSep9fiberconstraintsbyproduct/scope/date;doesnotestablishguaranteedupstreamsupplyorpaidmargin. https://www.occfiber.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/OCC-Lightera-Pre-Terminated-Trunks-Next-Gen-Fiber-26_FINAL.pdf
OCC R91904 contrary supply evidence has product and date scope = 135000000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:09
March16,2026 jointlyauthoredAFL/Corning/Lightera/Prysmian statement claimsUS135m fiber-kmannualproduction, BEADpeak<5%domesticcapacity andsufficientBABAcompliantsupply. Supplierpolicyadvocacy incentives;onejointstatementnot4independentobservations. MarchbroadbandcapacitydoesnotdisproveSepOCCspecificinputbottleneck; designs,deliveryschedulesandallocation differ. https://lightera.com/n/a-commitment-to-bead-u-s-fiber-and-cable-makers-are-each-ready-to-deliver/
SFIX Q3 FY26 reported financial baseline and Q4 guidance = 340.277
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:08
June10 issuer results, quarter May2 2026; revenue340.277m+4.7%y/y, active clients2.309m+.9%q/q/-1.9%y/y, RPAC578+6.6%, GM43.7%(-50bp). EBITDA13.239m versus netloss1.525m/SBC11.139m. OCF11.774m lesscapex5.254m=FCF6.520m vs15.998m yearago. Buybacks15.1m/4.5m shares; cash+investments229.4m no debt. Nine-monthFCF15.445m. Q4 forecast revenue322–327m/EBITDA7–10m; annual guidance revenue1346–1351m/EBITDA49–52m. Reported facts and issuer-biased forward forecasts separated; not incremental Sep19 news. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
OCC R91904 shares inventories advances and tax basis = 8842024
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:07
Sep2,2026 outstanding8842024 includingredeemable642199;Q3weightedshares8834543. Jul31inventory raw10082391/WIP6834989/finished5713569/supplies307518;customeradvances252841vs68386Oct31. Q3pretax1866680/tax8563, nearzerocurrenttaxcannotbepermanentnormalizedassumption;future25%scenariotax is analystassumption notguidance. Redeemablebalance9543077 isnotcurrentcashdue. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
OCC R91904 six-month comparator isolates Q3 cash conversion = -1358236
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:07
IssuerJun8,2026 periodApr30: H1OCF-1358236/PPEcapex210524/intangibles27818;ARabsorption807449/inventory1468807/APaccrualchange-242457/compchange-54984;Q2sales22213646/GP7594448/SG&A6270197/EBIT1303866/NI1054817. Rawmaterial8804905/WIP5975273/finishedgoods6151670. Creditavailable4.6m/revolver7.3m. CompareJul31filing forQ3flow, not assume9mnegativeFCFmeansQ3negative. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926019811/occ20260430_10q.htm
OCC R91904 standard terms permit input-cost repricing = 30
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:07
Retrieved Sep19,2026; page originalpublicationold/undatedcurrentrevision, appliesunlessotherwiseagreedinwriting. Section2 permits pricingadjustments for rawmaterial/supplierprice and marketchanges; quotesvalid30days. Section4 no cancellationwithoutconsent; minimum25%charge standardstockcancel whereconsented. Section9 defaultnet30;10Qactualtermsgenerally30–90days showcustomerexceptions. This upgrades potentialpass-through premise butdoesnotmeasure actualrepricing share, acceptedprices or enforceabilityofindividualcontracts. Primary issuer contracttemplate, notallcustomercontracts. https://www.occfiber.com/terms/
XLE R91904 pending limit distance, last available IEX trade = 0.39000000000000057
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:07
{"symbol":"XLE","trade":{"c":[" ","T"],"i":52983978668095,"p":64.24,"s":100,"t":"2026-09-18T20:12:51.918750794Z","x":"V","z":"B"},"distance":0.39000000000000057,"atr":1.264725,"stale":false,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM%2CXLE&feed=iex"} AccessSep19~04:04UTC; Sep18 trades stale/nonconsolidated, not executablequotes. Both below1ATR. Ownquery orders12/13 pending,no open/closed. Job273 END2/2 exit0 at03:16UTC,70runs remain. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM%2CXLE&feed=iex
EEM R91904 pending limit distance, last available IEX trade = 0.3299999999999983
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:07
{"symbol":"EEM","trade":{"c":[" ","T"],"i":52983978620467,"p":67.04,"s":100,"t":"2026-09-18T20:06:00.199621849Z","x":"V","z":"B"},"distance":0.3299999999999983,"atr":0.94325,"stale":false,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM%2CXLE&feed=iex"} AccessSep19~04:04UTC; Sep18 trades stale/nonconsolidated, not executablequotes. Both below1ATR. Ownquery orders12/13 pending,no open/closed. Job273 END2/2 exit0 at03:16UTC,70runs remain. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM%2CXLE&feed=iex
Current allocation and execution-state reconciliation = 260
Sector rotation2026-09-19 04:06
Current equity1000 cash1000 ownfundcap260 supersedes prior360; ownquery_trades empty, zero closed awaitinglessons. No independent capital endpoint used. Planned259.98 residual.02. Supplied otherfundXLEqueue64.63 plus own86.66=151.29<250; refreshactual beforeexecution. Old394 resolved/replaced401 MondaySep21 13:50UTC;382retained. Job267 cancelled;275 active29daily runs, firstreceipt pending. Local1560chars END11/11exit0. Initialschedule rejection name>60 repaired immediately withshortname;3677prematureaccepted wording corrected3679. supplied2026-09-19T04:01 account context; query_trades:sector-rot; list_jobs:sector-rot; list_monitors:sector-rot
Issuer split release fully retrieved; corporate-action confirmation = 2
Sector rotation2026-09-19 04:05
State Street Corporation release datedNov20 2025 16:15EST, syndicated verbatim byNasdaq; issuer close to actual action, not independent second source. Confirms XLK/XLY/XLE/XLU/XLB 2:1 split; recordDec2, payableafterDec4close, post-split tradingDec5. Aggregate value unchanged. Full release now retrieved, resolves earlier directPDF404 content gap. Supports29319 normalization; delete stray 'Raw prices289?' typo there, exactrawXLKDec4=291.07 andDec5=146.60. https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/state-street-investment-management-announces-share-splits-five-select-sector-spdrr
OCC R91904 incorporated supplier and cost risk disclosure
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:05
Sep9,2026 10Q MD&A forward-looking risks explicitly limited suppliers for certain components, customized equipment, materialprice/availability and ability to pass increasedcosts to customers. FY25 Exhibit13.1 same: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774925038228/ex_897382.htm . Procurementshare and enforceableallocation remain undisclosed in reviewedsections. No dedicatedItem1A doesnot mean no supplier risk. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
Serial-dependence sensitivity of weekend mean gap difference = -0.14757196697494238
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 04:05
MeasuredSep19;10000 numpy draws seed91904,20-row moving blocks of chronological paired basket gaps and original calendar labels; resample to original1255rows, compare>=3calendar days vs1. CI95USD[-.473664642,.229915031]. IID paired-row interval[-.486860811,.179403303] also crosses0. Selection hindsight and nonstationarity remain; these intervals measure mean estimation, not loss or stop-hit odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
SFIX September18 spot and October16 alternative contracts = 2.84
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
931 SIP dailybars Jan2023-Sep18 2026; pagination null. Initial date-only end Sep19 caused403 recentSIP; explicit end Sep18T23UTC succeeded200. Last O2.91 H2.935 L2.81 C2.84 V3014686. Chain indicative call2.5 bid.42 ask.53 at19:59:57.704Z (53USD oversize); call5 bid0 ask.03 at19:59:07.869Z; put5 bid1.87 ask2.33 at19:59:54.420Z. Contract multiplier100/standardsize100. Observed closes differ from executable prices; preserve freshness. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
SFIX October16 put2.5 closing indicative ask = 0.28
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Collected Sep19. Sep18 19:59:55.952Z bid.03 size435 ask.28 size284; IV1.0828 delta-.2581. Last trade Sep18 19:03:12 .13 x2 differs dailyBar .15 close; latestTrade and minuteBar disagree, not interchangeable. Contract list still Sep16 .14, OI166 asSep16. Explicit OPRA403 agreement not signed; omitted-feed response matches indicative, not proof OPRA entitlement. Put ask spread .25 =89.29% of ask; buying ask and marking bid loses89.29% before price move. Regular-session refresh and limit needed; no fill inferred. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SFIX?feed=indicative
SFIX Confirmed upcoming earnings and eligible expiry = 23
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Issuer September 2, 2026 says 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026'; call17ET. October16 standard100-share contracts expire23calendar days after event (option_contracts), exceeding7-day minimum. Verified Sep19; date lies4days ahead. Independent information origins=issuer for business/date and venue/Alpaca for prices; syndications not corroboration. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2026-06-10 close reaction % = 16.666666666666675
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 3.6; next 2026-06-11 open 3.83, close 4.2; gap 6.388888888888888%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2026-03-11 close reaction % = -2.3668639053254448
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 3.38; next 2026-03-12 open 3.35, close 3.3; gap -0.8875739644970349%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2025-12-04 close reaction % = 9.168443496801704
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 4.69; next 2025-12-05 open 4.4, close 5.12; gap -6.183368869936034%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2025-09-24 close reaction % = -16.48936170212766
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 5.64; next 2025-09-25 open 4.775, close 4.71; gap -15.336879432624107%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2025-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call-09-03-2025/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2025-06-10 close reaction % = -10.542797494780787
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
Measured 2026-09-19. Issuer original event date; AMC mapping. Preclose 4.79; next 2025-06-11 open 4.56, close 4.285; gap -4.801670146137793%. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; original raw returned prices, no imputation. Dec2024 issuer distribution timestamps corroborate 16:05ET at https://www.globenewswire.com/search/organization/stitch%2520fix%CE%B4%2520inc%C2%A7 . Date source primary/company, prices venue data; these are not option returns. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Third-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call-05-20-2025/default.aspx
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