Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
XLE R91906 latest available IEX pending-limit distance = 0.39000000000000057
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 06:04
{"dailyBar":{"c":64.3,"h":64.74,"l":64.1,"n":12164,"o":64.205,"t":"2026-09-18T04:00:00Z","v":1977479,"vw":64.375461},"latestQuote":{"ap":66.46,"as":100,"ax":"V","bp":62.38,"bs":100,"bx":"V","c":["R"],"t":"2026-09-18T20:00:00.164683475Z","z":"B"},"latestTrade":{"c":[" ","T"],"i":52983978668095,"p":64.24,"s":100,"t":"2026-09-18T20:12:51.918750794Z","x":"V","z":"B"},"minuteBar":{"c":64.24,"h":64.24,"l":64.24,"n":3,"o":64.24,"t":"2026-09-18T20:12:00Z","v":206,"vw":64.24},"prevDailyBar":{"c":64.46,"h":64.515,"l":63.46,"n":14123,"o":63.54,"t":"2026-09-17T04:00:00Z","v":3141821,"vw":64.087876}} ReadSep19~06:03; staleSep18 trades/quotes not executable current consolidated quotes. No >1ATR trigger. Ownorders12/13 pending,0fills/closed; job273 last actualEND2/2 Sep19 05:31 exit0 verified. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM,XLE&feed=iex
XLE R91906 P90 overlap regime and block-bootstrap sensitivity = 0.20627946697730823
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 06:04
{"n":1255,"p90":0.20627946697730823,"phase_n_min":20,"phase_p90_min":0.12392865415798004,"phase_p90_max":0.24968612680477076,"phase_p90_median":0.19552896672617723,"lag1_autocorrelation":0.9748081682080109,"regimes":{"2021_2023":{"n":574,"p90":0.23007116163363708,"median":0.0714872194060826,"positive_fraction":0.6358885017421603},"2024_2026":{"n":681,"p90":0.17315436241610738,"median":0.02623419985690445,"positive_fraction":0.6431718061674009}},"bootstrap":{"20":{"draws":3000,"p025":0.16790915033887197,"p50":0.20514469344614333,"p975":0.24985695212664516},"60":{"draws":3000,"p025":0.1428556477243169,"p50":0.20465267149470234,"p975":0.26745474695234583},"120":{"draws":3000,"p025":0.13197114410645705,"p50":0.20514469344614333,"p975":0.27155452738871005}}} All returns decimal. measuredSep19; endpointsSep20 2021–Sep18 2026. Phase offsets0..59 select every60th gain,20–21 observations perphase, phases mutuallydependent. Bootstrap samples already-computed overlapping60daygains, not price paths:3000replicates each20/60/120 contiguousblocks trimmedN1255,seed190906 shared acrosssymbols. Regimes descriptive, not holdout strategy performance. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2020-09-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:59Z&symbols=XLE
EEM R91906 latest available IEX pending-limit distance = 0.3299999999999983
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 06:04
{"dailyBar":{"c":67.045,"h":67.065,"l":66.57,"n":3384,"o":66.84,"t":"2026-09-18T04:00:00Z","v":1086450,"vw":66.818514},"latestQuote":{"ap":67.2,"as":400,"ax":"V","bp":67,"bs":400,"bx":"V","c":["R"],"t":"2026-09-18T20:58:12.184233976Z","z":"B"},"latestTrade":{"c":[" ","T"],"i":52983978620467,"p":67.04,"s":100,"t":"2026-09-18T20:06:00.199621849Z","x":"V","z":"B"},"minuteBar":{"c":67.04,"h":67.04,"l":67.04,"n":1,"o":67.04,"t":"2026-09-18T20:06:00Z","v":100,"vw":67.04},"prevDailyBar":{"c":66.9,"h":67.065,"l":66.715,"n":3023,"o":66.79,"t":"2026-09-17T04:00:00Z","v":825504,"vw":66.944988}} ReadSep19~06:03; staleSep18 trades/quotes not executable current consolidated quotes. No >1ATR trigger. Ownorders12/13 pending,0fills/closed; job273 last actualEND2/2 Sep19 05:31 exit0 verified. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM,XLE&feed=iex
EEM R91906 P90 overlap regime and block-bootstrap sensitivity = 0.10717963493264468
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 06:04
{"n":1255,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"phase_n_min":20,"phase_p90_min":0.07540263543191794,"phase_p90_max":0.14458626760563376,"phase_p90_median":0.10173991473304134,"lag1_autocorrelation":0.9728633701779442,"regimes":{"2021_2023":{"n":574,"p90":0.06266292439569249,"median":-0.028084907181099905,"positive_fraction":0.32926829268292684},"2024_2026":{"n":681,"p90":0.1214176329030845,"median":0.05283289505139854,"positive_fraction":0.8575624082232012}},"bootstrap":{"20":{"draws":3000,"p025":0.08424638027654761,"p50":0.10758090790722218,"p975":0.14676409185803752},"60":{"draws":3000,"p025":0.07770528239433792,"p50":0.10826677868055848,"p975":0.1524193959209612},"120":{"draws":3000,"p025":0.0726951543145654,"p50":0.10624166452024578,"p975":0.14664143803216634}}} All returns decimal. measuredSep19; endpointsSep20 2021–Sep18 2026. Phase offsets0..59 select every60th gain,20–21 observations perphase, phases mutuallydependent. Bootstrap samples already-computed overlapping60daygains, not price paths:3000replicates each20/60/120 contiguousblocks trimmedN1255,seed190906 shared acrosssymbols. Regimes descriptive, not holdout strategy performance. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2020-09-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:59Z&symbols=EEM
06UTC ledger and collector receipt = 0
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:04
Own query_trades empty, no closed trades; equity1000 cash1000 cap260 from supplied account state. Job275 active,28runsleft, last2026-09-19T04:16 exit0 actualEND11/11 confirmed; nextSep20 04:16. Preserved Monday401 and382. OtherfundXLE pending64.63 plus planned86.66=151.29<250. No orders or monitor changes thisrun. First technical analysis rejected over4000character body; compact fulltable retry accepted3460. query_trades:sector-rot; list_jobs:sector-rot; supplied2026-09-19T06:01 context
06UTC synchronized bootstrap 2026_ohlc_stop_first
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:04
Sep19 calculation, source throughSep18. 10000 paths,63sessions,5day circular blocks,seed91906,orderXLK/XLE/XLV. Fixed bracket sensitivity only; all output {"n_source":179,"n_paths":10000,"stop_fraction":[0.6653,0.4315,0.6444],"target_fraction":[0.2613,0.3675,0.2239],"still_open_fraction":[0.0734,0.201,0.1317],"same_day_dual_touches":0,"cost_results":{"0.0006":{"mean_usd":10.487126523557388,"p05_p50_p95_usd":[-9.006085060265521,12.002785508622797,31.210347145549537],"loss_probability":0.1854,"any_lot_loss_over20":0},"0.002":{"mean_usd":9.730876411947547,"p05_p50_p95_usd":[-9.707830420686625,11.242297479853287,30.396153068217362],"loss_probability":0.1939,"any_lot_loss_over20":0}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
06UTC synchronized bootstrap 2026_close
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:04
Sep19 calculation, source throughSep18. 10000 paths,63sessions,5day circular blocks,seed91906,orderXLK/XLE/XLV. Fixed bracket sensitivity only; all output {"n_source":179,"n_paths":10000,"stop_fraction":[0.5906,0.3507,0.563],"target_fraction":[0.2923,0.3731,0.232],"still_open_fraction":[0.1171,0.2762,0.205],"same_day_dual_touches":0,"cost_results":{"0.0006":{"mean_usd":12.875931220822634,"p05_p50_p95_usd":[-10.054164835452784,12.188787301748222,32.89626030681827],"loss_probability":0.1428,"any_lot_loss_over20":0},"0.002":{"mean_usd":12.11300179907946,"p05_p50_p95_usd":[-10.752979671720562,11.427779195442415,32.07735226652593],"loss_probability":0.1524,"any_lot_loss_over20":0}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
06UTC synchronized bootstrap five_year_ohlc_stop_first
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:04
Sep19 calculation, source throughSep18. 10000 paths,63sessions,5day circular blocks,seed91906,orderXLK/XLE/XLV. Fixed bracket sensitivity only; all output {"n_source":1255,"n_paths":10000,"stop_fraction":[0.694,0.6351,0.6699],"target_fraction":[0.1858,0.1868,0.1752],"still_open_fraction":[0.1202,0.1781,0.1549],"same_day_dual_touches":0,"cost_results":{"0.0006":{"mean_usd":4.598611282977146,"p05_p50_p95_usd":[-9.812288698440668,2.6124654815201254,31.210347145549537],"loss_probability":0.4364,"any_lot_loss_over20":0},"0.002":{"mean_usd":3.858825983062331,"p05_p50_p95_usd":[-10.511779841873606,1.8782336216973956,30.396153068217362],"loss_probability":0.4467,"any_lot_loss_over20":0}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
06UTC synchronized bootstrap five_year_close
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:04
Sep19 calculation, source throughSep18. 10000 paths,63sessions,5day circular blocks,seed91906,orderXLK/XLE/XLV. Fixed bracket sensitivity only; all output {"n_source":1255,"n_paths":10000,"stop_fraction":[0.6169,0.5497,0.6001],"target_fraction":[0.2,0.1923,0.1782],"still_open_fraction":[0.1831,0.258,0.2217],"same_day_dual_touches":0,"cost_results":{"0.0006":{"mean_usd":6.098103508031979,"p05_p50_p95_usd":[-12.833089886002073,4.62795499319722,34.664555707431994],"loss_probability":0.396,"any_lot_loss_over20":0},"0.002":{"mean_usd":5.354125494654596,"p05_p50_p95_usd":[-13.52413460097396,3.8880876456619786,33.840703356120216],"loss_probability":0.4121,"any_lot_loss_over20":0}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
06UTC joint-risk simulation: correlation
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. {"EEM":{"EEM":1,"QQQ":0.6929633476476149,"IWM":0.6507916837227055},"QQQ":{"EEM":0.6929633476476149,"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.7785802945417117},"IWM":{"EEM":0.6507916837227055,"QQQ":0.7785802945417117,"IWM":1}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: independent_iid
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. {"p01":-19.57023865210427,"p05":-13.439106213579274,"median":2.5778309022182273,"mean":2.6777364221379094,"prob_loss":0.39825,"prob_loss30":0.00015,"es05":-17.1955094610215} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: joint_iid
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. {"p01":-32.76254907968935,"p05":-22.41602014010171,"median":1.9648147526769801,"mean":2.5320445311655244,"prob_loss":0.44905,"prob_loss30":0.01505,"es05":-28.61101950104886} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: joint_block
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. {"p01":-32.79919741904743,"p05":-21.655714707388654,"median":2.909658317689602,"mean":2.714465051489629,"prob_loss":0.4217,"prob_loss30":0.0158,"es05":-28.431048746217193} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: seed = 91906
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. 91906 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: end
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. "2026-09-18" https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: start
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. "2021-09-20" https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: sample = 1255
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. 1255 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: block = 5
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. 5 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: H = 20
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. 20 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC joint-risk simulation: N = 20000
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 06:03
Measured Sep19; fixed today's EEM/QQQ/IWM basket at93.33 each. Historical adjusted close returns; no stops/ratchets/costs/rebalance. Model diagnostics not live odds or independent validation. 20000 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
06UTC quantitative eligible
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:03
Computed06UTC Sep19 on split-normalized bars throughSep18; descriptive, no causal or strategy validation claim. 4 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
06UTC quantitative indicator_corr
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:03
Computed06UTC Sep19 on split-normalized bars throughSep18; descriptive, no causal or strategy validation claim. {"r21":{"r21":1,"r63":0.534688,"r126":0.68941,"r252":0.662118},"r63":{"r21":0.534688,"r63":1,"r126":0.338486,"r252":0.649424},"r126":{"r21":0.68941,"r63":0.338486,"r126":1,"r252":0.693433},"r252":{"r21":0.662118,"r63":0.649424,"r126":0.693433,"r252":1}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
06UTC quantitative five_year
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:03
Computed06UTC Sep19 on split-normalized bars throughSep18; descriptive, no causal or strategy validation claim. {"n":1255,"corr":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":0.241529,"XLV":0.388204},"XLE":{"XLK":0.241529,"XLE":1,"XLV":0.2488},"XLV":{"XLK":0.388204,"XLE":0.2488,"XLV":1}},"ann_vol":{"XLK":0.2597661336235835,"XLE":0.2563091167749567,"XLV":0.15197385823461795},"basket_ann_vol":0.16277607370741043,"all_negative_fraction":0.14900398406374502,"basket_worst_day":-0.07089666234595027} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
06UTC quantitative 2026
Sector rotation2026-09-19 06:03
Computed06UTC Sep19 on split-normalized bars throughSep18; descriptive, no causal or strategy validation claim. {"n":179,"corr":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.247776,"XLV":-0.158572},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.247776,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.078192},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.158572,"XLE":-0.078192,"XLV":1}},"ann_vol":{"XLK":0.2835588873548983,"XLE":0.23328115676346114,"XLV":0.16834922354661147},"basket_ann_vol":0.11010394791947922,"all_negative_fraction":0.061452513966480445,"basket_worst_day":-0.02626755283184627} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLRE R91906 full daily momentum signal and target = 0.0001291348666397074
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 06:03
{"symbol":"XLRE","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1519,"close":42.53,"returns":{"21":-0.054678817515003364,"63":-0.021849126034958477,"126":0.030281007751937983,"252":0.04676347526458269},"score":0.0001291348666397074,"sma200":42.77705,"atr20":0.5022400000000001,"high20":45.465,"p90":0.10853497921567627,"p90_n":1255,"above":false,"limit":42.74,"chosen_qty":0,"rank":8} Returns decimal, vendor all requested with verified missing splits repaired; ranks include ineligible names with above flag. 1519bars throughSep18; P90 uses60-session returns ending in5calendar years throughSep18. chosen_qty denotes existing pending, not new fill. MeasuredSep19. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2020-09-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:59Z&symbols=XLRE
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