Notes

Calculated Sep19; assumptions and method in R91906 analyses. [{"strike":7.5,"premium":0.2,"iv":0.987,"vol":0.6,"target":0.6000000000000001,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":73.86399999999999,"target_pct":23.642,"win_pct":25.485999999999997,"mean_pnl":0.8732633707794364,"p05":-21,"halfkelly_intrinsic_pct":0},{"strike":7.5,"premium":0.2,"iv":0.987,"vol":0.8,"target":0.6000000000000001,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":62.032,"target_pct":36.204,"win_pct":37.516,"mean_pnl":10.24614485036925,"p05":-20.96934257172346,"halfkelly_intrinsic_pct":0},{"strike":7.5,"premium":0.23,"iv":0.987,"vol":0.4,"target":0.6900000000000001,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":85.636,"target_pct":10.472,"win_pct":13.524,"mean_pnl":-10.80859388308147,"p05":-24,"halfkelly_intrinsic_pct":0},{"strike":7.5,"premium":0.23,"iv":0.987,"vol":0.6,"target":0.6900000000000001,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":78.238,"target_pct":18.364,"win_pct":20.971999999999998,"mean_pnl":-3.1910133478512046,"p05":-24,"halfkelly_intrinsic_pct":0}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Calculated Sep19; assumptions and method in R91906 analyses. [{"strike":7,"premium":0.2,"iv":0.8403,"vol":0.4,"target":0.6000000000000001,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":95.182,"target_pct":3.84,"win_pct":4.590000000000001,"mean_pnl":-14.38994179879527,"p05":-21,"halfkelly_intrinsic_pct":0},{"strike":7,"premium":0.2,"iv":0.8403,"vol":0.6,"target":0.6000000000000001,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":92.146,"target_pct":6.644,"win_pct":7.564,"mean_pnl":-11.054812105625267,"p05":-21,"halfkelly_intrinsic_pct":0},{"strike":7,"premium":0.2,"iv":0.8403,"vol":0.8,"target":0.6000000000000001,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":87.014,"target_pct":11.81,"win_pct":12.662,"mean_pnl":-6.657609379713598,"p05":-20.431231381017493,"halfkelly_intrinsic_pct":0},{"strike":7.5,"premium":0.2,"iv":0.987,"vol":0.4,"target":0.6000000000000001,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":84.166,"target_pct":12.648000000000001,"win_pct":15.036,"mean_pnl":-7.589115983463404,"p05":-21,"halfkelly_intrinsic_pct":0}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Calculated Sep19; assumptions and method in R91906 analyses. [{"look":100,"vol":2,"period":"train","return":0.2034182050000001,"drawdown":0.11563757598641589,"win rate":100,"sample":1},{"look":100,"vol":2,"period":"holdout","return":0.3466013494999998,"drawdown":0.1512695203183756,"win rate":100,"sample":1}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Calculated Sep19; assumptions and method in R91906 analyses. [{"look":100,"vol":1,"period":"train","return":0.2034182050000001,"drawdown":0.11563757598641589,"win rate":100,"sample":1},{"look":100,"vol":1,"period":"holdout","return":0.18921019600000025,"drawdown":0.38457594157697006,"win rate":50,"sample":2},{"look":100,"vol":1.5,"period":"train","return":0.2034182050000001,"drawdown":0.11563757598641589,"win rate":100,"sample":1},{"look":100,"vol":1.5,"period":"holdout","return":0.42876543149999985,"drawdown":0.15114592947241823,"win rate":100,"sample":1}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Calculated Sep19; assumptions and method in R91906 analyses. [{"look":50,"vol":1.5,"period":"train","return":0.1477981530000002,"drawdown":0.19110904605433854,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":3},{"look":50,"vol":1.5,"period":"holdout","return":0.42876543149999985,"drawdown":0.15114592947241823,"win rate":100,"sample":1},{"look":50,"vol":2,"period":"train","return":0.1477981530000002,"drawdown":0.19110904605433854,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":3},{"look":50,"vol":2,"period":"holdout","return":0.3466013494999998,"drawdown":0.1512695203183756,"win rate":100,"sample":1}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Calculated Sep19; assumptions and method in R91906 analyses. [{"look":20,"vol":2,"period":"train","return":0.16984217500000015,"drawdown":0.17511515111334752,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":3},{"look":20,"vol":2,"period":"holdout","return":0.3466013494999998,"drawdown":0.1512695203183756,"win rate":100,"sample":1},{"look":50,"vol":1,"period":"train","return":0.20290820800000028,"drawdown":0.13617117387609845,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":3},{"look":50,"vol":1,"period":"holdout","return":0.18921019600000025,"drawdown":0.38457594157697006,"win rate":50,"sample":2}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Calculated Sep19; assumptions and method in R91906 analyses. [{"look":20,"vol":1,"period":"train","return":0.3612243660000002,"drawdown":0.11560293428156676,"win rate":100,"sample":3},{"look":20,"vol":1,"period":"holdout","return":0.18921019600000025,"drawdown":0.38457594157697006,"win rate":50,"sample":2},{"look":20,"vol":1.5,"period":"train","return":0.26803827300000016,"drawdown":0.13237723895045406,"win rate":100,"sample":3},{"look":20,"vol":1.5,"period":"holdout","return":0.42876543149999985,"drawdown":0.15114592947241823,"win rate":100,"sample":1}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"NVT","bars":1003,"returnPct":-14.782468414417615,"buyAndHoldPct":378.6666666666667,"maxDrawdownPct":27.910008187297343,"winRate":31.958762886597935,"avgTradePct":-0.11469056936866569,"sample":97}. CLI1460days/breakout20/10pctstop30pcttarget;IEXsameclosesignal,noexplicitfees/holdout/gapexecution. NotcomparabletonextopenATRmodel; research/cli.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"POWL","bars":1003,"returnPct":-4.9891654704569355,"buyAndHoldPct":687.8372591006424,"maxDrawdownPct":33.076553060750676,"winRate":38.46153846153847,"avgTradePct":0.091954638563117,"sample":78}. CLI1460days/breakout20/10pctstop30pcttarget;IEXsameclosesignal,noexplicitfees/holdout/gapexecution. NotcomparabletonextopenATRmodel; research/cli.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"ETN","bars":1003,"returnPct":15.45128983210866,"buyAndHoldPct":205.21626670498634,"maxDrawdownPct":16.11425534173869,"winRate":41.75824175824176,"avgTradePct":0.1834885677941043,"sample":91}. CLI1460days/breakout20/10pctstop30pcttarget;IEXsameclosesignal,noexplicitfees/holdout/gapexecution. NotcomparabletonextopenATRmodel; research/cli.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"PSIX","bars":433,"returnPct":24.83161228654909,"buyAndHoldPct":52.73333333333334,"maxDrawdownPct":18.772271202307728,"winRate":41.935483870967744,"avgTradePct":0.8971532075083042,"sample":31}. CLI1460days/breakout20/10pctstop30pcttarget;IEXsameclosesignal,noexplicitfees/holdout/gapexecution. NotcomparabletonextopenATRmodel; research/cli.json. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

[{"sample_group":"NVT_holdout","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":10,"mean_pct":3.659785744393773,"win_pct":50},{"sample_group":"NVT_holdout","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":1,"mean_pct":40.28343956642031,"win_pct":100},{"sample_group":"NVT_holdout","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":10,"mean_pct":3.659785744393773,"win_pct":50},{"sample_group":"NVT_holdout","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":1,"mean_pct":40.28343956642031,"win_pct":100},{"sample_group":"NVT_recent","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":5,"mean_pct":0.8232544066043146,"win_pct":20},{"sample_group":"NVT_recent","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"NVT_recent","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":5,"mean_pct":0.8232544066043146,"win_pct":20},{"sample_group":"NVT_recent","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null}]. Baseline entry cohorts,notrerunfilterstrategy; excludesunavailableSMA200; boundaryliquidationsincluded. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

[{"sample_group":"POWL_recent","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":5,"mean_pct":15.069984119084474,"win_pct":60},{"sample_group":"POWL_recent","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"POWL_recent","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":5,"mean_pct":15.069984119084474,"win_pct":60},{"sample_group":"POWL_recent","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"NVT_train","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":21,"mean_pct":1.9117517882597042,"win_pct":33.33333333333333},{"sample_group":"NVT_train","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":5,"mean_pct":-0.7230783660077744,"win_pct":20},{"sample_group":"NVT_train","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":25,"mean_pct":0.47527929583197137,"win_pct":28.000000000000004},{"sample_group":"NVT_train","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":4,"mean_pct":6.800093952582237,"win_pct":50}]. Baseline entry cohorts,notrerunfilterstrategy; excludesunavailableSMA200; boundaryliquidationsincluded. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

[{"sample_group":"POWL_train","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":27,"mean_pct":-0.9693384319537593,"win_pct":22.22222222222222},{"sample_group":"POWL_train","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":17,"mean_pct":-3.5218451327856495,"win_pct":17.647058823529413},{"sample_group":"POWL_train","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":36,"mean_pct":-3.223505099037463,"win_pct":16.666666666666664},{"sample_group":"POWL_train","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":12,"mean_pct":2.9824350791197984,"win_pct":33.33333333333333},{"sample_group":"POWL_holdout","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":15,"mean_pct":2.307475657313983,"win_pct":33.33333333333333},{"sample_group":"POWL_holdout","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":1,"mean_pct":23.82285042142529,"win_pct":100},{"sample_group":"POWL_holdout","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":15,"mean_pct":2.307475657313983,"win_pct":33.33333333333333},{"sample_group":"POWL_holdout","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":1,"mean_pct":23.82285042142529,"win_pct":100}]. Baseline entry cohorts,notrerunfilterstrategy; excludesunavailableSMA200; boundaryliquidationsincluded. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

[{"sample_group":"ETN_holdout","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":12,"mean_pct":-1.4585631521691038,"win_pct":25},{"sample_group":"ETN_holdout","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":1,"mean_pct":29.314904339665194,"win_pct":100},{"sample_group":"ETN_holdout","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":12,"mean_pct":-1.4585631521691038,"win_pct":25},{"sample_group":"ETN_holdout","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":1,"mean_pct":29.314904339665194,"win_pct":100},{"sample_group":"ETN_recent","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":4,"mean_pct":1.3717519435655745,"win_pct":50},{"sample_group":"ETN_recent","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"ETN_recent","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":4,"mean_pct":1.3717519435655745,"win_pct":50},{"sample_group":"ETN_recent","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null}]. Baseline entry cohorts,notrerunfilterstrategy; excludesunavailableSMA200; boundaryliquidationsincluded. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

[{"sample_group":"PSIX_recent","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":2,"mean_pct":11.320170164558158,"win_pct":50},{"sample_group":"PSIX_recent","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":3,"mean_pct":-8.215684772652187,"win_pct":33.33333333333333},{"sample_group":"PSIX_recent","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":5,"mean_pct":-0.4013427977680495,"win_pct":40},{"sample_group":"PSIX_recent","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"ETN_train","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":31,"mean_pct":2.3250242571392166,"win_pct":48.38709677419355},{"sample_group":"ETN_train","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":5,"mean_pct":-1.8603438377289818,"win_pct":40},{"sample_group":"ETN_train","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":31,"mean_pct":1.8684165388076233,"win_pct":45.16129032258064},{"sample_group":"ETN_train","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":9,"mean_pct":-0.824720055036849,"win_pct":44.44444444444444}]. Baseline entry cohorts,notrerunfilterstrategy; excludesunavailableSMA200; boundaryliquidationsincluded. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

[{"sample_group":"PSIX_train","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"PSIX_train","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"PSIX_train","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"PSIX_train","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"PSIX_holdout","field":"sma200","value":true,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"PSIX_holdout","field":"sma200","value":false,"n":0,"mean_pct":null,"win_pct":null},{"sample_group":"PSIX_holdout","field":"spy_above","value":true,"n":3,"mean_pct":12.206112293337375,"win_pct":66.66666666666666},{"sample_group":"PSIX_holdout","field":"spy_above","value":false,"n":1,"mean_pct":57.88061271237257,"win_pct":100}]. Baseline entry cohorts,notrerunfilterstrategy; excludesunavailableSMA200; boundaryliquidationsincluded. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"intercept_daily_pct":0.06540495963803512,"market_beta":1.3713518469117147,"power_equalweight_beta":0.8374169719866996,"HAC5_t":[0.25552091035823293,4.15616496244254,6.195264643983802],"R2":0.27973778631499047,"caveat":"survivor-selected sample; correlated factors; not causal alpha"} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"PSIX":{"PSIX":1,"ETN":0.4864408979123419,"POWL":0.4105750631007611,"NVT":0.44835401808611863,"SPY":0.45530650536746176},"ETN":{"PSIX":0.4864408979123419,"ETN":1,"POWL":0.6700774937953293,"NVT":0.774793437141043,"SPY":0.6434208679281574},"POWL":{"PSIX":0.4105750631007611,"ETN":0.6700774937953293,"POWL":1,"NVT":0.6021954338597514,"SPY":0.501400908122826},"NVT":{"PSIX":0.44835401808611863,"ETN":0.774793437141043,"POWL":0.6021954338597514,"NVT":1,"SPY":0.6109077484238157},"SPY":{"PSIX":0.45530650536746176,"ETN":0.6434208679281574,"POWL":0.501400908122826,"NVT":0.6109077484238157,"SPY":1}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PSIX,ETN,POWL,NVT,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

[{"annualEPS":2.0948541206051936,"PE":15,"value":31.422811809077903,"netR":-2.9259766693059412},{"annualEPS":2.0948541206051936,"PE":20,"value":41.89708241210387,"netR":-0.8766019475932718},{"annualEPS":2.0948541206051936,"PE":25,"value":52.37135301512984,"netR":1.1727727741193992},{"annualEPS":2.923196948682386,"PE":15,"value":43.847954230235786,"netR":-0.49489829099438953},{"annualEPS":2.923196948682386,"PE":20,"value":58.463938973647714,"netR":2.364835890155465},{"annualEPS":2.923196948682386,"PE":25,"value":73.07992371705964,"netR":5.224570071305318},{"annualEPS":3.5,"PE":15,"value":52.5,"netR":1.1979435844611992},{"annualEPS":3.5,"PE":20,"value":70,"netR":4.621958390762917},{"annualEPS":3.5,"PE":25,"value":87.5,"netR":8.045973197064633},{"annualEPS":4,"PE":15,"value":60,"netR":2.6653785014476505},{"annualEPS":4,"PE":20,"value":80,"netR":6.578538280078185},{"annualEPS":4,"PE":25,"value":100,"netR":10.49169805870872}]. AnnualEPS2.09485/2.92320=H1/Q2annualizations;3.5/4.0and15/20/25xareanalystassumptionsnotguidance. NetRusesE45.87S41.2664,fee5bpslip50bp/side. Noassignedscenarioodds. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054328/psix-20260630.htm

{"q2_GM_pct":27.11873295573736,"q1_GM_pct":22.88167226577081,"H1_reported_FCF_m":72.988,"H1_FCF_ex_tariff_m":50.301,"H1_FCF_ex_tariff_and_AR_inventory_release_m":33.715,"quarter_annualized_EPS":2.923196948682386,"halfyear_annualized_EPS":2.0948541206051936,"marketcap_m":1057.3035,"annualized_Q2_PE":15.691724097028644,"target":61.71023682896718,"stop":41.2664,"required_EPS_at20x":3.0855118414483593,"net_stop_risk_share":5.082861708999985,"net_target_gain_share":15.248585126999956,"one_share_cost":46.12239967499998,"two_share_cost":92.24479934999997,"one_share50gaploss":23.31348483749998,"two_share50gaploss":46.62696967499996,"one_share_historic_gaploss":16.100097038610873,"two_share_historic_gaploss":32.200194077221745}. AnalystarithmeticasSep19atSIP45.87; annualizingquarterorhalfyearnotforecast; subtractionARinventoryissensitivity,notGAAPnormalizedFCF. 50%gapstressassumptionnotprobability. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054328/psix-20260630.htm

{"technical":{"c":7.99,"sma20":7.851000000000001,"sma50":8.5168,"sma200":6.1538,"atr20":0.35761999999999994,"rv20":0.5609069589046792,"vr":1.495555823506151,"mom20":-0.01842751842751844,"rsi":48.42091970572105},"high252":13.59,"correlation":{"dist50":{"dist50":1,"mom20":0.8382970820544396,"rsi":0.8760070803480127,"rv20":0.03814381735828646,"vr":0.09772330606163557,"move":0.4793680171296823},"mom20":{"dist50":0.8382970820544396,"mom20":1,"rsi":0.8970133768827444,"rv20":-0.028158037569897407,"vr":0.2293041723318736,"move":0.29490519515117714},"rsi":{"dist50":0.8760070803480127,"mom20":0.8970133768827444,"rsi":1,"rv20":-0.24564354524492807,"vr":0.29287083115936446,"move":0.2972031199123863},"rv20":{"dist50":0.03814381735828646,"mom20":-0.028158037569897407,"rsi":-0.24564354524492807,"rv20":1,"vr":-0.48184767578905013,"move":0.3195409706879506},"vr":{"dist50":0.09772330606163557,"mom20":0.2293041723318736,"rsi":0.29287083115936446,"rv20":-0.48184767578905013,"vr":1,"move":-0.3386881665261176},"move":{"dist50":0.4793680171296823,"mom20":0.29490519515117714,"rsi":0.2972031199123863,"rv20":0.3195409706879506,"vr":-0.3386881665261176,"move":1}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

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Mar2,2026 filingItem1A: technologicallysophisticatedcomponents sourcedlimitedsuppliers; longleadtime/contractcommitments maypreventquickoreconomicreplacement; competitive/contractuallimits canblockfullcostpassthrough. July2023UFLPAdelays andforkliftimportsuspensionlate2023–Q32024;2024resourcingfromCDM/SPY replacingSAME. These are issuerhistoricalrisks, not confirmednew2026outage. Risktext states46%WeichaiownershipFeb26,2026 yet latercallsitmajority; unresolvedinternalboilerplateinconsistency, donotassertmajorityfromit. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026013207/psix-20251231.htm

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