{"seed":200900,"paths":10000,"sessions":60,"block":5,"sample":1255,"terminal_dollars_p05_p50_p95":[-13.946045912979042,5.786306726172633,25.56167991248244],"EEM":{"stop_first":0.6359,"target_first":0.224,"neither":0.1401},"XLE":{"stop_first":0.5348,"target_first":0.189,"neither":0.2762}} Stationary closepath experiment, not actual returns or live probabilities.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Fed original Sep16 released14ET, readSep20: hike25bp to3.75–4.00%,12–0 vote; solidactivity,elevatedinflation. Existing news, not a newSep19 surprise. Weekend geopolitical headlines not independently corroborated in this bounded review.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
XLE R92000 issuer concentration and valuation = 35.22
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 00:04
ReadSep20, issuer primary asofSep17: Exxon20.03%,Chevron15.19%,sum35.22%; forward FY1 P/E12.46, trailing indexP/E17.82;21indexholdings. Forward multiple depends on estimated earnings; Sep17 price64.48 not directly comparable with Sep18 SIP64.31.
https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
EEM R92000 issuer concentration and valuation = 42.24
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 00:04
ReadSep20, issuer primary asofSep17: IT42.24%,Taiwan28.10%,Korea20.60%,China19.94%,P/E19.40,P/B2.69; Sep18 official close67.03 NAV67.28 discount0.37%. Geography is issuer domicile, not revenue. Three-country sum68.64%. No change since last run established.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
R92000 timestamp-bound data-access repair = 13
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:04
Sep20 initial 13 date-only end=2026-09-19 SIP requests 403 subscription does not permit recent SIP data; explicit RFC3339 start/end ending2026-09-18T20:00Z returned200 for all13 with931 bars each. IEX diagnostic returned200 but is not mixed with SIP. Requests do not establish reason beyond observed bounds sensitivity.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"AGNC","close":9.87,"high252":11.2,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":8.57516707332209,"SMA200":10.227055,"SMA50":10.611400000000001,"ATR20":0.18494500000000028,"RV20":0.14802471947101972,"mom20":-0.08611111111111125}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"BNTX","close":96.06,"high252":124,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":0.8857975626706146,"SMA200":97.569325,"SMA50":97.1334,"ATR20":4.0310500000000005,"RV20":0.46139914518211306,"mom20":-0.1337361349084678}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"NVDA","close":222.27,"high252":236,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":1.465421451124309,"SMA200":198.0214,"SMA50":214.0672,"ATR20":6.959749999999998,"RV20":0.4644403487702502,"mom20":0.02612991089977368}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"GSK","close":50.22,"high252":60.15,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":1.741312099580422,"SMA200":51.614,"SMA50":50.849,"ATR20":1.0145000000000004,"RV20":0.24724882669127402,"mom20":-0.03348729792147809}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"COIN","close":194.25,"high252":402.16,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":2.036072590994995,"SMA200":189.22150000000002,"SMA50":166.66300000000004,"ATR20":13.174744999999996,"RV20":0.9911991905647889,"mom20":0.12647877522616557}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"LW","close":46.67,"high252":65.06,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":1.4424035148045622,"SMA200":46.0587,"SMA50":50.754400000000004,"ATR20":1.3983249999999992,"RV20":0.2590976942893251,"mom20":-0.12717411632691222}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
BB R92000 completed Sep18 technical screen = 7.99
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:04
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"BB","close":7.99,"high252":13.59,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":1.495555823506151,"SMA200":6.1538,"SMA50":8.5168,"ATR20":0.35761999999999994,"RV20":0.5713186745848879,"mom20":-0.01842751842751844}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NOK R92000 completed Sep18 technical screen = 10.68
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:04
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"NOK","close":10.68,"high252":17.4,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":2.148324118687574,"SMA200":9.763100000000001,"SMA50":10.13368,"ATR20":0.47204499999999994,"RV20":0.6554484525904888,"mom20":0.05221674876847282}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"HOOD","close":119.82,"high252":153.8599,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":1.6410328044615226,"SMA200":94.900675,"SMA50":103.17500000000001,"ATR20":7.298804999999999,"RV20":0.9906029800443054,"mom20":0.2599369085173502}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"SFIX","close":2.84,"high252":5.94,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":2.0158832706756296,"SMA200":3.9037,"SMA50":3.5039999999999996,"ATR20":0.12170000000000003,"RV20":0.4125909455689733,"mom20":-0.14970059880239517}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"MSTR","close":153.92,"high252":365.21,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":1.9995313608887655,"SMA200":137.042375,"SMA50":110.8152,"ATR20":9.913484999999998,"RV20":1.1187902045487788,"mom20":0.3695168609306876}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"INTC","close":108.6,"high252":142.35,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":1.872698309949248,"SMA200":77.155875,"SMA50":97.0935,"ATR20":5.060950000000001,"RV20":0.6104227591492847,"mom20":0.17876913057635946}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Measured Sep20 from SIP adjustment=all, explicit end Sep18T20:00Z; 931 bars since Jan2023. Prior252 excludes current day. {"symbol":"MRNA","close":154.04,"high252":176.66,"breakout":false,"volume_ratio":0.7794756565192656,"SMA200":60.251324999999994,"SMA50":98.16660000000002,"ATR20":12.170190000000002,"RV20":0.8988653602901251,"mom20":0.15541554155415538}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ETH/USD Sep20 completed daily momentum signal and reference exits = -0.41123549014783833