Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
LW R92000 affordable expiry-eligible contract LW261016C00057500 = 0
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Sep18 quotes retrieved Sep20; Oct16 expiry10days after issuerOct6 event. N10 close reaction median13.153864%,P8021.271719%. P80intrinsic not actualoptionEV. {"symbol":"LW261016C00057500","ask":0.22,"bid":0.12,"strike":57.5,"hurdle":0.23676880222841223,"P80payoff":0,"multiple":0,"coverage":0,"passgate":false,"mean_intrinsic":0,"signed_payoffs":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative
LW R92000 affordable expiry-eligible contract LW261016P00035000 = 0
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Sep18 quotes retrieved Sep20; Oct16 expiry10days after issuerOct6 event. N10 close reaction median13.153864%,P8021.271719%. P80intrinsic not actualoptionEV. {"symbol":"LW261016P00035000","ask":0.17,"bid":0.12,"strike":35,"hurdle":0.2536961645596743,"P80payoff":0,"multiple":0,"coverage":0.2,"passgate":false,"mean_intrinsic":0.19392005647742608,"signed_payoffs":[0,0,1.5083765882670974,0,0,0,0,0.4308239765071633,0,0]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative
LW R92000 affordable expiry-eligible contract LW261016P00032500 = 0
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Sep18 quotes retrieved Sep20; Oct16 expiry10days after issuerOct6 event. N10 close reaction median13.153864%,P8021.271719%. P80intrinsic not actualoptionEV. {"symbol":"LW261016P00032500","ask":0.17,"bid":0.07,"strike":32.5,"hurdle":0.30726376687379475,"P80payoff":0,"multiple":0,"coverage":0,"passgate":false,"mean_intrinsic":0,"signed_payoffs":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative
LW R92000 affordable expiry-eligible contract LW261016P00037500 = 3.2935262254807554
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Sep18 quotes retrieved Sep20; Oct16 expiry10days after issuerOct6 event. N10 close reaction median13.153864%,P8021.271719%. P80intrinsic not actualoptionEV. {"symbol":"LW261016P00037500","ask":0.23,"bid":0.18,"strike":37.5,"hurdle":0.20141418470109282,"P80payoff":0.7575110318605738,"multiple":3.2935262254807554,"coverage":0.2,"passgate":false,"mean_intrinsic":0.7153383360473186,"signed_payoffs":[0,0,4.008376588267097,0.21418279569892462,0,0,0,2.9308239765071633,0,0]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2026-07-24 = 0.8193363375665674
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2026-07-24; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2026-07-24","preclose":48.82,"open":48.29,"close":49.22,"gap":-0.01085620647275709,"move":0.008193363375665674} https://news.lambweston.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lamb-weston-announces-q4-and-full-year-fiscal-2026-results
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2026-04-01 = -8.946608946608947
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2026-04-01; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2026-04-01","preclose":41.58,"open":40.84,"close":37.86,"gap":-0.0177970177970177,"move":-0.08946608946608947} https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/9f03ff19-1e8d-4002-ad45-ea16a804db88
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2025-12-19 = -25.928485057868368
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2025-12-19; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2025-12-19","preclose":57.89,"open":49.62,"close":42.88,"gap":-0.1428571428571429,"move":-0.25928485057868367} https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927325000075/lw-20251123x8kxexx9912q26.htm
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2025-09-30 = 4.333333333333345
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2025-09-30; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2025-09-30","preclose":54,"open":57.63,"close":56.34,"gap":0.0672222222222223,"move":0.043333333333333446} https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/b011bf01-ee60-4f3e-89da-4afa3dc5a469
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2025-07-23 = 16.29035661531968
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2025-07-23; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2025-07-23","preclose":47.39,"open":54.03,"close":55.11,"gap":0.1401139480903144,"move":0.1629035661531968} https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/56b9f201-656c-48b9-b5c5-7ad0415559a3
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2025-04-03 = 10.017371163867983
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2025-04-03; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2025-04-03","preclose":51.81,"open":57.35,"close":57,"gap":0.1069291642540049,"move":0.10017371163867983} https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/a203a75d-5b5c-4214-9dfd-eef4ab0744ba
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2024-12-19 = -20.10752688172044
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2024-12-19; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2024-12-19","preclose":74.4,"open":62.74,"close":59.44,"gap":-0.1567204301075269,"move":-0.2010752688172044} https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/6d039ad7-9532-40e7-8a35-f2bdcb247771
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2024-07-24 = -28.23736144904028
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2024-07-24; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2024-07-24","preclose":73.98,"open":55.63,"close":53.09,"gap":-0.2480400108137335,"move":-0.28237361449040277} https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/3a81b9fe-0ad9-47cd-889f-f45c183f75e8
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2024-04-04 = -19.37084344980472
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2024-04-04; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2024-04-04","preclose":94.73,"open":82.94,"close":76.38,"gap":-0.12445898870473981,"move":-0.1937084344980472} https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/258445cb-83f4-4dc1-b2fc-fc232ca1c5fe
LW R92000 issuer earnings date and daily reaction 2024-01-04 = 0.31645569620253333
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Issuer original dated 2024-01-04; collected Sep20. SIP adjusted preclose to same-day close from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact first-news minute not inferred from call time; gaps descriptive pending preopen timestamp audit. {"date":"2024-01-04","preclose":97.96,"open":99.72,"close":98.27,"gap":0.01796651694569218,"move":0.0031645569620253333} https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/2cd96a38-1e47-494d-af78-0e0eedddf5de
R92000 ACP unchanged advisory index = 35
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
ReadSep20 latestA35 andA34 remain. No new amendment visible in index; does not establish actual class waiting times or collected TCE. Existing Monday388/Tuesday415 retained. https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/
FRO R92000 adjusted completed technical packet = 51.42
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
Sep18close51.42>prior20 50.66>SMA50 39.7668>SMA20031.5307;ATR201.6095;RV60annual43.4078%;252return149.8542%. Hypothetical stop48.201/net3R61.901369 at20bp/side; no standing order. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 adjusted completed technical packet = 183.96
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
Sep18 close183.96<prior20 197.67<SMA50 203.2032;SMA200203.6842;ATR20 8.00247;RV60annual65.4855%;252return89.8452%. Hypothetical E183.96 stop167.95506 net3R234.92408 at20bp/side. One share exceeds120fund;fractional possibleRTH but no signal. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 Q3 results and split = 2400
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
Aug3 issuer Junequarter:revenue312m,GM30.6%,EPS1.42 splitadjusted,orders934m,backlog2400m,cash/investments633.561m. Three-for-one effective tradingApr6; direct all feed correctly splitadjusted Apr2 182.46/Apr6 186.57 unlike raw547.81/186.72. Reported backlog not guaranteed future profit. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80420/000008042026000103/ex991-powlq3xfy2026earning.htm
POWL R92000 10K supplier and fixed-price risk = 45
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
FY25 materials45%revenue; limited/sole-source components, redesign/qualification delays and liquidated-damages risk. Most contracts expose company to overruns; management says pricing adjustments and estimating can manage volatility. No customer>10%FY25. Generic risk not proof new outage. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80420/000008042025000152/powl-20250930.htm
R92000 incident collection failure not zero incidents
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
ReadSep20 dynamic page rendered0 reports whereas cached datedquery showed53 withSep10latest. No current primary confirmation of today's headline attack obtained; missingness explicitly unknown. https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents
FRO R92000 latest OFAC notice scope
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
ReadSep20 latestlistedSep18: Ethiopia expiration/removals and Russia GL131J contingent Lukoil sale/maintenance authorization. No blanket immediate shipping prohibition established by this notice. Sep17 Iran-linked action concerns digital exchange; do not count title as vessel removal. https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260918
FRO R92000 charter coverage decay and distinct page vintages = 14.607
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
Sep17 issuer deck p6 August28 earnings-day model:4066TC/27836total next12m; Q3 2026 TC1474/6802; Q3 2027TC212/7084. ModelFCFPS6.80/10.35/13.91 for spot-30/base/+30%. p12 September fleet728orders/2799fleet=26.0%,not same vintage as H1 25.4%. p9 asSep15 and p11 asSep14: do not label entire deck stale. Industry data relayed by issuer. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Company-Presentation-Pareto-Conference-2026.pdf
FRO R92000 ex-date raw versus adjusted audit = 1.4806588932
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
Sep17raw54.03 Sep18raw51.42 yields-4.83065% price, +1.48066% including declared3.41. API all prior50.66 yields+1.50020%; implied adjustment3.37 differs. Historical adjustment convention/rounding unreconciled, not evidence of selloff. Fresh querySep20 endSep19,2693rows each all/raw. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FRO R92000 declared special dividend supersedes conditional wording = 3.41
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:04
Issuer Sep11 confirms completed two-vessel sale, special .80 plus ordinary2.61; NYSE expected ex Sep18, payment aboutSep28. ReadSep20. New purchaser post-ex not entitled. Closest issuer, not independent corroboration of deck. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/
Weekend basket dependence and conditional risk diagnostics = 76.44269465148402
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 00:04
{"selected":[{"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1519,"close":721.45,"annual":0.2286901578759135,"sma":661.77265,"atr":8.27367999999999,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"p90_n":1255,"high20":724.125,"above":true,"rank":2,"size":93.33,"stop":704.90264,"target":838.105473380901,"sma_distance_atr":7.21291493023662,"drawdown_high20":-0.003694113585361536,"ordinary_loss":2.1406405278259037,"stress":22.608077650841185,"target_gain":15.091073990767876,"rr":7.049793645687354,"gap_assumption":0.109666233203},{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1519,"close":284.1,"annual":0.20131929468476484,"sma":273.51065,"atr":3.2170000000000045,"p90":0.12821050854556687,"p90_n":1255,"high20":299.61,"above":true,"rank":3,"size":93.33,"stop":277.666,"target":320.5246054777956,"sma_distance_atr":3.291684799502645,"drawdown_high20":-0.0517672974867327,"ordinary_loss":2.1136403379091897,"stress":27.921384363225883,"target_gain":11.965886762557755,"rr":5.661269113738809,"gap_assumption":0.138906519177},{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1519,"close":67.03,"annual":0.28311638591117916,"sma":62.091550000000005,"atr":0.9432499999999997,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"p90_n":1255,"high20":69.125,"above":true,"rank":1,"size":93.33,"stop":65.1435,"target":74.21425092953517,"sma_distance_atr":5.235568513119531,"drawdown_high20":-0.03030741410488247,"ordinary_loss":2.626690213337311,"stress":25.913232637416957,"target_gain":10.003075328263728,"rr":3.8082432703605487,"gap_assumption":0.125794155019}],"correlation":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.778166,"EEM":0.692624},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.778166,"IWM":1,"EEM":0.650545},"EEM":{"QQQ":0.692624,"IWM":0.650545,"EEM":1}},"sample":1260,"sim_paths":20000,"sim_days":20,"pnl_p05":-22.52860778178244,"pnl_median":2.002015332182263,"pnl_p95":28.83529192243787,"worst_day_basket":-15.149301684968588,"joint_gap_stress":76.44269465148402} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
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