POWL R92000 costed breakout L40 holdout slip0.005 = -4.537040482506041
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:09
{"symbol":"POWL","L":40,"period":"holdout","slip":0.005,"ret":-4.537040482506041,"dd":54.33117799578372,"n":15,"win":33.33333333333333,"mean":1.2944878935617148,"boundary":0}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L40 holdout slip0.0015 = 6.031850995181173
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:09
{"symbol":"POWL","L":40,"period":"holdout","slip":0.0015,"ret":6.031850995181173,"dd":51.36144335491285,"n":15,"win":33.33333333333333,"mean":2.006045095703142,"boundary":0}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L40 train slip0.005 = -59.940367074210535
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:09
{"symbol":"POWL","L":40,"period":"train","slip":0.005,"ret":-59.940367074210535,"dd":69.13072586067331,"n":41,"win":21.951219512195124,"mean":-1.5853310445553548,"boundary":1}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L40 train slip0.0015 = -46.623397658230395
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:09
{"symbol":"POWL","L":40,"period":"train","slip":0.0015,"ret":-46.623397658230395,"dd":63.110016228700594,"n":41,"win":21.951219512195124,"mean":-0.8940035306120941,"boundary":1}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L20 recent slip0.005 = 70.27426181027762
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":20,"period":"recent","slip":0.005,"ret":70.27426181027762,"dd":26.755445868949547,"n":5,"win":60,"mean":13.392227430566278,"boundary":0}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L20 recent slip0.0015 = 76.33945292406867
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":20,"period":"recent","slip":0.0015,"ret":76.33945292406867,"dd":25.981475305792213,"n":5,"win":60,"mean":14.188766884715662,"boundary":0}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L20 holdout slip0.005 = 19.27298210894321
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":20,"period":"holdout","slip":0.005,"ret":19.27298210894321,"dd":52.070442562990685,"n":16,"win":37.5,"mean":2.763683153597448,"boundary":0}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L20 holdout slip0.0015 = 33.4085374942312
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":20,"period":"holdout","slip":0.0015,"ret":33.4085374942312,"dd":49.66337480702905,"n":16,"win":37.5,"mean":3.4855609219450967,"boundary":0}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L20 train slip0.005 = -60.67528293601365
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":20,"period":"train","slip":0.005,"ret":-60.67528293601365,"dd":70.7232285012096,"n":49,"win":26.53061224489796,"mean":-1.238674224726503,"boundary":1}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L20 train slip0.0015 = -44.58461696895133
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":20,"period":"train","slip":0.0015,"ret":-44.58461696895133,"dd":64.38393890891435,"n":49,"win":26.53061224489796,"mean":-0.5449115717944357,"boundary":1}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L10 recent slip0.005 = 72.49374615480784
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":10,"period":"recent","slip":0.005,"ret":72.49374615480784,"dd":30.043450747916577,"n":5,"win":60,"mean":13.719100758391026,"boundary":0}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L10 recent slip0.0015 = 78.63799558651789
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":10,"period":"recent","slip":0.0015,"ret":78.63799558651789,"dd":29.552031249260413,"n":5,"win":60,"mean":14.517936379641283,"boundary":0}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L10 holdout slip0.005 = 130.38251128456542
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":10,"period":"holdout","slip":0.005,"ret":130.38251128456542,"dd":38.06983920763641,"n":15,"win":46.666666666666664,"mean":7.612746547370369,"boundary":1}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L10 holdout slip0.0015 = 155.8886109532796
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":10,"period":"holdout","slip":0.0015,"ret":155.8886109532796,"dd":37.196709193894975,"n":15,"win":46.666666666666664,"mean":8.368687235164387,"boundary":1}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L10 train slip0.005 = -66.76242343314401
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":10,"period":"train","slip":0.005,"ret":-66.76242343314401,"dd":77.85338543535988,"n":54,"win":25.925925925925924,"mean":-1.307766995348778,"boundary":1}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 costed breakout L10 train slip0.0015 = -51.49410006144942
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:08
{"symbol":"POWL","L":10,"period":"train","slip":0.0015,"ret":-51.49410006144942,"dd":71.30601142200359,"n":54,"win":25.925925925925924,"mean":-0.614489694182386,"boundary":1}; fixed baseline target, fees5bp/side; nextopen,2ATRstop/net3R,60session,adjusted bars. Train2016-23 holdout2024-25 recent2026. Boundary count explicit. vectorbt reconciled compounded exits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
LW R92000 final inclusive-event distribution = 11
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:08
{"N":11,"median":0.10017371163867983,"P80":0.2010752688172044,"medianCI":[0.02571196094385675,0.2010752688172044],"P80CI":[0.10017371163867983,0.28237361449040277],"trainmedian":0.1629035661531968,"holdoutmedian":0.04882972642087757}; Oct2024 alignment sensitivity29826 unchanged decision. IID bootstrap50k seed92000; intervals omit regime/selection uncertainty.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
POWL R92000 nine-month cash bridge = 184.652
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:06
Aug4 filing forJune30:OCF195.038m-capex10.386m=FCF184.652m. Contract workingcapital contributed188.763m while AR consumed146.438m. Removing contract contribution alone yields-4.111m, a sensitivity NOT normalized earnings; retain offsetting AR context. Contract liabilities466.362m, cash633.561m, shares36.432564m.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80420/000008042026000107/powl-20260630.htm
LW R92000 fiscal2026 cash-versus-earnings countercase = 532.8
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:06
July24 issuer FYendedMay31: OCF942.9m-capex410.1m=532.8m cashproxy; prior868.3m-650.7m=217.6m. OCFgrowth74.6m includes55.1m workingcapital; netdebt repayments240.7m, distributions320.7m. FYvolume+7%,price/mix-6%,adjustedEBITDA1147m-9%; extraweek sales127.1m,EBITDA28.9m. Q4InternationalEBITDA12m vs63m. RecheckedSep20; no newresults claimed.
https://news.lambweston.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lamb-weston-announces-q4-and-full-year-fiscal-2026-results
SFIX R92000 bear-thesis counterevidence baseline = 229.4
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:06
June10 issuer Q3endedMay2: cash/investments229.4m,no debt,activeclients2.309m +.9%QoQ/-1.9%YoY,rev340.3m+4.7%,FCF6.5m vsbuybacks15.1m,GM43.7% down50bp. Priorquarterfacts recheckedSep20, notfreshweekendresults. GuidanceQ4rev322–327m/EBITDA7–10m. Issuer interestedparty; no consensus comparison.
https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
LW R92000 October2024 missing-event sensitivity supersedes N10-only selection = 11
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:06
Issuer page Oct1 date/header08:00 but callOct2 10ET leaves first-news alignment unresolved. SIP Oct1close reaction+.261054%,Oct2+2.571196%; including either as11thevent reduces median to10.017371% andP80to20.107527%,P37.5P80payoff.2141828/.23=.93122955x. Thus N10exclusion inflated tail to21.271719%/3.293526x. Decision requires rejection under both alignments. Chronological proxy baseline usesOct2 with ambiguity flagged; no choosing largerP80.
https://investors.lambweston.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lamb-weston-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-2025-results-announces
R92000 FDA calendar scope = 0
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
RetrievedSep20: Oct1 2026 09–13ET meeting concerns2027SouthernHemisphere influenza strain selection; nonbinding advice, not namedcompanyapprovaldeadline. No matched event study or automaticMRNA/BNTX/GSKtrade inferred.
https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-october-1-2026-meeting-announcement
LW R92000 verified next earnings = 16
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Sep8 issuer says October6 2026 approximately08ET results and09ETcall,16calendar days fromSep20. RetrievedSep20. Directissuer, prospective schedule subjectearlynews/change.
https://news.lambweston.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lamb-weston-announce-fiscal-year-2027-first-quarter-financial
LW R92000 affordable expiry-eligible contract LW261016P00020000 = 0
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Sep18 quotes retrieved Sep20; Oct16 expiry10days after issuerOct6 event. N10 close reaction median13.153864%,P8021.271719%. P80intrinsic not actualoptionEV. {"symbol":"LW261016P00020000","ask":0.03,"bid":0,"strike":20,"hurdle":0.5721019927148061,"P80payoff":0,"multiple":0,"coverage":0,"passgate":false,"mean_intrinsic":0,"signed_payoffs":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative
LW R92000 affordable expiry-eligible contract LW261016C00060000 = 0
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:05
Sep18 quotes retrieved Sep20; Oct16 expiry10days after issuerOct6 event. N10 close reaction median13.153864%,P8021.271719%. P80intrinsic not actualoptionEV. {"symbol":"LW261016C00060000","ask":0.13,"bid":0,"strike":60,"hurdle":0.2884079708592243,"P80payoff":0,"multiple":0,"coverage":0,"passgate":false,"mean_intrinsic":0,"signed_payoffs":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative