Notes

MeasuredSep20fromSIP/all2016–Sep18,2026;252priorintradayhigh/1.5prior20volume/2mprior20dollarvolume,21sessionseparation,nextopen-to20close; no pagination. Figures {"N":4,"S":21.19,"priorhigh":20.85,"volume_ratio":2.4195459251783733,"median_pct":27.38989920645728,"P80_pct":44.318625123012964,"hurdle_pct":28.268050967437464,"P80_multiple":19.895092575369155,"signed_wins":2,"LOO_multiple_min":3.2780093283360006,"LOO_multiple_max":21.58005600719483,"positive_P80_pct":44.318625123012964,"worst_event_pct":-13.323782234957026,"best_event_pct":48.612538540596105,"P80_10d_multiple":0,"P80_20d_multiple":19.895092575369155,"P80_30d_multiple":17.593244670477702,"train_N":2,"train_median_pct":27.38989920645728,"train_P80_multiple":9.901587520026903,"holdout_N":2,"holdout_median_pct":28.841667500386542,"holdout_P80_multiple":15.640099374356433} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep20fromSIP/all2016–Sep18,2026;252priorintradayhigh/1.5prior20volume/2mprior20dollarvolume,21sessionseparation,nextopen-to20close; no pagination. Figures {"N":17,"S":112.45,"priorhigh":111.15,"volume_ratio":6.930643987473309,"median_pct":10.526315789473673,"P80_pct":17.236693065385033,"hurdle_pct":15.81147176522898,"P80_multiple":7.96809283489334,"signed_wins":2,"LOO_multiple_min":0,"LOO_multiple_max":11.684546407159903,"positive_P80_pct":9.452334085990799,"worst_event_pct":-23.33023122628678,"best_event_pct":34.188877920368554,"P80_10d_multiple":0,"P80_20d_multiple":7.96809283489334,"P80_30d_multiple":4.9397267049607265,"train_N":14,"train_median_pct":4.993833378925566,"train_P80_multiple":0,"holdout_N":3,"holdout_median_pct":23.06666666666668,"holdout_P80_multiple":37.244755108879886} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

RetrievedSep20, 20 issuer exdates Sep2021-Jun2026; columns exdate,issuer dollars at then-share scale,implied all/raw factor dollars,error: 2026-06-22,0.384876,0.38,-0.004876;2026-03-23,0.385178,0.385084,-0.000094;2025-12-22,0.373015,0.376191,0.003176;2025-09-22,0.748731,0.747761,-0.00097;2025-06-23,0.718258,0.722686,0.004428;2025-03-24,0.71633,0.719916,0.003586;2024-12-23,0.699989,0.702412,0.002423;2024-09-23,0.727492,0.728118,0.000626;2024-06-24,0.714839,0.706994,-0.007845;2024-03-18,0.733933,0.731388,-0.002545;2023-12-18,0.802139,0.801926,-0.000213;2023-09-18,0.673608,0.67587,0.002262;2023-06-20,0.705843,0.70558,-0.000263;2023-03-20,0.795347,0.791569,-0.003778;2022-12-19,0.85963,0.858778,-0.000852;2022-09-19,0.846245,0.84535,-0.000895;2022-06-21,0.815061,0.820429,0.005368;2022-03-21,0.699962,0.705267,0.005305;2021-12-20,0.695015,0.693134,-0.001881;2021-09-20,0.591901,0.586713,-0.005188; corrected score 19.71167402062704,252return 47.386314055957456,P90 0.20632161289433842. Replace audited factor steps only; not full independent total-return reconstruction. https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx

{"checks":[{"date":"2026-06-15","issuer":0.350802,"implied":0.34999999999999093,"error":-0.0008020000000090732},{"date":"2025-12-16","issuer":0.763266,"implied":0.768309618668183,"error":0.005043618668183036},{"date":"2025-06-16","issuer":0.4516,"implied":0.45100172711571884,"error":-0.0005982728842811591},{"date":"2024-12-17","issuer":0.72737,"implied":0.7270524802300431,"error":-0.00031751976995686437},{"date":"2024-06-11","issuer":0.289856,"implied":0.29392098024506297,"error":0.004064980245062966},{"date":"2023-12-20","issuer":0.748036,"implied":0.7538181818181745,"error":0.00578218181817447},{"date":"2023-06-07","issuer":0.310139,"implied":0.31892068683564917,"error":0.008781686835649172},{"date":"2022-12-13","issuer":0.584321,"implied":0.5806171107994337,"error":-0.0037038892005663016},{"date":"2022-06-09","issuer":0.361869,"implied":0.370081902245709,"error":0.00821290224570903},{"date":"2021-12-30","issuer":0.026007,"implied":0.02418830435764482,"error":-0.0018186956423551781}],"corrected_r252":28.301024386575023,"corrected_score":28.301024386575023,"corrected_p90":0.10717963493264468,"max_abs_amount_error":0.008781686835649172,"n":10}; Issuer closest distribution source retrievedSep20, dates are ex dates. Implied distribution=Pprevious*(1-factorPrevious/factorEx). Factor=allClose/rawClose. Correct audited historical factors only, not full independent reconstructed history. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLU","adjusted_score":-6.1395445369241655,"price_score":-7.2620163364759485,"price_r252":-2.5489033787788884,"adjusted_r252":0.17060687301975186,"price_p90":0.09505004579096879,"adjusted_p90":0.10239288498446239},"audit":{"symbol":"XLU","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.8261153783297924,"factor_max":1,"split_ratio":0.4953281943471151,"repaired":true}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLRE","adjusted_score":0.012913486663970741,"price_score":-1.4638695908615635,"price_r252":1.1896264572924142,"adjusted_r252":4.676347526458269,"price_p90":0.0978047500155555,"adjusted_p90":0.10853497921567627},"audit":{"symbol":"XLRE","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.8103306914457501,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLP","adjusted_score":1.0267345705447017,"price_score":-0.17973668923705055,"price_r252":3.1904287138584175,"adjusted_r252":6.0586653003714686,"price_p90":0.06994797669887912,"adjusted_p90":0.07653027888248405},"audit":{"symbol":"XLP","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.847014283255894,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLY","adjusted_score":-4.290933422531628,"price_score":-4.6177507041934325,"price_r252":-8.076333981868611,"adjusted_r252":-7.363063701973216,"price_p90":0.14664403289125572,"adjusted_p90":0.14896551962962673},"audit":{"symbol":"XLY","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.9506757272657861,"factor_max":1,"split_ratio":0.5027881040892194,"repaired":true}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLV","adjusted_score":12.442229112273706,"price_score":11.537557269695291,"price_r252":22.7332361516035,"adjusted_r252":24.872080088987758,"price_p90":0.10141299633243535,"adjusted_p90":0.10628648222527133},"audit":{"symbol":"XLV","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.9041723532852408,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLK","adjusted_score":20.03611920730362,"price_score":19.73835057991556,"price_r252":39.70452787090593,"adjusted_r252":40.43924299100033,"price_p90":0.1811094458313793,"adjusted_p90":0.18362192237650138},"audit":{"symbol":"XLK","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.9523948883035801,"factor_max":1,"split_ratio":0.5036561810154525,"repaired":true}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLI","adjusted_score":1.2816263840419757,"price_score":0.7268446332742012,"price_r252":12.313087203916906,"adjusted_r252":13.75820935531431,"price_p90":0.11651410896100715,"adjusted_p90":0.12087676778130486},"audit":{"symbol":"XLI","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.9100436681222708,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLF","adjusted_score":5.434559157153523,"price_score":4.692774806689609,"price_r252":3.2914201183432024,"adjusted_r252":4.901408450704214,"price_p90":0.11408933824192884,"adjusted_p90":0.11838838877512908},"audit":{"symbol":"XLF","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.8936430317848411,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLE","adjusted_score":19.70521568219219,"price_score":18.004027257171174,"price_r252":42.92699188798756,"adjusted_r252":47.38168901111494,"price_p90":0.195103318514188,"adjusted_p90":0.20627946697730823},"audit":{"symbol":"XLE","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.782564877802973,"factor_max":1,"split_ratio":0.49789356984478933,"repaired":true}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLC","adjusted_score":-1.5056081464132842,"price_score":-2.006023760693845,"price_r252":-6.749137423209628,"adjusted_r252":-5.5730720068172035,"price_p90":0.1351567883430033,"adjusted_p90":0.13790962490769748},"audit":{"symbol":"XLC","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.941047235444892,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"XLB","adjusted_score":2.4088900441124936,"price_score":1.6020729849520854,"price_r252":10.025310883679971,"adjusted_r252":12.03496190049307,"price_p90":0.09745702784743411,"adjusted_p90":0.10243167306427377},"audit":{"symbol":"XLB","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.8843941028407047,"factor_max":1,"split_ratio":0.4983963344788087,"repaired":true}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"SPY","adjusted_score":17.127216250711207,"price_score":15.55113929427472,"price_r252":15.55113929427472,"adjusted_r252":17.127216250711207,"price_p90":0.10424730325087743,"adjusted_p90":0.10841930825440019},"audit":{"symbol":"SPY","n":1584,"different_closes":1583,"factor_min":0.9145438815726235,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"QQQ","adjusted_score":22.86901578759135,"price_score":22.27966101694916,"price_r252":22.27966101694916,"adjusted_r252":22.86901578759135,"price_p90":0.15997765730983862,"adjusted_p90":0.1616958533244174},"audit":{"symbol":"QQQ","n":1584,"different_closes":1521,"factor_min":0.9615700780928893,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"IWM","adjusted_score":20.131929468476486,"price_score":18.92502825568254,"price_r252":18.92502825568254,"adjusted_r252":20.131929468476486,"price_p90":0.12500968978081636,"adjusted_p90":0.12821050854556687},"audit":{"symbol":"IWM","n":1584,"different_closes":1580,"factor_min":0.9244642478251646,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"GLD","adjusted_score":19.05214114016085,"price_score":19.05214114016085,"price_r252":19.05214114016085,"adjusted_r252":19.05214114016085,"price_p90":0.16781703911009302,"adjusted_p90":0.16781703911009302},"audit":{"symbol":"GLD","n":1584,"different_closes":0,"factor_min":1,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"EFA","adjusted_score":16.737099644128108,"price_score":12.87096774193548,"price_r252":12.87096774193548,"adjusted_r252":16.737099644128108,"price_p90":0.08594671104326479,"adjusted_p90":0.09630282889112697},"audit":{"symbol":"EFA","n":1584,"different_closes":1517,"factor_min":0.822892498066512,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"EEM","adjusted_score":28.311638591117916,"price_score":25.854299662035295,"price_r252":25.854299662035295,"adjusted_r252":28.311638591117916,"price_p90":0.10322590978518695,"adjusted_p90":0.10717963493264468},"audit":{"symbol":"EEM","n":1584,"different_closes":1517,"factor_min":0.8709844559585491,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"comparison":{"symbol":"TLT","adjusted_score":-5.709643727515379,"price_score":-9.84243231247226,"price_r252":-9.84243231247226,"adjusted_r252":-5.709643727515379,"price_p90":0.05247300053517648,"adjusted_p90":0.06150557763249668},"audit":{"symbol":"TLT","n":1584,"different_closes":1571,"factor_min":0.8233270794246405,"factor_max":1}}; raw split-normalized only, all split-repaired. Same1584sessions throughSep18; diagnostic not alternative entry rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Read2026-09-20; issuer21 ex-date cash events2021-2026. Prices from SIP all/split. Columns date,split-normalized cash,1-D/priorClose,feed factor,error bp: [["2026-06-22",0.381148,0.9913099,0.99133607,0.26174191],["2026-03-23",0.271061,0.99332198,0.99328388,-0.38098055],["2025-12-22",0.436108,0.98918651,0.9892253,0.38783874],["2025-09-22",0.316686,0.99243283,0.99250994,0.77109198],["2025-06-23",0.375403,0.99102551,0.99090808,-1.17423039],["2025-03-24",0.263606,0.99364958,0.99363614,-0.13436627],["2024-12-23",0.43361,0.9893697,0.98949276,1.2306182],["2024-09-23",0.311485,0.99302854,0.99309721,0.68675738],["2024-06-24",0.387111,0.98993994,0.9899534,0.13454953],["2024-03-18",0.263591,0.99324818,0.99336072,1.12537191],["2023-12-18",0.420763,0.98948092,0.98946832,-0.12605441],["2023-09-18",0.291033,0.99208934,0.99208258,-0.06765303],["2023-06-20",0.35885,0.99047891,0.99041561,-0.63299359],["2023-03-20",0.255887,0.99293715,0.99278364,-1.53513248],["2022-12-19",0.420683,0.98878179,0.98878065,-0.01132911],["2022-09-19",0.363777,0.99098446,0.99107191,0.87450841],["2022-06-21",0.312434,0.99200527,0.99195827,-0.46999549],["2022-03-21",0.268545,0.9943141,0.99435387,0.3976992],["2021-12-20",0.425422,0.99150006,0.99153518,0.35118829],["2021-09-20",0.260856,0.9944321,0.99464582,2.13714068],["2021-06-21",0.285374,0.99356251,0.99357641,0.13898156]] https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx

{"symbol":"XLRE","div_events":21,"max_factor_error_bp":2.137140675568805,"mean_total_return":0.00001738581019281038,"mean_feed_return":0.0001291348666397074,"return_differences_pp":{"r21":0,"r63":-0.007867134520633812,"r126":-0.01161518928454175,"r252":-0.025217298773583252},"cash_reinvest_p90":0.10859513111084142,"latest_events":[{"symbol":"XLRE","date":"2026-03-23","div":0.271061,"expected":0.9933219758561223,"actual":0.9932838778011905,"error_bp":-0.38098054931712255},{"symbol":"XLRE","date":"2026-06-22","div":0.381148,"expected":0.991309895120839,"actual":0.9913360693114455,"error_bp":0.26174190606464975}],"split_only_mean":-0.014638695908615634,"split_only_p90":0.0978047500155555} https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx

Read2026-09-20; issuer21 ex-date cash events2021-2026. Prices from SIP all/split. Columns date,split-normalized cash,1-D/priorClose,feed factor,error bp: [["2026-06-22",0.284415,0.99364578,0.99374441,0.98637176],["2026-03-23",0.309942,0.99305841,0.99299511,-0.63304352],["2025-12-22",0.31721,0.992559,0.9924434,-1.15597339],["2025-09-22",0.2839135,0.99331575,0.99320793,-1.07818944],["2025-06-23",0.2786985,0.99309981,0.99309785,-0.01964199],["2025-03-24",0.2775145,0.99295201,0.99302924,0.77227953],["2024-12-23",0.3139945,0.99178348,0.99174949,-0.33985901],["2024-09-23",0.269743,0.99326316,0.99327834,0.1518091],["2024-06-24",0.2775375,0.99200065,0.99193004,-0.70603938],["2024-03-18",0.2597775,0.99181287,0.99183752,0.24647168],["2023-12-18",0.298587,0.99066478,0.99061776,-0.470221],["2023-09-18",0.2607975,0.99196805,0.99205858,0.90530146],["2023-06-20",0.268299,0.99202678,0.99193177,-0.95010466],["2023-03-20",0.244873,0.99268708,0.99270532,0.18237761],["2022-12-19",0.2861205,0.9918808,0.99188214,0.01335874],["2022-09-19",0.2507115,0.99326678,0.99333932,0.72540261],["2022-06-21",0.257699,0.99205491,0.99199192,-0.62987577],["2022-03-21",0.234745,0.99336972,0.99341577,0.46048243],["2021-12-20",0.27278,0.9922074,0.9923263,1.18900743],["2021-09-20",0.2495915,0.99248218,0.99240005,-0.82138095],["2021-06-21",0.247159,0.99228833,0.99227331,-0.15016131]] https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx