Notes

{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":284.1,"annual":0.20131929468476484,"sma":273.51065,"atr":3.2170000000000045,"p90":0.12821050854556687,"p90_n":1255,"high20":299.61,"above":true,"rank":3,"size":93.33} Retrieved Sep20 06UTC; adjusted SIP equities through Sep18, completed crypto Sep19. Size conditional, not executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":401.17,"annual":0.1905214114016085,"sma":416.22065,"atr":7.923445000000004,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"p90_n":1255,"high20":429.42,"above":false,"rank":null,"size":0} Retrieved Sep20 06UTC; adjusted SIP equities through Sep18, completed crypto Sep19. Size conditional, not executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":104.97,"annual":0.16737099644128106,"sma":101.03105,"atr":1.0289949999999997,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"p90_n":1255,"high20":108.83,"above":true,"rank":5,"size":0} Retrieved Sep20 06UTC; adjusted SIP equities through Sep18, completed crypto Sep19. Size conditional, not executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":67.03,"annual":0.28311638591117916,"sma":62.091550000000005,"atr":0.9432499999999997,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"p90_n":1255,"high20":69.125,"above":true,"rank":1,"size":93.33} Retrieved Sep20 06UTC; adjusted SIP equities through Sep18, completed crypto Sep19. Size conditional, not executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

[{"FCF":286,"yield_required":0.1,"price":26.059480527399423},{"FCF":286,"yield_required":0.12,"price":21.71623377283285},{"FCF":286,"yield_required":0.15,"price":17.372987018266283},{"FCF":500,"yield_required":0.1,"price":45.558532390558426},{"FCF":500,"yield_required":0.12,"price":37.96544365879869},{"FCF":500,"yield_required":0.15,"price":30.372354927038955},{"FCF":700,"yield_required":0.1,"price":63.781945346781804},{"FCF":700,"yield_required":0.12,"price":53.151621122318176},{"FCF":700,"yield_required":0.15,"price":42.52129689785453},{"FCF":750,"yield_required":0.1,"price":68.33779858583765},{"FCF":750,"yield_required":0.12,"price":56.948165488198036},{"FCF":750,"yield_required":0.15,"price":45.558532390558426},{"FCF":800,"yield_required":0.1,"price":72.89365182489348},{"FCF":800,"yield_required":0.12,"price":60.74470985407791},{"FCF":800,"yield_required":0.15,"price":48.59576788326233}]; annualFCFUSDm, pricesUSD/share. Yield10/12/15%areassumptions, notmarketquotes orfairvalueestimates. 286annualizesseasonalH1andisnotbaseforecast. 700–800issuer2026guide; durabilityunknown. No one gridcellselectedtoforce3R. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000114/q220268-kex991b.htm

{"shares_m":109.748926,"marketcap_m":4983.698729659999,"netdebt_m":10643,"ev_m":15626.698729659998,"netdebt_equity":2.135562476250665,"pe_guide":7.5683333333333325,"fcf_yield_guide":[14.045792853288221,15.049063771380236,16.052334689472254],"fcf_yield_H1annualized":5.73870965148633,"H2needed_m":[557,657],"H2_H1_multiple":[3.895104895104895,4.594405594405594],"nutrinova_per_share":1.3849793846729763,"nutrinova_multiple":38,"netdebt_paydown_pct":1.4281687494127595,"EPS_lost":0.036446825912446745,"Acetyl_decline_pct":-26.791277258566982,"Acetyl_difference_m":86,"hurdle_FCF_at_yield":{"0.1":617.743955726382,"0.12":741.2927468716583,"0.15":926.6159335895729},"incremental_EPS_one_quarter":{"0.08":0.7209182165481967,"0.2":0.6268854056940839,"0.25":0.5877050678382038,"0.3":0.5485247299823235}}; USDm except per-share/ratios. Price45.41 from /data/stock-bars. FCFissuerdefinition correction30351. Tax8%issuerforecast versus20–30%normalized assumptions. H1annualization is diagnostic, not forecast. Nutrinova152m conditionalQ4, notrecurringFCF. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000117/ce-20260630.htm

{"ethyl":6.666666666666665,"anhydride":11.764705882352944,"butyl":14.049586776859503,"propyl":-12.790697674418606} percent over8days versus https://www.laxmi.com/documents/default.aspx?f=customer-info/price-announcement-1048.pdf . Same immediate-payment terms; no volume weights or invoice realization, so do not call this a weighted chemical price index. Negativepropyl falsifies uniform inflation claim. https://www.laxmi.com/documents/default.aspx?f=customer-info/price-announcement-1049.pdf

{"symbol":"EMN","regime":"recent","paths":20000,"stop_pct":70.215,"target_pct":19.28,"time_pct":10.505,"mean_pnl_share":-0.8359320844684804,"p05_pnl_share":-7.453366432644417,"p95_pnl_share":12.696650988684453,"loss2shares_p01":-28.5410203058067};seed92004,20kpaths each,4cells80kpaths. Empirical close return blocks start2017 or2025; fixedSept18barriers,20bps eachside, overshoot atclose included. No intraday high/low,conditional signal ornews model; probabilities NOT calibrated trade odds. EMN2shares stress diagnostic exceeds120fundcap, no such position proposed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"EMN","regime":"long","paths":20000,"stop_pct":61.650000000000006,"target_pct":20.93,"time_pct":17.419999999999998,"mean_pnl_share":0.22895695527878124,"p05_pnl_share":-6.377728092689025,"p95_pnl_share":12.5693869030824,"loss2shares_p01":-21.250987066284715};seed92004,20kpaths each,4cells80kpaths. Empirical close return blocks start2017 or2025; fixedSept18barriers,20bps eachside, overshoot atclose included. No intraday high/low,conditional signal ornews model; probabilities NOT calibrated trade odds. EMN2shares stress diagnostic exceeds120fundcap, no such position proposed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"CE","regime":"recent","paths":20000,"stop_pct":69.85,"target_pct":24.55,"time_pct":5.6000000000000005,"mean_pnl_share":-0.2645367355674267,"p05_pnl_share":-7.792121871438534,"p95_pnl_share":12.781969534573584,"loss2shares_p01":-18.925380236130604};seed92004,20kpaths each,4cells80kpaths. Empirical close return blocks start2017 or2025; fixedSept18barriers,20bps eachside, overshoot atclose included. No intraday high/low,conditional signal ornews model; probabilities NOT calibrated trade odds. EMN2shares stress diagnostic exceeds120fundcap, no such position proposed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"symbol":"CE","regime":"long","paths":20000,"stop_pct":57.52,"target_pct":17.2,"time_pct":25.28,"mean_pnl_share":0.15051007396715677,"p05_pnl_share":-6.703786791951792,"p95_pnl_share":11.801614284099035,"loss2shares_p01":-21.845661618519856};seed92004,20kpaths each,4cells80kpaths. Empirical close return blocks start2017 or2025; fixedSept18barriers,20bps eachside, overshoot atclose included. No intraday high/low,conditional signal ornews model; probabilities NOT calibrated trade odds. EMN2shares stress diagnostic exceeds120fundcap, no such position proposed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":5,"pwin":0.2,"avgwin_pct":14.03505982857255,"avgloss_pct":7.437813415905913,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-3.1432387670102195,"mean_CI95_pct":[-7.870773213216825,5.493070312341293]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":5,"pwin":0.2,"avgwin_pct":14.836114948204655,"avgloss_pct":6.787597477412997,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-2.4628549922894667,"mean_CI95_pct":[-7.247985256204817,6.304716568711659]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":15,"pwin":0.13333333333333333,"avgwin_pct":14.342430364070925,"avgloss_pct":5.189317280305964,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-2.585084261055711,"mean_CI95_pct":[-5.485027947247429,1.2944488225111732]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":15,"pwin":0.13333333333333333,"avgwin_pct":15.14564465072985,"avgloss_pct":4.523306468345164,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-1.9007796524684963,"mean_CI95_pct":[-4.822981197569016,2.003371063954097]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":35,"pwin":0.3142857142857143,"avgwin_pct":10.021291372972179,"avgloss_pct":5.771079409115892,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-0.8077628776024979,"mean_CI95_pct":[-3.5475683918097243,2.172810174693522]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":35,"pwin":0.3142857142857143,"avgwin_pct":10.794151218491137,"avgloss_pct":5.109155266047901,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-0.11097322804991769,"mean_CI95_pct":[-2.823237055967399,2.9053580843417706]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":4,"pwin":0.25,"avgwin_pct":23.153670619120202,"avgloss_pct":8.905067314424915,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-0.8903828310386355,"mean_CI95_pct":[-11.321316811686282,14.890647106460813]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":4,"pwin":0.25,"avgwin_pct":24.018780687017184,"avgloss_pct":8.265158304774557,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-0.1941735568266217,"mean_CI95_pct":[-10.698381082297276,15.697712417785498]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":12,"pwin":0.25,"avgwin_pct":8.644472948754318,"avgloss_pct":6.051684968632134,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-2.377645489285522,"mean_CI95_pct":[-6.087315174527473,2.4162104969861113]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":12,"pwin":0.25,"avgwin_pct":9.407661141983343,"avgloss_pct":5.391731978298983,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-1.6918836982284011,"mean_CI95_pct":[-5.412533421351155,3.1092795147924592]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":29,"pwin":0.3103448275862069,"avgwin_pct":9.85147251657509,"avgloss_pct":6.739342833555131,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-1.5904691042043733,"mean_CI95_pct":[-4.462988262598928,1.6091960053490808]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":29,"pwin":0.3103448275862069,"avgwin_pct":10.623139445945872,"avgloss_pct":6.084220391424254,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0,"mean_pct":-0.8991776832749047,"mean_CI95_pct":[-3.7917470250464707,2.2958757296609984]};20,000IID bootstrap means, small selected conditional sample; not independently calibrated future odds. HalfKelly=max(0,0.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgWin/avgLoss))), fraction of equity at risk, not dollars allocated. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":179,"beta":0.9004264152984888,"daily_alpha_pct":-0.00587314299191566,"correlation":0.3671834641052106,"volatility_annual_pct":32.504060023452794}; intercept/beta vsSPY, descriptive not causal shortage attribution or significance claim. train2017–22,heldapart2023–25,recent2026. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars