Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
DBC Original TSMOM evidence and implementation distance = 58
Quant replication2026-09-07 04:05
Moskowitz/Ooi/Pedersen2012JFE,accepted2011;primaryauthor-hostedpaperreadSep7 2026. 58liquidfutures/forwards,coreJan1985-Dec2009test;12monthpast excessreturn sign,monthlyhold,longshortandinversevolatilitysizing(40%individualinstrumentannualvolnormalization). Documentsmonthlypersistence;doesnotvalidateDBC-onlylongcash,firstopenexecution,ATRtargetsor15mintrail. AuthorsincludeAQRaffiliates;originalempiricalstudy,notindependentproofcurrentprofit. Thisrun'squestionisimplementationtransfer. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf
TLX Historical PDUFA dates and early Gozellix approval = 3
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 04:05
FY2024presentation datedFeb20 2025 confirms GozellixMarch24 andPixclaraApril26. July22 2025 issuer confirmsZircaixAugust27. Gozellix approval announcedMarch21 (Australia),beforeMarch24goal; exact firstUTCminute unverified. These three historicalevents selectedwithin availableUSADSpricehistory,not a complete independentFDAcohort. Announcements predate fixedT-5entry. Sponsor origins not independent replicated evidence. https://ir.telixpharma.com/static-files/9959d5f3-16cc-49fc-89eb-4a4af5b57049 ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/telix-reports-204m-revenue-up-63-yoy/ ; https://ir.telixpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fda-approves-new-prostate-cancer-imaging-agent-gozellixr
BTC/USD SideSwap customer pegout chronology and software attribution = 3996
Crypto majors2026-09-07 04:05
Original Sep6 21:19:15UTC statement retrieved through api.fxtwitter.com/side_swap/status/2096709838310928674 atSep7~04:04. Operator claims customer4000LBTC14:05UTC, burned/authorized, federation paid3996BTC14:28; attributes source LBTC to Elements bug established by Blockstream, denies own/key compromise. Swaps/pegins/pegouts paused; already paid BTC complete. Claims noncustodial keys unaffected are distinct from asset backing/access. Root cause remains operator attribution, not independent code verification; team offline overnight per statement, no restart time promised. https://x.com/side_swap/status/2096709838310928674
TLX BiPASS enrollment confounder, no dated topline = 350
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 04:05
Issuer page datedSep2 2026, RSSSep1UTC. Completed350 enrollment in prospective openlabel prebiopsy prostate imagingstudy; NDApathway alignment conditional on results/approval. No exact topline date established here. Distinct from Pixclara glioma NDA. Recent stock movement cannot be uniquely attributed to Pixclara given this news. https://telixpharma.com/news-views/telix-completes-enrollment-in-phase-3-bipass-study-aligns-with-fda-on-nda-pathway/
BTC/USD Liquid operator incident statement and chronology = 4000
Crypto majors2026-09-07 04:05
Sep6 20:25:20UTC original statement retrieved Sep7 ~04:04 via https://api.fxtwitter.com/Liquid_BTC/status/2096696272447218108 (X direct403; mirror transport, not independent corroboration). Operator says ~4000BTC withdrawn through SideSwap PAK, keys not compromised; bridge nodes disabled, sidechain paused, LBTC exchange deposits/withdrawals suspended or to suspend. Other issued assets unaffected by security incident per operator, but wallet/network use impacted. Issuer is closest operator but reputationally interested; no technical root-cause report or recovery confirmed. Supplied Sep7 03:27 headline is at least7h1m40s later than this statement, not first event. https://x.com/Liquid_BTC/status/2096696272447218108
TLX Correction to observation7421 cash balance = 252
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 04:05
CORRECTION: prior7421 cash716 was a transcription error without source support; discard716. Direct source line7 confirms cashUS$252m atJune30 2026; line6 US$600m new convertiblebonds due2031. Use252 in allanalysis. No proposal acted on erroneousnumber. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000162828026058126/announcement.htm
USGS 2025 estimated antimony import reliance = 91
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
MCS2026governmentannualestimatefor2025; apparentconsumption45000metrictonnes,price25USD/lb vs10.24in2024. HistoricalannualnotSept2026spot; primaryagencyaggregate, revisionspossible. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026.pdf
UAMY Buyback authorization not executed cash = 100000000
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug19issuer:upto100m,noexpiration,noobligation; boardmaymodify/suspend/terminate. Do notinfercompletedbuybacks orpricefloor. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/2026-08-19-Share-repurchase-program.pdf
LRV.AX Larvotto offtake counterparty
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
June9issuer:goldconcentrate7yrGlencore; existingantimonyconcentrateWogen. UAMYequityownershipdoesnotestablishownedexclusiveore. https://www.larvottoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/61328765.pdf
LRV.AX Larvotto new drill release = 10
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Sep7operatorASX:10of16holesassayed,6pending; exploration/resourcegrowth, notnewshippedtonnesorcash. Strongintercepts cannotbe treatednewcashmargin. https://www.larvottoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/61342440.pdf
LRV.AX Larvotto production start and annual target = 4900
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug31operatorASX:productioncommencedAug31,forecast4900metrictonnesSb+40500ozgold annually8yr; notdemonstratedannualthroughput. Promotionalglobal7%claim unverifieddenominator; olderwebpage5400targetstale. https://www.larvottoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/61341464.pdf
UAMY Stibnite Hill hauled ore 2026 to Aug25 = 576
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug25issuerprimary:42truckloads avg~14tons ~10%Sb; reported576tons conflicts42*14=588 approximate. Current42tons/operatingday vs~800/45days2025. Tons notspecifiedmetric; need recoverycosts andfinishedsales. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/2026-08-25-US-Antimony-Corp-Continued-Mining-Success.pdf
UAMY Revised FY2026 revenue guidance midpoint = 67500000
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug11 issuer forecast60–75m vs125mprior dueprice,capacity/coordination timing andshipmentcadence; forecast notrealized. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/Q2_2026_EPR_8.11.26-AsFiled.pdf
UAMY DLA accepted July shipment value = 2600000
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug11 issuer: ~82k pounds deliveredJune,acceptedJuly; Q3 revenue expected. Later~81kpounds2.6m intransit and126kpounds3.97m waitinginspection, total9.17m stagedpipeline NOT allaccepted. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/Q2_2026_EPR_8.11.26-AsFiled.pdf
UAMY June inventory balance = 21600000
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug11 issuer roundedJune30 inventory21.6m versusDec31 12.5m; headlineantimonyinventoryup178% maydifferentquantitybasis, toresolve. Mixforeignandownedore, notfinishedacceptedcash. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/Q2_2026_EPR_8.11.26-AsFiled.pdf
UAMY H1 financing and liquidity = 49100000
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug11 issuerH1 netequityproceeds49.1m; financingcash43.4m afterotherflows; June30cash41.4m+treasuries20.7m, Larvottoequity43.2m; equitymark notoperatingcash. Capex22.8m,grantreceipt12.8m. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/Q2_2026_EPR_8.11.26-AsFiled.pdf
UAMY H1 operating cash use = -20720183
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug11 SEC10Q sixmonthsJun30, versus-2356986 prior; issuerprimary financialstatement, not EBITDA. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101538/000110465926094035/uamy-20260630x10q.htm
UAMY Q2 operating loss versus investment gain = -7000000
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Aug11 Q2 rounded: operatingloss7m, netincome0.1m; unrealizedLarvottogain6.8m+interest0.4m. Grossprofit0.6m onrevenue7.9m,opex7.6m. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/Q2_2026_EPR_8.11.26-AsFiled.pdf
UAMY Q2 antimony realized price and cost per pound = 13.7
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Issuer Aug11,Q2 2026: ASP13.70 vs28.32 prior; cost13.34 vs19.85. Costdecline lags sellingprice; do not substitute spot10.50 for realizedASP. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/Q2_2026_EPR_8.11.26-AsFiled.pdf
UAMY Q2 2026 commercial antimony pounds sold = 428425
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:04
Issuer Aug11, quarterJun30: prior340305; excludes82kDLA pounds acceptedJuly. Promotional issuer primary, sameorigin as10Q. https://usantimony.com/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/2-dbc5eb4a0dee7afbc4a7138457de0fdb/2026/08/Q2_2026_EPR_8.11.26-AsFiled.pdf
Actual own trade sample = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Sep7 04:03UTC empty own ledger; context noholdings/orders; no empirical option winprobability,averagewin/loss or slippage available. Equity850.99 implies fullpremium risk8.5099; fund127.65; actual option payoff holdout remains unavailable, not a measured0% winrate. Primary Alpaca https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data confirms indicative quotes derivatives, not actualOPRA. query_trades?fund=mispricing
FRO Contract metadata multiplier = 100
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Sep7 direct venue metadata44 contracts: active/tradable American FRO root,size100,multiplier100. OI dates generally Sep3; lasttrade closes vary Aug25–Sep4 and are not executable quotes. Metadata is not OCC assurance against prospective special-dividend adjustment. OCC54262 says ordinary policy-based cash distributions generally noadjustment; nonordinary threshold12.50 perstandardcontract; missing FRO-specific memo remains gap. option_contracts?underlying=FRO&expirationFrom=2026-09-18&expirationTo=2026-10-16&strikeFrom=40&strikeTo=50
FRO Indicative chain contracts collected = 252
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Retrieved Sep7 ~04:03UTC; onepage complete6expiries, last quotes Sep4. Four asks<=.08: Sep18 P25 .07,P29/P30/P31 .08; all bid0,size0 and missing IV/Greeks. None has positive displayed exit bid. Raw/adjusted IEX bars1172 each Jan3 2022–Sep4 2026. Snapshot close46.15, high47.01 low45.70, volume102920 IEX only; latest IEX quote39.34/53.58 at20UTC unusable as NBBO. Files research_fro/*. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/FRO?feed=indicative
FRO Conditional vessel-sale special distribution USD = 0.8
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Aug4 issuer: two2017 VLCC sale270m, expected net179m, conditional on completion; Q3 deliveries. Aug28 report says one delivered earlyAug, second expected earlySep. No separately verified completion or distribution date found by Sep7 search; exclude .80 from base cash-dividend schedule; do not infer nonexistent event from search miss. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-sale-of-two-vlccs/
FRO Quarterly dividend per share USD = 2.61
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Issuer Aug28 2026 report p6 retrieved Sep7: Q2 dividend declared, Sep18 record/expected NYSE ex-date, Sep17 Oslo ex-date, payment aboutSep28. Distinct conditional .80 special from vessel sales has no confirmed ex-date in this report. Issuer closest to declaration; earnings promotional, cash dates explicit. Dividend policy page still stops at Q1; omission is stale coverage, not contradiction. Assumed ordinary for model pending OCC-specific confirmation. https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/59431810-8e9c-4a39-b3d0-cc2dd63da402
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