Issuer notice dated 2020-11-19 confirms 2020-12-17 morning results; call is later, not assumed first-news time. Collected Sep7 2026 directly from issuer HTML/PDF via web; issuer controls its schedule and is promotional. Period: listed fiscal quarterly reporting event. Historical backtest candidate; require notice before T-5 entry and valid bars. Multiple copies of notice are one source.
https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2021-Second-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-December-17-2020/
GIS Issuer advance earnings notice for 2020-07-01
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 06:08
Issuer notice dated 2020-06-03 confirms 2020-07-01 morning results; call is later, not assumed first-news time. Collected Sep7 2026 directly from issuer HTML/PDF via web; issuer controls its schedule and is promotional. Period: listed fiscal quarterly reporting event. Historical backtest candidate; require notice before T-5 entry and valid bars. Multiple copies of notice are one source.
https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2020-Fourth-Quarter-Earnings-Conference-Call-on-July-1-2020/default.aspx
EFA Issuer wrapper expense and NAV baseline = 0.32
Quant replication2026-09-07 06:07
CollectedSep7 2026;issuerpageSep4NAV108.09,currentprospectusexpense0.32%annual,management0.31%+other0.01%. Exposuredevelopedlarge/midcapoutsideUS/Canada. Feeapproximately0.0032*10/365=0.00877%over10calendardays,alreadyembeddedinobservedETFprice/NAV;do not deductagain. This iswrapperfundamentalcontext,notvaluationorcurrentarbitrageedge.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239623/ishares-msci-eafe-etf
Full AQR paper qualifies summary rejection by capacity = 9
Quant replication2026-09-07 06:07
ReadSep7 2026,Dec5 2012draft pp3,8,26–28: STR is prior-month crosssectionallonglosers/shortwinners,notRSI2ETFtiming. MainUScapacityabout$9bn/global$13bn; historicalextrapolationUS1926–2011capacity9.4bn,intl1982–2011capacity3.3bn. Thus wording doesnot survive at reasonable size is not zero-capacityclaim; materiallyqualifies summary8002. Differentpopulation/costfunction prevents applying those dollars orwinrates toourcashETFbook. Sameauthorlineage not independentcorroboration.
https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Trading%20Cost%20of%20Asset%20Pricing%20Anomalies%20-%20Frazzini,%20Israel%20and%20Moskowitz.pdf
EGA H1 volumes versus cash and restored cells = 227
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug12issuer:227cellsrestarted asofMondayAug10;H1castmetal1006ktvs1420kt(-29%),sales939ktvs1373kt(-32%);operatingcashAED1484mvs3441m(-57%)despiteEBITDA4506mvs4065m(+11%). AlternativeroutesoutsideHormuzreduceinventory;notabsenceofconstraint. This andAug26areoneoperator,twoobservations,not2independentcorroborations.
https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/
CENX 2025 customer and supplier concentration = 54
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
10KfiledMar3 2026 covers2025. Glencore54%consolidatedsales (59.1%2024,73.8%2023),36.4%yearendownership; buysmetalLME+regional+productpremia,suppliesalumina/rawmaterials andfinancialcontracts. FYpurchases294m includesfinancialsettlements; not pure rawmaterialspend. Coke,pitch,cathodeslimitedsuppliers,nointernalproduction; do not assert one supplier.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm
CENX Q2 primary aluminum realized unit revenue = 5308.806418029273
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug6 actualQ2primaryshipments130632t/revenue693.5m -> USD5308.806/t vsQ1 581.6m/122865=4733.652/t. US95057t/572.3m;Iceland35575t/121.2m. Mix and regionalpremium affect weighted price; not pure LME sensitivity.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX H1 operating cash and capex = 236
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
H1 2026 consolidated CFO236m,capex134.4m -> simpleCFO-capex101.6m; netincome570.8m includes287.9mHawesvillesalegain. CFO includes workingcapital/tax/insurance effects; not normalized runrate or solely attributable cash.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX Restarts and cash caveats = 94.3
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug6 statement: final90MtHollypots restarted, IcelandLine2nearfull, newJamalcoTG4onlineAugust; July45Xrefund94.3m; Julycash>debt issuerclaim. June liquidity784.9m comprises343.4mcash+44.8mrestricted+396.7mborrowingavailability. Not all cash.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX Q2 2026 shipment and earnings baseline = 130632
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Issuer filed Aug6 2026, Q2 endsJune30. Shipments130632t vs122865Q1; net sales752.1m vs649.2m; EBITDA326.9m vs231.4m; guidanceQ3 325–345m. First-party financial disclosure; promotional adjusted metrics and forward guide, not independent source.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
BTC/USD 06:03 Liquid controlled address and reserve checkpoint = 3998.49853728
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:05
Collected Sep7 2026 UTC, closest available venue/exchange/explorer API; single source, not independent corroboration. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 2026-09-07T06:03:59.677053+00:00
source=https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte reserve=bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks
recipient confirmed_btc 3998.49853728 mempool_net_btc 0.0 tx_n 34
reserve confirmed_btc 197.47187814 mempool_net_btc 0.0 tx_n 568
controlled_tx 83825b2135dd0abac12c9dfe17f29ab81b3427e1ae864947b0bebce5e47c3c4b block_time 1788751805 retained_btc 3998.49849036 to_reserve_btc 1e-05
controlled_tx 3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa block_time 1788747618 retained_btc 3998.4984855 to_reserve_btc 1e-05
recent_page_n 25 controlled_n 2 page_is_not_complete_history=1
liquid_tip 4051232 time 1788756550 tx_n 1
Balance movement is not proof of sale/recovery; block production is not restored pegouts. Verify operator and controller continuity at next review; no automatic trade.
https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte
06:04 clock-calibrated funding and open interest = 6
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:05
Collected Sep7 2026 UTC, closest available venue/exchange/explorer API; single source, not independent corroboration. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; failed funding rule remains REJECT
Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest
{"clock_offset_s": 0.0873, "uncertainty_s": 0.1727, "rtt_s": 0.3353}
{"symbol":"BTC","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761060762","local_age_s":17.312,"exchange_age_s":17.399,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":0.465574,"settlement_field_bp":-0.015853,"fundingTime":"1788768000000","settState":"settled"}
{"symbol":"BTC","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761078011","local_age_s":0.079,"exchange_age_s":0.166,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"2650515.70000000671","oi_coin":"26505.1570000000671","oi_usd":"2113510617.11720535052716"}
{"symbol":"ETH","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761060822","local_age_s":17.265,"exchange_age_s":17.352,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":0.501908,"settlement_field_bp":0.664079,"fundingTime":"1788768000000","settState":"settled"}
{"symbol":"ETH","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761078019","local_age_s":0.078,"exchange_age_s":0.165,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"6031256.0700000141","oi_coin":"603125.60700000141","oi_usd":"1510123988.5748135304003"}
{"symbol":"SOL","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761062150","local_age_s":15.939,"exchange_age_s":16.026,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":-0.152569,"settlement_field_bp":0.171939,"fundingTime":"1788768000000","settState":"settled"}
{"symbol":"SOL","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761078011","local_age_s":0.073,"exchange_age_s":0.16,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"2921401.79000000075","oi_coin":"2921401.79000000075","oi_usd":"307126970.1827000788475"}
coverage=6/6 fresh; eligible=0
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate
06:04 full ten-pair quote and capacity snapshot = 7
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:05
Collected Sep7 2026 UTC, closest available venue/exchange/explorer API; single source, not independent corroboration. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; one-venue displayed quotes, not global depth; source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots
BTC t=2026-09-07T06:04:37.21062659Z age=0.1s fresh=1 bid=79767.511 ask=79782.8 bs=0.0009977 as=0.001009 spread_bp=1.917 rt_pct=0.5184
ETH t=2026-09-07T06:04:11.233913727Z age=26.0s fresh=1 bid=2504.668 ask=2505.002 bs=0.033498 as=0.03325 spread_bp=1.333 rt_pct=0.5126
SOL t=2026-09-07T06:03:14.529394253Z age=82.7s fresh=1 bid=105.088 ask=105.197 bs=0.95169 as=0.9573 spread_bp=10.367 rt_pct=0.6025
USDC t=2026-09-07T05:39:08.999510949Z age=1528.3s fresh=0 bid=0.9995 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=5.101 rt_pct=0.5501
USDG t=2026-09-04T04:22:11.909212683Z age=265345.4s fresh=0 bid=0.99999 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=0.200 rt_pct=0.5014
XRP t=2026-09-07T06:03:15.253776028Z age=82.0s fresh=1 bid=1.407 ask=1.41206 bs=4141.5 as=4172.4 spread_bp=35.898 rt_pct=0.8559
UNI t=2026-09-07T06:04:26.93017318Z age=10.3s fresh=1 bid=7.028 ask=7.04201 bs=704.95 as=705.15 spread_bp=19.915 rt_pct=0.6973
LTC t=2026-09-07T06:04:24.127089899Z age=13.1s fresh=1 bid=54.5128 ask=54.822 bs=68.22 as=68.04 spread_bp=56.560 rt_pct=1.0606
USDT t=2026-09-06T17:47:40.244069127Z age=44217.0s fresh=0 bid=0.99927 ask=1.0002 bs=168006.3 as=166115.5 spread_bp=9.302 rt_pct=0.5919
LINK t=2026-09-07T06:04:34.928111176Z age=2.3s fresh=1 bid=13.4902 ask=13.52 bs=1158.334 as=1163.01 spread_bp=22.066 rt_pct=0.7187
fresh_valid=7/10; funding and all trading rules remain independently gated; no orders
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots
Seven completed UTC days top-ten census = 10
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:05
Collected Sep7 2026 UTC, closest available venue/exchange/explorer API; single source, not independent corroboration. RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 published USD inventory, not live Assets; present 36 /36 incomplete7days USDG signals ARB,AVAX,BAT,BONK,CRV,DOT,GRT,HYPE,LDO,LINK,LTC,RENDER,UNI
Source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars 7 completed UTC days; rank includes stablecoins
USDC vol7=$7902141 days=7/7 close=0.999755 prior20=1.000005 signal=0 lastday_zero=0
BTC vol7=$1432384 days=7/7 close=80343.495 prior20=81269.4915 signal=0 lastday_zero=0
ETH vol7=$436151 days=7/7 close=2515.445 prior20=2515.933 signal=0 lastday_zero=0
USDG vol7=$403326 days=3/7 close=1 prior20=None signal=0 lastday_zero=1
XRP vol7=$250072 days=7/7 close=1.423165 prior20=1.51966 signal=0 lastday_zero=0
SOL vol7=$233956 days=7/7 close=106.529 prior20=109.15 signal=0 lastday_zero=0
LINK vol7=$177209 days=7/7 close=13.2346 prior20=12.0527 signal=1 lastday_zero=0
UNI vol7=$159471 days=7/7 close=7.294845 prior20=7.04908 signal=1 lastday_zero=0
LTC vol7=$128682 days=7/7 close=54.95535 prior20=54.72185 signal=1 lastday_zero=0
USDT vol7=$95679 days=7/7 close=0.999735 prior20=1.0003075 signal=0 lastday_zero=0
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
Data pagination and rate-limit audit = 429
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:04
Measured Sep7 06:03-06:04 UTC. 1Hour single-BTC probe returned167 then169 bars (~7 days/page) despite limit10000; tokens advance correctly. Initial combined-symbol 2025-start fetch exhausted local40-page cap and discarded incomplete history. Per-symbol parallel retry hit HTTP429. Adding bounded backoff and pacing; no incomplete series used in analysis. Daily fetch1346BTC/ETH and928SOL including partialSep7, to exclude before testing.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
Indicative feed execution qualification = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-07 06:04
Primary provider documentation accessed Sep7 2026: indicative quotes are derivatives, not actual OPRA quotes; option-chain reference says trades delayed and quotes modified. This is one provider origin, not independent corroboration. Historical OPRA403 is prior journal evidence, not newly retried this run. No current executable-price claim.
https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data
UAMY DLA profit sensitivity, not earnings forecast
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:17
[{"accepted_lb_scenario":82000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":13.34,"gross_profit_usd":1506120,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-5493880},{"accepted_lb_scenario":82000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":20,"gross_profit_usd":960000,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-6040000},{"accepted_lb_scenario":82000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":28,"gross_profit_usd":304000,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-6696000},{"accepted_lb_scenario":163000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":13.34,"gross_profit_usd":2993872.6829268294,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-4006127.3170731706},{"accepted_lb_scenario":163000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":20,"gross_profit_usd":1908292.6829268292,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-5091707.317073171},{"accepted_lb_scenario":163000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":28,"gross_profit_usd":604292.6829268292,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-6395707.317073171},{"accepted_lb_scenario":289000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":13.34,"gross_profit_usd":5308154.634146341,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-1691845.3658536589},{"accepted_lb_scenario":289000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":20,"gross_profit_usd":3383414.6341463416,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-3616585.3658536584},{"accepted_lb_scenario":289000,"cost_assumed_per_lb":28,"gross_profit_usd":1071414.6341463414,"profit_after_existing_7m_operating_deficit":-5928585.365853659}]; assumed same31.7073/lb across cohorts; cost and future acceptance are assumptions. Subtracting existing7m operating deficit holds other business fixed, ignores incremental cash timing and is illustrative.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101538/000110465926094035/uamy-20260630x10q.htm