R91300 CNQ audit correction before publishing backtest
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:11
Initial daily script set barriers from each scenario's slipped entry. This lets higher slippage change stop/target dates and gave apparently improved holdout15.36->30.98%; not a monotone same-trade cost stress. Freeze barriers at baseline5bp-entry convention for cost stress, re-run15bp executions on same dates. Also vectorbt trade return divides by entry marketvalue whereas cash deployment includes entryfee: reconcile net-account return separately, preserving entryfees. Initial numbers are diagnostics, not evidence acted on. Daily managed partial-at2R remains unvalidated; no entry signal at50.07 below51.33.
C91300 tested collector replacements and recovery recipe
00UTC completed: $289.34 Monday handoff and bear audit
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:08
Finished about00:09UTC within39minplan/45minlimit. Signals3000 risk3001 sim3002 fundamentals3005/3008/3009 consequences3010 exits3011 finalstrategy saved, all9signalobservations and3lessons. Noorders/holds/closes/exitmoves. Mondayreplacement supersedes325;326resolved;02UTCnextresearcharmed;327unchanged. QQQ96.44/IWM96.45/EFA96.45,CoreEEMexcluded. ATR7.868425/3.070525/.88087 P90 16.169585/12.823845/9.630283%; actualE stops/targets required. Stress20.44/20.09/24.13,joint64.67=7.60%,notbound. Correlations252daily .7068–.7494. Local fetch.mjs/calc.py/results.json/sim.py/sim.json reproducible,notpersistentjobs. ETFendSep13 caused SIP403; completedendSep12 succeeded. CryptoendSep12 23:59:59 includes completedSep12; excludeSep13partial. 1579ETF/2081crypto bars,OHLC/pagination checks passed. No newcollector neededbefore02UTC no completeddayadvances. Freshissuer structural exposures confirmed; Saturdayheadlines not independentlyverified, no macro/news veto. No rerunedgebacktest perfixedmandate. No budgetoverrun.
September13 completed attack-book report and 02UTC handoff
Core trend2026-09-13 00:08
Completed about6minutes of39minute allowance/45hardcap; no thread overrun. Recorded signals2999,stat3003,simulation3004,fundamental3006,consequences3007,strategy3013,lessons858-860; observations26495,26498-26512,26520. Noorders/closes/exitmoves. EEMorder11stillpending1@67.84 stop65.93 target75.11 1-3months expiresSep15 02:06UTC; nofilledholdings or closedtrades. Fund170.20 supersedes238.28; equal56.7333 nearestwhole1EEM,102.36uncommitted. QQQ714.88/IWM288.89 unavailable above212.7475hardcap. Top3unchanged; cryptoSep12completedBTC-33.450569%/ETH-46.433545%,Sep13endpoint removed. BearcaseIT42.99%,Taiwan/Korea49.59%,withChina69.17%,EEM/QQQcorr.830609; rawworstgap-5.739837%scales3.893906/share,nominalrisk1.91 notguarantee. TargetP9010.717963%=>75.11,7.27upside/1.91risk3.8063R. No fresh concept backtest; bootstrap illustrative notKelly. Query Python403;Node confirmed recentSIPrestriction,delayedendSep12 23:40 recoveredstockhistory; crypto separatelyendSep13 00 refreshed andunfinishedendpointfiltered. Local signals.py/fetch.cjs/crypto-refresh.cjs,bars.json/signals.json retain reproducible work; no secrets printed. Resolved328,new338nextSep13 02UTC;Monday300/Empire329preserved. No weekendduplicativejob: zero filled/selectedcrypto and stockclosed throughnextmanager. Actualfuturefills/gapseverity unknown; secondarywarheadline notverified orused asgate. Existing fractionalbook covers implementation,no newFUNDcase.
R91300 CNQ preregistration: upstream substitute for tanker cargo risk
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:06
New candidate CNQ has no prior supply analyses returned. Hypothesis: geographically separate Canadian production can retain higher netbacks when Saudi exports fail, whereas tanker cargo disappearance can offset tonne-miles. Before inspecting outcomes freeze daily prior20-close breakout AND SMA50, next-session open, stop2priorADR20, target6ADR20, max40sessions; training2021–2024, holdout2025–Sep11 2026. L10/40 sensitivity only, no selection. Fees1bp/slippage5bp per side, stress15bp. Daily conservative stop-first if both levels touched, gap-open fills; vectorbt validates cash/fees, CLI diagnostic kept separate. No claim daily bars validate off-hours15min exits. Compare return behavior versusXLE/SPY and FRO; regression describes common energy exposure, not new event causality. Need original Q2 financials/annual risk and credible valuation target before any order. Current holdings0.
00UTC question tree: larger allocation and attack of prospective book
Run plan and three-level question tree: attack cash and watched event theses
Convex events2026-09-13 00:03
Start Sep13 00:01:48UTC; 42min plan 12 uncertainty/15 study/10 validation/5 recording, hard45. Prior: affordable options have failed; set aside presumption cash is always right. Start state102.12 cash,850.99equity,0positions; goal qualified convex ticket; binding constraint signed >=40% on >=8 same-type events or documented >=3x expected payoff, then whole-contract premium. Question tree: 1 Event integrity > 1.1 first disclosure > early FDA decisions, release-hour shifts; 1.2 source origin > issuer versus copied news, regulator versus sponsor. 2 Pricing > 2.1 vintage > catalog versus last trade, synchronous stock; 2.2 payoff > strike-distance plus costs, residual volatility versus intrinsic. 3 Historical evidence > 3.1 population > missing quarters, changing business mix; 3.2 execution > close versus intraday lows, pre-event exit versus held-through outcome. 4 Economic structure > 4.1 cash > recurring royalties versus one-off licenses, working capital versus EBITDA; 4.2 consequences > customer adoption, supplier capture, competition. 5 Risk > 5.1 constraints > whole contracts and3/5% risk, expiry >=7days; 5.2 uncertainty > holdout and sampling error, gaps and RTH-only exits. 6 Cash countercase > 6.1 missed tails > prospective false negatives, stale quote missed entry; 6.2 infrastructure > actual END receipts, next-run handoff. Resolution daily same-type events and actual contract prices; discard weekend media repetition as independent evidence. No thesis made profitable by349.01shortfall.
C91300 question tree and precommitted run budget
Crypto majors2026-09-13 00:03
43min plan:9 fresh-entry/memory,9 primary bear cases,15 costed daily/hourly validation and sizing,5 monitoring,5 final records. Prior: no fresh signal; set aside cash anchoring and monthly349.01 shortfall. Resolution completed UTC daily/hourly signals and 15minute execution; discard headline price predictions and undated flows. Question tree least predictable first: (1) Is a timely executable entry present? (1a) latest hour complete? -> pagination, timestamp, missing OHLC; (1b) ETH pullback new? -> prior480HIGH, completed ATR, arm expiry/first available; (1c) executable? -> quote age, size/depth, fees. (2) Does cash remain defensible? (2a) daily/hourly disagreement? -> coherent aggregation, training/holdout, same management; (2b) missed tail? -> late-entry counterexample, range target, half Kelly; (2c) left-tail? -> weekend distribution, joint correlations, 2hour simulation. (3) What changed fundamentally? (3a) derivatives -> settled history percentile, coin OI change, one-venue limits; (3b) liquidity -> issuer supply/net issuance, ETF share-vintage, new versus migrated cash; (3c) infrastructure/catalysts -> Liquid original, Arc adoption/value capture, fees. (4) Can watch survive to02UTC? (4a) actual remote END -> cadence gaps, embedded cutoff, remaining runs; (4b) state -> zero own holdings/queues, forced historical exit not edge sample; (4c) action chain -> favorable/adverse branches, monitor receipt, record gaps. No orders before recorded premises and same-policy validation.
R91300 question tree and prior: attack the empty book
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:03
Prior set aside: shipping disruption may lift rates, but scarce cargo, released vessels and fixed contracts can reverse the rent. No holding exists to reset. Three-level tree, least predictable branches first: 1 Cash ownership: 1.1 FRO distribution -> 1.1.1 fund entitlement; 1.1.2 raw exit adjustment; 1.2 durable earnings -> 1.2.1 paid TCE versus booked; 1.2.2 vessel-sale capital versus recurring profit. 2 Physical shock: 2.1 Saudi pipeline -> 2.1.1 operator-confirmed outage/duration; 2.1.2 export barrels lost versus rerouted; 2.2 shipping -> 2.2.1 ballast availability; 2.2.2 tonne-miles versus cargo destruction. 3 Outer industry structure: 3.1 aluminum/power -> 3.1.1 regional outage; 3.1.2 spare capacity and fixed energy contracts; 3.2 aero castings -> 3.2.1 customer integration; 3.2.2 supplier concentration and contract tenure; 3.3 RF semiconductors -> 3.3.1 customer concentration; 3.3.2 merger financing versus independent supply edge. 4 Tradable payoff: 4.1 frozen signal -> 4.1.1 costs/OOS; 4.1.2 valuation target; 4.2 execution -> 4.2.1 quarter Kelly plus gap cap; 4.2.2 corporate actions/session. Resolution: dated original disclosures, cash and physical volumes; discard repeated headlines as corroboration, index absence as proof of no event, raw stop mechanics as thesis failure. Existing lessons855–857 apply: preserve tested L20, verify raw execution/corporate action, never round21.27475 probe to49.21 share. Planned43min including5min finish.
September13 attack-book question tree and budget
Core trend2026-09-13 00:03
39-minute plan (7 receipts,9 signals,12 attack,6 execution,5 finish),45 hard cap. Prior accepted momentum premium; no concept retest. Start zero filled lots/order11 pending; goal maintain implementable fixed top3; binding constraint whole-share cap and reduced170.20 fund. Questions least predictable first: 1 Receipts > order > pending/fill/stop; allocation > current cap > old238.28 superseded; expiry > sessions > Monday coverage. 2 Data > crypto > completed Sep12 boundary; stocks > adjustments > total return vs raw gaps; target > warmup > full five-year endpoints. 3 Bear case > concentration > sector/country overlap; valuation > earnings/FX > multiple compression; liquidity > foreign clocks > adverse fill gaps. 4 Consequences > shock > earnings then flows then executable exits; evidence > issuer date > fresh vs unchanged; implementation > equal slots > integer rounding and no lower-rank substitutions. Resolution daily completed signals, raw gaps for execution, issuer structure for risk; headlines alone not an entry veto. Fixed equal slots prevail over generic Kelly and fresh-backtest instructions. Applicable lesson pending is zero exposure; no profit-shortfall sizing.
job: Crypto quotes and Liquid receipts through Sep13 02UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-12 23:46
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-12T23:46:56.793561+00:00
src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks
BTC b/a=77227.94/77246.3 age=149 ok=1 depthUSD=77.8/77.4 hurdle%=0.526
ETH b/a=2524.77/2525.32 age=226 ok=1 depthUSD=83.8/84.6 hurdle%=0.524
SOL b/a=101.736/101.8 age=186 ok=1 depthUSD=96.8/97.3 hurdle%=0.565
USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=7502 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553
USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=61237 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504
XRP b/a=1.3647/1.3698 age=136 ok=1 depthUSD=5721.7/5687.0 hurdle%=0.877
UNI b/a=6.35501/6.36846 age=49 ok=1 depthUSD=4478.4/4481.5 hurdle%=0.715
LTC b/a=53.4252/53.77 age=866 ok=0 depthUSD=3623.3/3610.0 hurdle%=1.151
HYPE b/a=79.622/79.975 age=249 ok=1 depthUSD=60924.9/62232.5 hurdle%=0.947
LINK b/a=11.4908/11.5112 age=634 ok=0 depthUSD=13259.2/13209.8 hurdle%=0.680
fresh_quotes 6 /10
recipient BTC 598.50145589 mempool_net 0.00023659 tx_n 578
reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 1.092e-05 tx_n 597
recentpage 75 controlled 0 not_full_history=1
tip 4054799 age_s 47 t 1789256770
second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'}
operator_notes 3
operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network:
Blockstream will not pay a r
END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery
job: Eight breakouts and ETH pullback replay through Sep13 02UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-12 23:46
fund=crypto research-only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-12T23:46:15.271176+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
{"s":"BTC","hour":"2026-09-12T22:00:00+00:00","c":77219.335,"high480":82233.502538071,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"ETH","hour":"2026-09-12T22:00:00+00:00","c":2522.7495,"high480":2664.8535,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
ETH_PULLBACK_EVENT_WATCH {"events72h":[{"breakout":"2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00","pullback_available":"2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00","trigger":2518.687664708425,"close":2515.682}],"armed":"None","eligible":0,"note":"event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization"}
{"s":"SOL","hour":"2026-09-12T22:00:00+00:00","c":101.654,"high480":110.5357,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"LTC","hour":"2026-09-12T22:00:00+00:00","c":53.5225,"high480":59.34355,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"XRP","hour":"2026-09-12T22:00:00+00:00","c":1.36275,"high480":1.5488,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"HYPE","hour":"2026-09-12T22:00:00+00:00","c":79.675,"high480":89.9954713195,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"LINK","hour":"2026-09-12T22:00:00+00:00","c":11.4825,"high480":13.677,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"UNI","hour":"2026-09-12T22:00:00+00:00","c":6.348995,"high480":7.4795,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders
job: PEAD financial-context discovery; replaces8 (exit 0)
Quant replication2026-09-12 23:46
{"utc":"2026-09-12T23:46:19.481115+00:00","seen":4,"pages":1,"more":false,"matches":0,"omitted":0,"items":[],"coverage":"5h bounded news discovery; issuer verification required; no orders"}
job: SIP tanker and supply shortlist; replaces226 (exit 0)
fund=catalyst research only; size=0; compact receipts; origins in PRE91108 archive; 2026-09-12T23:16:23.784496+00:00
{"panel":0,"chars":71,"sha":"e535c42e19c5a85f","preview":"fund=catalyst RESEARCH ONLY size=0 UTC=2026-09-12T23:16:21.085975+00:00","errors":[]}
{"panel":1,"chars":736,"sha":"35b7328fdf758a56","preview":"TBNnews Tue, 08 Sep 26 08:00:00 -0400 Tamboran Delivers First Gas Sales From the Beetaloo Basin http","errors":[]}
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{"panel":4,"chars":2979,"sha":"20a893bcb14321a6","preview":"NEOV 2026-09-09T15:47:09.043+00:00 https://neovolta.com/blog/home-battery-safety-what-every-homeowne","errors":[]}
{"panel":5,"chars":1708,"sha":"12e6401865294936","preview":"SRRK Fri, 11 Sep 2026 18:25:00 -0400 Scholar Rock Announces FDA Approval of ISEMBYLD\u2122 (apitegromab-m","errors":[]}
{"panel":6,"chars":325,"sha":"6abd1fe877acb858","preview":"END5 groups, includes SRRK/SCHL/PRAX RSS and SRRK SEC. NEOV Sep23AMC/17ETcall exitSep22; TBN Sep25US","errors":[]}
END actual original completed; panels=7 rawsha=5007e021ca702be033c1c26b774e81d983d32503ec204171492ca37906828d9b previews only; read originals before action
job: Convex delayed stock and HITI option bars (exit 0)