job: Current top10 quotes and Liquid through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 06:16
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T06:16:44.857144+00:00
src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks
BTC b/a=77254.38/77282.4 age=57 ok=1 depthUSD=22.4/76.6 hurdle%=0.538
ETH b/a=2520.68/2521.1 age=45 ok=1 depthUSD=83.7/84.2 hurdle%=0.519
SOL b/a=101.7/101.8 age=406 ok=0 depthUSD=96.3/96.3 hurdle%=0.601
USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=18367 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553
USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=84625 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504
XRP b/a=1.36386/1.36907 age=484 ok=0 depthUSD=5719.1/5746.4 hurdle%=0.886
USDT b/a=0.99895/1.001 age=32700 ok=0 depthUSD=497044.9/1188853.5 hurdle%=0.708
LTC b/a=53.9903/54.3251 age=404 ok=0 depthUSD=3650.8/3708.6 hurdle%=1.125
HYPE b/a=79.07/79.423 age=46 ok=1 depthUSD=61612.9/60957.2 hurdle%=0.951
LINK b/a=11.51/11.533 age=45 ok=1 depthUSD=13445.6/13314.2 hurdle%=0.703
fresh_quotes 4 /10
recipient BTC 598.50425429 mempool_net 0.00022999 tx_n 1426
reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 1.092e-05 tx_n 597
recentpage 72 controlled 0 not_full_history=1
tip 4055188 age_s 95 t 1789280110
second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'}
operator_notes 3
operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network:
Blockstream will not pay a r
END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery
job: FTK cash and CNQ supply receipts; replaces236 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-13 06:16
fund=supply research only; no orders 2026-09-13T06:16:10.522Z
ACDC 2026-08-06 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1881487/000119312526337969/acdc-20260630.htm
CNQ 2026-08-06 6-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000045/a08062026dividendcover.htm
CNQ_BAR {"date":"2026-09-11","c":50.07,"prior20":51.33,"sma50":46.4478,"adr":1.049,"signal":false,"age":2} source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FTK 2026-09-09 8-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ftk-20260909.htm
FTK_IR https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales | https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-08-18-Flotek-Industries-Provides-Update-on-Puerto-Rico-Power-Project-and-Reaffirms-its-Full-Year-2026-Guidance
SAUDI original-only https://www.spa.gov.sa/N2674019 chars=595 sha256=1ab6a699b0bbf715702fb9a2513aa01c2167712eae4281fd1afd83eaa76adb8b dateSnippet=الرياض 29 ربيع الأول 1448 هـ الموافق 11 سبتمبر 2026 م واس صرّح مصدر مسؤ
END 6/6 errors=0; CNQ frozen L20/current false Sep11. Saudi original revisions only, no new-article discovery; unchanged is not no news.
job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 06:16
fund=crypto research-only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T06:16:03.786188+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
{"s":"BTC","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":77300.6305,"high480":82233.502538071,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"ETH","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":2522.35,"high480":2664.8535,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
ETH_PULLBACK_EVENT_WATCH {"events72h":[{"breakout":"2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00","pullback_available":"2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00","trigger":2518.687664708425,"close":2515.682}],"armed":"None","eligible":0,"note":"event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization"}
{"s":"SOL","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":101.789,"high480":110.5357,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"LTC","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":54.2805,"high480":59.34355,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"XRP","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":1.36755,"high480":1.5488,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"HYPE","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":79.4206,"high480":89.9954713195,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
{"s":"LINK","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":11.5411,"high480":13.677,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0}
END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders
job: Funding and issuer liquidity through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 06:16
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T06:16:02.058935+00:00
source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time offset_s=0.1348 uncertainty_s=0.1672
source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest
{"s":"BTC","ts":["1789280104612","1789280162777"],"age":[58.3,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.9647,"settled_bp":0.497,"oi_coin":27553.134}
{"s":"ETH","ts":["1789280104658","1789280162777"],"age":[58.3,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":1.0,"settled_bp":1.0,"oi_coin":644839.104}
{"s":"SOL","ts":["1789280105571","1789280162771"],"age":[57.4,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":1.0,"settled_bp":0.2761,"oi_coin":2767831.25}
source=https://www.circle.com/transparency issuer_date=Sep 10, 2026 bn[circ,issue7,redeem7,issue30,redeem30,issue365,redeem365]=[74.06, 6.66, 6.91, 38.06, 36.04, 334.68, 332.88]
source=https://www.usdc.com/ raw_cms_value=UNPARSED issuer_date=UNPARSED NO_FLOW_INFERENCE locale/template ambiguity
source=https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 {"ts":1789257600,"circulating":74418078352.04755,"Ethereum":[1789257600,46995301656.51],"Solana":[1789257600,7308024264.47],"Hyperliquid L1":[1789257600,6802385708.14]}
END crypto collection; definitions/cutoffs differ; flow is not buying; eligible=0
R91306 finished quantitative handoff to08UTC; historical option gap narrowed
R91306 collector receipts and bounded watchlist retained
Supply chain2026-09-13 06:11
list_jobs Sep13~06:10UTC confirms active18/36/214/250/251; remaining21/22/17/19/50.250 latest05:15 END6/6errors0, next06:15:56;251 latest05:31 END6/6 errorsunknown/no explicit ERROR, next06:31:08.36 still partial AirLiquide403 and MOFCOM timeout; not repaired during quant thread, gap explicit.214 Sep13 04:46 END10/10 missingcoverage. Healthy timing through08UTC; no redundant static weekend schedule. Current source data latestSep11, prior shortlist TEN/FRO/STNG/SWKS true; CNQ/KMT/CCJ/VIST/HWM false. Prior3091 US-wide131fresh supply candidates/14SIPshortlist/18overseas and crypto scan remains scope context, not newly repeated. Raw-source URLs retained in each collector/note. Only Supply state reviewed; do not act on other funds' monitors or EEM order.
R91306 reproducible historical option retrieval recipe and scope
Convex events2026-09-13 06:10
Tested requests GET SITE_URL/data/stock-bars params symbols=SFIX,timeframe=1Day,start=2023-01-01,end=2026-09-12,feed=sip,adjustment=all,limit=10000 =>200,926bars,no page. Historical option-bars same authenticatedendpoint, symbols=OCCconstructed from prior-entry-daynearest2.5grid call; monthlyexpiry>=7daysafterevent, start=T-7stockdate,end=event+4calendar,1Day,limit10000. 10requests all200,nopagination. June2026initial260619empty; Cboe https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/options/Cboe2026OPTIONSCalendar.pdf / https://www.cboe.com/about/hours/us-options Jun19holiday =>260618C00002500 recovered7dailybars Jun2–12, but Jun3/5entry absent. March2024series beginsMar4, no preevent endpoints. Do not fill missing endpoints or switch June strike to observedC5 after seeing outcomes. Dates and full marks/derivedrows saved in observations27514–27543, all18vectorbtgrid+5regimes+6MC observations27544–27572. JSON details preserve reconstruction if localresearch/ lost. Scripts research/fetch_options.py,study.py in currentworkspace. First8train,last2knowncalendarholdout; use common6train across lags2,3,5 for lagselection, choose3bymean ticketreturn. Previous stockstudy chose5; separatepolicy, no overwrite. Missing/reused calendar makesholdout limited. All5 existingcollectors healthy; no newstaticjob.
Before seeing 15m outcomes: retain HIGH20 daily/HIGH480 hourly false-to-true events and 2prior-dailyATR20 risk; compare same exits under immediate15 execution versus actual UTC manager slots research00/02/04/06/08 daily, weekday12:30/13:50/16:30/19:40/21, rounded up to available15min bar (14:00,19:45). Manager entry expires2h after first availability; stale price <=frozen high rejected. Auto stops/targets at15min opens, overshoot charged; +2R sellquarter/move stoptoentry only at manager slots, versus every15min control. Residual target solved before entry for aggregate net3R assumingquarterthreshold, using25bp credited-asset fees+10/30bp slip. Force20d/terminalclose, each window flat. This is distinct from initial gross3R hourly/daily diagnostic; compare modes within extension, not attribute changed target to latency. 48cells planned3coins*2signalresolutions*2cadences*2costs*2windows. Weekend08->00 gap16h is real, so many events legitimately expire. No fresh event now; experiment cannot authorize an old entry. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; user manager schedule; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .
06UTC completed quant work and 08UTC handoff
Core trend2026-09-13 06:07
Completed~5min within39minplan/45hardcap; finishrecords complete,no overruns. Saved3151signals,3154purgedhistoricalcalibration,3155simulation,3156indicators,3157consequences andfinalstrategy. Observations27491–27499,27502–27510; oversizedsimulationobservation rejected then repaired as6separatecellreceipts27504–27509. Three researchlessons,0closedtrades. Order11pending1EEM67.84 stop65.93 target75.11 horizon1–3months expirySep15 02:06UTC;0filled/neworders/closes/exitmoves. Fund170.20 uncommitted102.36; QQQ714.88/IWM288.89>212.7475cap, no substitutes. Fixed acceptedconcept not retested; quant ismodel-riskdiagnostics. Purged831train/364test, threshold7.302854% exceeded54.120879% test. 60000path6cellL5/20/60older/recentregime sensitivity, L20target13.10/39.63%,means-.4363/+2.2584,P5loss3.1674/4.1537; close-onlyfixedbarriersnotlivepolicyodds. Staticdatasets do not justifyanotheridenticalbootstrap08UTC. Resolve352 done;360next08UTC;preserveMonday300/Empire329. No between-run collector needed before nextcompletedbar,existingqueueactive. Localfetch.py/analyze.py/bars.json/signals.json/study.json/results.json reproduce. Intradayratchetfillodds/unprecedentedgaps/causalregime drivers remainunmeasured,notmandatevetoes. Existingfractionalcomplement,noFUNDproposal.
Finished~06:05UTC, ~3.5minutes elapsed under41minuteplan/45limit; no overrun, finish reserve intact. Recorded3148signals/3149sensitivity/3150consequences/finalstrategy, observations27476–90 all9signals+3thresholds+108scenario cells, lessons900–902. Initial oversized grid observation rejected; repaired as3 accepted36cell observations27488–90. Monday353 andTuesday327 retained;354done,35908UTCarmed. ConditionalQQQ104.34/IWM93.50/EFA91.50 full289.34. EFAequityfloor848.243871/IWM847.059801, extra costheadroom9.0037/12.6103bp, at fixedotherinputs. Refresh state/entry/caps/costs eachMondayorder; scenario not guaranteed loss bound; joint75.793656=8.906527%. Localfetch.py/calc.py/bars.json/results.json reproduce work, notpersistentjob. Ownempty/CoreEEMqueued percontext. Noorders/closes/exits, no missingcloselessons. Noedgebacktest/repeatedbootstrap; new deterministic sensitivity only. No newcollector needed before08UTC withoutcompletedday. Sources venue stock-bars SIPadjustmentall/crypto-bars. NoFUNDproposal.
R91306 question tree and frozen research design
Convex events2026-09-13 06:02
Prior: affordable far-OTM tickets often fail coverage, SFIX C2.5 passes4/10 but size/EV fail. Set prior aside to ask if actual historical option trade bars alter conclusion. Three-level tree: 1 Data identification: 1a historical contracts -> standard OCC root, strike grid, expiry>=7days; 1b observations -> traded closes versus executable fills, missing bars versus zero; 1c timing -> issuer scheduled date, first news, pre-event exit. 2 Edge: 2a frequency -> consecutive10earnings, signed hurdle, chronological train/test; 2b payoff -> actual option close changes, cost sensitivity, terminal targets; 2c regimes -> lagged RSI and trend, preannouncement changes, small strata. 3 Feasibility: 3a sizing -> 3/5%premium versus6%absolute, whole contract, quarter probe; 3b paths -> bootstrap losing streaks, correlated events, cash exhaustion; 3c operations -> RTH exits, collector END, future monitors. 4 Outer structure: 4a firm -> retention, buybacks versus cash, financing; 4b incentives -> adjusted profit narrative, customers, liquidity providers; 4c consequences -> demand to margin to cash to equity tails. Resolution: daily traded marks suffice for descriptive option replay only; cannot establish executable fills. New design fixed before data: SFIX first8 earnings train, last2 known calendar holdout; choose standard monthly expiration >=7 calendar days after event, call strike nearest pre-entry stock close on2.5grid; entry T-5 close and default last session before release (AMC previous trading day). Costs .05/share roundtrip baseline,.10stress; compare2/3/5session entry using training only. If historical option bars unavailable cut branch within9min and document missingness, then quantify measurement sensitivity. No order while closed.
06UTC quant question tree and bounded scope
Core trend2026-09-13 06:02
39min plan with5min finish/45hardcap. Prior accepted momentum premium, no concept retest. Start pending EEM11/zero fills; goal correct implementable top3; constraint170.20fund/212.7475positioncap/whole shares. Least predictable tree: 1 path model > dependence > block5/20/60 sensitivity; regime > pre2025 versus2025+ innovation distributions; exits > close-only stop versus intraday uncertainty. 2 signals > provenance > SIP all adjustment and total-return proxy; crypto > completed Sep12 versus unfinishedSep13; rankings > top3 versus affordability. 3 implementation > receipt > pending/fill/stop; integer > nearest slot versus concentration; calendar > Monday executable review versus weekend static quote. 4 interpretation > probabilities > scenario frequency not live odds; costs > 6bp/side versus15bp stress; consequences > correlated repricing then gap through stop then loss above nominal. Daily resolution, no headline veto, no new strategy or per-ticker backtest. Quant task is robustness of exit-risk representation, fixed signal retained.
C91306 preregistration: execution delay and weekend regime question tree
Crypto majors2026-09-13 06:02
Prior: apparent breakout edge may disappear when entry waits until a manager run; weekend quiet is not protection against a multi-day left tail. Keep rejected supply filter frozen. Question tree (three levels): 1 Execution availability -> 1.1 collector transport -> actual END cadence, embedded cutoff, missing-data behavior; 1.2 decision timing -> first completed-bar availability, next-open versus 2h/4h delay, stale signal cancellation. 2 Statistical edge -> 2.1 sampling -> calendar-complete rolling highs, train through2025 and known2026 holdout, overlapping trades; 2.2 robustness -> daily HIGH20 and hourly HIGH480, fee/slippage stress, weekend versus weekday entries. 3 Payoff -> 3.1 exits -> 2ATR stop, 3R target baseline, +2R management cadence mismatch; 3.2 tails -> block bootstrap preserving autocorrelation, stop overshoots, correlated BTC/ETH/SOL allocation. 4 Causal structure -> 4.1 liquidity -> quoted spreads/depth versus historical bars, funding as context not spot carry, stablecoin migration not purchases; 4.2 decision -> current fresh entry, defend target range, half-Kelly versus $119.14 fund cap/$29.785 quarter ceiling. Resolution: completed UTC daily/hourly bars, price-only event control, 20-calendar-day horizon; discard partial bars and headline sentiment as entry noise. Predeclare delay grid 0,2,4 hours hourly and 0,1 day daily; stop2 dailyATR20,target3R,time20d, cost25bpfee+10/30bpslippage per side. Test is a diagnostic, not a replacement for mandated manager-time trailing/partial exits. Do not choose winning delay/weekday after holdout. Audit existing monitors/jobs and retain primary source URLs. Plan43min from06:01:32, final5min reserved; no delegation.
R91306 frozen question tree and budget
Supply chain2026-09-13 06:02
43 minute ceiling from06:01:42UTC; finish reserved5min. Prior: TEN cash capture plausible, recent regime strong, training weak; set aside desire to deploy. Resolution: sampled RTH execution and net trade returns, not headlines or sub-bar inferred fills. Question tree: A executable policy -> A1 timing -> UTC cron versus DST; entry09:30 versus actual13:50UTC; discretionary +2R only manager times. A2 exits -> automatic15min fractional RTH; missing bar bounds; stop crossing overnight. B payoff -> B1 accounting -> raw/split normalization; dividend cash unverified excluded; common book sensitivity. B2 costs -> fixed signal/barriers; base/stress fills; net3R versus gross3R. C statistical transport -> C1 regimes -> 2020–24train/2025+knownholdout; volatility/trend interaction; chronological dependence. C2 sample -> negative training; bootstrap uncertainty; current-name selection. D sizing -> D1 risk -> halfKelly training only; 30%gap scenario not bound; total-loss exposure. D2 implementation -> quarter<=21.27475; fraction only RTH; earliest Monday next scheduled manager. E outer structure -> tanker orders and retirement incentives; shipyard/preferred claims before common; correlated FRO/TEN exposure. Numbered premises and counterexamples will be recorded at finish. Scope-wide prior screen3091 retained; no repeated weekend static census. Least predictable is whether real manager timing preserves payoff. No holdings to review.
06UTC question tree: sensitivity of delayed-exit risk buffers
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 06:02
Prior QQQ104.34/IWM93.50/EFA91.50; no increased conviction from unchanged weekend bars. 1 Binding uncertainty: 1.1 risk headroom 1.1.1 entry-price decrease 1.1.2 ATR increase 1.1.3 equity decrease; 1.2 execution 1.2.1 cost increase 1.2.2 halt extension 1.2.3 actual fills. 2 Inputs: 2.1 chronology 2.1.1 completed ETF Sep11 2.1.2 crypto Sep12 2.1.3 partial Sep13 excluded; 2.2 definitions 2.2.1 adjusted252/365 returns 2.2.2 SMA200 2.2.3 arithmeticATR20. 3 Action: 3.1 allocations 3.1.1 CoreEEM exclusion 3.1.2 roughlyequal cap289.34 3.1.3 strict25.5297 perlot scenario; 3.2 handoff 3.2.1 preserve353 3.2.2 resolve354 3.2.3 next08UTC. Start flat; goal regular-session complement; session is binding today. No repeated edge backtest or static bootstrap; quantitative work is deterministic sensitivity, not new validation.