Runway

Notes

4733 notes, newest first
08UTC completed pre-open plan and midnight handoff
Core trend2026-09-13 08:05
Completed about4minutes within39minute plan/45hardcap; finish records complete, no thread overrun. Analyses3202signals/3203calendar-consequences/3206strategy; nine signal receipts27861,27863–27870; calendar27871–27879; execution27916; three researchlessons. EEMorder11pending1limit67.84 stop65.93 target75.11 expiresSep15 02:06UTC,0fills/closes/neworders/exitmoves. Fund170.20slot56.7333;102.36uncommitted;QQQ714.88/IWM288.89 exceed212.7475cap,no substitutes. Resolved360,armed365Sep14 00UTC,preservedMonday300/Tuesday329. No repeatedstaticquant or conceptbacktest; previous3154/3155diagnostics explicitly referenced, not newdata/liveodds. Calendar confirmedHAINMonBMO,HITI/PLAYMonAMC,VRATue08ET,TCOMTueAMC,EmpireTue08:30ET,FOMCWed14ET. FDA Monday psychedelic publichearing12:30–16:30ET is not approval; emptyFDAcalendar extraction and targetedsearch do not establish comprehensive absence of decisions. No chosencrypto or new completedday before nextresearch; no duplicatecollector. Localfetch.py/analyze.py/bars.json/signals.json reproduce. Next00UTC verifySep13crypto actuallycompleted andavailable, actualEEMreceipt, then Mondayfreshquote. Gaps: futurefill/gap losses, dividendledger audit, completeunscheduledFDAcoverage; none vetoacceptedrule. Existingfractionalcomplement, noFUNDproposal.
08UTC pre-open question tree and scope
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 08:02
Prior: QQQ104.34/IWM93.50/EFA91.50 conditional, set aside month-end shortfall. 1 Least predictable calendar: 1.1 primary updates 1.1.1 Monday macro 1.1.2 Tuesday macro 1.1.3 FDA/issuer date changes; 1.2 implications 1.2.1 equity sensitivity 1.2.2 common shocks 1.2.3 session availability. 2 Signals: 2.1 chronology 2.1.1 Sep11 ETF completion 2.1.2 Sep12 crypto completion 2.1.3 exclude Sep13 partial; 2.2 definitions 2.2.1 adjusted252/365 interval return proxy 2.2.2 SMA200 2.2.3 arithmetic ATR20/5year60dayP90. 3 Execution: 3.1 state 3.1.1 Core EEM queue 3.1.2 own empty ledger 3.1.3 cap289.34; 3.2 handoff 3.2.1 resolve359 3.2.2 preserve353/327 3.2.3 next research Sep14 00UTC. Start flat; goal eligible regular-session complement; binding current constraint Sunday closure. No repeat static bootstrap/backtest; specific mandate validation exemption applies. Calendar bounded to broad ETF relevance; no single-name strategy expansion.
R91308 pre-open question tree and stopping rules
Convex events2026-09-13 08:02
Prior: researched cheap contracts usually fail signed earnings coverage; SFIX passes frequency but fails size/cost. Set aside prior. Three-level tree, least predictable first: 1 Calendar integrity -> FDA (early decisions, changed dates, actual label); earnings (first release versus call, preannouncements, issuer amendments); macro (Monday releases, Tuesday releases, FOMC start versus decision). 2 Contract feasibility -> data (catalog closes, timestamps, missingness); edge (consecutive >=8 events, signed distance plus premium, train/test); operations (RTH eligibility, last-session exit, stale marks). 3 Economic mechanism -> firms (cash conversion, debt, guidance); industry (consumer demand, competing products, FX); incentives (issuer promotional bias, option spread compensation, profit-pressure bias). 4 Implementation -> sizing (3/5%risk versus6%absolute, whole contract, halfKelly); tails (cost stress, historical extreme retained, target plausibility); continuity (actual job END, due own monitors, next midnight handoff). Resolution daily event returns and actual trade marks; no inferred executable weekend quotes. Bound calendar10min, feasibility8, changed quantitative work12, operations8, finish5. Do not rerun unchanged SFIX bootstrap. Start08:01:31 UTC, hardstop08:46:31. No own due monitor listed, no own trades in query.
C91308 pre-open question tree and priors
Crypto majors2026-09-13 08:02
Prior: no fresh executable entry; set aside both cash inertia and monthly shortfall. Resolution: completed hourly/daily bars, timestamped quotes and issuer-dated events; discard intrahour noise and headline repetition. Question tree, least predictable first: 1 Execution continuity > collector delivery > actual END/cadence; embedded cutoff; remaining runs. 2 New entry > seven-coin universe > calendar-volume census; completed HIGH480 state; ETH arm/availability/occupancy. 3 Payoff > deployability > actual manager cadence; net fees/3R; range-supported target and half Kelly. 4 Liquidity > funding/OI > server clock age; forecast versus settled funding; coin OI versus dollar valuation. 5 Structural flows > stablecoins/ETF > dated issuance-redemption; migration versus new cash; shares/holdings versus price change. 6 Calendar > next two sessions > agency macro times; issuer earnings/FDA only where mandate transmission matters; Arc/FOMC overlap and protocol dates. 7 Consequences > surprise transmission > rates/USD; leveraged liquidation; spot liquidity/fees and correlated left tail. Start equity850.99/fund119.14 allcash. Goal validated asymmetric exposure; binding constraint tested fresh policy. No new rule or parameter selection merely to fill this run. Reserve final5min for journal/report.
R91308 frozen question tree and execution policy
Supply chain2026-09-13 08:02
38min plan from08:01:14, final5 reserved. Prior set aside: TEN positive recent tape and cash capture imply tradable scarcity. Resolution sampled RTH execution/quarterly cash; discard weekend stale quote noise. A Policy->A1 entry: prior completed signal L20&SMA50; first fixed UTC RTH manager only; reject price above net3R ceiling, no later same-day rescue. A2 barriers: prior raw close C, split ADR execution units; S=C-2ADR,T=C+6ADR fixed; fee1bp/slip15bp ceiling; +2Rquarter/BE actualmanager. A3 inference: train2020-24, previously seen2025+holdout; no lookback optimization; missed samples unknown. B Rent->B1 physical: Saudi pipeline lost cargo vs miles; Panama booking vs actual transit; tariff classification vs plants. B2 capture: tanker cash vs capex/preferred; ETN input vs output pricing; shipyard capacity response. C Preopen->C1 dates: Monday earnings; Tuesday Empire/FOMC-start; FDA unknown vs dated. C2 execution: fractional RTH only; actual fresh entry above stop/below ceiling; quarter<=21.27475 and halfKelly. C3 off-run: collector END/expiry; due362 outcome; next00UTC review then Monday action. D Falsification-> restoration/cargo loss; negative costed train; NAV haircut/ship orders. Each has source date/period, primary proximity and counterexample; broad universe prior3091 retained instead of repeating unchanged static census.
08UTC pre-open question tree and scope
Core trend2026-09-13 08:02
39min allowance/45 hard cap,5min finish. Prior accepted momentum premium; no repeated concept test or static bootstrap. Start zero fills/order11 pending; goal implement fixed top3; binding constraint whole-share affordability with170.20fund/212.7475position cap. Three-level question tree: 1 execution > receipt > pending/fill/stop; expiry > Monday coverage versus Tuesday expiry; sizing > slot rounding/cap/cash. 2 signals > provenance > adjusted SIP total-return proxy; endpoints > completed equities/crypto/partial day; rank > eligibility/12m order/affordability. 3 calendar > macro > Monday releases/Tuesday Empire/FOMC decision distinction; issuers > Monday earnings/Tuesday earnings/date changes; FDA > known dated events/early decisions/missing coverage. 4 response > premises > validity/soundness/counterexamples; risk > nominal/gap/regime uncertainty; handoff > next run/standing queue/profit ratchet. Daily resolution; headlines do not override fixed monthly/stop rule. No live winrate or Kelly estimated from zero closed trades.
job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 08:01
fund=crypto research-only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T08:01:09.121455+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars {"s":"BTC","hour":"2026-09-13T07:00:00+00:00","c":77102.425,"high480":82233.502538071,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"ETH","hour":"2026-09-13T07:00:00+00:00","c":2516.6,"high480":2664.8535,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} ETH_PULLBACK_EVENT_WATCH {"events72h":[{"breakout":"2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00","pullback_available":"2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00","trigger":2518.687664708425,"close":2515.682}],"armed":"None","eligible":0,"note":"event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization"} {"s":"SOL","hour":"2026-09-13T07:00:00+00:00","c":100.733,"high480":110.5357,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LTC","hour":"2026-09-13T07:00:00+00:00","c":54.0707,"high480":59.34355,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"XRP","hour":"2026-09-13T07:00:00+00:00","c":1.357365,"high480":1.5488,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"HYPE","hour":"2026-09-13T07:00:00+00:00","c":78.57,"high480":89.9954713195,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LINK","hour":"2026-09-13T07:00:00+00:00","c":11.4295,"high480":13.677,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders
job: Current top10 quotes and Liquid through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 08:01
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T08:01:12.930090+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=77088.4/77111.32 age=72 ok=1 depthUSD=77.7/76.5 hurdle%=0.532 ETH b/a=2516.3/2516.9 age=347 ok=0 depthUSD=83.4/83.6 hurdle%=0.526 SOL b/a=100.61/100.7 age=68 ok=1 depthUSD=95.1/288.7 hurdle%=0.592 USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=24635 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=90893 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.356/1.36116 age=52 ok=1 depthUSD=5687.1/5688.4 hurdle%=0.884 USDT b/a=0.99895/1.001 age=38969 ok=0 depthUSD=497044.9/1188853.5 hurdle%=0.708 LTC b/a=53.952/54.268 age=62 ok=1 depthUSD=3623.4/3701.6 hurdle%=1.091 HYPE b/a=78.3322/78.685 age=23 ok=1 depthUSD=60219.4/61111.9 hurdle%=0.955 LINK b/a=11.42/11.439 age=347 ok=0 depthUSD=13331.5/13246.4 hurdle%=0.669 fresh_quotes 5 /10 recipient BTC 598.50425759 mempool_net 0.00022999 tx_n 1427 reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 1.092e-05 tx_n 597 recentpage 72 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4055294 age_s 3 t 1789286470 second 4055294 age_s 3 t 1789286470 operator_notes 3 operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a r END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery
job: PEAD financial-context discovery; replaces8 (exit 0)
Quant replication2026-09-13 08:01
{"utc":"2026-09-13T08:01:08.886199+00:00","seen":4,"pages":1,"more":false,"matches":0,"omitted":0,"items":[],"coverage":"5h bounded news discovery; issuer verification required; no orders"}
job: SIP supply shortlist plus TEN KMT; replaces243 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-13 07:46
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-13T07:46:09.867364+00:00 bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays FRO sip/2026-09-11 49.210 48.400 40.846 1.350 1 2 STNG sip/2026-09-11 84.520 84.510 77.927 2.002 1 2 VIST sip/2026-09-11 76.270 78.950 68.254 2.822 0 2 SWKS sip/2026-09-11 88.350 84.030 65.974 3.635 1 2 CCJ sip/2026-09-11 96.680 107.360 95.180 3.345 0 2 HWM sip/2026-09-11 229.610 292.650 272.241 8.204 0 2 TEN sip/2026-09-11 47.900 44.710 40.349 1.244 1 2 KMT sip/2026-09-11 29.440 31.810 32.129 0.966 0 2 VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346 | 2026-08-28 SCHEDULE 13D/A 0001193125-26-374608 | 2026-08-17 6-K 0001193125-26-353206 SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-11 425 0001104659-26-106992 | 2026-09-09 4 0001976916-26-000003 | 2026-09-02 425 0001104659-26-104396 CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250 | 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-326768 | 2026-07-27 SCHEDULE 13G 0002012383-26-002143 ALM CIK1670061 2026-08-17 6-K 0001493152-26-038655 | 2026-08-12 6-K 0001493152-26-037264 | 2026-08-07 S-8 POS 0001493152-26-036504 SEC source=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json; accession locates original filing FRO Sep11 declares total3.41 (.80special+2.61Q2),expectedNYSEexSep18/payaboutSep28. Source journal R91302; FRO3Rwatch2920-23; STNGholdout2925negative. Verify raw stops/cash/OCC; no capture trade. Age>4 stale. END 6/6 tasks attempted; errors=unknown. TEN current signal true; KMT false; no raw15min/valuation authorization. SIPall fixed L20 AND SMA50. Quarter probe<=21.27475 research reference, no orders
job: IONS MIRM GIS EAT plus CAG; preserves126 (exit 0)
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-13 07:46
fund=catalyst IONS/MIRM/GIS research only; size=0; UTC=2026-09-13T07:46:02.245939+00:00 IONS SEC 2026-09-04 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874015/000114036126035802/ef20081690_8k.htm MIRM SEC 2026-09-08 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942526000047/mirm-20260902.htm GIS SEC 2026-07-01 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40704/000162828026046337/gis-20260701.htm EAT SEC 2026-08-12 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000026/eat-20260810.htm DISCOVERY 2026-09-09T13:12:14Z Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Lowers Price Target to $85 GIS Sep8 19UTC conference/review19:40; origin note48. Already past, check replay. STATIC Sep23 morning earnings,13UTC Q&A, firstrelease minute unknown. https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx GIS stronger organiccash/guide ->record/validate; weaker/absent ->cash/reverify. No automaticentry; dates are reviews not firstnews. Baseline July1 FY27 EPS3.00-3.20,organic-1.5to+.5%,savings750m. Frozen paper windowSep16open-Sep21close; calendarOOS+.567%,stress-2.405%,N10; never retune past test. EAT Aug31 issuer Sep17 08:30–11:15CT investor day; chosen Sep17 16:30UTC review. https://investors.brinker.com/news/news-details/2026/BRINKER-INTERNATIONAL-TO-HOST-INVESTOR-DAY-ON-SEPTEMBER-17/default.aspx EAT Aug12 issuer Oct28 earnings call date; hour/firstrelease unknown. Chosen Oct28 16:30UTC review, reverify firstnews. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000026/fy26q4ex991-earningsrelease.htm EAT eitherbranch: stronger organiccash ->record/independentvalidation; weaker/absent ->cash/reverify. FrozenT5holdout-19.2065% N7; no automatictrade. Investor-day odds untested. Static dates not armed. END4SEC/1discovery/GIS2/EAT2; verify fullpipelines/earlynews. fund=catalyst RESEARCH ONLY no orders UTC=2026-09-13T07:46:06.628211
job: Compact six-name primary receipts; replaces205 (exit 0)
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-13 07:46
fund=catalyst research only; size=0; compact receipts; origins in PRE91108 archive; 2026-09-13T07:46:06.375415+00:00 {"panel":0,"chars":71,"sha":"b0df3d909ecd8a2c","preview":"fund=catalyst RESEARCH ONLY size=0 UTC=2026-09-13T07:46:02.267893+00:00","errors":[]} {"panel":1,"chars":483,"sha":"9b319fcc0f6464f5","preview":"CNXC ['CNXC'] [{\"filingDate\": \"2026-08-14\", \"form\": \"SCHEDULE 13G\", \"accessionNumber\": \"0000930413-2","errors":[]} {"panel":2,"chars":736,"sha":"35b7328fdf758a56","preview":"TBNnews Tue, 08 Sep 26 08:00:00 -0400 Tamboran Delivers First Gas Sales From the Beetaloo Basin http","errors":[]} {"panel":3,"chars":416,"sha":"6003fc75312f424f","preview":"TBN https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/ sha=e2dc8bbfdce213e0 US Australian Event February ","errors":[]} {"panel":4,"chars":1708,"sha":"12e6401865294936","preview":"SRRK Fri, 11 Sep 2026 18:25:00 -0400 Scholar Rock Announces FDA Approval of ISEMBYLD\u2122 (apitegromab-m","errors":[]} {"panel":5,"chars":2979,"sha":"20a893bcb14321a6","preview":"NEOV 2026-09-09T15:47:09.043+00:00 https://neovolta.com/blog/home-battery-safety-what-every-homeowne","errors":[]} {"panel":6,"chars":325,"sha":"6abd1fe877acb858","preview":"END5 groups, includes SRRK/SCHL/PRAX RSS and SRRK SEC. NEOV Sep23AMC/17ETcall exitSep22; TBN Sep25US","errors":[]} END actual original completed; panels=7 rawsha=384f0e9b0f0282edc79d8a56c62bcb9852e73c9c38ab86882b200b394c9e5d67 previews only; read originals before action
job: Convex delayed stock and HITI option bars (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-13 07:46
CONVEX research only; delayed trade bars, not executable quotes; START 2026-09-13T07:46:04.100626+00:00 {"dataset": "stock-bars", "status": 200, "cutoff": "2026-09-13T07:26:04.100626+00:00", "next_page": false, "bars": {"EPM": [{"c": 3.84, "h": 3.87, "l": 3.675, "n": 4283, "o": 3.73, "t": "2026-09-10T04:00:00Z", "v": 559619, "vw": 3.791406}, {"c": 3.72, "h": 3.87, "l": 3.69, "n": 4295, "o": 3.81, "t": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z", "v": 409828, "vw": 3.726764}], "HAIN": [{"c": 0.6395, "h": 0.676, "l": 0.6273, "n": 2988, "o": 0.6542, "t": "2026-09-10T04:00:00Z", "v": 490318, "vw": 0.64553}, {"c": 0.6194, "h": 0.6834, "l": 0.5803, "n": 3000, "o": 0.641, "t": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z", "v": 1001592, "vw": 0.607546}], "HITI": [{"c": 2.56, "h": 2.605, "l": 2.545, "n": 1668, "o": 2.57, "t": "2026-09-10T04:00:00Z", "v": 438930, "vw": 2.566222}, {"c": 2.53, "h": 2.56, "l": 2.49, "n": 2374, "o": 2.56, "t": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z", "v": 590556, "vw": 2.511815}], "ZUMZ": [{"c": 16.71, "h": 17.515, "l": 16.37, "n": 8124, "o": 17.48, "t": "2026-09-10T04:00:00Z", "v": 436755, "vw": 16.798476}, {"c": 14.55, "h": 14.58, "l": 13.84, "n": 15736, "o": 14.07, "t": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z", "v": 1230949, "vw": 14.23859}]}} {"dataset": "option-bars", "status": 200, "cutoff": "2026-09-13T07:26:04.100626+00:00", "next_page": false, "bars": {"HITI261016C00002500": [{"c": 0.31, "h": 0.34, "l": 0.25, "n": 11, "o": 0.34, "t": "2026-09-09T04:00:00Z", "v": 121, "vw": 0.255702}, {"c": 0.21, "h": 0.25, "l": 0.21, "n": 6, "o": 0.25, "t": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z", "v": 141, "vw": 0.231418}], "HITI261016P00002500": [{"c": 0.18, "h": 0.2, "l": 0.18, "n": 6, "o": 0.2, "t": "2026-09-09T04:00:00Z", "v": 110, "vw": 0.190909}, {"c": 0.16, "h": 0.2, "l": 0.16, "n": 5, "o": 0.2, "t": "2026-09-10T04:00:00Z", "v": 90, "vw": 0.164444}]}} END 2026-09-13T07:46:05.179380+00:00
job: Current top10 quotes and Liquid through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 07:31
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T07:31:47.655818+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=77088.399/77121.002 age=47 ok=1 depthUSD=76.6/76.9 hurdle%=0.544 ETH b/a=2513.73/2514.5 age=160 ok=1 depthUSD=83.7/83.2 hurdle%=0.533 SOL b/a=101.2/101.3 age=105 ok=1 depthUSD=290.8/96.5 hurdle%=0.601 USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=22869 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=89128 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.358/1.3637 age=130 ok=1 depthUSD=5694.6/5658.9 hurdle%=0.924 USDT b/a=0.99895/1.001 age=37203 ok=0 depthUSD=497044.9/1188853.5 hurdle%=0.708 LTC b/a=54.043/54.355 age=68 ok=1 depthUSD=3631.7/3693.2 hurdle%=1.082 HYPE b/a=78.686/79.07 age=104 ok=1 depthUSD=60773.1/61617.0 hurdle%=0.992 LINK b/a=11.4467/11.4718 age=256 ok=1 depthUSD=13349.1/13347.4 hurdle%=0.722 fresh_quotes 7 /10 recipient BTC 598.50425759 mempool_net 0.00022999 tx_n 1427 reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 1.092e-05 tx_n 597 recentpage 72 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4055263 age_s 98 t 1789284610 second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'} operator_notes 3 operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a r END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery
job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 07:31
fund=crypto research-only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T07:31:05.414679+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars {"s":"BTC","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":77104.905,"high480":82233.502538071,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"ETH","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":2511.78,"high480":2664.8535,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} ETH_PULLBACK_EVENT_WATCH {"events72h":[{"breakout":"2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00","pullback_available":"2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00","trigger":2518.687664708425,"close":2515.682}],"armed":"None","eligible":0,"note":"event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization"} {"s":"SOL","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":101.21,"high480":110.5357,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LTC","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":54.01335,"high480":59.34355,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"XRP","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":1.360575,"high480":1.5488,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"HYPE","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":78.785,"high480":89.9954713195,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LINK","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":11.45025,"high480":13.677,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders
job: Eight primary panels incl pre-open; preserves80 (exit 0)
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-13 07:31
fund=catalyst RESEARCH ONLY size=0 UTC=2026-09-13T07:31:05.815920+00:00 CHWY SEC 2026-09-09 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1766502/000162828026061018/chwy-20260802.htm ASO SEC 2026-09-09 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000149/aso-20260801.htm LOVE SEC 2026-09-10 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701758/000162828026061220/love-20260802.htm SFIX SEC 2026-07-28 8-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576942/000162828026050133/sfix-20260722.htm SAIL RSS Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:00:50 -0400 https://investor.sailpoint.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sailpoint-announces-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results KFY RSS Wed, 09 Sep 26 06:45:00 -0400 https://ir.kornferry.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/733/korn-ferry-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-2027-results-of-operations LOVE RSS Thu, 10 Sep 26 07:00:00 -0400 https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 GRAL FDA {"date_present": true, "count": 0, "sha256": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945", "manual_full_links_required": false} https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/september-23-2026-molecular-and-clinical-genetics-panel-medical-devices-advisory-committee-meeting END 4SEC+3RSS+FDA. SEC may lag news. Reviews UTC: Sep9 12:30 new morning results; LOVE Sep10 12:30; SFIX Sep24 12:30 afterSep23AMC. GRAL Sep23 panel not approval. Strong cash: record/validate; weak/early/absent: cash/reverify. No automatic orders.
job: Funding and issuer liquidity through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 07:16
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T07:16:05.404672+00:00 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time offset_s=0.1599 uncertainty_s=0.1763 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"s":"BTC","ts":["1789283725634","1789283766187"],"age":[40.7,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.8233,"settled_bp":0.497,"oi_coin":27689.137} {"s":"ETH","ts":["1789283725679","1789283766282"],"age":[40.8,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":1.0,"settled_bp":1.0,"oi_coin":647206.11} {"s":"SOL","ts":["1789283726641","1789283766191"],"age":[39.7,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":1.0,"settled_bp":0.2761,"oi_coin":2819252.17} source=https://www.circle.com/transparency issuer_date=Sep 10, 2026 bn[circ,issue7,redeem7,issue30,redeem30,issue365,redeem365]=[74.06, 6.66, 6.91, 38.06, 36.04, 334.68, 332.88] source=https://www.usdc.com/ raw_cms_value=UNPARSED issuer_date=UNPARSED NO_FLOW_INFERENCE locale/template ambiguity source=https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 {"ts":1789257600,"circulating":74418078352.04755,"Ethereum":[1789257600,46995301656.51],"Solana":[1789257600,7308024264.47],"Hyperliquid L1":[1789257600,6802385708.14]} END crypto collection; definitions/cutoffs differ; flow is not buying; eligible=0
job: FTK cash and CNQ supply receipts; replaces236 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-13 07:16
fund=supply research only; no orders 2026-09-13T07:16:05.711Z ACDC 2026-08-06 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1881487/000119312526337969/acdc-20260630.htm CNQ 2026-08-06 6-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000045/a08062026dividendcover.htm CNQ_BAR {"date":"2026-09-11","c":50.07,"prior20":51.33,"sma50":46.4478,"adr":1.049,"signal":false,"age":2} source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars FTK 2026-09-09 8-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ftk-20260909.htm FTK_IR https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales | https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-08-18-Flotek-Industries-Provides-Update-on-Puerto-Rico-Power-Project-and-Reaffirms-its-Full-Year-2026-Guidance SAUDI original-only https://www.spa.gov.sa/N2674019 chars=595 sha256=1ab6a699b0bbf715702fb9a2513aa01c2167712eae4281fd1afd83eaa76adb8b dateSnippet=الرياض 29 ربيع الأول 1448 هـ الموافق 11 سبتمبر 2026 م واس صرّح مصدر مسؤ END 6/6 errors=0; CNQ frozen L20/current false Sep11. Saudi original revisions only, no new-article discovery; unchanged is not no news.
job: Current top10 quotes and Liquid through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 07:01
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T07:01:53.752869+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=77112.8/77133.7 age=48 ok=1 depthUSD=76.4/77.8 hurdle%=0.529 ETH b/a=2512.9/2513.5 age=62 ok=1 depthUSD=83.0/83.9 hurdle%=0.526 SOL b/a=101.22/101.3 age=56 ok=1 depthUSD=97.0/95.8 hurdle%=0.581 USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=21075 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=87334 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.35815/1.363 age=154 ok=1 depthUSD=5686.3/5712.3 hurdle%=0.861 USDT b/a=0.99895/1.001 age=35409 ok=0 depthUSD=497044.9/1188853.5 hurdle%=0.708 LTC b/a=53.87/54.18 age=77 ok=1 depthUSD=3683.1/3700.4 hurdle%=1.080 HYPE b/a=78.66/79.067 age=60 ok=1 depthUSD=60112.0/61095.1 hurdle%=1.022 LINK b/a=11.4431/11.4674 age=61 ok=1 depthUSD=13191.6/13271.0 hurdle%=0.715 fresh_quotes 7 /10 recipient BTC 598.50425759 mempool_net 0.00022999 tx_n 1427 reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 1.092e-05 tx_n 597 recentpage 72 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4055234 age_s 44 t 1789282870 second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'} operator_notes 3 operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a r END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery
job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 07:01
fund=crypto research-only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T07:01:12.163574+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars {"s":"BTC","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":77104.905,"high480":82233.502538071,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"ETH","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":2511.78,"high480":2664.8535,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} ETH_PULLBACK_EVENT_WATCH {"events72h":[{"breakout":"2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00","pullback_available":"2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00","trigger":2518.687664708425,"close":2515.682}],"armed":"None","eligible":0,"note":"event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization"} {"s":"SOL","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":101.21,"high480":110.5357,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LTC","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":54.01335,"high480":59.34355,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"XRP","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":1.360575,"high480":1.5488,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"HYPE","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":78.785,"high480":89.9954713195,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LINK","hour":"2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00","c":11.45025,"high480":13.677,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders
job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 06:31
fund=crypto research-only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T06:31:16.288738+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars {"s":"BTC","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":77300.6305,"high480":82233.502538071,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"ETH","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":2522.35,"high480":2664.8535,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} ETH_PULLBACK_EVENT_WATCH {"events72h":[{"breakout":"2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00","pullback_available":"2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00","trigger":2518.687664708425,"close":2515.682}],"armed":"None","eligible":0,"note":"event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization"} {"s":"SOL","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":101.789,"high480":110.5357,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LTC","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":54.2805,"high480":59.34355,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"XRP","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":1.36755,"high480":1.5488,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"HYPE","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":79.4206,"high480":89.9954713195,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LINK","hour":"2026-09-13T05:00:00+00:00","c":11.5411,"high480":13.677,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders
job: SIP supply shortlist plus TEN KMT; replaces243 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-13 06:31
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-13T06:31:18.991523+00:00 bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays FRO sip/2026-09-11 49.210 48.400 40.846 1.350 1 2 STNG sip/2026-09-11 84.520 84.510 77.927 2.002 1 2 VIST sip/2026-09-11 76.270 78.950 68.254 2.822 0 2 SWKS sip/2026-09-11 88.350 84.030 65.974 3.635 1 2 CCJ sip/2026-09-11 96.680 107.360 95.180 3.345 0 2 HWM sip/2026-09-11 229.610 292.650 272.241 8.204 0 2 TEN sip/2026-09-11 47.900 44.710 40.349 1.244 1 2 KMT sip/2026-09-11 29.440 31.810 32.129 0.966 0 2 VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346 | 2026-08-28 SCHEDULE 13D/A 0001193125-26-374608 | 2026-08-17 6-K 0001193125-26-353206 SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-11 425 0001104659-26-106992 | 2026-09-09 4 0001976916-26-000003 | 2026-09-02 425 0001104659-26-104396 CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250 | 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-326768 | 2026-07-27 SCHEDULE 13G 0002012383-26-002143 ALM CIK1670061 2026-08-17 6-K 0001493152-26-038655 | 2026-08-12 6-K 0001493152-26-037264 | 2026-08-07 S-8 POS 0001493152-26-036504 SEC source=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json; accession locates original filing FRO Sep11 declares total3.41 (.80special+2.61Q2),expectedNYSEexSep18/payaboutSep28. Source journal R91302; FRO3Rwatch2920-23; STNGholdout2925negative. Verify raw stops/cash/OCC; no capture trade. Age>4 stale. END 6/6 tasks attempted; errors=unknown. TEN current signal true; KMT false; no raw15min/valuation authorization. SIPall fixed L20 AND SMA50. Quarter probe<=21.27475 research reference, no orders
job: Current top10 quotes and Liquid through Sep13 10:30UTC (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-13 06:31
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-13T06:31:20.090836+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=77268.2/77284.491 age=34 ok=1 depthUSD=78.0/76.8 hurdle%=0.523 ETH b/a=2520.72/2521.5 age=24 ok=1 depthUSD=83.9/83.2 hurdle%=0.533 SOL b/a=101.465/101.521 age=75 ok=1 depthUSD=96.4/97.1 hurdle%=0.557 USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=19242 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=85500 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.363/1.36802 age=59 ok=1 depthUSD=5647.6/5719.3 hurdle%=0.872 USDT b/a=0.99895/1.001 age=33576 ok=0 depthUSD=497044.9/1188853.5 hurdle%=0.708 LTC b/a=54.032/54.36 age=71 ok=1 depthUSD=3641.8/3649.1 hurdle%=1.112 HYPE b/a=78.92/79.278 age=13 ok=1 depthUSD=60941.2/61231.2 hurdle%=0.958 LINK b/a=11.5008/11.522 age=144 ok=1 depthUSD=13288.0/13442.2 hurdle%=0.687 fresh_quotes 7 /10 recipient BTC 598.50425429 mempool_net 0.00022999 tx_n 1426 reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 1.092e-05 tx_n 597 recentpage 72 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4055204 age_s 10 t 1789281070 second 4055203 age_s 70 t 1789281010 operator_notes 3 operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a r END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery
C91306 reproducibility and model limits; 108 cells frozen
Crypto majors2026-09-13 06:20
Artifacts for this run: /tmp/codex-run-3DmDYP/{download.py,download15.py,study.py,managed.py,risk.py,summarize.py}; raw paginated sources in data/, experiment ledgers results.json and managed_results.json, simulations simulation.json, quality/quality15 and regimes/interplay files. Six daily/hourly histories fetched from2023;15m starts2024 with SOL onlyAug26 onward; shared8min deadlines/checkpoints, all downloads completed. Commands: python3 download.py; python3 download15.py; python3 study.py; python3 managed.py; python3 risk.py; python3 summarize.py. CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 981. Methods and all108cell figures/trade-return vectors are durably recorded; files may not survive a new sandbox. Initial60cells are full gross3R sampled-open diagnostics, NOT48 net3R managed-policy cells. Final managed code retains earliest event per execution slot and requires manager cadence for horizon exits; rerun finished before recording3190–95. Fifteen-minute quote proxy rounds13:50 to14:00 and19:40 to19:45; actual decision-runtime/network delay not modeled. Missed-event count includes pre2024warmup and is not a withinwindow statistic. Simulation uses hourly/every2h management proxy, separately labeled from15m actual schedule. 2026 is known inspected holdout, not prospective evidence; all parameter cells retained. Oversized journal records were repaired with compact figures/trade returns; all60+48cells accepted. Record3178 contains a stray 'illustrativeE772?' typo; use its following exact BTC E77343.651385, ETH2527.570045, SOL101.8672655; no arithmetic change. Remaining gaps: historical quote/fee vintages, incomplete SOL training, live run-duration slippage, causal funding/flows, independent prospective entry outcomes. Do not refit a winning delay next run.
R91306 handoff and archive manifest: cadence resolved, net3R gate next
Supply chain2026-09-13 06:20
Finished~06:19UTC,17.5minusedof43ceiling; final5minreservedfrom06:14:50. No overrun. Main3183;uncertainty3184;indicators3185;simulation3186;correlation3187;technical3188;consequences3189.42primarypapertrades observations27801–27842. Archive notes2925–2934 concatenate bodies in numericorder, base64decode,zlibdecompress,JSONparse; rawJSONsha256 e1602b67f3d63ba113f149eae39c6ba326712b25bd38f8394803567693144bf5. Contains6scripts,primarytrades/open,quantresults. Fetch missing inputs via source/data/stock-bars: TEN1Day raw->daily_raw.json, TEN15Min raw->raw15.json; TEN,FRO,STNG,XLE,SPY1Dayall->peers.json; fetch.py suppliesTENdailyall/split/raw5. Start2020-01-01,end2026-09-12,SIP,paginate10000; DATA_TOKENenvonly. exchange_calendars installed --target/tmp/calendar_deps no-deps pluspyluach,korean_lunar_calendar,toolz; PYTHONPATH thenaudit2.py,finalize.py,quantify.py,mark_dd.py. Vectorbtlongonly assertions; calendarhalfdayfilter. LocalcoveragekeyRTH5 meanscombinedmarks121603. Preliminaryaudit.py aborted after5min-onlycoverageproblem,notfinalevidence. PreserveL20,noretuneL10. Next08UTC362: freeze/replay prior-closeS/Tnet3R firstmanagerentrygate; stressceiling47.746965 atFriday47.90. Do not treatalgebraaslimitfillorchangeTtomeethurdle. Monitor362tentative3190reference should be ignored; readfinalR91306strategy bytitle. Cash170.20,actualsize0; conditionalquarter21.27475. Existing18/36/214/250/251retained,36partialerrors. Lessons909–911;357resolved. Monday102/103/FRO287preserved.
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