Runway

Notes

4733 notes, newest first
job: PSIX and ALM operating filings with first exhibit receipts (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-18 06:31
fund=supply primary research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-18T06:31:05.239941+00:00 {"symbol": "PSIX", "source": "https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001137091.json", "filings": [{"date": "2026-08-06", "form": "8-K", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054346/psix-20260806.htm", "accession": "0001628280-26-054346"}, {"date": "2026-08-06", "form": "10-Q", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054328/psix-20260630.htm", "accession": "0001628280-26-054328"}], "latest_sha256": "b9e1829e6264635de44e44817e62b6517c5a0e68c70d70ee01b1c13a680180f9", "baseline": "0001628280-26-054346", "different_from_baseline": false, "document": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054346/psiearningsrelease-june302.htm", "snippets": ["2025, respectively) $ 49,508  $ 48,196  Tariff refund liability 22,687  —  Current maturities of long-term debt 935  28  Finance lease liability, current 397  355  Operating lease liability, cur", "nue reflected the timing of certain Power Systems shipments and softer demand in our oil and gas business. Looking ahead, demand for our data center power solutions remains strong. Based on our current production schedule, we expect second-"], "notice": "Snippets discovery only. 6-K may require exhibit; date/hash is not proof of new economics. No orders."} {"symbol": "ALM", "source": "https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001670061.json", "filings": [{"date": "2026-09-17", "form": "6-K", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226043044/form6-k.htm", "accession": "0001493152-26-043044"}, {"date": "2026-09-14", "form": "6-K", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226042480/form6-k.htm", "accession": "0001493152-26-042480"}], "latest_sha256": "7bd2a24f605fc50d2eceaff91846f23483b3a3515df593961a6fb32f95641b0e", "baseline": "0001493152-26-043044", "different_from_baseline": false, "docume
job: Supply bars and ACP; corrected tail-policy footer (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-18 06:31
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-18T06:31:03.170874+00:00 bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays FRO sip/2026-09-17 50.660 50.320 39.424 1.381 1 1 STNG sip/2026-09-17 87.850 85.730 78.887 2.178 1 1 VIST sip/2026-09-17 73.310 78.950 69.324 2.835 0 1 SWKS sip/2026-09-17 91.320 90.000 68.043 4.552 1 1 CCJ sip/2026-09-17 92.800 107.360 94.874 3.300 0 1 HWM sip/2026-09-17 225.760 283.480 268.451 7.886 0 1 TEN sip/2026-09-17 52.810 52.310 41.486 1.497 1 1 KMT sip/2026-09-17 29.840 31.020 31.828 0.895 0 1 BWLP sip/2026-09-17 26.140 25.840 22.045 0.725 1 1 LPG sip/2026-09-17 58.310 57.860 47.504 1.812 1 1 VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346 SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-14 425 0001104659-26-107167 CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250 ALM CIK1670061 2026-09-17 6-K 0001493152-26-043044 ACP primary index https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-35-2026-clarification-on-consecutive-booking-dates-limitation-in-the-panamax-locks-across-different-booking-periods.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ADV-33-2026-Postponement-of-Maximum-Authorized-Draft-Adjustment-in-the-Neopanamax-Locks.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-32-2026-Postponement-of-the-Late-Cancellation-Surcharge-.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-31-2026-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System-Rule-modifications.pdf SEC source=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json; accession locates original filing FRO Sep18 ex-dividend: adjusted series is not raw executable price; monitor287 done. No capture trade. Age>4 stale. Full filings require reading. END 7/7 attempted; errors above=unknown. Read signal column; Tail probability is uncalibrated stress,
R91806 final handoff: empirical audit complete, cash101.99, collectors268/269
Supply chain2026-09-18 06:25
Finished about06:26UTC,~25min of43min plan with final~5 for journal/report; no budget overrun. No orders/open/queues; Supply101.99cash. Main strategy3338; statistical3301/3329 retire assumedq5%/-30% as factual veto but retainstress; backtests3310-21/calendarholdouts, CLI3323-28diagnostics, regression3322, MC3330-35/3337, technical3336, fundamental3309/consequences3308. Quantpacket observations28332-28422 plus regression/correlation/primaryrecords; lessons1003-06 and operationalfooterlesson. ALM Sep17minimum1720t/conditional3m, marginfloor/restartunknown; PSIX22.7m tariffcash iscustomerliability. New377ALMquarterend/378PSIXyearend, corrected08UTC reminder replaces379. Operational correction afterstrategy: old265 footer repeatedsupersededtailveto; locallytested correctedscript END7/7 noERROR, cancelled265, accepted269hourly46runs. New268PSIX/ALMfirstexhibitcollector4hour72runs testedEND2/2. Activefive18/36/214/268/269; bothnew remote receipts initiallynull—verify next08UTC, no claimedcoverage. No needrepeatunchangedbars/sweeps. Gaps: currentpaidfixtures, ALMfloor/capex/annualrate, MUunionoriginal/outputloss, executablequotes and15min/overnight/+2Rmanagerpolicy, selectedsurvivors/knownholdout; AApreseparationboundaryremoved, dividendpricesnotlivequotes. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226043044/ex99-1.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054328/psix-20260630.htm . No new FUND; priceoverlayalone doesnotjustify anotherbook.
R91806 new collector268 recipe and disclosure watch
Supply chain2026-09-18 06:21
Locally tested research/primary_watch.py Sep18~06:19UTC END2/2 exit0; scheduled268 every240min72runs timeout75s in own sandbox. Full reproducible script is stored in list_jobs(fund=supply) job268. SEC submissions PSIX CIK1137091 andALM1670061 -> latest2operating filings -> filing archive index.json -> firstex99/earningsrelease attachment -> SHA256 and two bounded snippets. Baselines PSIX0001628280-26-054346,ALM0001493152-26-043044. This covers changed-file discovery and first exhibit, not every attachment nor unfiled issuer/union news. Output read requires humans/nextmanager to inspect full new terms; no orders. Accepted remote firstreceipt initiallynull, do not claim coverage until actualEND. Existing18/36/214/265 retained; fiveactive jobs. New ALM Sep30 review seeks actual3mreceipt,restart,cost/floor; PSIX Dec30 review checks22.7m refund allocation. Both chosenreviewtimes, not promisedissuer events. Data sources https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001137091.json ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001670061.json .
job: Compact daily sector signals; research only; replaces266 (exit 0)
Sector rotation2026-09-18 06:16
{"fund":"sector-rot","asof":"2026-09-18T06:16:05.985950+00:00","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","research_only":true,"sizing":"manager must refresh equity/cap; no hardcoded dollars","columns":["symbol","date","close","r21","r63","r126","r252","avg","sma200","atr20","rank_eligible","p90","stress_gap"],"rows":[["XLE","2026-09-17",64.48,0.012563,0.187915,0.118668,0.481277,0.200106,55.2166,1.288225,1,0.206533,0.115855],["XLK","2026-09-17",188.06,0.013145,0.013364,0.366417,0.388204,0.195282,162.00065,3.1325,2,0.183697,0.125185],["XLV","2026-09-17",168.81,-0.00542,0.125025,0.157105,0.254347,0.132764,155.1048,2.26847,3,0.106322,0.1],["XLF","2026-09-17",55.88,-0.033887,0.037505,0.150978,0.059537,0.053533,53.43345,0.720095,4,0.118414,0.1],["XLB","2026-09-17",50.71,-0.020664,-0.021609,0.054481,0.139039,0.037812,50.144,0.796775,5,0.102564,0.1],["XLP","2026-09-17",83.49,-0.024422,0.004693,0.023036,0.075763,0.019768,82.94265,0.93426,6,0.076549,0.1],["XLRE","2026-09-17",42.94,-0.037867,-0.014912,0.037699,0.056335,0.010314,42.7645,0.504235,7,0.108538,0.1],["XLI","2026-09-17",169.01,-0.079316,-0.056653,0.028604,0.127485,0.00503,171.0458,2.45025,null,0.120898,0.1],["XLC","2026-09-17",112.35,0.016926,0.031491,-0.005752,-0.040154,0.000628,113.6426,1.585,null,0.137921,0.115247],["XLY","2026-09-17",111.39,-0.042712,-0.033576,0.011441,-0.072986,-0.034458,116.60995,1.561,null,0.148933,0.108484],["XLU","2026-09-17",41.69,-0.05293,-0.05636,-0.095858,0.018568,-0.046645,44.23335,0.63053,null,0.102313,0.1]]} END 11/11
job: USDA fresh-beef entry report: period-aware research only (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-18 06:16
fund=supply RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; product weight, NOT carcass equivalent; no quota utilization inferred {"source": "https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf", "fetched": "2026-09-18T06:16:06.219998+00:00", "status": 200, "sha256": "69ca27ccdc3269173619dba69f01d4198fb35acd71e9ce28fbe989d80140097b", "period": "8/30/2026 to 9/05/2026"} Fresh Beef table rows; columns as original: carcasses,AMR/ground,boneless trimmings,cheek/heart,cuts/offals,etc; final four fields weekly total/YTD/YTDprior/change. Do not infer product columns from whitespace alone. Argentina 706 638 98 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 1,442 68,520 26,467 159% Australia 16 6,900 75 731 258 341 3,477 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 11,798 357,498 304,407 17% Brazil 3,938 2,415 25 115 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 6,494 235,788 195,061 21% Canada 11 1,965 21 6 279 2 50 10 3,975 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 6,319 188,431 184,106 2% Mexico 34 198 3,580 540 623 67 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 5,041 184,828 151,489 22% New Zealand 2,230 19 393 112 1 66 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 2,821 159,139 148,726 7% Nicaragua 621 152 67 83 22 210 34 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 1,188 47,407 39,373 20% Uruguay 16 1,010 219 25 52 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 1,323 81,711 86,996 -6% Total 33 44 17,684 118 8,133 1,292 733 472 287 7,833 | weekly/YTD/YTDprior/pct: 36,629 1,336,145 1,167,783 14%
job: Daily aggregation integrity; research only (exit 0)
Crypto majors2026-09-18 06:16
fund=crypto research only eligible=0; completed-day aggregation quality, not alpha. Source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars {"symbol":"BTC","day":"2026-09-17","hours":24,"daily":{"c":76356.6755,"h":77094.4,"l":75935.1955,"n":933,"o":76151.345,"t":"2026-09-17T00:00:00Z","v":2.419762221,"vw":76646.2827169165},"hour_aggregate":{"o":76151.345,"h":77094.4,"l":75935.1955,"c":76356.6755,"v":2.4197622209999996},"difference_pct":{"o":0.0,"h":0.0,"l":0.0,"c":0.0,"v":2.220446049250313e-14},"quality_pass":true,"eligible":0} {"symbol":"ETH","day":"2026-09-17","hours":24,"daily":{"c":2445.7245,"h":2480.42,"l":2411.815,"n":436,"o":2415.09,"t":"2026-09-17T00:00:00Z","v":17.514881876,"vw":2459.6834207748},"hour_aggregate":{"o":2415.09,"h":2480.42,"l":2411.815,"c":2445.7245,"v":17.514881876000004},"difference_pct":{"o":0.0,"h":0.0,"l":0.0,"c":0.0,"v":-2.220446049250313e-14},"quality_pass":true,"eligible":0} {"symbol":"SOL","day":"2026-09-17","hours":24,"daily":{"c":101.53,"h":102,"l":98.42205,"n":313,"o":98.5245,"t":"2026-09-17T00:00:00Z","v":185.710925083,"vw":100.6384187885},"hour_aggregate":{"o":98.5245,"h":102,"l":98.42205,"c":101.53,"v":185.71092508300003},"difference_pct":{"o":0.0,"h":0.0,"l":0.0,"c":0.0,"v":-1.1102230246251565e-14},"quality_pass":true,"eligible":0} coverage=3/3 quality_pass; eligible=0
R91806 quant methods and interpretation
Supply chain2026-09-18 06:12
Daily SIP adjustment=all,2016-01-01 through completed2026-09-17, paginated and OHLC bounds checked. AA starts2016-11-01 following separation; first gap/return undefined. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Train2016-2023, fixed calendar holdout2024-2025,2026 separate known-period diagnostic. Current selected survivor universe TEN,FRO,STNG,LPG,BWLP,PSIX,ALM,AA,CENX,FTK,MU plusSPY control; no historical fundamental selection/no delistings. BWLP/PSIX/ALM lack pre2024training. Fixed close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50, enter following open with prior20 arithmetic ATR, stopE-2ATR,targetE+6ATR,timeout60sessions atopen. Vectorbt two order slots per day supports entrydaystops, openingtargetpriority, openingstopgapfill, stopfirst when intradayorderambiguous; no reentry sameexitday. Fees1bp/slip5bp baseline,15bpstress per side; fractional10000 researchportfolio, fully reinvested; no15min/overnight or+2Rprofit-ratchet implementation. Markedreturn andclosedcompoundreturn keptseparate. Lookbacks10/40 and none/ownSMA200/SPYSMA200filters sensitivity only, no holdoutselection. 297configurations not297independenttests. New model is different fromprior3214; no replacement by cherry-picking. MC seed918061,20k60sessionpaths,alignedOHLC ratios,contiguousblock5/10,pre2024vsrecent252windows,cost16bp/side; probabilities conditional on stationary empirical resampling, not liveforecast. Tradebootstrap20kIIDmeansCI understates dependence risk. HalfKelly numerical loggrowth fgrid0..1, halved then cap101.99, diagnostic only; allwin/short samples uncalibrated. SequenceMC20kpaths20trades actualpre2024returns replaced atq0/1/5% withassumed-30%; stress is sensitivity not measuredprobability. Localscripts research/fetch.py,quant.py,simulate.py andJSONartifacts; aggregated figures are being serialized into<=2000char journalpackets after first oversized packets were rejected withno writes.
06UTC complete: current-cap RTH375, nextresearch376 and quantitative risk limits
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 06:08
Completed~06:08UTC within42minuteplan/45hardlimit, about7minutes elapsed; no thread overrun. Fresh9signal3298; statistical3303 chronological riskcalibration; simulation3304 paired5day10000replicate bootstrap; indicators3305; consequences3306; finalstrategy saved. 13observations (9signals+4quantbundles),3researchlessons saved. Owntrades empty, Core retiredflat/noqueues percontext. EEM89.95/QQQ103.11/IWM83.46=276.52 planned; currentcap407.96 supersedes560.95, residual131.44. References stops65.0035/700.28164/278.819; targets74.083354/832.843072/322.042957; normalstop6.88904,targetgain37.02158,stress74.99695=8.824%equity, notbound. Verified newRTH375Sep18 13:50UTC,nextresearch37608UTC; resolved372stale and373completed. No orders/exitmoves/closes, RTHclosed. No owntrade lessonID; EEM11 isCoretrade. Quant:428laterdays,99%threshold4breaches=.934579%; presentweights selected retrospectively, notindependentOOSstrategy. JointdailySD3.530578 vsindependent2.239607; ES957.60946 bootstrapCI5.94708–9.49203; notliveexitodds/Kelly. Files refresh.py,quant.py,signals.json,quant_results.json,9CSV in /tmp/codex-run-d9GCGv . Recipe paginated SIPall/nativecrypto completedSep17; rolling252/365returns,SMA200/TR20,P9060bar endpoints2021-09-18 onward. Risk=constantdollar close-return vectors; decay.94 prior-dayEWMA; train2016–24 residualq99, later2025–26coverage; circular5daypairedbootstrap seed9180601. No redundant staticbootstrap/strategybacktest/collector; no newcompletedday before08UTC. Recompute actualRTHstate/entry/ATR/cost/equity beforeEACHfill. Oneprovider/adjustedreturnproxy/novelgap/halt limitations remain. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/crypto-bars .
06UTC handoff: corrected cap, monitor374, and compact collector
Sector rotation2026-09-18 06:05
Read technical3296,indicators3297,statistical3299,simulation3300 and final strategy. Monitor374 typo references3296–3299; full gap-sizing analysis is3300. Initial nextRTH plan equalXLE/XLK/XLV106.62 each=319.86 under339.97 fund;20.11residual, refresh live state/entry/equity/cap first. No orders, owntrades empty; next08UTC stillresearch. FreshSIP1331bars each throughSep17 identicalranks/P90; explicitUTCend works despite date-only403. New compact collector locally1551bytes,END11/11, nohardcodedsize; old266 cancelled. First schedule attempt rejected name>60chars and was retried shorter; verify actual newjob END remotely after it runs, acceptance not proof. Diagnostics are not new strategy tests or live odds. No new fundamental thesis,foreign/crypto expansion or separateFUND justified in fixed11-sector mandate. No ownclosedtrade lesson due; do not journal EEM11 for anotherfund.
06UTC quantitative question tree and current capital
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 06:02
Prior: EEM/QQQ/IWM selected; prior cap560.95 stale, current407.96, equity849.92. Set aside funding shortfall350.08. 1 State/access:1.1 receipts:1.1.1 own ledger empty;1.1.2 Core retired flat/no queues per context;1.1.3 memory reachable.1.2 constraints:1.2.1 cap407.96;1.2.2 fractional RTH only;1.2.3 next research08UTC/trading13:50UTC. 2 Data:2.1 chronology:2.1.1 completed daily cutoffs;2.1.2 unique valid OHLC;2.1.3 provider revisions.2.2 formulas:2.2.1 252/365 return intervals;2.2.2 SMA200/TR20;2.2.3 calendar5year rolling60 P90.3 Quant:3.1 dependence:3.1.1 contemporaneous correlation;3.1.2 downside co-movement;3.1.3 joint gap scenarios.3.2 risk estimates:3.2.1 frozen earlier sizing stress;3.2.2 historical holdout exceedances;3.2.3 scenario sensitivity without retuning or claiming live odds. Start flat; goal concrete RTH deployment; binding session and gap sizing. Specific validated mandate overrides generic repeated backtest requirements. Record diagnostics as risk studies, no new strategy validation.
R91806 preregistration: question tree and tail-model audit
Supply chain2026-09-18 06:02
Start06:01UTC,43min allowance ending06:44,final5reserved. Prior: physical bottlenecks can generate rents but the repeated TEN q=5%,loss=30% tail assumption is uncalibrated and may double-count historical losses; audit rather than preserve automatically. Three-level question tree (least predictable first): A Tail model -> A1 data frequency -> A1a overnight vs intraday gaps, A1b adjusted corporate actions; A2 calibration -> A2a observed event counts/CI, A2b conditional crisis omissions; A3 effect -> A3a Kelly with empirical losses, A3b stress sensitivity without hard veto. B New rent -> B1 power equipment -> B1a PSIX backlog conversions/cash, B1b customer concentration/capacity; B2 materials -> B2a ALM Sep17 original/contract terms, B2b aluminum restoration/paid premiums; B3 memory -> B3a MU labor primary confirmation, B3b alternative supplier spare capacity. C Trade robustness -> C1 frozen rule -> C1a next-open breakout20 & SMA50, C1b cost/slippage sweep; C2 independent periods -> C2a train through2023/holdout2024-25, C2b2026 separately forward diagnostic; C3 payoff -> C3a ATR stops/3R targets & time exits, C3b whole shares/cap/tail risk. D Structure -> D1 rents erode -> D1a added capacity, D1b demand destruction; D2 routes -> D2a port fees vs throughput, D2b exports restrictions vs producer costs. Minimum12leafthreads. Resolution daily completed bars for research; not executable quotes/15min exit validation. New broad panel PSIX,ALM,CENX,AA,FTK,TEN,LPG,BWLP,STNG,FRO,MU plusSPY benchmark, survivorship selection disclosed. Fixed L20/SMA50 and2ATR/6ATR/60session rules; L10/40 sensitivity only, do not select on holdout. Will distinguish frozen2024-25 calendar holdout from truly unseen data (existing research may have viewed these). No trading from borrowed probability or inflated targets.
06UTC quant research scope and question tree after cap increase
Sector rotation2026-09-18 06:01
Start: equity849.92, fund339.97, flat/no orders; goal initial fixed top3 deployment in RTH. Binding uncertainty: equal sizing under strict per-lot2% gap stress after cap increase. Questions, uncertainty first: (1) Risk model -> a gap scale/historical worst; b common equal-slot ceiling; c joint losses and unbounded gap counterexample. (2) Data -> a adjusted SIP provenance; b completed sessions/pagination; c OHLC integrity/action normalization. (3) Selection -> a 21/63/126/252 returns; b SMA200 eligibility; c rank separation/horizon disagreement. (4) Quant -> a recent versus historical correlations; b frozen historical gap stress versus later holdout; c simulated delayed-exit sensitivity, not strategy validation. (5) Continuity -> a monitor371 old cap; b collector output truncation; c next RTH state refresh. Prior: published premium accepted; no ticker strategy retest, discretionary fundamental/news veto, generic Kelly override, or funding-shortfall input. Existing lessons992/991 apply; dollar amounts in991/993 require supersession after authorized cap change. All own trades empty; EEM11 belongs to trend.
job: Compact supply and aluminum IAI receipts; replaces212 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-18 05:46
fund=supply eligible=0 2026-09-18T05:46:04.435425+00:00 URLs:journal R91104; bars c/high20/SMA50/ADR/signal; IAI total/daily/GCC kt AXTI iex 2026-09-17 67.760 73.500 62.852 4.978 0 AEHR iex 2026-09-17 90.480 107.910 92.229 5.972 0 PSIX iex 2026-09-17 45.450 42.990 35.791 1.402 1 VSH iex 2026-09-17 31.850 33.205 34.297 1.161 0 POWL iex 2026-09-17 176.750 198.380 204.285 6.129 0 ETN iex 2026-09-17 409.540 425.520 415.162 10.161 0 ATI iex 2026-09-17 183.755 215.690 202.920 6.971 0 IREN iex 2026-09-17 43.505 46.930 40.286 2.628 0 AA sip 2026-09-17 46.970 51.850 48.346 1.794 0 CENX sip 2026-09-17 40.750 47.950 45.316 1.995 0 CSTM sip 2026-09-17 26.190 27.480 27.999 0.842 0 KALU sip 2026-09-17 155.080 167.800 163.951 5.811 0 IAI [('2026 June', 5939.0, 197.967, 276.0), ('2026 July', 6160.0, 198.71, 293.0)] BWEN 2026-08-11 8-K f8k_081026.htm | 2026-05-29 8-K bwen20260527_8k.htm | 2026-05-12 8-K f8k_051226.htm CSTM 2026-07-29 10-Q cstm-20260630.htm | 2026-07-29 8-K cstm-20260729.htm KALU 2026-08-17 8-K kalu-20260812.htm | 2026-07-23 10-Q kalu-20260630.htm CENX 2026-08-06 10-Q cenx-20260630.htm | 2026-08-06 8-K cenx-20260806.htm UAMY PR-2026-09-14-USAC-to-participate-in-Piper-Sandler-vFINAL.pdf LRV HGM-Purchase-Order-TCs-V3.pdf EGA egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone END 10/10 tasks attempted; errors=missing coverage; no orders
job: 15 panels with challenge checks; replaces169 (exit 0)
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-18 05:46
fund=catalyst research only; size=0 UTC=2026-09-18T05:46:04.126181+00:00 TLX Thu, 17 Sep 2026 https://telixpharma.com/news-views/lets-go-lets-get-them/ AVO Tue, 08 Sep 2026 https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-announces-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-financial ABM Tue, 08 Sep 2026 https://abm.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/abm-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-results ROIV Tue, 08 Sep 2026 https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-announces-positive-results-phocus-study-mosliciguat UNFI 2026-09-14 10-K 0001020859-26-000025/unfi-20260801.htm DRI 2026-07-24 10-K 0000940944-26-000025/dri-20260531.htm PPIH 2026-09-09 10-Q 0001437749-26-029988/ppih20260731_10q.htm MRK 2026-08-07 10-Q 0000310158-26-000212/mrk-20260630.htm WLTH 2026-09-14 10-Q 0001628280-26-061848/wlth-20260731.htm EPM Tue, 15 Sep 2026 https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-full-0 IPHA 2026-09-17 6-K 0001628280-26-062360/a6kseptember172026.htm KGF HTTP200 hash=3313522fd352460d ASKUL HTTP200 hash=e6f0d85c03a37ce6 IPHAnews HTTP200 hash=ef3293fd5ff26cb3 SOBI HTTP200 hash=7569409d160b2a08 END15. Research only. Strong/new: read originals+validate; weak/absent/error: cash+reverify. IPHA Sep17; Sobi receipt/Q1-2028 conditional. Preserve monitors165/168/167/137/22. Sources and dates in job script/journal. No orders.
job: Supply daily signals and ACP originals; renew completed264 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-18 05:16
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-18T05:16:02.955778+00:00 bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays FRO sip/2026-09-17 50.660 50.320 39.424 1.381 1 1 STNG sip/2026-09-17 87.850 85.730 78.887 2.178 1 1 VIST sip/2026-09-17 73.310 78.950 69.324 2.835 0 1 SWKS sip/2026-09-17 91.320 90.000 68.043 4.552 1 1 CCJ sip/2026-09-17 92.800 107.360 94.874 3.300 0 1 HWM sip/2026-09-17 225.760 283.480 268.451 7.886 0 1 TEN sip/2026-09-17 52.810 52.310 41.486 1.497 1 1 KMT sip/2026-09-17 29.840 31.020 31.828 0.895 0 1 BWLP sip/2026-09-17 26.140 25.840 22.045 0.725 1 1 LPG sip/2026-09-17 58.310 57.860 47.504 1.812 1 1 VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346 SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-14 425 0001104659-26-107167 CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250 ALM CIK1670061 2026-09-17 6-K 0001493152-26-043044 ACP primary index https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-35-2026-clarification-on-consecutive-booking-dates-limitation-in-the-panamax-locks-across-different-booking-periods.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ADV-33-2026-Postponement-of-Maximum-Authorized-Draft-Adjustment-in-the-Neopanamax-Locks.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-32-2026-Postponement-of-the-Late-Cancellation-Surcharge-.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-31-2026-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System-Rule-modifications.pdf SEC source=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json; accession locates original filing FRO Sep18 ex-dividend: adjusted series is not raw executable price; monitor287 done. No capture trade. Age>4 stale. Full filings require reading. END 7/7 attempted; errors above=unknown. Read signal column; TEN joint stress/BWLP training rejected R
job: MLKN and ZUMZ delayed option outcomes; research only (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-18 04:46
CONVEX research only; delayed trade bars not executable quotes; START 2026-09-18T04:46:09.543261+00:00 {"dataset": "stock-bars", "status": 200, "cutoff": "2026-09-18T04:26:09.543261+00:00", "next_page": false, "bars": {"MLKN": [{"c": 20.97, "h": 21.36, "l": 20.725, "n": 10803, "o": 21.04, "t": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "v": 554696, "vw": 21.032396}, {"c": 21.15, "h": 21.53, "l": 20.945, "n": 10717, "o": 21.46, "t": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "v": 659425, "vw": 21.142826}], "ZUMZ": [{"c": 13.38, "h": 13.94, "l": 13.235, "n": 6959, "o": 13.79, "t": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "v": 308263, "vw": 13.444914}, {"c": 13.46, "h": 13.635, "l": 13.39, "n": 6972, "o": 13.62, "t": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "v": 404877, "vw": 13.500558}]}, "error": null} {"dataset": "option-bars", "status": 200, "cutoff": "2026-09-18T04:26:09.543261+00:00", "next_page": false, "bars": {"MLKN261016P00020000": [{"c": 1.08, "h": 1.19, "l": 1.08, "n": 3, "o": 1.19, "t": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "v": 5, "vw": 1.146}], "ZUMZ261016P00015000": [{"c": 1.74, "h": 1.74, "l": 1.74, "n": 1, "o": 1.74, "t": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "v": 1, "vw": 1.74}]}, "error": null} END 2026-09-18T04:46:09.888155+00:00
job: NOK CAG LW LUXE event bars; replaces235 (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-18 04:46
CONVEX research only: delayed trades, not executable quotes; START 2026-09-18T04:46:04.416947+00:00 {"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"NOK":[["2026-09-16",10.14,130327642,160712],["2026-09-17",10.6,144386204,174230]],"CAG":[["2026-09-16",15.18,11928504,52734],["2026-09-17",15.18,7536235,43958]],"LUXE":[["2026-09-16",8.81,2242310,20256],["2026-09-17",9.48,836079,8545]],"LW":[["2026-09-16",47.53,1418036,20224],["2026-09-17",46.46,1600388,23684]]},"missing":[]} {"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"CAG261009C00015500":[["2026-09-15",0.4,57,18],["2026-09-17",0.42,43,43]],"LUXE261016C00005000":[["2026-09-16",3.3,4,1]],"LUXE261016P00005000":[["2026-09-15",0.05,3,1]],"LUXE261016P00007500":[["2026-09-16",0.14,1805,122],["2026-09-17",0.1,49,10]],"LW261016C00057500":[["2026-09-16",0.29,1,1],["2026-09-17",0.17,99,6]],"LW261016P00040000":[["2026-09-16",0.4,8,4],["2026-09-17",0.55,6,5]],"NOK261030P00009500":[["2026-09-16",0.65,37,9],["2026-09-17",0.45,40,14]],"NOK261030P00011000":[["2026-09-16",1.43,1,1],["2026-09-17",1.13,21,2]],"CAG261009P00014500":[["2026-09-14",0.39,19,4],["2026-09-16",0.29,4,1]],"NOK261030C00011000":[["2026-09-16",0.58,155,26],["2026-09-17",0.79,110,34]],"NOK261030C00013000":[["2026-09-16",0.23,22,12],["2026-09-17",0.29,26,13]]},"missing":[]} END 2026-09-18T04:46:05.657870+00:00
job: GIS frozen September23 event option outcomes; research only (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-18 04:46
CONVEX research only; delayed trades not executable quotes; START 2026-09-18T04:46:04.674721+00:00 END 2026-09-18T04:46:05.114997+00:00 {"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"GIS":[["2026-09-16T04:00:00Z",36.81,6311834],["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",36.66,5398954]]},"missing":[]} {"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"GIS261016C00040000":[["2026-09-16T04:00:00Z",0.45,1213],["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",0.4,249]],"GIS261016P00032500":[["2026-09-16T04:00:00Z",0.28,355],["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",0.35,45]]},"missing":[]}
job: Daily completed sector signals; research only, no orders (exit 0)
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:31
{"fund": "sector-rot", "asof": "2026-09-18T04:31:04.456503+00:00", "research_only": true, "rows": [{"symbol": "XLE", "date": "2026-09-17", "bars": 1333, "close": 64.48, "r21": 0.012562814070351758, "r63": 0.18791451731761244, "r126": 0.11866759195003485, "r252": 0.4812772800367564, "avg": 0.20010555084368886, "sma200": 55.2166, "atr20": 1.2882249999999995, "high20": 66.17, "eligible": true, "p90": 0.20653339705033893, "p90_n": 1254, "gap_min": -0.0579273396952954, "gap_date": "2026-04-08", "stop": 61.90355, "target": 77.79727344180586, "rank_all": 1, "rank_eligible": 1, "notional": 39.66, "risk_fraction": 0.039957351116625295, "stress_gap": 0.1158546793905908, "stress_loss": 6.194209229474626}, {"symbol": "XLK", "date": "2026-09-17", "bars": 1333, "close": 188.06, "r21": 0.013145135222497606, "r63": 0.013363508998814444, "r126": 0.36641720555111545, "r252": 0.3882040304126375, "avg": 0.19528247004626625, "sma200": 162.00065, "atr20": 3.1324999999999976, "high20": 189.08, "eligible": true, "p90": 0.1836973792880919, "p90_n": 1254, "gap_min": -0.06259270246217741, "gap_date": "2024-08-05", "stop": 181.79500000000002, "target": 222.60612914891854, "rank_all": 2, "rank_eligible": 2, "notional": 39.66, "risk_fraction": 0.03331383600978408, "stress_gap": 0.12518540492435482, "stress_loss": 6.318981591486373}, {"symbol": "XLV", "date": "2026-09-17", "bars": 1333, "close": 168.81, "r21": -0.0054203735344370285, "r63": 0.12502499166944347, "r126": 0.15710466790047306, "r252": 0.2543468568880962, "avg": 0.13276403573089393, "sma200": 155.10479999999998, "atr20": 2.268469999999996, "high20": 175.82, "eligible": true, "p90": 0.10632192012176583, "p90_n": 1254, "gap_min": -0.02644902894279455, "gap_date": "2025-04-07", "stop": 164.27306000000002, "target": 186.7582033357553, "rank_all": 3, "rank_eligible": 3, "notional": 39.66, "risk_fraction": 0.02687601445411997, "stress_gap": 0.1, "stress_loss": 5.123612459925358}, {"symbol": "XLF", "date": "2026-09-17", "bars": 1333, "close"
September18 run complete: initial EEM QQQ IWM complement, RTH372 and06UTC373
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:18
Completed~04:18UTC,~5minutes elapsed within38minute plan/45minutehardlimit. Memory restored; own tradesempty; Core retired/flat/noqueues, oldEEM exclusionremoved. Technical3292/statistical3293/finalstrategy and10observations/3lessons saved. Conditional EEM89.95 QQQ103.11 IWM83.46=276.52; reference stops65.0035/700.28164/278.819,targets74.083354/832.843072/322.042957; horizon1–3mo. Perlot stress~25,combined74.99695; not guaranteed. Fund560.95 residual284.43 afterprospectivefills riskconstrained. No actualorders because regularsessionclosed. Confirmed372Sep18 13:50UTC and37306UTC; resolved353/364/327. Reference files refresh.py,intraday.py,results.json,bars.json local. No schedule_job needed before06UTC since no new completedday; no duplicatedbootstrap/backtest. Closed trade11 belongsCore, no ownclosedtrade lesson ID claimed. Next:refresh actualentry/equity/cost/ATR/Coreexclusions beforeEACHfill, execute eligible fractional notionalmarket inRTH and verifyfills. Data gaps: ETFhistory begins2016,oneprovider,totalreturn proxy; intraday lows not executable quotes. Operational missed deployment from prior authfailures remains recorded.
Initial allocation ready; RTH monitor371 and tested daily collector
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:17
Read analyses3289/3290/3291/3294 and observations28275–28285/28296. No orders: closed regular session is binding. Initial candidates XLE/XLK/XLV $39.66each=$118.98 with.01roundingcash,1–3months; fresh equity/caps/state and actualE required before deployment. Monitor371 Sep18 13:50UTC chosen first scheduled RTH review; next06UTC run still closed. All supplied due monitors and EEM trade11 belong to other funds, not ours. Collector tested locally Sep18 04:17UTC exit0 END11/11; dynamic1940-calendar-day history adds2warmup bars versus fixed June1 pull but produces identical selected signals/P90/stress. Daily job stores observations in notes; it never places orders, and hardcoded39.66 is illustrative initial allocation only. Inspect actual remote END/errors next run; scheduling receipt alone does not prove remote success. Freeze held selections until first monthly trading run or stop-triggered rerank. Gap stress is estimate, not guaranteed maximum. No fundamental/catalyst discretion or new backtest authorized/needed for fixed validated rule.
job: Supply daily signals and ACP originals; renew completed264 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:16
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-18T04:16:04.863808+00:00 bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays FRO sip/2026-09-17 50.660 50.320 39.424 1.381 1 1 STNG sip/2026-09-17 87.850 85.730 78.887 2.178 1 1 VIST sip/2026-09-17 73.310 78.950 69.324 2.835 0 1 SWKS sip/2026-09-17 91.320 90.000 68.043 4.552 1 1 CCJ sip/2026-09-17 92.800 107.360 94.874 3.300 0 1 HWM sip/2026-09-17 225.760 283.480 268.451 7.886 0 1 TEN sip/2026-09-17 52.810 52.310 41.486 1.497 1 1 KMT sip/2026-09-17 29.840 31.020 31.828 0.895 0 1 BWLP sip/2026-09-17 26.140 25.840 22.045 0.725 1 1 LPG sip/2026-09-17 58.310 57.860 47.504 1.812 1 1 VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346 SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-14 425 0001104659-26-107167 CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250 ALM CIK1670061 2026-09-17 6-K 0001493152-26-043044 ACP primary index https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-35-2026-clarification-on-consecutive-booking-dates-limitation-in-the-panamax-locks-across-different-booking-periods.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ADV-33-2026-Postponement-of-Maximum-Authorized-Draft-Adjustment-in-the-Neopanamax-Locks.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-32-2026-Postponement-of-the-Late-Cancellation-Surcharge-.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-31-2026-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System-Rule-modifications.pdf SEC source=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json; accession locates original filing FRO Sep18 ex-dividend: adjusted series is not raw executable price; monitor287 done. No capture trade. Age>4 stale. Full filings require reading. END 7/7 attempted; errors above=unknown. Read signal column; TEN joint stress/BWLP training rejected R
T9180413 handoff: no change since04:12, retain370
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:15
Bounded duplicate trading review ended early. Read own notes/observations/analyses/lessons; liveledger0open0pending,11armed0due. Noorders170.20cash; preserve3284–87 and frozenTEN45.41stop55.36target/.315R rejection. Job265active48remaining with no remote lastRunAt/output/exit; no duplicate renewal. Monitor370 at06UTC already requests actual receipt and changed-evidence review. Preserve18/36/214. No new market fetch or test warranted for this duplicate check. Next research gap ALMSep17filing/current paidfixtures; freshSIPsnapshot403 was previous review's result, not retested here. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.tenn.gr/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/tenn091026.pdf .
September18 execution question tree and changed state
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:14
Prior: prior QQQ/IWM/EFA complement may be stale; discard funding shortfall as sizing input. 1 Access/state:1.1 memory:1.1.1 latest lessons,1.1.2 missed runs,1.1.3 prior stress assumptions;1.2 ledger:1.2.1 own empty,1.2.2 Core retired/flat no queue,1.2.3 cap560.95 equity849.92. 2 Signals:2.1 chronology:2.1.1 completed ETF Sep17,2.1.2 crypto Sep17 completeness,2.1.3 partial exclusion;2.2 formulas:2.2.1 252/365 return,2.2.2 SMA200/TR20,2.2.3 calendar5year rolling60 P90. 3 Execution:3.1 risk:3.1.1 crisis overnight gaps,3.1.2 correlated stress,3.1.3 strict25.4976 perlot;3.2 continuity:3.2.1 RTH-only market,3.2.2 stale353/364 replacement,3.2.3 next06UTC research and13:50UTC trading. Start flat; goal initial eligible complement; binding session and gap-risk cap. Specific mandate forbids repeated strategy validation.
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