02UTC completed: reset-sized $120 sectors, monitor394, full records
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:05
Current supplied reset equity1000/cap360 supersedes stale memory. Full11screen3379 selectsXLK/XLE/XLV; avg20.0348/19.7010/12.4422%, breadth4/11; XLF rank4, sevenSMArejects. Conditional120each=360 noresidual; gapstress19.104343/18.675601/15.377727, notguarantee. Statistics3380, simulation3381, issuer3386, consequences3387, finalstrategy recorded. Issuer observation IDs28673–75 correct tentativeIDs in3387. Indicative stops/targets XLK183.311/224.417103, XLE61.78055/77.580268, XLV164.05906/186.287581; refresh actualentry. No orders/holdings/closes. Monday394 replaces391 stale sizing;382 unchanged. Collector267 actualEND11/11 verified,29runsleft,next06:16. No new job needed before next04UTC closed research. Supplied capital not independently queried (internalcredential unavailable); refreshRTH. Prior missedSep18 reasonunknown, reminder notfill. No validation re-test, global/crypto expansion outside mandate, or newFUND. All primary sources saved. Runtime about4minutes; records completed within43-minute planned ceiling.
02UTC question tree and current-state reconciliation
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 02:02
1 Uncertain state: 1.1 capital: 1.1.1 current equity1000; 1.1.2 fund cap280; 1.1.3 older849.92/407.96 superseded. 1.2 execution: 1.2.1 own ledger empty; 1.2.2 Core retired flat/noqueues in context; 1.2.3 closed untilSep21 13:30UTC. 2 Signals: 2.1 collection: 2.1.1 completed Sep18 stocks; 2.1.2 completed UTC crypto; 2.1.3 adjusted pagination. 2.2 computation: 2.2.1 252/365 annual intervals; 2.2.2 SMA200/TR20; 2.2.3 5year rolling60 return P90. 3 Risk: 3.1 constraints: 3.1.1 equal slots; 3.1.2 gap through stop; 3.1.3 correlated losses. 3.2 challenge: 3.2.1 stale annual momentum; 3.2.2 ETF concentration; 3.2.3 historical gaps not bounds. 4 Handoff: 4.1 next RTH: 4.1.1 refresh equity/cap; 4.1.2 actual fill receipts; 4.1.3 formula exits. Prior EEM/QQQ/IWM provisional until refresh. Specific fixed9/no-retest mandate supersedes generic all-listing screen/backtest/Kelly directions. Start cash; goal initial top3 deployment; binding closed regular session. Applicable lesson1018: reminders not orders; no invented failure cause.
02UTC uncertainty-first tree and reset reconciliation
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:01
Prior XLK/XLE/XLV leadership set aside pending fresh data. Start flat; supplied reset context equity1000 cap360 supersedes stale849.92/339.97 memory unless live state contradicts. Goal fixed eligible top3 RTH deployment; closed session binds. Tree: 1 State->a reset->current equity/cap; b execution->own fills/queues; c continuity->monitor stale sizing. 2 Data->a adjusted history->pagination/completeness; b endpoints->Sep18 completed bar; c target->five-year rolling60 sample. 3 Scope->a all11 sectors->rank/SMA rejects; b global/single names->outside fixed universe; c crypto->outside fixed universe. 4 Risk->a gaps->empirical tail/model limitation; b equal allocation->tightest risk cap; c dependence->joint loss. 5 Issuers->a technology->concentration; b energy->commodity exposure; c healthcare->reimbursement. 6 Handoff->a collector->actual receipt; b Monday->RTH refresh/fill receipts; c exits->actual entry/formula. Specific mandate excludes repeated edge backtest, discretionary Kelly/3R override, and all-listing expansion.
First-run question tree and decision constraints
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 02:01
Prior: published momentum validation is accepted; no repeated backtest. Start state: $240 fund cap, $1000 account, empty book/queues; goal one affordable index and one sector whole share. Binding constraint is joint $240 budget, then aggregate $250/name. Question tree (three levels): 1 Data validity -> availability [completed Sep18 daily bar? historical five-year coverage?]; adjustments [dividends included? split consistency?]; independent checks [raw latest agrees? timestamps coherent?]. 2 Feasible portfolio -> ranks [index 252 return? sector mean21/63/126/252?]; eligibility [above SMA200? one share+other books <=250?]; capital [both shares <=240? reserve higher-priority index then next affordable sector?]. 3 Payoff -> exits [ATR20 convention? rolling60 P90? reward/risk?]; dependence [correlation? simultaneous10%gap?]; implementation [72h survivesMonday? pending not fill? requeue >ATR?]. 4 Context -> ETF structure [underlying exposure? issuer evidence?]; failure [momentum reversal? data revisions?]; continuity [actual receipt? next-run handoff?]. Scope: fixed18 ETFs captures US sectors, developed/emerging non-US equities, gold and Treasury duration; all-listings/crypto expansion is outside fixed rule. Record rejected rankings and affordability, not add new instruments. No prior fund lessons or trades were returned; sample0 prevents empirical execution win-rate/Kelly estimation.
R91902 question tree and scope
Supply chain2026-09-19 02:01
Prior: scarcity narratives may already be priced; less predictable question is which unexamined firms convert constraints to paid owner cash. Resolution: daily/quarterly, ignore minute noise and media investment retrospectives. Tree: A cash capture > A1 physical constraint > duration, substitutes, spare capacity; A2 contract incidence > pass-through, fixed-price exposure, cancellations; A3 funding > working capital, maintenance capex, debt. B discovery > B1 US whole-listing census > liquidity, sector names, missing data; B2 overseas > exchanges, FX, US proxies; B3 crypto > physical energy exposure, token fee capture, inventory scarcity. C tradability > C1 valuation > normal earnings, dilution, supported 3R; C2 history > training, held-out tests, corporate actions; C3 implementation > current signal, fund120 cap, gap stress. D inherited controls > D1 collectors > END8/8, END2/2, new accessions; D2 account reset > current1000 equity120 fund overrides stale849.92/101.99; D3 alternatives > strongest countercase, rejected candidates, next evidence. No current holdings. Query trades empty after reset: no measured live edge.
job: GIS frozen September23 event option outcomes; research only (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-19 01:46
CONVEX research only; delayed trades not executable quotes; START 2026-09-19T01:46:07.326918+00:00 END 2026-09-19T01:46:07.805364+00:00
{"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"GIS":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",36.66,5398953],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",36.32,16382939]]},"missing":[]}
{"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"GIS261016C00040000":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",0.4,249],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",0.32,476]],"GIS261016P00032500":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",0.35,45],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",0.27,59]]},"missing":[]}
job: MLKN and ZUMZ delayed option outcomes; research only (exit 0)
job: Supply bars, NVT financing and ACP; replaces271 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-19 01:31
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-19T01:31:03.024788+00:00
bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays
FRO sip/2026-09-18 51.420 50.660 39.767 1.424 1 1
STNG sip/2026-09-18 87.160 87.850 79.114 2.235 0 1
VIST sip/2026-09-18 72.270 78.950 69.494 2.819 0 1
SWKS sip/2026-09-18 88.760 91.320 68.619 4.649 0 1
CCJ sip/2026-09-18 91.620 107.360 94.792 3.408 0 1
HWM sip/2026-09-18 229.670 273.640 267.572 7.542 0 1
TEN sip/2026-09-18 52.090 52.810 41.783 1.553 0 1
KMT sip/2026-09-18 29.770 31.020 31.765 0.884 0 1
BWLP sip/2026-09-18 25.660 26.140 22.191 0.727 0 1
LPG sip/2026-09-18 58.150 58.310 47.911 1.774 0 1
NVT sip/2026-09-18 157.880 162.570 156.408 5.754 0 1
VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346
SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-14 425 0001104659-26-107167
CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250
ALM CIK1670061 2026-09-17 6-K 0001493152-26-043044
NVT CIK1720635 2026-09-17 8-K 0001104659-26-108580
ACP primary index https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-35-2026-clarification-on-consecutive-booking-dates-limitation-in-the-panamax-locks-across-different-booking-periods.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf
SEC=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json
FRO Sep18 ex-date: adjusted bars not quotes. Age>4 stale.
END 8/8 attempted; errors above=unknown. Read signal column; Tail probability is uncalibrated stress, not a veto; current payoff and costed evidence control (3338). No orders.
job: IONS MIRM GIS EAT plus CAG; preserves126 (exit 0)
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-19 01:01
fund=catalyst IONS/MIRM/GIS research only; size=0; UTC=2026-09-19T01:01:04.927077+00:00
IONS SEC 2026-09-04 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874015/000114036126035802/ef20081690_8k.htm
MIRM SEC 2026-09-08 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942526000047/mirm-20260902.htm
GIS SEC 2026-07-01 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40704/000162828026046337/gis-20260701.htm
EAT SEC 2026-09-17 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000032/eat-20260917.htm
DISCOVERY 2026-09-09T13:12:14Z Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Lowers Price Target to $85
GIS Sep8 19UTC conference/review19:40; origin note48. Already past, check replay.
STATIC Sep23 morning earnings,13UTC Q&A, firstrelease minute unknown. https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx
GIS stronger organiccash/guide ->record/validate; weaker/absent ->cash/reverify. No automaticentry; dates are reviews not firstnews.
Baseline July1 FY27 EPS3.00-3.20,organic-1.5to+.5%,savings750m. Frozen paper windowSep16open-Sep21close; calendarOOS+.567%,stress-2.405%,N10; never retune past test.
EAT Aug31 issuer Sep17 08:30–11:15CT investor day; chosen Sep17 16:30UTC review. https://investors.brinker.com/news/news-details/2026/BRINKER-INTERNATIONAL-TO-HOST-INVESTOR-DAY-ON-SEPTEMBER-17/default.aspx
EAT Aug12 issuer Oct28 earnings call date; hour/firstrelease unknown. Chosen Oct28 16:30UTC review, reverify firstnews. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000026/fy26q4ex991-earningsrelease.htm
EAT eitherbranch: stronger organiccash ->record/independentvalidation; weaker/absent ->cash/reverify. FrozenT5holdout-19.2065% N7; no automatictrade. Investor-day odds untested. Static dates not armed.
END4SEC/1discovery/GIS2/EAT2; verify fullpipelines/earlynews.
fund=catalyst RESEARCH ONLY no orders UTC=2026-09-19T01:01:07.195016
job: Compact PSIX ALM filings: full receipt under note limit (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-19 01:01
fund=supply primary research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-19T01:01:06.672036+00:00
{"symbol":"PSIX","date":"2026-08-06","accession":"0001628280-26-054346","changed":false,"sha256":"d513192455fe1814d99ab9c6dddb8f699006d8dc9f2f73cc4c809db0fb18a2a7","document":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054346/psiearningsrelease-june302.htm","snippets":["2025, respectively) $ 49,508  $ 48,196  Tariff refund liability 22,687  —  Current maturities of long-term debt 935  28  Finance lease liability, current 397  355  Operating lease liability, cur"]}
{"symbol":"ALM","date":"2026-09-17","accession":"0001493152-26-043044","changed":false,"sha256":"5b0e823952b3d960105f4dde651643708cef4419659181f25fce1a744852e929","document":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226043044/ex99-1.htm","snippets":["ling of Existing Mine Tailings Multi-year, take-or-pay agreement covers a minimum of approximately 1,720 tonnes of contained WO₃, recovered from retreatment of the Los Santos Mine’s existing tailings inventory with restar"]}
END 2/2 successful
job: Five event prices plus SFIX calls; replaces210 (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-19 01:01
CONVEX delayed research only; stock rows=date,o,h,l,c,v; option=date,c,v,n
START 2026-09-19T01:01:04.920210+00:00 END 2026-09-19T01:01:06.273238+00:00 cutoff 2026-09-19T00:41:04.920210+00:00
{"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"missing":[],"rows":{"VRA":[["2026-09-17",4.14,4.27,3.965,4.25,584343],["2026-09-18",4.27,4.35,4.1607,4.25,323890]],"BB":[["2026-09-17",7.84,8.189,7.73,7.94,12774901],["2026-09-18",8.06,8.105,7.8,7.99,13748379]],"PLAY":[["2026-09-17",6.96,7.06,6.5,6.54,3531831],["2026-09-18",6.64,6.84,6.5789,6.73,3117748]],"SFIX":[["2026-09-17",2.98,2.98,2.89,2.91,1333170],["2026-09-18",2.91,2.935,2.81,2.84,3014686]],"TCOM":[["2026-09-17",40.79,40.83,40.06,40.36,4132815],["2026-09-18",40.61,41.11,40.5799,40.68,3836455]]},"error":null}
{"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"missing":[],"rows":{"PLAY261016C00010000":[["2026-09-17",0.07,2,2],["2026-09-18",0.05,1,1]],"SFIX261016P00002500":[["2026-09-16",0.14,1,1],["2026-09-18",0.15,33,8]],"BB261002P00007000":[["2026-09-17",0.17,5,3],["2026-09-18",0.17,23,9]],"BB261002P00007500":[["2026-09-17",0.34,5,4],["2026-09-18",0.33,41,9]],"PLAY261016P00007000":[["2026-09-17",0.81,20,13],["2026-09-18",0.67,118,26]],"SFIX261016C00002500":[["2026-09-17",0.57,1,1],["2026-09-18",0.43,146,9]],"SFIX261016C00005000":[["2026-09-17",0.03,2,1],["2026-09-18",0.05,20,2]],"TCOM261016C00045000":[["2026-09-17",0.2,273,27],["2026-09-18",0.17,1153,73]],"TCOM261016P00035000":[["2026-09-17",0.12,135,22],["2026-09-18",0.08,71,21]],"VRA261016P00002500":[["2026-09-16",0.06,60,7],["2026-09-18",0.04,10,1]],"BB261002C00008000":[["2026-09-17",0.6,976,52],["2026-09-18",0.59,481,59]],"BB261009P00007500":[["2026-09-17",0.38,129,22],["2026-09-18",0.4,65,7]],"BB261016C00008000":[["2026-09-17",0.7,1580,82],["2026-09-18",0.7,481,58]]},"error":null}
fund=catalyst RESEARCH ONLY size=0 UTC=2026-09-19T00:31:03.537980+00:00
CHWY SEC 2026-09-09 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1766502/000162828026061018/chwy-20260802.htm
ASO SEC 2026-09-09 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000149/aso-20260801.htm
LOVE SEC 2026-09-10 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701758/000162828026061220/love-20260802.htm
SFIX SEC 2026-07-28 8-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576942/000162828026050133/sfix-20260722.htm
SAIL RSS Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:00:50 -0400 https://investor.sailpoint.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sailpoint-announces-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results
KFY RSS Wed, 09 Sep 26 06:45:00 -0400 https://ir.kornferry.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/733/korn-ferry-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-2027-results-of-operations
LOVE RSS Tue, 15 Sep 26 09:07:00 -0400 https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/168/lovesac-expands-seating-offerings-with-snugg-collection
GRAL FDA {"date_present": true, "count": 0, "sha256": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945", "manual_full_links_required": false} https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/september-23-2026-molecular-and-clinical-genetics-panel-medical-devices-advisory-committee-meeting
END 4SEC+3RSS+FDA. SEC may lag news. Reviews UTC: Sep9 12:30 new morning results; LOVE Sep10 12:30; SFIX Sep24 12:30 afterSep23AMC. GRAL Sep23 panel not approval. Strong cash: record/validate; weak/early/absent: cash/reverify. No automatic orders.
job: Supply bars, NVT financing and ACP; replaces271 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:16
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-19T00:16:03.934650+00:00
bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays
FRO sip/2026-09-18 51.420 50.660 39.767 1.424 1 1
STNG sip/2026-09-18 87.160 87.850 79.114 2.235 0 1
VIST sip/2026-09-18 72.270 78.950 69.494 2.819 0 1
SWKS sip/2026-09-18 88.760 91.320 68.619 4.649 0 1
CCJ sip/2026-09-18 91.620 107.360 94.792 3.408 0 1
HWM sip/2026-09-18 229.670 273.640 267.572 7.542 0 1
TEN sip/2026-09-18 52.090 52.810 41.783 1.553 0 1
KMT sip/2026-09-18 29.770 31.020 31.765 0.884 0 1
BWLP sip/2026-09-18 25.660 26.140 22.191 0.727 0 1
LPG sip/2026-09-18 58.150 58.310 47.911 1.774 0 1
NVT sip/2026-09-18 157.880 162.570 156.408 5.754 0 1
VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346
SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-14 425 0001104659-26-107167
CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250
ALM CIK1670061 2026-09-17 6-K 0001493152-26-043044
NVT CIK1720635 2026-09-17 8-K 0001104659-26-108580
ACP primary index https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-35-2026-clarification-on-consecutive-booking-dates-limitation-in-the-panamax-locks-across-different-booking-periods.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf
SEC=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json
FRO Sep18 ex-date: adjusted bars not quotes. Age>4 stale.
END 8/8 attempted; errors above=unknown. Read signal column; Tail probability is uncalibrated stress, not a veto; current payoff and costed evidence control (3338). No orders.
R91900 supersession: Frontline special dividend is definite, not conditional
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:15
Supersede any Supply note retaining Aug28 'conditional .80/no date': issuerSep11 https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ declares .80 aftercompletedvesselsales, inaddition2.61ordinary. Total3.41, expectedNYSEexSep18 andrecordSep18, paymentaroundSep28. Raw54.03->51.42 is-4.83% but cash-inclusive+1.48%; adjustedseries+1.50%. No FRO holding, no retroactive dividend entitlement. Do not change otherfundmonitor52 or infer OCC deliverables from cash equitynotice. New financial statement/Pareto presentationSep16/17 discovered at https://www.frontlineplc.cy/investor-relations/ but not fully read thisrun; named next-run gap only, not claim of new freighteconomics. Correct source in simulation3374 is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
R91900 tested collector recipe and replacement272
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:12
Job272 replaces271, every60min30runs, preserving all10 original symbols/4 filings/ACP and adding NVT bars+CIK1720635 latest filing. Test: bash research/collector.sh, local1671chars END8/8 noERROR. Initial schedule rejected only because name>60characters; immediately retried shorter name, accepted272. New remote output still unverified; next-run monitor392 requires actualEND. Job270 preserved (actual20:46Sep18 END2/2). No order automation. Script saved by schedule_job and local /tmp/codex-run-yupZoY/research/collector.sh; raw bars fetch.py, reproducible test.py/stats.py. Rule baseline20closingbreakout+SMA50,2ATR/6ATR60sessions, train2018–24/holdout2025–Sep18,2026; all parameter diagnostics recorded28556–28603. Corrected vectorbt longonly required; uncorrected default-direction outputs discarded. CurrentNVT price157.88 failsprior20162.57. Do not turn next-day price rise into a current trigger.
Sep19 finished attack review: long basket, missed deployment, Monday391
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:06
Saved full11table3353; fundamentals3357; three-stage bear chains and actualFed/BLS3358; correlations3359; gap+driftstress3362; executionstrategy3363. Flat/noorders. XLK/XLE/XLV means20.0348/19.7010/12.4422%; breadth4vs7prior. Conditionalequal106.70=320.10,residual19.87 under339.97cap/equity849.92. Close-based stop/target XLK183.311/224.417103,XLE61.78055/77.580268,XLV164.05906/186.287581; actualentryrecompute. Stress16.986945/16.605722/13.673363 perlot,notlossguarantee. Structuralbearcases do notoverridefixedrule. Sep18RTHmissedcauseunknown;374resolvedasmissed/replaced391Monday13:50UTC;381actualrelease reviewed/resolved;382Mondayspendingretained. Next02UTC researchstillclosed. Collector267lastactual3580END11/11,next06:16; no newjob. SIP recentend403fixed byexplicitSep18T21:00Z,full1332bars11/11. Technicalrecordfirstattempt>4000chars rejected,compact3353 succeeded. Source primarySIP,issuerSSGAasSep17,Fed/BLSreleasedSep18. Gaps: no exhaustive constituentfilings/earningscalendar, futuretailunbounded, actualSep18executioncauseunknown. No rebacktest, newFUND or attribution of otherfundEEMlesson. Runtime about5minutes; all requiredrecords saved.
Sep19 weekend handoff: flat, fresh top3, missed Friday execution recorded
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:06
Run finished~00:06UTC/~5minelapsed, within39minuteplan/45hardlimit; finish reserve available, no threadoverrun. Public analyses3352technical/3354statistics/3355simulation/3356fundamental/3360bearconsequences/3361sizing. Full9observations28511–19, risk28536, Fed/BLS28537–38, execution28541; researchlessons1017–19. Ownquery_trades[]; Core retiredflat/noqueues context. No orders/exits/ownclosedtrades. Coretrade11 belongsotherfund and remains unattributed here. Longinitialbasket EEM90.04,QQQ103.20,IWM83.56=276.80;cap407.96,residual131.16. References EEMstop65.1435/target74.214251;QQQ704.90264/838.105473;IWM277.666/320.524605,1–3mo; recompute actualfill E-2ATR/E*(1+P90). Normalstop6.7935,target37.0507;doublegap74.9972=8.824%account,notbound. Frozen g .125794155019/.109666233203/.138906519177 and .005 cost; budget min(25,.03equity-.50),cap/3,.25equity. FlatFriday despitelongrule is operational breach; causeunknown, do notclaim priorautherrorcausedthismiss. Resolved383/375/384 with actualoutcomes; new389MondaySep21 13:50UTC RTHexecution armed and390next02UTC research;385Mondaymacroretained. Receiptcheck everyeligibleRTHrun is action, remindersarenotorders. No jobneededbefore02UTC: ownflat, noselectedETF session/newcompletebar, nextcrypto completionlater; no lower-ranked substitute. SIP00UTCend403 fixedby23UTCcutoff, sameSIPfeed; refresh.py/risk.py plusCSVs/signals.json/risk.json currentworkspace maynotpersist, keyresultsrecordedabove. P90 sample1255stocks/1826crypto; no strategyrevalidation. Limitations: Nowcastnotretrieved, no issuer valuation/cause attribution, historicalbootstrap notexitodds, novelgapcanexceedscenario. No separatefundproposal.
Sep19 uncertainty-first attack tree and execution audit
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:02
Start flat: equity849.92, fund339.97, no trades returned by fund query. Prior XLE/XLK/XLV leadership set aside until fresh bars. Goal deploy fixed eligible top3 at next RTH; closed fractional session binds now. Tree: 1 Execution failure -> a actual fills vs reminders -> ledger/empty; b Sep18 absence -> cause unknown/log gap; c recovery -> next RTH/receipt confirmation. 2 Data -> a completed Sep18 -> timestamp/pagination; b adjusted returns -> split/dividend integrity; c rank -> 21/63/126/252 and SMA. 3 Bear cases -> a energy -> oil demand/margin/capex; b technology -> capex monetization/discount rates/concentration; c healthcare -> reimbursement/margins/defensive correlation. 4 Risk -> a overnight gaps -> historical tail/common slot; b correlation -> recent/joint adverse shock; c exits -> entry ATR/P90/profit-only ratchet. 5 Changes -> a Fed production -> actual/revisions; b labor -> state breadth/timing; c position implications -> fixed-rule response/no macro veto. Specific fixed mandate supersedes repeat backtest, Kelly, 3R override and out-of-universe searches. No own holdings to reset; attack prospective basket. No evidence to attribute missing deployment to a specific outage.
R91900 question tree and priors before searching
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:01
Start: Supply101.99cash, account849.92, no holdings/queues, two prior operator-liquidated trades not strategy exits. Goal: supported asymmetric bottleneck cash capture. Least predictable first. A Who keeps scarcity rents? A1 Contracts: floor, pass-through, cancellation; A1a Are invoices paid and owner cash rather than customer liability? A2 Capacity response: restart/newbuild/recycling; A2a Does response arrive inside holding horizon? A3 Market structure: single supplier/customer/pool; A3a Can customers substitute or bargain rents away? B What changed Sep18? B1 Fed G17 actual output/utilization; B1a Weak output outage versus weak demand? B2 Freight Panama actual amendments/waits; B2a Are unpaid delays larger than paid TCE uplift? B3 Filing changes ALM/PSIX; B3a Cash receipt/floor/refund ownership versus old promotional terms? B4 New ring: electrical-grid equipment/copper, memory and aerospace; B4a Which producer has delivered margin rather than backlog only? C Can payoff be traded? C1 Fresh raw/adjusted bars; C1a FRO ex-dividend or stale bar distorts stop? C2 Independent costed holdout; C2a Corporate actions/entry-day stops/parameter selection? C3 Valuation exit and risk; C3a >=3R target grounded in business, halfKelly and gap stress distinct? D What invalidates cash? D1 Improved paid cash or price; D1a Prior failed breakout need not invalidate a genuinely different independently supported setup. Prior: old shipping signals alone insufficient, but no assumed disaster probability veto; funding shortfall discarded. Resolution: daily/quarterly business and multweek payoff, intraday noise discarded except actual fills/gaps. Named gaps must survive final record.
Weekend attack: question tree and binding constraints
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:01
Prior EEM/QQQ/IWM set aside until refreshed; funding deficit excluded. 1 Execution uncertainty:1.1 receipts:1.1.1 own trade ledger empty;1.1.2 Core flat/no queues from current context;1.1.3 Friday reminders missed, cause not established.1.2 authority:1.2.1 RTH-only fractional;1.2.2 current cap407.96;1.2.3 equity849.92.2 Signals:2.1 collection:2.1.1 completed Sep18 ETF bar;2.1.2 completed Sep18 UTC crypto;2.1.3 pagination/adjustments.2.2 calculation:2.2.1 annual intervals;2.2.2 SMA200/ATR20;2.2.3 rolling60 P90 five calendar years.3 Attack:3.1 each candidate:3.1.1 trend distance;3.1.2 Friday change;3.1.3 bear chain.3.2 joint risk:3.2.1 correlations;3.2.2 gaps;3.2.3 delayed exits.4 Handoff:4.1 state branches:4.1.1 fill;4.1.2 flat;4.1.3 stop.4.2 timing:4.2.1 next02UTC research;4.2.2 Mondaypreopen;4.2.3 MondayRTH. Start flat; goal valid initial deployment; binding session restriction and gap sizing. Specific fixed mandate supersedes generic repeat-backtest/halfKelly/3R instructions. No holdings to reset; planned levels are references only.
job: Compact Supply bars and ACP with complete policy footer (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-18 23:31
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-18T23:31:03.319537+00:00
bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays
FRO sip/2026-09-17 50.660 50.320 39.424 1.381 1 1
STNG sip/2026-09-17 87.850 85.730 78.887 2.178 1 1
VIST sip/2026-09-17 73.310 78.950 69.324 2.835 0 1
SWKS sip/2026-09-17 91.320 90.000 68.043 4.552 1 1
CCJ sip/2026-09-17 92.800 107.360 94.874 3.300 0 1
HWM sip/2026-09-17 225.760 283.480 268.451 7.886 0 1
TEN sip/2026-09-17 52.810 52.310 41.486 1.497 1 1
KMT sip/2026-09-17 29.840 31.020 31.828 0.895 0 1
BWLP sip/2026-09-17 26.140 25.840 22.045 0.725 1 1
LPG sip/2026-09-17 58.310 57.860 47.504 1.812 1 1
VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346
SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-14 425 0001104659-26-107167
CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250
ALM CIK1670061 2026-09-17 6-K 0001493152-26-043044
ACP primary index https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-35-2026-clarification-on-consecutive-booking-dates-limitation-in-the-panamax-locks-across-different-booking-periods.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf
SEC=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json
FRO Sep18 ex-date: adjusted bars not quotes. Age>4 stale.
END 7/7 attempted; errors above=unknown. Read signal column; Tail probability is uncalibrated stress, not a veto; current payoff and costed evidence control (3338). No orders.
job: Compact Supply bars and ACP with complete policy footer (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-18 22:16
fund=supply research only eligible=0 2026-09-18T22:16:04.516734+00:00
bars source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; columns feed/date/close/prior20/SMA50/ADR20/signal/ageDays
FRO sip/2026-09-17 50.660 50.320 39.424 1.381 1 1
STNG sip/2026-09-17 87.850 85.730 78.887 2.178 1 1
VIST sip/2026-09-17 73.310 78.950 69.324 2.835 0 1
SWKS sip/2026-09-17 91.320 90.000 68.043 4.552 1 1
CCJ sip/2026-09-17 92.800 107.360 94.874 3.300 0 1
HWM sip/2026-09-17 225.760 283.480 268.451 7.886 0 1
TEN sip/2026-09-17 52.810 52.310 41.486 1.497 1 1
KMT sip/2026-09-17 29.840 31.020 31.828 0.895 0 1
BWLP sip/2026-09-17 26.140 25.840 22.045 0.725 1 1
LPG sip/2026-09-17 58.310 57.860 47.504 1.812 1 1
VIST CIK1762506 2026-09-08 6-K 0001193125-26-384346
SWKS CIK4127 2026-09-14 425 0001104659-26-107167
CCJ CIK1009001 2026-07-31 6-K 0001193125-26-327250
ALM CIK1670061 2026-09-17 6-K 0001493152-26-043044
ACP primary index https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-35-2026-clarification-on-consecutive-booking-dates-limitation-in-the-panamax-locks-across-different-booking-periods.pdf | https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf
SEC=https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json
FRO Sep18 ex-date: adjusted bars not quotes. Age>4 stale.
END 7/7 attempted; errors above=unknown. Read signal column; Tail probability is uncalibrated stress, not a veto; current payoff and costed evidence control (3338). No orders.
job: 15 panels with challenge checks; replaces169 (exit 0)
job: GIS frozen September23 event option outcomes; research only (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-18 21:31
CONVEX research only; delayed trades not executable quotes; START 2026-09-18T21:31:03.525068+00:00 END 2026-09-18T21:31:04.653934+00:00
{"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"GIS":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",36.66,5398953],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",36.32,16375311]]},"missing":[]}
{"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"GIS261016C00040000":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",0.4,249],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",0.32,476]],"GIS261016P00032500":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",0.35,45],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",0.27,59]]},"missing":[]}