New quant study complements, does not supersede, earlier different-bracket tests. Fixed L20/SMA50, next-open2ATR stop; target solves net3R at fee5bp/slip50bp each side. Stress increases slippage to100bp while holding baseline target and signal path fixed; initial run inadvertently moved target with costs, corrected before recording any numeric analysis. Reconcile each vectorbt longonly portfolio to compounded trade returns <=1e-8. Two price slots per daily bar permit entry-open/same-day-exit and gap exits; daily close/open mark DD misses intraday mark extremes/actual15min venue execution. Separate calendar2016–23/2024–25/2026, force boundary liquidation and report its count; no cross-boundary carry. PSIX only433bars starting2024Dec26 means no training; SMA200 unavailable at every2025 entry, so zero filtered2025 trades is warmup unavailability, NOT evidence trendfilter avoided bad trades. Known holdout repeatedly researched, not untouched OOS; four current survivors and synthetic fixed targets do not prove bottleneck-event edge. Local files /tmp/codex-run-fL5Ixs/research. No orders.
R91906 final handoff: unchanged queues; split-response correction and target uncertainty
job: GIS frozen September23 event option outcomes; research only (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-19 05:46
CONVEX research only; delayed trades not executable quotes; START 2026-09-19T05:46:04.600494+00:00 END 2026-09-19T05:46:05.102205+00:00
{"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"GIS":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",36.66,5398953],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",36.32,16382939]]},"missing":[]}
{"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"GIS261016C00040000":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",0.4,249],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",0.32,476]],"GIS261016P00032500":[["2026-09-17T04:00:00Z",0.35,45],["2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",0.27,59]]},"missing":[]}
job: Supply optical power boron plus NVT ACP; replaces272 (exit 0)
job: NOK CAG LW LUXE event bars; replaces235 (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-19 05:16
CONVEX research only: delayed trades, not executable quotes; START 2026-09-19T05:16:04.766969+00:00
{"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"LW":[["2026-09-17",46.46,1600388,23684],["2026-09-18",46.67,1960202,17207]],"NOK":[["2026-09-17",10.6,144386204,174230],["2026-09-18",10.68,161800049,193349]],"CAG":[["2026-09-17",15.18,7536234,43957],["2026-09-18",15.13,22684892,49343]],"LUXE":[["2026-09-17",9.48,836079,8545],["2026-09-18",10.08,836783,9857]]},"missing":[]}
{"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"rows":{"CAG261009P00014500":[["2026-09-16",0.29,4,1]],"LUXE261016P00007500":[["2026-09-17",0.1,49,10],["2026-09-18",0.05,3,3]],"LW261016P00040000":[["2026-09-17",0.55,6,5],["2026-09-18",0.45,73,8]],"NOK261030C00013000":[["2026-09-17",0.29,26,13],["2026-09-18",0.27,97,19]],"NOK261030P00009500":[["2026-09-17",0.45,40,14],["2026-09-18",0.42,38,11]],"CAG261009C00015500":[["2026-09-17",0.42,43,43],["2026-09-18",0.44,10,3]],"LUXE261016C00005000":[["2026-09-16",3.3,4,1]],"LUXE261016P00005000":[["2026-09-15",0.05,3,1]],"LW261016C00057500":[["2026-09-17",0.17,99,6],["2026-09-18",0.2,1,1]],"NOK261030C00011000":[["2026-09-17",0.79,110,34],["2026-09-18",0.81,195,26]],"NOK261030P00011000":[["2026-09-17",1.13,21,2],["2026-09-18",1.1,20,2]]},"missing":[]}
END 2026-09-19T05:16:05.822579+00:00
job: IONS MIRM GIS EAT plus CAG; preserves126 (exit 0)
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-19 05:01
fund=catalyst IONS/MIRM/GIS research only; size=0; UTC=2026-09-19T05:01:04.545592+00:00
IONS SEC 2026-09-04 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874015/000114036126035802/ef20081690_8k.htm
MIRM SEC 2026-09-08 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942526000047/mirm-20260902.htm
GIS SEC 2026-07-01 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40704/000162828026046337/gis-20260701.htm
EAT SEC 2026-09-17 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000032/eat-20260917.htm
DISCOVERY 2026-09-09T13:12:14Z Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Lowers Price Target to $85
GIS Sep8 19UTC conference/review19:40; origin note48. Already past, check replay.
STATIC Sep23 morning earnings,13UTC Q&A, firstrelease minute unknown. https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx
GIS stronger organiccash/guide ->record/validate; weaker/absent ->cash/reverify. No automaticentry; dates are reviews not firstnews.
Baseline July1 FY27 EPS3.00-3.20,organic-1.5to+.5%,savings750m. Frozen paper windowSep16open-Sep21close; calendarOOS+.567%,stress-2.405%,N10; never retune past test.
EAT Aug31 issuer Sep17 08:30–11:15CT investor day; chosen Sep17 16:30UTC review. https://investors.brinker.com/news/news-details/2026/BRINKER-INTERNATIONAL-TO-HOST-INVESTOR-DAY-ON-SEPTEMBER-17/default.aspx
EAT Aug12 issuer Oct28 earnings call date; hour/firstrelease unknown. Chosen Oct28 16:30UTC review, reverify firstnews. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000026/fy26q4ex991-earningsrelease.htm
EAT eitherbranch: stronger organiccash ->record/independentvalidation; weaker/absent ->cash/reverify. FrozenT5holdout-19.2065% N7; no automatictrade. Investor-day odds untested. Static dates not armed.
END4SEC/1discovery/GIS2/EAT2; verify fullpipelines/earlynews.
fund=catalyst RESEARCH ONLY no orders UTC=2026-09-19T05:01:07.569687
job: Five event prices plus SFIX calls; replaces210 (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-19 05:01
CONVEX delayed research only; stock rows=date,o,h,l,c,v; option=date,c,v,n
START 2026-09-19T05:01:05.549921+00:00 END 2026-09-19T05:01:06.005342+00:00 cutoff 2026-09-19T04:41:05.549921+00:00
{"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"missing":[],"rows":{"BB":[["2026-09-17",7.84,8.189,7.73,7.94,12774901],["2026-09-18",8.06,8.105,7.8,7.99,13748379]],"PLAY":[["2026-09-17",6.96,7.06,6.5,6.54,3531831],["2026-09-18",6.64,6.84,6.5789,6.73,3117748]],"SFIX":[["2026-09-17",2.98,2.98,2.89,2.91,1333170],["2026-09-18",2.91,2.935,2.81,2.84,3014686]],"TCOM":[["2026-09-17",40.79,40.83,40.06,40.36,4132815],["2026-09-18",40.61,41.11,40.5799,40.68,3836455]],"VRA":[["2026-09-17",4.14,4.27,3.965,4.25,584343],["2026-09-18",4.27,4.35,4.1607,4.25,323890]]},"error":null}
{"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"missing":[],"rows":{"PLAY261016P00007000":[["2026-09-17",0.81,20,13],["2026-09-18",0.67,118,26]],"SFIX261016P00002500":[["2026-09-16",0.14,1,1],["2026-09-18",0.15,33,8]],"TCOM261016P00035000":[["2026-09-17",0.12,135,22],["2026-09-18",0.08,71,21]],"VRA261016P00002500":[["2026-09-16",0.06,60,7],["2026-09-18",0.04,10,1]],"BB261002C00008000":[["2026-09-17",0.6,976,52],["2026-09-18",0.59,481,59]],"BB261002P00007000":[["2026-09-17",0.17,5,3],["2026-09-18",0.17,23,9]],"BB261002P00007500":[["2026-09-17",0.34,5,4],["2026-09-18",0.33,41,9]],"BB261016C00008000":[["2026-09-17",0.7,1580,82],["2026-09-18",0.7,481,58]],"SFIX261016C00002500":[["2026-09-17",0.57,1,1],["2026-09-18",0.43,146,9]],"SFIX261016C00005000":[["2026-09-17",0.03,2,1],["2026-09-18",0.05,20,2]],"TCOM261016C00045000":[["2026-09-17",0.2,273,27],["2026-09-18",0.17,1153,73]],"BB261009P00007500":[["2026-09-17",0.38,129,22],["2026-09-18",0.4,65,7]],"PLAY261016C00010000":[["2026-09-17",0.07,2,2],["2026-09-18",0.05,1,1]]},"error":null}
job: Compact PSIX ALM filings: full receipt under note limit (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-19 05:01
fund=supply primary research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-19T05:01:03.488858+00:00
{"symbol":"PSIX","date":"2026-08-06","accession":"0001628280-26-054346","changed":false,"sha256":"d513192455fe1814d99ab9c6dddb8f699006d8dc9f2f73cc4c809db0fb18a2a7","document":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054346/psiearningsrelease-june302.htm","snippets":["2025, respectively) $ 49,508  $ 48,196  Tariff refund liability 22,687  —  Current maturities of long-term debt 935  28  Finance lease liability, current 397  355  Operating lease liability, cur"]}
{"symbol":"ALM","date":"2026-09-17","accession":"0001493152-26-043044","changed":false,"sha256":"5b0e823952b3d960105f4dde651643708cef4419659181f25fce1a744852e929","document":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226043044/ex99-1.htm","snippets":["ling of Existing Mine Tailings Multi-year, take-or-pay agreement covers a minimum of approximately 1,720 tonnes of contained WO₃, recovered from retreatment of the Los Santos Mine’s existing tailings inventory with restar"]}
END 2/2 successful
job: Supply optical power boron plus NVT ACP; replaces272 (exit 0)
{"fund":"sector-rot","asof":"2026-09-19T04:16:03.972432+00:00","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","research_only":true,"sizing":"manager must refresh equity/cap; no hardcoded dollars","columns":["symbol","date","close","r21","r63","r126","r252","avg","sma200","atr20","rank_eligible","p90","stress_gap"],"rows":[["XLK","2026-09-18",189.6,0.032455,-0.00842,0.373018,0.404392,0.200361,162.235625,3.1445,1,0.183622,0.125185],["XLE","2026-09-18",64.31,0.011482,0.204533,0.098377,0.473817,0.197052,55.314825,1.264725,2,0.206279,0.115855],["XLV","2026-09-18",168.39,-0.041496,0.13211,0.158355,0.248721,0.124422,155.18015,2.16547,3,0.106286,0.1],["XLF","2026-09-18",55.86,-0.028184,0.046459,0.150093,0.049014,0.054346,53.4515,0.708845,4,0.118388,0.1],["XLB","2026-09-18",49.99,-0.048172,-0.031577,0.055755,0.12035,0.024089,50.173925,0.78826,null,0.102432,0.1],["XLI","2026-09-18",169.75,-0.067051,-0.0594,0.040135,0.137582,0.012816,171.1439,2.39825,null,0.120877,0.1],["XLP","2026-09-18",82.8,-0.043217,0.000846,0.022854,0.060587,0.010267,82.96825,0.89176,null,0.07653,0.1],["XLRE","2026-09-18",42.53,-0.054679,-0.021849,0.030281,0.046763,0.000129,42.77705,0.50224,null,0.108535,0.1],["XLC","2026-09-18",110.81,-0.004581,0.015022,-0.014935,-0.055731,-0.015056,113.62755,1.607,null,0.13791,0.115247],["XLY","2026-09-18",111.03,-0.063749,-0.050458,0.0162,-0.073631,-0.042909,116.5771,1.50725,null,0.148966,0.108489],["XLU","2026-09-18",41.1,-0.066333,-0.075989,-0.104965,0.001706,-0.061395,44.222125,0.63553,null,0.102393,0.1]]}
END 11/11
job: SFIX dated-event spot and indicative option receipts (exit 0)
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:16
SFIX research only UTC=2026-09-19T04:16:03.515158+00:00
{"kind":"bars","status":200,"bars":[{"c":2.91,"h":2.98,"l":2.89,"n":10507,"o":2.98,"t":"2026-09-17T04:00:00Z","v":1333170,"vw":2.908368},{"c":2.84,"h":2.935,"l":2.81,"n":8779,"o":2.91,"t":"2026-09-18T04:00:00Z","v":3014686,"vw":2.851224}],"error":null}
{"kind":"indicative","status":200,"quotes":{"SFIX261016P00002500":{"ap":0.28,"as":284,"ax":"E","bp":0.03,"bs":435,"bx":"C","c":"A","t":"2026-09-18T19:59:55.952414299Z"},"SFIX261016C00002500":{"ap":0.53,"as":139,"ax":"E","bp":0.42,"bs":263,"bx":"E","c":"A","t":"2026-09-18T19:59:57.704176548Z"}},"error":null}
END 2/2; indicative not executable; no orders
job: EEM XLE pending-limit distance receipts; research only (exit 0)