job: Sector signals with bounded403 fallback; replaces275 (exit 0)
Sector rotation2026-09-20 02:16
{"fund":"sector-rot","asof":"2026-09-20T02:16:03.412768+00:00","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","research_only":true,"sizing":"manager must refresh equity/cap; no hardcoded dollars","columns":["symbol","date","close","r21","r63","r126","r252","avg","sma200","atr20","rank_eligible","p90","stress_gap"],"rows":[["XLK","2026-09-18",189.6,0.032455,-0.00842,0.373018,0.404392,0.200361,162.235625,3.1445,1,0.183622,0.125185],["XLE","2026-09-18",64.31,0.011482,0.204533,0.098377,0.473817,0.197052,55.314825,1.264725,2,0.206279,0.115855],["XLV","2026-09-18",168.39,-0.041496,0.13211,0.158355,0.248721,0.124422,155.18015,2.16547,3,0.106286,0.1],["XLF","2026-09-18",55.86,-0.028184,0.046459,0.150093,0.049014,0.054346,53.4515,0.708845,4,0.118388,0.1],["XLB","2026-09-18",49.99,-0.048172,-0.031577,0.055755,0.12035,0.024089,50.173925,0.78826,null,0.102432,0.1],["XLI","2026-09-18",169.75,-0.067051,-0.0594,0.040135,0.137582,0.012816,171.1439,2.39825,null,0.120877,0.1],["XLP","2026-09-18",82.8,-0.043217,0.000846,0.022854,0.060587,0.010267,82.96825,0.89176,null,0.07653,0.1],["XLRE","2026-09-18",42.53,-0.054679,-0.021849,0.030281,0.046763,0.000129,42.77705,0.50224,null,0.108535,0.1],["XLC","2026-09-18",110.81,-0.004581,0.015022,-0.014935,-0.055731,-0.015056,113.62755,1.607,null,0.13791,0.115247],["XLY","2026-09-18",111.03,-0.063749,-0.050458,0.0162,-0.073631,-0.042909,116.5771,1.50725,null,0.148966,0.108489],["XLU","2026-09-18",41.1,-0.066333,-0.075989,-0.104965,0.001706,-0.061395,44.222125,0.63553,null,0.102393,0.1]]}
END 11/11
R92002 collector extension tested before replacement
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:12
Existing278 remote01:46 END13/13 confirmed,32runs remain. Tested /tmp/collector_new.sh locally02:11 END16/16 exit0; retainsalloldprices/filings/ACP/OFAC,addsCE/IMOSdailySIPsignals andSECaccessions, LaxmicustomerPDFdiscovery https://www.laxmi.com/customer-info/ . No dependency onbs4 (not installed); requests/re only, last outputabout3kchars. Recipe: run bash /tmp/collector_new.sh; fullscriptwillbesavedinreplacementjob. Newlink meansread original,notautomatictrade. Collector doesnotextractPDFpricevectors,thosearemanualresearch. Sources not immutable; recorddate/hashifchanging. No neworder.
Records3566full11 technical and3567ETF structure plus finalstrategy, observations29868–79 and3lessons accepted. XLK/XLE/XLV86.66each259.98 conditionalMonday401Sep21 13:50UTC. Noorders/noexits/noclosedtrades; specificfractionalRTH rule precludes weekendlimit substitution. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Replaced275 with281 after real local test END11/11 exit0: at most4 earlier-endpoint retries on403, commonlatestdate and<=5dayage checks. 281remote accepted28daily runs but first output pending at02:03; next04UTC must inspect actual remote END/exit and repair if failed. Script retrievable via list_jobs. Preserve382/410. Single names/global/crypto outside fixed11; no newfund proposed. Prior3461/3466 unchanged diagnostics retained, no repeatbootstrap/backtest. Remaining gaps dividend reconciliation/exact15minexit/missedSep18fillcause. Completed roughly3minutes against39planned/45hard; no timed-out research thread.
02UTC question tree: source integrity and fixed-universe breadth
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:02
Prior set aside: weekend ranks likely unchanged; verify. 1 Data integrity:1.1 timing:1.1.1 latest completed equity?1.1.2 completed crypto?1.1.3 revised bars?1.2 definitions:1.2.1 adjusted total-return proxy?1.2.2 pagination?1.2.3 five-year endpoints?2 Breadth:2.1 universe:2.1.1 US broad indexes?2.1.2 developed/emerging foreign exposure?2.1.3 gold/duration/crypto alternatives?2.2 primary sources:2.2.1 what index is owned?2.2.2 concentration?2.2.3 issuer claims vs observations?3 Implementation:3.1 caps:3.1.1 own ledger?3.1.2 Core exclusions?3.1.3 other-book overlap?3.2 delayed exit:3.2.1 stress bound?3.2.2 Monday receipt?3.2.3 monitoring gap? Start flat, equity1000/cap280; goal current top3; binding constraint RTH execution. Daily resolution discards intraday headline noise. Specific fixed nine-asset mandate governs breadth; all-listing single-name and other-country screens cannot supply eligible substitutes. Validation explicitly done; no strategy retest.
R92002 question tree and frozen research design
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:01
Prior: shortages can enrich capacity owners but buyers may capture rent through contracts; set aside shipping and electrical anchoring. Resolution: issuer-quarter cash plus daily adjusted bars, not weekend headline ticks. Question tree, least predictable first: (1) Unseen constraints: (a) materials—who has qualifying inventory, who funds restart, who owns offtake price; (b) power/computing—who owns interconnect, who pays capex, who bears hardware obsolescence; (c) transport—where are actual queues, who gets paid for delay, can routes substitute; (d) chemicals/industrial—whose plant is down, alternate qualified suppliers, contract repricing lag. (2) Rent ownership: (a) supplier concentration and sole-source inputs; (b) customer concentration/cancellation; (c) backlog to collections; (d) capacity additions destroy scarcity. (3) Investability: (a) full US listing census and missingness; (b) overseas/crypto mandate map and venue eligibility; (c) held-out costed signal and corporate actions; (d) valuation, 3R supported upside, half-Kelly and gap cap. Use fixed prior20 breakout plus SMA50 diagnostic, train through2022 and holdout2023 onward; no tune on latest winners. Budget44min starts02:01UTC, protected finish02:40–45. Fund cash120, ledger no trades. Every source dated and issuer repetition counted once.
R92002 question tree and bounded plan
Convex tail2026-09-20 02:01
44-minute budget ending 02:45 UTC; reserve final5min. Prior expectation set aside: repeated SFIX rejection need not describe wider market. Least predictable: can broader coverage reveal an affordable qualifying contract? Tree: 1 Universe completeness > exchange directories > active/test/ETF/ADR classification; > quote breadth > missing/suspended names; > overseas > US ADR or option expression. 2 New events > issuer earnings > first-news date/time; > FDA/court > pending versus resolved and comparable class; > crypto > primary activation versus marketing. 3 Tail edge > same-kind sample > at least6 and timing sensitivity; > direction > absolute gate versus signed payoff; > affordability > ask<=.30, expiry+7days, deliverables. 4 Validation > technical > 52week highs plus prior-volume base; > backtest > fees/slippage and chronological holdout; > simulation > permitted exits versus hypothetical hold. 5 Decision > capital >100fund/30ticket/max4; > monitoring > existing collector receipts and both branches; > evidence > date/source/missingness. Resolution: daily completed prices for screening, timestamped options for research only; no weekend fills. Apply lessons1092/1093: retain small events and model permitted exit policy. No own trades found; execution win rate/slippage/stop statistics unestimable N0.
R92002 question tree and scope
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:01
Prior: existing EEM/XLE queues remain eligible; set aside funding pressure. Least predictable first. 1 Integrity: 1.1 corporate actions -> split continuity, dividend adjustment, completed timestamps; 1.2 execution -> pending/fill status, expiry, collector END. 2 Full mandate screen: 2.1 seven index ETFs -> 252d return, SMA200, affordability; 2.2 eleven sectors -> 21/63/126/252 mean, SMA200, combined fund cap. 3 Outer structure: 3.1 emerging markets -> country concentration, currency exposure, index methodology; 3.2 energy -> constituent concentration, earnings cyclicality, supply versus demand shocks. 4 Risk: 4.1 exits -> ATR, P90 60d return, profit-only ratchet; 4.2 sampling -> regime dependence, overlap, simulation sensitivity. 5 Handoff -> receipt coverage, next review, replacement branches. All 18 fixed ETF candidates screened; EFA/EEM provide non-US exposure. Single listings, direct foreign listings and crypto are outside this fund's fixed universe, so an all-listing search cannot add tradable candidates. Specific mandate accepts published validation and forbids retesting; no new backtest. Daily resolution, no weekend headline inference.
02UTC question tree and scope
Sector rotation2026-09-20 02:01
Start flat equity1000 cap260; goal executable fixed-rule deployment; binding constraint closed RTH fractional execution. Prior leaders XLK/XLE/XLV are provisional until refresh. Three-level tree: integrity/actions/missing splits; integrity/actions/double repair; integrity/time/completed close; integrity/income/dividend reconciliation; signal/ranking/all11; signal/trend/SMA breadth; signal/targets/P90 overlap; risk/lot/gap stress; risk/book/concentration; execution/state/actual fills; execution/capital/aggregate XLE; continuity/collector/endpoint reliability. Apply lessons1083 bounded completed endpoint,1084 actual fill receipts,1085 no funding-driven changes. Fixed universe excludes individual US listings, non-US listings and crypto; broadening tonight means complete11 coverage and structure review, not an unauthorized strategy change. No repeat strategy backtest or static simulation: validation complete and prior3461/3466 remain diagnostic.
job: EEM XLE pending-limit distance receipts; research only (exit 0)
job: IONS MIRM GIS EAT plus CAG; preserves126 (exit 0)
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-20 01:46
fund=catalyst IONS/MIRM/GIS research only; size=0; UTC=2026-09-20T01:46:05.954403+00:00
IONS SEC 2026-09-04 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874015/000114036126035802/ef20081690_8k.htm
MIRM SEC 2026-09-08 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942526000047/mirm-20260902.htm
GIS SEC 2026-07-01 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40704/000162828026046337/gis-20260701.htm
EAT SEC 2026-09-17 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000032/eat-20260917.htm
DISCOVERY 2026-09-09T13:12:14Z Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Lowers Price Target to $85
GIS Sep8 19UTC conference/review19:40; origin note48. Already past, check replay.
STATIC Sep23 morning earnings,13UTC Q&A, firstrelease minute unknown. https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx
GIS stronger organiccash/guide ->record/validate; weaker/absent ->cash/reverify. No automaticentry; dates are reviews not firstnews.
Baseline July1 FY27 EPS3.00-3.20,organic-1.5to+.5%,savings750m. Frozen paper windowSep16open-Sep21close; calendarOOS+.567%,stress-2.405%,N10; never retune past test.
EAT Aug31 issuer Sep17 08:30–11:15CT investor day; chosen Sep17 16:30UTC review. https://investors.brinker.com/news/news-details/2026/BRINKER-INTERNATIONAL-TO-HOST-INVESTOR-DAY-ON-SEPTEMBER-17/default.aspx
EAT Aug12 issuer Oct28 earnings call date; hour/firstrelease unknown. Chosen Oct28 16:30UTC review, reverify firstnews. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000026/fy26q4ex991-earningsrelease.htm
EAT eitherbranch: stronger organiccash ->record/independentvalidation; weaker/absent ->cash/reverify. FrozenT5holdout-19.2065% N7; no automatictrade. Investor-day odds untested. Static dates not armed.
END4SEC/1discovery/GIS2/EAT2; verify fullpipelines/earlynews.
fund=catalyst RESEARCH ONLY no orders UTC=2026-09-20T01:46:08.911020
job: Five event prices plus SFIX calls; replaces210 (exit 0)
Convex events2026-09-20 01:46
CONVEX delayed research only; stock rows=date,o,h,l,c,v; option=date,c,v,n
START 2026-09-20T01:46:04.114461+00:00 END 2026-09-20T01:46:05.308861+00:00 cutoff 2026-09-20T01:26:04.114461+00:00
{"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"missing":[],"rows":{"BB":[["2026-09-17",7.84,8.189,7.73,7.94,12774901],["2026-09-18",8.06,8.105,7.8,7.99,13748379]],"PLAY":[["2026-09-17",6.96,7.06,6.5,6.54,3531831],["2026-09-18",6.64,6.84,6.5789,6.73,3117748]],"SFIX":[["2026-09-17",2.98,2.98,2.89,2.91,1333170],["2026-09-18",2.91,2.935,2.81,2.84,3014686]],"TCOM":[["2026-09-17",40.79,40.83,40.06,40.36,4132815],["2026-09-18",40.61,41.11,40.5799,40.68,3836455]],"VRA":[["2026-09-17",4.14,4.27,3.965,4.25,584343],["2026-09-18",4.27,4.35,4.1607,4.25,323890]]},"error":null}
{"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"missing":[],"rows":{"BB261009P00007500":[["2026-09-17",0.38,129,22],["2026-09-18",0.4,65,7]],"PLAY261016C00010000":[["2026-09-17",0.07,2,2],["2026-09-18",0.05,1,1]],"PLAY261016P00007000":[["2026-09-17",0.81,20,13],["2026-09-18",0.67,118,26]],"SFIX261016C00005000":[["2026-09-17",0.03,2,1],["2026-09-18",0.05,20,2]],"TCOM261016P00035000":[["2026-09-17",0.12,135,22],["2026-09-18",0.08,71,21]],"VRA261016P00002500":[["2026-09-16",0.06,60,7],["2026-09-18",0.04,10,1]],"BB261002P00007000":[["2026-09-17",0.17,5,3],["2026-09-18",0.17,23,9]],"BB261016C00008000":[["2026-09-17",0.7,1580,82],["2026-09-18",0.7,481,58]],"SFIX261016C00002500":[["2026-09-17",0.57,1,1],["2026-09-18",0.43,146,9]],"SFIX261016P00002500":[["2026-09-16",0.14,1,1],["2026-09-18",0.15,33,8]],"TCOM261016C00045000":[["2026-09-17",0.2,273,27],["2026-09-18",0.17,1153,73]],"BB261002C00008000":[["2026-09-17",0.6,976,52],["2026-09-18",0.59,481,59]],"BB261002P00007500":[["2026-09-17",0.34,5,4],["2026-09-18",0.33,41,9]]},"error":null}
job: Compact PSIX ALM filings: full receipt under note limit (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-20 01:46
fund=supply primary research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-20T01:46:03.960771+00:00
{"symbol":"PSIX","date":"2026-08-06","accession":"0001628280-26-054346","changed":false,"sha256":"d1c91a77dd29366a858ab9f73839f285818608ca562d8466a76c0a9d67798bc1","document":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054346/psiearningsrelease-june302.htm","snippets":["2025, respectively) $ 49,508  $ 48,196  Tariff refund liability 22,687  —  Current maturities of long-term debt 935  28  Finance lease liability, current 397  355  Operating lease liability, cur"]}
{"symbol":"ALM","date":"2026-09-17","accession":"0001493152-26-043044","changed":false,"sha256":"e62df69acea44a32b0a157bd9a873c2a819d0781a33d969716d347af13adf156","document":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226043044/ex99-1.htm","snippets":["ling of Existing Mine Tailings Multi-year, take-or-pay agreement covers a minimum of approximately 1,720 tonnes of contained WO₃, recovered from retreatment of the Los Santos Mine’s existing tailings inventory with restar"]}
END 2/2 successful
job: SFIX dated-event spot and indicative option receipts (exit 0)
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:46
SFIX research only UTC=2026-09-20T00:46:03.227232+00:00
{"kind":"bars","status":200,"bars":[{"c":2.91,"h":2.98,"l":2.89,"n":10507,"o":2.98,"t":"2026-09-17T04:00:00Z","v":1333170,"vw":2.908368},{"c":2.84,"h":2.935,"l":2.81,"n":8779,"o":2.91,"t":"2026-09-18T04:00:00Z","v":3014686,"vw":2.851224}],"error":null}
{"kind":"indicative","status":200,"quotes":{"SFIX261016P00002500":{"ap":0.28,"as":284,"ax":"E","bp":0.03,"bs":435,"bx":"C","c":"A","t":"2026-09-18T19:59:55.952414299Z"},"SFIX261016C00002500":{"ap":0.53,"as":139,"ax":"E","bp":0.42,"bs":263,"bx":"E","c":"A","t":"2026-09-18T19:59:57.704176548Z"}},"error":null}
END 2/2; indicative not executable; no orders
job: Conagra issuer headlines and dated-event option receipts (exit 0)
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:31
CAG research only 2026-09-20T00:31:03.670858+00:00
{"kind":"bars","status":200,"data":[{"c":15.18,"o":15.24,"t":"2026-09-17T04:00:00Z","v":7536234},{"c":15.13,"o":15.07,"t":"2026-09-18T04:00:00Z","v":22684891}]}
{"kind":"options","status":200,"data":{"CAG261016P00015000":{"quote":{"ap":0.62,"as":206,"ax":"M","bp":0.42,"bs":631,"bx":"A","c":"A","t":"2026-09-18T19:59:59.920701875Z"},"trade":{"c":"g","p":0.51,"s":1,"t":"2026-09-18T19:34:02.080057362Z","x":"C"}},"CAG261016P00014000":{"quote":{"ap":0.23,"as":1,"ax":"U","bp":0.08,"bs":416,"bx":"A","c":"O","t":"2026-09-18T19:59:59.652521928Z"},"trade":{"c":"I","p":0.2,"s":1,"t":"2026-09-18T19:50:17.528259721Z","x":"U"}}}}
{"kind":"issuer","status":200,"data":[{"title":"Conagra Brands to Release Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Earnings on September 30, 2026","url":"https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962"},{"title":"Slim Jim Makes Snacking History with World's Longest Meat Snack Stick","url":"https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-slim-jim-makes-snacking-history-with-worlds-longest-meat-snack-stick-prn-122964"},{"title":"Banquet Debuts New MEGA Chicken Tenders to Satisfy America's Desire for Tenders","url":"https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-banquet-debuts-new-mega-chicken-tenders-to-satisfy-americas-desire-for-tenders-prn-122963"},{"title":"Conagra Brands to Release Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Earnings on September 30, 2026","url":"https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962"}]}
END 3 /3; indicative not executable; no orders
job: Lamb Weston October earnings spot and option receipts (exit 0)
R92000 collector note correction and final research gaps
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:10
Correction to3811: the stray text '111? no' is a drafting typo; local LW collector requested exactly two contracts and completed two HTTP200 requests. Job280 is accepted with96runs at480minutes; remote execution still to verify. Largest remaining gaps: October2024 exact first-news timestamp, historical executable option bid/ask and15-minute backtest, exhaustive FDA/court/non-US/crypto-option census. N11 inclusion sensitivity rejects LW regardless of Oct1/Oct2 reaction; do not reopen N10-only tail estimate. All current own positions/orders remain zero; other funds' EEM/XLE queues are outside this book. Notes/observations/analyses/lessons read at start; applies full-premium and date-horizon lessons.
R92000 tested LW collector and existing receipts
Convex tail2026-09-20 00:09
Own collector test /tmp/lwcollector.sh completed Sep20 00:08:33 UTC, END2/2, both HTTP200,111? no: two selected contracts P37.5/P42.5 and last two stockbars. Scheduled every480minutes for96runs; acceptance is not remote execution proof. Recipe: requests with bearerDATA_TOKEN to SITE_URL/data/stock-bars using RFC3339 now-7d to now-20min, SIP/all; option-snapshots feedindicative selectedLW261016P00037500,LW261016P00042500. Compact quotes retain timestamps and sizes. Current-day bars may be incomplete. Existing own jobs276 SFIX receiptSep19 20:31 END2/2,277 BB22:31 END2/2,279CAG16:16END3/3 verified in query_research. All quote timestamps remainSep18; no weekendexecutableprice inferred. Check newremoteLWEND next due; no duplicate existing collectors.
R92000 correction and reproducibility
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:07
Analysis3548 cash-bridge observation reference was mistyped29808; correct observation is29829. Values/source unchanged. Repro files this sandbox /tmp/supply_test.py and /tmp/powl_test.json; /tmp/supply_stats.py and /tmp/supply_stats.json. POWL direct SIP adjustment=all correctly handles Apr6 3:1 split; CLI printed pre-split raw-scale trades, so use CLI only as diagnostic, not authoritative corrected return. Preserve source URLs and full parameter cells in observations. No order.