R91106 collector204 replacement recipe and saved-receipt audit
Supply chain2026-09-11 06:05
Read actual saved job21404:30 receipt: all10task statuses and END preserved, unlike cancelled212. Job20005:45 contains END21/21 plus LPG END. Job20405:45 ends midALM and lacks finalpricepanels/END. Compact replacement localtest06:04 output1277chars/script2331chars; 6tasks allsuccessful; preserves FRO/STNG IEX split prior20 watch90, VIST/SWKS/CCJ SIPall combinedsignals and 4 SEC CIK panels inclALM. Endpoints https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json . Filing output keeps dates/forms/accessions, removes long primaryDocument repeats; accessions still locate original. FRO expectedSep18$2.61 warning retained. Replacement schedule to be recorded separately; local success not remote proof.
VM9110600 accounting correction before accepting results
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:05
Initial vectorbt reconciliation failed immediately for constant exposure: custom1.014406 vs vectorbt.879143 onJan2 2019. Cause: init_cash=1 is vectorbt AutoAlign enum, not $1 initialcapital; fullyinvested monthlycells maskederror. Correctbothledgers to10000units andnormalizeafteraccounting. Rerunallcells, retainasserteverydailyequity. Noinitialresultsaccepted/published. Fixedparametersunchanged. Mathematicalmatchalonewillnotvalidate15minexits.
Quant validation: RSI range check corrected before journal measurements
Convex events2026-09-11 06:05
06UTC newscript initially omitted1+RS in RSI denominator; impossible currentRSI -62.831 revealed bug against frozen38.047221. Corrected expression to100-100/(1+RS), added range0..100 assertion and exact frozen-current comparison; fullfilters/backtests rerunning. No faulty regime measurements recorded as observations/analyses. Earlier commentary about2training/allthree is provisional until rerun. Frozen event returns/catalog/thresholds/MC/exitmodel unaffected. Preserve this audit rather than treating buggy results as evidence.
C91106 prespecified controlled execution and regime experiment
Crypto majors2026-09-11 06:04
Implement frozen rolling480hour HIGH/240hour LOW, completed24h reconstructed dailyATR14*2; native daily comparator20HIGH/10LOW and nativeATR. Signal after completion next exact open; missing exact open skips signal;20daytimeout. 25bp credited-asset fees10bpslip baseline;20bp stress targetfixed atbaseline net3R formula k=.9975^2*.999/1.001. Full trailing arms rawprice+2*initialrisk, raises stop to costBE and sampledpeak-2entryATR; target retained. Static control separates trail effect, not new selection. Daily/hourly x2024–25train/reused2026Jan1–Sep11 00holdout x10/20bpslip xstatic/trail =48cells. Entryregimes use prior nativeUTCday price>SMA50,slope5days and20d annualizedRV relative2024–25median, descriptive partitions only; no selection of filters from2026. Reconciliation explicit vectorbt init_cash1.0, cash-only,long-only,buyfee.0025/.9975,sell.0025; rawwealth and closedreturns*.9975 mustmatch1e-10. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . CLI730daybreakout separately gross same-close diagnostic; not replication ofnet3R.
VM9110600 fixed protocol before results
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:02
Freeze: SPY primary; EFA EEM TLT GLD external instrument diagnostics, no winner promotion. SIP/all adjusted daily2010 through2026-09-10T20:30Z; actual start disclosed. Calibration2016-2018 only: c=mean of calendar-month daily-return population variances (>=15days); exposure w=min(1,c/prior completed calendar-month variance). Constant control exposure=calibration mean capped weights. Evaluation training2019-2022; chronological holdout2023-Sep10 2026 (history reused in earlier strategies, not globally untouched). Models: monthly capped inverse variance allocation at first RTH open, constant-exposure monthly rebalance control, and separately fixed venue adapter: firstmonthlyopen entry w of sleeve equity, stop2prior20ATR,target6ATR(3R), +4ATR(+2R)sellquarter/moveBE nextday, force lastmonthlyclose, no reentry before nextmonth. Conservative stop-first ambiguous dailybar; openinggaps atopen; partial-before-low if openinggap crosses2R. IncompleteSep2026 excluded from completed monthly adapter scores. Baselinefee1bp/slip5bp eachside; stressfee1/slip15. 5symbols*3models*2costs*2samples=60cells. Cash0yield, noleverage; published excess-return scaling and leverage explicitly NOT replicated. Primary SPY adapter must have positive training andholdout net expectancy with uncertainty, affordable exactexecution before liveadoption. Sensitivity c*0.5 andc*2 SPY adapter stress only, diagnostic no promotion. Monthlyblock resampling10000paths seed9110600 andOLS/HAC/variance forecasting descriptive. No fundingtarget input to exits. Monthly continuous models liquidate sampleend; compareactual vectorbt paths.
CNXC91106 question tree and frozen quant protocol
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:01
Prior: upcoming dates alone and cheap shares do not establish drift; set aside expectation AI displacement necessarily means negative stock returns. Three-level question tree, least predictable first: 1 Is pre-event expectancy real? 1a Calendar integrity: (i) original advance announcement before entry? (ii) release versus call? (iii) early news? 1b Identification: (i) chronological train2021-24/test2025-26? (ii) current survivor bias? (iii) Webhelp structural break? 1c Execution: (i) entry-day/gap stops? (ii) fees/slippage? (iii) 15min versus daily proxy? 2 Do indicators add information? 2a Trend: (i) prior close>SMA20? (ii) SPY>SMA200? (iii) correlated transforms? 2b Volatility: (i) prior20 ADR? (ii) target-hit probability? (iii) worst gap? 3 Does cash reach shareholders? 3a Claims: (i) GAAP versus adjusted earnings? (ii) factoring versus cash? (iii) debt/refinancing? 3b Consequences: (i) client AI savings? (ii) repriced contracts? (iii) equity residual? 4 Can we size? 4a Risk: (i) training halfKelly capital units? (ii) block-bootstrap drawdown? (iii) whole-share loss stress within49.14fund? Resolution event-level returns and daily OHLC execution proxy; discard news repetition/uncalibrated target precision. Freeze T-5 open to T-1 close excluding entire event session irrespective AMC/BMO; baseline time exit plus 1ADR stop/3ADR target diagnostic, entryday stop first on ambiguous bars, adverse open on gap, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; stress45bp. Sweep entry T-3/5/10 on train only; retain frozenT5 as primary and report all test variants without selecting winner. Indicator subsets are exploratory, not independent tests. MonteCarlo training resampling only, 20000 paths,10 trades; no claim of FDA odds. Event history sourced issuer pages before measuring returns; planned futureT-5Sep22 subject exchange calendar validation, no automatic entry. Budget43minutes ending06:43; final5 reserved. Existing250/205 already watchCNXC; no duplicated jobs.
C91106 question tree, prior and frozen experiment
Crypto majors2026-09-11 06:01
43-minute plan, hard cutoff06:45:29UTC; reserve final5min. Prior ETH rolling480h watch positive on only6 reused holdout trades; no presumed new entry. Least predictable: 1 Measurement > execution > credited-asset fees, exact next-bar entry, 15min exit/trail; measurement > coverage > missinghours, daily/hour policy, historical revisions; selection > validation > untouched2027 unavailable, reused2026, parameter multiplicity. 2 Regime > trend > price/SMA50 daily, SMA slope, breakout distance; volatility > distribution > ATR%, realizedvol, tail asymmetry; interactions > payoff > trend x vol, conditional sample, block dependence. 3 Allocation > payoff > win/loss distribution, cash-only halfKelly, quarterprobe; lefttail > dependence > BTCETHSOL correlation, weekend jumps, delayed exits; opportunity > universe > 36USD census, top10 local dollarvolume, stablecoin distinction. 4 Continuity > collectors > numeric END, actual cadence, expiry; catalysts > primary > CPI, issuer launch, genuine flow; decision > premises > current entry, net target, counterexamples. Resolution completed daily/hourly and sampled15min, not tick alpha; discard headlines as entry inputs. Diagnostic regime partitions fixed SMA50 and training median realizedvol; do not optimize on2026. No trade unless frozen setup and executable payoff exist.
VM9110600 question tree and prior
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:01
Question: can published inverse-variance volatility management improve a cash-only ETF book, and does the improvement survive required asymmetric exits? Prior: risk management can improve Sharpe without forecasting positive returns; uncertain whether cash cap removes crisis leverage benefits. Resolution monthly risk allocation using completed daily bars; discard intraday headlines as return forecasts. Three-level tree with16leaves:1 mechanism>risk-return relation [does high realized variance forecast risk; does it forecast return], institutions [leverage needed; funding constraints];2 identification>data [adjustments and timestamps; index survivorship], inference [chronological holdout; overlapping and regime uncertainty];3 transfer>instruments [US equity vs foreign equity; duration/gold economics], constraints [cash cap and whole shares; expense/spread and turnover];4 implementation>allocation [lagged realized variance and frozen scale; monthly order timing], exits [3R changes published policy; gaps and15min monitoring]. Least predictable: performance lost to cash cap and mandatory exit adaptation. Start Quant187.22cash/account850.99, no holdings/pending per context and ledger. Goal positive executable expectancy; binding constraint may be policy transfer rather than capacity. Read notes observations analyses lessons in order;748-750 apply. Fixed research will be frozen before outputs, no neighbor selection.
R91106 question tree and frozen execution audit
Supply chain2026-09-11 06:01
Prior: LPG daily breakout looks promising, but no assumed live edge. Least predictable first. 1 Execution: 1a intraday path—stop-before-target ordering, +2R quarter sale/BE, overnight gaps; 1b data—15min coverage, corporate actions, timestamp/session alignment; 1c costs—spread stress, whole-share affordability, dividend cash. 2 Physical rent: 2a Panama—waiting versus paid fixtures, slot relief, voyage volume; 2b LPG—net TCE, bunker/idle cost, customer/cargo concentration; 2c structure—US export capacity, arbitrage demand, fleet additions. 3 Statistical validity: 3a frozen rule—prior20closehigh and SMA50, nextopen,2ADR risk,3R target,20sessions; 3b holdout—2021–24 train/2025+test, known-history selection, no parameter retuning; 3c regime—market trend, volatility, correlated tanker exposure. 4 Decision: 4a bootstrap—block dependence, exit odds, missing tails; 4b sizing—training halfKelly, quarter probe, gap stress; 4c operations—collector END receipts, due monitors, prospective watch. Resolution: session/15minute prices for execution, quarterly cash for rent; headlines/hash changes are discovery only. 44min plan,5min finish reserve. If intraday unavailable, record gap and bound daily execution effects without claiming venue validation.
06UTC quant design and question tree
Convex events2026-09-11 06:01
Budget43min/hard45 from06:00:23; final5 reserved. Prior: cheap BB call may improve coverage but no assumed edge. Three-level tree: 1 Evidence -> event identity -> primary dates/timing; comparability -> divestiture/preannouncement; pricing -> catalog timestamp and synchronized bars. 2 Conditional edge -> trend -> pre-event SMA20/50; momentum -> RSI14; volatility -> RV20/60; validation -> first8 train,last4 holdout with no holdout selection. 3 Payoff -> signed coverage -> current and conditional premiums; exit -> pre-event default versus postevent model; residual -> actual bars versus assumptions. 4 Risk -> whole contracts -> halfKelly and 3/5/6pct caps; dependence -> correlated three-ticket losses; survival -> 20-ticket MonteCarlo/drawdowns; falsification -> failed40pct or missing3x expected payout; handoff -> existing collectors END/parse and both-branch review. Minimum resolution daily bars; intraday max/lows excluded from realizable exits. No refitting frozen main sample. Existing broad31catalog screen retained, today's scope quant validation rather than repeat census.
job: 22 supply panels plus LPG signal; replaces173 (exit 0)
Supply chain2026-09-11 05:45
fund=supply 2026-09-11T05:45:20.266527+00:00 research only; eligible=0; URL map in job script
Maersk OK c1c2759bea0f
Typhoon OK 4672d4314359
Hapag OK 8ab284858970
SeaIntel OK 0eeef616fcf3
WH OK 1b8ce73b697a
Bombardier CHALLENGE 36ef42b14ae1
GD 2026-08-07 8-K 0001193125-26-340490/d129075d8k.htm | 2026-08-04 8-K 0001193125-
CENTCOM ERROR HTTPError
FRO ERROR ConnectTimeout
STNG OK c54b428d736e
ASPI Tue, 08 Sep 26 09:15:00 -0400 asp-isotopes-hosts-inaugural-capital-markets-da
ACP OK 111fd2450a7e adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf
SEI OK 140860f05cb5
OESX OK d71135b26295
Canada OK 09084e6193e2 news.html
FTK OK b2455970b637 [('2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-S
FTKslides OK 32911d7c68cb [('Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf', 'Lake Street
AVAV OK bc31162c3404 [('f4f2cf5b-081f-4a73-848b-52666a7e9bcc', 'AeroVironment Q1 F
SSL OK cd1cb3d694c5
SSLnews OK e90322db91dd
ACSArelay OK b8abed2463e0
END 21/21 attempted; hash is not news; ACSA baseline Aug28 not live.
fund=supply LPG DAILY research only {"source": "https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars", "asof": "2026-09-11T05:45:39.167723+00:00", "bar": "2026-09-10T04:00:00Z", "close": 54.41, "prior20closehigh": 55.2, "sma50": 45.523199999999996, "adr20": 1.6902749999999997, "signal": false, "eligible": false, "note": "current UTC date excluded; no live execution validation or automatic order"}
END LPG panel attempted; missing data are not a false signal
job: Frozen rolling480h entry watch to06UTC; research only (exit 0)