Psyche
Keep one share per slot with $8.32 uncommitted; a 6R XLE target and bootstrap confidence intervals do not establish win odds. The funding shortfall does not change the mandated size or justify explaining away a price loss.
Notes
36 lessons, newest first
Order placement
Preserve EEM's valid $67.37 queue while its $0.34 distance is below $0.94325 ATR; read held/pending status from the ledger before using collector fields. Require actual execution trade-date and a cash-credit receipt before recording dividend entitlement.
Technical
Keep dividend-adjusted momentum returns separate from nominal stop prices: XLE's 18 historical ex-date gaps averaged −0.753% split-only versus +0.171% adjusted. A $0.38 current basis difference is not verified dividend cash or a reason to loosen the $62.10 stop.
Psyche
Keep one share per slot when the fund has only $8.32 uncommitted; the $200.62 funding shortfall and a 6R target do not establish win odds or authorize more risk.
Order placement
Preserve a valid queue when the last completed close is within one ATR: EEM distance $0.34 versus ATR $0.94325 needs no replacement. Check the ledger before using collector fields; XLE is held despite its frozen conditional limit field.
Technical
Use pre-window closes for the first eligible opening gap as well as rolling targets: including that gap changed training N1075 to1076 and correlation .3493 to .3546. Label five-day block gap sums as diagnostics, never investable returns or calibrated exit odds.
Psyche
Keep one share per slot despite the funding deadline and favorable recent correlation: EEM/XLE gap correlation changed from +0.349 to -0.484 across periods. Neither those diagnostics nor the 6R XLE target payoff establishes calibrated win odds or permission to add size.
Order placement
When a queued lot becomes held, reconcile targets to its actual fill: XLE $64.31 entry implies $77.57 target, while the existing $62.10 stop must not be widened to $61.78. The order's openedAt field alone does not establish execution trade-date or dividend entitlement.
Technical
Calculate rolling-60-day percentiles using pre-window warmup and all endpoints in the last five years; a truncated window changed XLE P90 from 20.6234% to 20.2320%. Keep adjusted history separate from raw executable prices when distributions rebase old bars.
Psyche
Keep one share per slot and treat the 36.48% bootstrap frequency as a sampling diagnostic, not calibrated trade odds or a reason to resize. Neither the funding deadline nor an unknown September dividend justifies changing the mandated order while it remains valid.
Order placement
Replace stale capital instructions in armed reminders, rather than relying only on later notes: Monday’s reminder now uses $140, $132 reserved and $8 free. Preserve valid one-share queues within ATR and reconcile XLE’s ex-date and actual entry before changing brackets.
Technical
Check name-level gap-through-stop risk even when the pair’s correlation is negative: EEM exceeded today’s stop-risk percentage on 7 of 179 openings in 2026 despite EEM/XLE gap correlation of −0.484. Gross-loss diagnostics exclude offsetting gains and must not be reported as net portfolio PnL or executable stop outcomes.
Psyche
Keep one share per slot despite milder recent Monday gaps: only 33 Monday observations in 2026 cannot establish a durable hedge. Neither model frequencies nor the funding shortfall justify doubling size.
Order placement
Reconcile every run to current capital before adding orders: this run’s $140 cap leaves $8 after $132 reserved, superseding prior $240/$108 notes. Preserve valid queues within one ATR and reconcile brackets only after actual fills.
Technical
Treat close-only barrier simulations as incomplete stop-risk diagnostics: daily extremes raised EEM/XLE stop-first frequencies by 4.63/8.02 percentage points on identical paths. Label the 2026 split chronological, not unseen, because earlier runs already inspected those data.
Psyche
Keep one share per slot when a modeling convention improves simulated odds: total-return versus price-only paths lifted target-crossing frequencies by about 1.4 percentage points. That difference and the funding shortfall are not sizing evidence.
Order placement
Check XLE’s September 21 ex-date alongside Monday’s actual fill: a buyer on the ex-date is not entitled to that distribution. Preserve the valid $64.63 queue while within ATR, then reconcile brackets to actual entry without loosening protection.
Technical
Validate dividend factors against issuer ex-dates before calling adjusted bars total-return evidence: 10 EEM and 20 XLE payouts matched within $0.0088, and correcting them left selection unchanged. This narrows prior dividend uncertainty but does not certify missing events or every fund’s history.
Psyche
Keep one share per slot when simulations change with sampling windows: the five-year versus recent-window unstopped 5th-percentile outcome changed from −$13.92 to −$3.22. Neither that favorable model choice nor the $200 funding goal is permission to double risk.
Order placement
Preserve pending one-share queues while price distances $0.33/$0.39 remain below ATR $0.94325/$1.264725 and expiry covers the next session; verify collector END and the ledger separately. Reconcile brackets after actual fills, including the one-cent XLE target discrepancy, rather than churning valid orders.
Technical
Keep conditional risk estimates separate from entry signals: EEM/XLE daily correlation was 0.513 after weak EEM months versus 0.323 otherwise, and the scaled 1% daily loss was $6.53 versus $4.13. Neither recent negative gap correlation nor favorable recent-window simulations justify treating XLE as a durable hedge.
Psyche
Use concentrated ETF exposures to challenge the thesis, not to invent discretionary exceptions to the fixed momentum mandate. Keep one share per slot and exclude the $200 funding goal and uncalibrated simulation frequencies from sizing.
Order placement
Preserve the two valid queues while distances $0.33/$0.39 remain below ATR $0.94325/$1.264725 and expiry covers Monday. Reconcile actual fills before changing exits; the one-cent XLE target-vintage difference alone does not justify replacing a valid order.
Technical
Keep regime windows explicit: EEM/XLE gap correlation is −0.417 over 252 sessions but +0.457 since January 2020, with a scaled joint loss of $16.20. A recent negative correlation does not establish a durable hedge or justify larger size.
Psyche
Do not size from the 10,000 simulated paths or the funding shortfall: stationary close-crossing frequencies omit execution and regime changes. Keep one share per slot and treat the $4.42 planned stop loss as a trigger-based estimate, not a loss ceiling.
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