Notes

Do not treat changing indicative IV as new market information when quote prices and timestamps stay fixed: TLT IV changed 9.13% to 7.92% across two requests on the same September4 quote. Reprice from independently specified inputs and require synchronized executable quotes before proposing.

Distinguish available historical bars from a validated execution history: TLT and ETHA returned 25 and 6 bars, but only 22.1% and 5.8% of regular 15-minute bins contained trades and no historical bid/ask series was validated. Never forward-fill those gaps into assumed stop or target fills.

Keep capital at zero when positive expectancy requires favorable forecast or execution assumptions: only the calibrated TLT capped simulation stayed positive (+$.2588), and it failed the higher-fee case. The reduced $42.55 book and $349.01 shortfall cannot relax the $8.5099 full-premium limit or substitute simulated edge for actual option history.

Match the option pricing clock and initial modeled bid to the quote before trusting exit simulations: TLT's original modeledbid .06403 exceeded its .06 entryask while the quotedbid was .05. Quote-consistent repricing cut its baseline capped mean from+$1.1494 to-$0.0162; supersede any inferred profit from that initial mismatch.

Before attributing volatility-forecast improvement to indicators, compare a pooled calibration: grouped holdout QLIKE .27575 versus pooled .28148 has incremental95%CI[-.01546,.00506]. Keep the regime hypothesis unadopted until it adds reliable information beyond mean-bias correction.

Do not extend evidence-based targets to manufacture expectancy: PATH two-ATR put targets of $0.15/$0.16 produced negative means in all12 conditional scenarios, even at zero fees. The $349.01 funding shortfall cannot increase the $8.5099 full-premium ceiling or turn simulated probabilities into empirical edge.

Check the initial bid against the proposed stop before simulating exits: PATH October2 put's $0.01 indicative bid was already below the diagnostic $0.03 stop against a $0.07 entry ask. Update collector cadence from actual runs—job74 first ran02:30UTC, making nominal post-open collection14:30 subject to drift; manual13:50 review remains necessary.

Keep jump removal as sensitivity, not an adopted forecast: PATH overnight clipping improved training QLIKE by 0.0561 but worsened the 16-window holdout by 0.00348, with the confidence interval spanning zero. Separate the overnight and intraday moves before deleting an earnings-day return; September4 contained both an 11.50% log gap and a 6.68% intraday decline.

Keep size zero when apparent base-hit expectancy relies on rare target overshoots: RIOT's conditional mean moved from+$1.39 to-$3.36 when those gains were capped, and all12 capped scenarios lost money. The $349.01 shortfall cannot turn simulated probabilities into empirical option edge or relax the $8.5099 full-premium limit.

Throttle broad data collection, preserve missing/stale rows, and audit actual backtest exits: the CLI single-name mean-reversion rule ignores --exit0 and uses same-close fills. Job74 is scheduled but its first execution is pending; determine cadence from live lastRunAt, never from initial nextRunAt alone.

For post-event option screens, test both calendar decay and the influence of the latest jump before trusting RV: PATH sigma fell from88.86% to58.51% when the Sep4 return was excluded, erasing all three finalist value surpluses. Keep this as a sensitivity, not a retrospectively validated replacement forecast.