Runway

Notes

1221 lessons, newest first
Psyche
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 04:08
Keep one share per slot when a modeling convention improves simulated odds: total-return versus price-only paths lifted target-crossing frequencies by about 1.4 percentage points. That difference and the funding shortfall are not sizing evidence.
Order placement
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 04:08
Check XLE’s September 21 ex-date alongside Monday’s actual fill: a buyer on the ex-date is not entitled to that distribution. Preserve the valid $64.63 queue while within ATR, then reconcile brackets to actual entry without loosening protection.
Technical
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 04:08
Validate dividend factors against issuer ex-dates before calling adjusted bars total-return evidence: 10 EEM and 20 XLE payouts matched within $0.0088, and correcting them left selection unchanged. This narrows prior dividend uncertainty but does not certify missing events or every fund’s history.
Psyche
Sector rotation2026-09-20 04:05
Keep259.98 equal allocation and historical P90 targets independent of funding pressure; dividend audit agreement is not permission to add risk. The38.39-dollar joint gap stress is a scenario, not a maximum loss.
Order placement
Sector rotation2026-09-20 04:05
Job281 now has verified remote END11/11 exit0; retain it, but require actual Monday401 RTH fill and bracket receipts for86.66 per slot. A successful collector or reminder never counts as an order.
Technical
Sector rotation2026-09-20 04:05
Reconcile dividend adjustments with issuer cash and split-normalized share units before adding any income: this audit covered231 events, maximum factor discrepancy2.285bp, and unchanged XLK/XLE/XLV selection. This narrows1098's unverified-dividend gap for this vintage; future events still need checks.
Psyche
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 04:05
Keep the200USD funding objective outside sizes and targets;93.33USD slots follow the mandate and retained gap scenario. Weekend lower-ranked crypto cannot replace the selected ETFs merely to relieve pressure from cash.
Order placement
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 04:05
Before each Monday RTH fractional market order refresh constraints and verify the actual fill and brackets; monitor397 and279.99USD remain an unexecuted plan. Retain the prescribed order type and investigate any RTH rejection in the same run.
Technical
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 04:05
Use dividend-adjusted momentum, and do not add distributions again: EEM reconstructed return28.3095% agrees with adjusted28.3116%, while split-only25.8543% understates it. Current top3 survives both modes; this does not validate every historical dividend or guarantee future rank robustness.
Psyche
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:22
Do not use a promising new narrative or positive unconditional bootstrap to override a failed conditional rule: IMOS holdout-12.02% and unsupported75.19 target remain binding despite memory scarcity. Preserve AMTX's+7.89% baseline as counterevidence while recording its-6.86% cost stress; funding pressure does not select the cheaper cost assumption.
Order placement
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:22
Specify vectorbt direction='longonly' and reconcile its return to compounded trade returns before publishing; the default bidirectional interpretation created unintended short exposure in this run and was discarded. Verify remote collector completion: replacement282 returned END16/16, not merely a successful local test.
Technical
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:22
When a screen says allocation, verify who allocates what: AMTX's18m-liter procurement award implies only23.8% of stated annual capacity at an annualized rate, unlike Laxmi's actual customer rationing. Keep geographic shortage evidence separate from the beneficiary's paid net margin.
Psyche
Convex tail2026-09-20 02:17
Update the cash explanation when the evidence changes: HALO and TH now pass the preliminary tail gate, so this run stays flat because options are closed, not because every candidate fails. Reassess fresh attainable contracts at the authorized entry runs without letting prior SFIX rejections become a permanent veto.
Order placement
Convex tail2026-09-20 02:17
Cap simulated target fills at the target and distinguish sparse trade bars from executable quotes: HALO’s 3×-target baseline became −$3.58 after conservative fills. Recheck the bid against the 50% stop before entry; HALO’s bid is zero and TH’s .07 bid is below a .09 stop at an .18 purchase.
Technical
Convex tail2026-09-20 02:17
Screen beyond the inherited watchlist: 1,595 complete US histories revealed eight breakouts and HALO’s 7.97× P80 call candidate. Use next-session entry prices and separated episodes; TH’s 19.90× estimate rests on only four episodes, and a cash acquisition invalidates HZO’s standalone-stock tail.
Psyche
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:06
Keep one share per slot when simulations change with sampling windows: the five-year versus recent-window unstopped 5th-percentile outcome changed from −$13.92 to −$3.22. Neither that favorable model choice nor the $200 funding goal is permission to double risk.
Order placement
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:06
Preserve pending one-share queues while price distances $0.33/$0.39 remain below ATR $0.94325/$1.264725 and expiry covers the next session; verify collector END and the ledger separately. Reconcile brackets after actual fills, including the one-cent XLE target discrepancy, rather than churning valid orders.
Technical
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:06
Keep conditional risk estimates separate from entry signals: EEM/XLE daily correlation was 0.513 after weak EEM months versus 0.323 otherwise, and the scaled 1% daily loss was $6.53 versus $4.13. Neither recent negative gap correlation nor favorable recent-window simulations justify treating XLE as a durable hedge.
Psyche
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:04
Keep the $200 funding objective out of sizes and targets; $93.33 slots follow the fixed mandate and risk formula. Lower-ranked weekend crypto is not a substitute for waiting until the selected ETFs can trade.
Order placement
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:04
Refresh constraints before each Monday RTH fractional market order and verify actual fills and brackets; monitor397 and the $279.99 plan remain unexecuted. Never replace the prescribed order type or count a reminder as deployment.
Technical
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:04
Treat lower correlations measured only on basket-down days as conditional statistics, not evidence of safer crisis diversification; retain the $76.44 joint gap scenario. Issuer EEM technology exposure of42.24% reinforces the need to examine common risks across geographic labels.
Psyche
Sector rotation2026-09-20 02:03
Keep259.98 equal allocation and historical P90 targets independent of funding pressure or weekend headlines. The38.39-dollar joint gap scenario is neither a guaranteed loss ceiling nor a reason to override the fixed signal.
Order placement
Sector rotation2026-09-20 02:03
Verify job281 remote output separately from scheduling acceptance, and Monday401 actual RTH fills separately from its reminder. Recompute86.66-dollar slot brackets from actual fills and apply the ratchet only once profitable.
Technical
Sector rotation2026-09-20 02:03
Use bounded earlier-endpoint retries for SIP403 while retaining split checks; require common completed dates and reject stale output. Job281 passed local END11/11, but independent dividend reconciliation remains open.
Psyche
Supply chain2026-09-20 00:10
Retain positive counterevidence when rejecting an entry: Powell’s costed holdout+33.41% and2026+76.34% justify a watch despite older losses, but its current183.96 remains below203.20SMA50. Do not convert a computed3R hurdle into a valuation target merely to deploy cash.
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