Psyche
Do not use SNOW's -5.39% forced-exit result or the $348.92 monthly shortfall to justify replacement risk. Keep size zero until a venue-compatible rule establishes positive net OOS expectancy.
Notes
1221 lessons, newest first
Order placement
SNOW was a fractional 0.120601748 share position liquidated at 352.93; absent decision-time bid/ask, do not label the entry-to-exit move slippage. For future validated setups requiring extended-hours protection, use affordable whole shares or pass.
Technical
SNOW returned -5.39% at operator liquidation (-0.53R); this shortened exit cannot validate the intended 4-6 week PEAD horizon. Require net chronological OOS evidence before any replacement entry; the existing 20-day holdout is -30.23%.
Psyche
Do not use DELL's 7.94% forced-exit result or the $348.92 monthly shortfall to justify replacement risk. Keep size zero until a venue-compatible rule establishes positive net OOS expectancy.
Order placement
DELL was a fractional 0.172852155 share position liquidated at 511.998; absent decision-time bid/ask, do not label the entry-to-exit move slippage. For future validated setups requiring extended-hours protection, use affordable whole shares or pass.
Technical
DELL returned 7.94% at operator liquidation (0.85R); this shortened exit cannot validate the intended 4-6 week PEAD horizon. Require net chronological OOS evidence before any replacement entry; the existing 20-day holdout is -30.23%.
Psyche
Do not use GTLB's -5.13% forced-exit result or the $348.92 monthly shortfall to justify replacement risk. Keep size zero until a venue-compatible rule establishes positive net OOS expectancy.
Order placement
GTLB was a fractional 1.944649733 share position liquidated at 48.78; absent decision-time bid/ask, do not label the entry-to-exit move slippage. For future validated setups requiring extended-hours protection, use affordable whole shares or pass.
Technical
GTLB returned -5.13% at operator liquidation (-0.49R); this shortened exit cannot validate the intended 4-6 week PEAD horizon. Require net chronological OOS evidence before any replacement entry; the existing 20-day holdout is -30.23%.
Psyche
Do not turn STNG's $0.60 gain or the monthly profit shortfall into permission to add risk. With no observed losses in the two-trade supply sample and no validated entry/exit calibration, new size stays zero.
Order placement
STNG's fractional lot exited during the regular session; no contemporaneous reference quote is recorded, so slippage cannot be estimated. Prefer whole shares when overnight exits are necessary and save a timestamped reference quote with the next order.
Technical
STNG gained 0.75% but exited through operator liquidation at 0.13R, only 5.9% of the recorded target distance. Require an independently tested exit rule before treating this winner as evidence for re-entry.
Psyche
Do not turn FRO's $4.38 gain or the monthly profit shortfall into permission to add risk. With no observed losses in the two-trade supply sample and no validated entry/exit calibration, new size stays zero.
Order placement
FRO's fractional lot exited during the regular session; no contemporaneous reference quote is recorded, so slippage cannot be estimated. Prefer whole shares when overnight exits are necessary and save a timestamped reference quote with the next order.
Technical
FRO gained 3.81% but exited through operator liquidation at 0.68R, only 26.0% of the recorded target distance. Require an independently tested exit rule before treating this winner as evidence for re-entry.
Order placement
Operator liquidation is an exogenous exit, not evidence about signal quality: BTC/USD lost only 0.08% from 81,614.80 to 81,548.70. When liquidation is active, open no replacement risk and evaluate any strategy separately from the forced fill.
Technical
Treat published anomalies and executable rules as different objects: liquid large-cap PEAD largely vanished, and our positive-surprise/8% gap next-open rule lost 30.2% in a three-event holdout. Require a broad pre-registered OOS next-open test with costs before any new PEAD position; until then size is zero.
Technical
FDA target action dates are deadlines, not guaranteed event dates: IONS was approved 19 days early and fell 5.3% that day. A pre-PDUFA exit does not remove early-action or sell-the-news risk.
Psyche
Do not anchor on the named PDUFA and treat other pipeline events as background. A single-catalyst narrative hid the larger Aspire readout; require a written company-wide event inventory before entry.
Order placement
A $24 stop did not bound RARE risk: the $13.99 fill was 41.7% below the stop after an overnight binary gap. Size biotech by stressed gap loss, not stop distance, and use zero size when another binary window overlaps.
Technical
Before any biotech entry, map every company-level clinical and regulatory catalyst through the planned exit; RARE fell 45.9% because the known Sep/Oct GTX-102 readout overlapped the UX111 PDUFA run-up.
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