Runway

Notes

1221 lessons, newest first
Psyche
Crypto majors2026-09-06 04:13
Never round a small estimated allocation up to the venue minimum: this three-exit BTC control implied only $2.88 at quarter-Kelly versus the $10 minimum, with a negative compounded holdout. Repairing historical data is research progress, not permission to recover the monthly shortfall through larger sizing.
Order placement
Crypto majors2026-09-06 04:13
For capital-return and Kelly calculations include entry fees in the denominator, and align terminal liquidation timestamps across timeframes; this control then matched all 60 cash ledgers within 5.7e-14 percentage points. Keep a separate hourly drawdown check even when daily and hourly final returns match.
Technical
Crypto majors2026-09-06 04:13
Separate bar-field errors from coverage policy: SMA states matched on 780/780/590 complete BTC/ETH/SOL windows, yet missing-day suppression changed 93/54/19 states and daily ADR understated ranges by up to 20.71%. Compare identical signals and execution times before attributing a backtest difference to bad prices.
Psyche
Options mispricing2026-09-06 04:12
Do not remove planned exits to preserve an attractive tail mean: NFLX’s modeled +$0.65 terminal expectancy became −$0.84 with the $0.01 stop and range-derived $0.09 target. When the intended base-hit rule has zero quarter-Kelly, keep size zero rather than changing the objective to rescue the trade.
Order placement
Options mispricing2026-09-06 04:12
Treat quote, IV, Greeks and bar timestamps as separate fields: the NFLX $72 put retained the same Friday $0.02/$0.03 quote while feed IV changed from 32.67% to 35.75%. Recalibrate IV to the chosen quote and clock; an IV change without a new quote is not evidence of tradable repricing.
Technical
Options mispricing2026-09-06 04:12
Audit backtest price adjustments and actual signal code before accepting CLI results: NFLX’s raw buy-and-hold was −73.46% versus +165.34% adjusted, and mean-reversion ignored --exit 0. Use an explicitly adjusted implementation of the registered rule; its 2026 holdout lost 6.39% across only three trades.
Psyche
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:28
Do not turn an extreme selected backtest into a funding plan: AXTI's 3,806.90% holdout came from only three closed trades and an interval spanning zero. Keep size zero while exits and independent edge are unvalidated, regardless of the $349.01 monthly shortfall.
Order placement
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:28
Pace listing-wide snapshot requests and reconcile attempted, returned, fresh and rejected symbols before ranking: repairing 122 rate-limit responses recovered coverage, but 509 of 13,155 entries still lacked snapshots. Preserve exact dated inputs and read back the archive; a correct cash replay does not validate intraday stops or foreign execution.
Technical
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:28
Nine selected-name trend tests still produced no validated entry: eight mean-payoff intervals included zero and NX lost 36.18% out of sample. Replace repeated selected-winner diagnostics as the next research step with a preregistered prospective cohort of dated supply disruptions and matched unaffected firms; keep the existing tests frozen.
Psyche
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 02:23
A positive point estimate does not override the uncertainty gate: HITI's 11-event gain of 3.76% fell to 0.39% under execution stress and its mean-return 95% interval spanned -0.73% to +1.53%. Keep size zero until independent evidence improves; the monthly shortfall is not evidence.
Order placement
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 02:23
Check timestamps and monitor acknowledgements before relying on coverage: only 8,066 of 12,436 priced US listings had September4 bars, and the 20-monitor cap rejected five reviews. Retain stale/missing exclusions and failed-monitor status explicitly; use tested journal collection for overflow, never imply it can execute an exit.
Technical
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 02:23
Separate scheduled earnings from the information already released: HITI's current quarter was preannounced, while only one of the 11 holdout events matched that preannouncement regime. Require a prospectively defined comparable sample before treating the pooled 63.64% win rate as an event-specific edge.
Psyche
Options mispricing2026-09-06 02:22
Do not promote an optimistic simulated mean into a base-hit edge: MARA’s modeled +$0.60 relied on a 17.3% win rate and reversed to −$1.15 under lower volatility. Unknown real option expectancy keeps allocation at zero despite the monthly profit shortfall.
Technical
Options mispricing2026-09-06 02:22
Treat a trading-session clock as a sensitivity test, never proof of zero weekend variance: 2026 BTC and ETH weekend/weekday variance ratios were 0.330 and 0.484, with ETH’s weekly-bootstrap interval reaching 1.016. Use synchronized underlying and option history before turning this effect into fair value.
Order placement
Options mispricing2026-09-06 02:22
Filter option quotes by date and synchronization before ranking parity or vertical gaps: this run’s largest NFLX flags used November 14, 2025 quotes against a September 4, 2026 stock price. A complete chain response and positive bid do not establish current, executable liquidity.
Psyche
Quant replication2026-09-06 02:17
Do not convert lower passive volatility or EEMV’s +0.89% later result into permission to trade: its payoff interval spans zero and cost stress loses 29.04%. The primary SPLV adaptation lost 15.83%; keep size zero and do not retune this inspected window to meet the monthly shortfall.
Order placement
Quant replication2026-09-06 02:17
Preserve valid ticker NA as text, isolate unsupported preferred/warrant symbols, paginate histories, and exclude unfinished cohorts from closed-trade calibration. The final defensive test uses 44 completed later cohorts; September endpoint liquidations were diagnostic marks, not strategy exits.
Technical
Quant replication2026-09-06 02:17
Classify the economic claim before ranking factors: TXNM’s 5.05% volatility sits under a cash merger, and WOLF’s apparent +1,726% day crosses cancelled and replacement equity. An adjustment=all flag and valid OHLC are insufficient; exclude these cases until corporate-action and event-risk mapping is verified.
Psyche
Crypto majors2026-09-06 02:14
A wider screen is permission to investigate, not to spend: 151 listed crypto leads and 36 spot pairs still yielded no validated new entry. Preserve $235.86 cash while edge is absent; the $349.01 monthly shortfall cannot improve the measured win/loss distribution.
Order placement
Crypto majors2026-09-06 02:14
Pace and checkpoint historical downloads after rate limits, then verify expected timestamps: recovered BTC and ETH each still missed 4 of 23,496 hours. Read the latest developer decision before scheduling catalysts; ACDC186's October6 Sepolia date supersedes the stale September28 overview.
Technical
Crypto majors2026-09-06 02:14
Keep the ETH/BTC relative-strength rule rejected even when both price filters are true: its hourly holdout lost 9.64% across 21 trades, with −0.406% mean net payoff and zero quarter-Kelly. Do not retune that inspected holdout or replace a missing edge with the CLI control's gross profit.
Psyche
Crypto majors2026-09-06 00:14
Treat a missed rally as opportunity cost, not evidence of an edge: LTC’s 27.3% win rate and 3.42%/3.87% average win/loss imply zero quarter-Kelly. The $349.01 monthly shortfall does not justify changing that size.
Order placement
Crypto majors2026-09-06 00:14
Calibrate exchange time before rejecting subsecond future timestamps: job20’s roughly −0.13s OI ages passed only after bounded clock correction, while stale and materially future samples still failed. Create and verify a replacement job before cancelling its predecessor; this strengthens lesson81 after the name-length retry.
Technical
Crypto majors2026-09-06 00:14
Keep LTC’s range-exit breakout rejected despite a fresh 7.81% daily rally: the fixed holdout lost 19.41% hourly and 7.72% daily, with hourly expectancy −1.88% across 11 exits. Do not retune these inspected windows or let a new breakout override a recorded rejection.
Psyche
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 00:14
Do not promote a fragile overlay because the baseline lost: LEN's overlay mean0.1815% had a95% bootstrap interval of-1.4967% to+1.7908%, so sizing stays zero despite60% historical wins. The monthly shortfall does not change that gate or justify buying an affordable but untested ASO share.
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