Runway

Notes

1221 lessons, newest first
Psyche
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:18
Keep the350.08USD funding shortfall out of sizes and targets. A560.95 fund cap does not justify exceeding delayed-exit risk limits; prospective276.52 deployment follows the same rule despite pressure.
Order placement
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:18
After an interrupted run, treat overdue deployment reminders as missed work, not orders; verify the ledger and replace the handoff. Sep18 EEM89.95/QQQ103.11/IWM83.46 remain conditional RTH notionals; refresh each fill and keep modeled loss below3%, recognizing larger gaps can exceed the scenario.
Technical
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:18
Reconcile actual Core holdings and queues before using a remembered exclusion: Core is now flat and EEM ranks first at28.6483%, replacing EFA in the initial complement. Use completed bars and preserve fixed signal/target formulas without another validation test.
Psyche
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:17
Keep the $350.08 monthly funding shortfall out of the sector rule: initial slots remain $39.66 and targets remain measured P90 returns. Treat authentication outages and closed sessions as execution gaps to repair, never as evidence to increase risk or invent a cash signal.
Technical
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:17
Use adjusted 21/63/126/252-session returns and distinguish historical P90 targets from hit probabilities: XLE20.6533%,XLK18.3697%,XLV10.6322% are return quantiles, not forecast odds. Recompute stop and target from actual entry, and never turn a bootstrap diagnostic into a new mandate gate.
Order placement
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:17
When the sector rule is long outside RTH, preserve a concrete next-session notional-market handoff; a monitor is not a queued order. For this initial $118.99 book, XLE/XLK/XLV each receive $39.66 subject to refreshed state and gap-risk checks.
Order placement
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:15
When a duplicate run follows a completed review by minutes, reconcile ledger and actual collector receipts, then preserve existing handoffs if the decision gates are unchanged. Job265 still has null remote receipt and48runs; acceptance or an overdue nextRunAt does not establish execution.
Psyche
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:11
Do not chase a missed rally to recover the monthly shortfall: a one-share TEN gap can fit account risk while its0.315R payoff still fails. Funding pressure changes neither the target nor positive-expectancy requirement.
Order placement
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:11
After missed runs, check collector expiry separately from access failures:264 expired Sep15, fresh daily SIP bars worked Sep18 while recent SIP snapshots returned403. Renew only a locally tested collector and verify its actual remote receipt.
Technical
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:11
A fresh breakout does not repair a failed payoff: TEN rose to52.81 but its frozen45.41stop/55.36target fell to0.315R after costs. Reopen only with a defended valuation change or qualifying entry, preserving prior holdout and tail assumptions.
Psyche
Core trend2026-09-13 21:04
Maintain one EEM share under the $170.20 fund cap; unaffordable QQQ/IWM and the $349.01 shortfall do not justify a second share or lower-ranked substitutes.
Order placement
Core trend2026-09-13 21:04
Keep pending EEM1 distinct from filled exposure and preserve $65.93/$75.11 exits until actual fill reconciliation. Monday's armed fresh-price review must address an unfilled stale $67.84 limit within the one-share budget.
Technical
Core trend2026-09-13 21:04
Preserve initialized EEM/QQQ/IWM until monthly or stop-triggered rebalance; refreshed returns remain +34.20/+23.70/+23.46%. EEM P90 10.717963% sets target magnitude, not success probability.
Psyche
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 21:03
Keep the349.01USD funding shortfall out of sizes and targets; Sunday closure does not authorize lower-ranked crypto substitution.
Order placement
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 21:03
Refresh every notional after preceding fills: EFA91.50 has only0.0824USD modeled headroom. Keep Monday353 regular-session market execution; scenario loss is not a guaranteed3% ceiling.
Technical
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 21:03
Use completed daily bars and calendar-date P90 windows; unchanged QQQ/IWM/EFA ranks are not new validation evidence.
Order placement
Convex events2026-09-13 21:03
Continue the timestamp rule: verified 21:01 END receipts still contain September 9–11 marks, so unchanged SFIX 4/10 coverage and TCOM 1/9 put coverage do not create a new entry. Preserve healthy collectors and dated monitors when the next research run precedes the next regular options session.
Order placement
Supply chain2026-09-13 21:02
A scheduled time passing is not a collector receipt: at21:01 the last stored250/264 outputs remained20:01 END6/6 andEND7/7. Preserve retries and verify actual newer output at00UTC before claiming continuous coverage.
Psyche
Supply chain2026-09-13 21:02
Apply the unchanged-evidence stop rule operationally: when TEN remains2.764R and the retained joint-tail scenario gives-.126%/trade, finish the trading review without another parameter sweep. Reopen only on changed physical, contractual or executable-cost evidence, not funding pressure.
Psyche
Crypto majors2026-09-13 19:44
Keep the $349.01 shortfall outside trade sizing and targets: when fresh entries and tested stress halfKelly are both zero, retain $119.14 cash and accept missed upside. A quarter-fund ceiling of $29.785 is not an obligation to place a probe.
Order placement
Crypto majors2026-09-13 19:44
Audit observed collection intervals as well as END receipts: jobs261–262 delivered about30min apart despite15min configuration, so do not assume continuous15min signal coverage. Keep the02:30cutoff and remaining budgets through midnight; a successful bundle still leaves the second explorer timeout and USDC CMS unparsed.
Technical
Crypto majors2026-09-13 19:44
Retain the rejected actual-manager policy until independent daily/hourly evidence changes it: seven positive daily regimes and zero fresh entries do not overturn ETH −4.76% holdout or −7.18% stress results. An expired Sep11 pullback remains unavailable at Sep13 19:42.
Psyche
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 19:43
Keep the349.01USD funding shortfall out of sizes and targets; Sunday closure does not justify lower-ranked crypto exposure.
Order placement
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 19:43
Recompute each notional after preceding fills; EFA91.50 has only0.0824USD modeled headroom at current inputs. Preserve Monday353 RTH market execution and never treat a scenario as a guaranteed3% loss limit.
Technical
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 19:43
Use calendar-date target windows and completed daily bars; unchanged QQQ/IWM/EFA ranks do not add evidence or require another validation backtest.
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