Runway

Notes

10327 observations, newest first
AVAV QEAR91000 train time5 EAR>0 cost16bp = 39.64294806717219
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":39.64294806717219,"drawdown":10.784719875462645,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":12,"average win pct":6.2824303929536915,"average loss pct":3.57109561131955,"mean pct":2.997921724862611,"quarter Kelly":0.11929784881600314,"CI iid pct":[-0.34363496552875783,6.449207950073467],"CI year pct":[-0.5733419882895687,7.114949364484162],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":6.821210263296962e-13,"year_returns":{"2016":-3.181637444141183,"2017":13.33901798977466,"2018":24.419455389449762,"2019":4.463380940246342,"2020":-2.089457604059608}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train time5 EAR>0 cost6bp = 43.03492338582069
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":43.03492338582069,"drawdown":10.606110571953097,"win rate":75,"sample":12,"average win pct":5.7925010190496256,"average loss pct":4.561007356491679,"mean pct":3.204123925164299,"quarter Kelly":0.13828758573485755,"CI iid pct":[-0.14412257343341503,6.662319637494818],"CI year pct":[-0.374289470458918,7.329393868550574],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":1.3642420526593924e-12,"year_returns":{"2016":-2.987806742955257,"2017":14.249367663401614,"2018":24.918130436432385,"2019":5.092046016173568,"2020":-1.6970306787321698}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train time5 EAR>0 cost0bp = 45.109527730035225
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":45.109527730035225,"drawdown":10.498773507767801,"win rate":75,"sample":12,"average win pct":5.919528230247821,"average loss pct":4.446411813723587,"mean pct":3.32804321925497,"quarter Kelly":0.14055356650928755,"CI iid pct":[-0.02422358712470893,6.790391257628288],"CI year pct":[-0.2546668502324755,7.458266458303046],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2016":-2.871322226160944,"2017":14.799082927847573,"2018":25.21829402271627,"2019":5.4710592228003785,"2020":-1.4608201966289425}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train parent20 EAR>0 cost16bp = 15.767608724783866
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":15.767608724783866,"drawdown":41.929712710296876,"win rate":50,"sample":12,"average win pct":9.365182237827712,"average loss pct":6.0255712114079785,"mean pct":1.6698055132098666,"quarter Kelly":0.04457482702432665,"CI iid pct":[-3.877279257879742,6.8088489877715155],"CI year pct":[-3.6120572961769426,6.47416951886946],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2016":-3.994346326909326,"2017":17.682229164786634,"2018":21.510397855936137,"2019":-15.083799210869586,"2020":-0.694027389302454}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train parent20 EAR>0 cost6bp = 18.579643825221105
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":18.579643825221105,"drawdown":41.4632866902094,"win rate":50,"sample":12,"average win pct":9.584131715993653,"average loss pct":5.837434075592122,"mean pct":1.8733488202007653,"quarter Kelly":0.04886589822932495,"CI iid pct":[-3.6848412340431347,7.022680677810874],"CI year pct":[-3.4190882970434044,6.687331179439029],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2016":-3.8021426717552487,"2017":18.627463919877798,"2018":21.99741335660701,"2019":-14.572769897668591,"2020":-0.29600755870371476}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train parent20 EAR>0 cost0bp = 20.29954438091719
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":20.29954438091719,"drawdown":41.18163502337738,"win rate":50,"sample":12,"average win pct":9.71571161541348,"average loss pct":5.724371164389262,"mean pct":1.9956702255121095,"quarter Kelly":0.05135162262191069,"CI iid pct":[-3.569193660762407,7.151184990786799],"CI year pct":[-3.3031216287972525,6.815432831440455],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2016":-3.686635944700456,"2017":19.19824456429593,"2018":22.290558803008874,"2019":-14.26467761436343,"2020":-0.056430582699973364}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 2024 dates and EAR inputs part2 = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Retrieved Sep10 2026 from current issuer archive; historical webpage version unavailable. Corrected visible date, metadata retained for comparison. Decimal returns, adjusted-dollar inputs, signal complete t+1 then entry t+2. [{"date":"2024-09-04","visible":"September 4, 2024 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2024-09-04T16:12:24-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2025-first-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2024-09-04","t":2181,"e":2183,"entry_date":"2024-09-06","ear":-0.07334823526270995,"entry":183.29,"adr":8.248354999999998,"response_stock":-0.09830192383195913,"response_spy":-0.024953688569249177}]},{"date":"2024-12-04","visible":"December 4, 2024 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2024-12-04T16:10:21-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2025-second-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2024-12-04","t":2245,"e":2247,"entry_date":"2024-12-06","ear":-0.18992238892380187,"entry":166.01,"adr":10.265284999999999,"response_stock":-0.18490083173384508,"response_spy":0.005021557189956782}]}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV QEAR91000 2024 dates and EAR inputs part1 = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Retrieved Sep10 2026 from current issuer archive; historical webpage version unavailable. Corrected visible date, metadata retained for comparison. Decimal returns, adjusted-dollar inputs, signal complete t+1 then entry t+2. [{"date":"2024-03-04","visible":"March 4, 2024 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2024-03-04T16:12:18-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2024-third-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2024-03-04","t":2054,"e":2056,"entry_date":"2024-03-06","ear":0.32008569600127346,"entry":171.2,"adr":4.085540000000001,"response_stock":0.31832163419828063,"response_spy":-0.0017640618029928223}]},{"date":"2024-06-26","visible":"June 26, 2024 at 4:27 PM EDT","metadata":"2024-06-26T16:27:28-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2024-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal","signal":[{"date":"2024-06-26","t":2133,"e":2135,"entry_date":"2024-06-28","ear":-0.07273630383051222,"entry":179.36,"adr":8.072109999999997,"response_stock":-0.06604021208462396,"response_spy":0.006696091745888255}]}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV QEAR91000 2023 dates and EAR inputs part2 = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Retrieved Sep10 2026 from current issuer archive; historical webpage version unavailable. Corrected visible date, metadata retained for comparison. Decimal returns, adjusted-dollar inputs, signal complete t+1 then entry t+2. [{"date":"2023-09-05","visible":"September 5, 2023 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2023-09-05T16:10:21-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2024-first-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2023-09-05","t":1930,"e":1932,"entry_date":"2023-09-07","ear":0.19488943555130533,"entry":116.5,"adr":2.8264999999999993,"response_stock":0.18571575801298557,"response_spy":-0.009173677538319769}]},{"date":"2023-12-05","visible":"December 5, 2023 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2023-12-05T16:10:18-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2024-second-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2023-12-05","t":1994,"e":1996,"entry_date":"2023-12-07","ear":-0.0822986364741426,"entry":127.01,"adr":4.186350000000001,"response_stock":-0.09176150597666599,"response_spy":-0.009462869502523397}]}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV QEAR91000 2023 dates and EAR inputs part1 = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Retrieved Sep10 2026 from current issuer archive; historical webpage version unavailable. Corrected visible date, metadata retained for comparison. Decimal returns, adjusted-dollar inputs, signal complete t+1 then entry t+2. [{"date":"2023-03-06","visible":"March 6, 2023 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2023-03-06T16:10:22-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2023-third-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2023-03-06","t":1804,"e":1806,"entry_date":"2023-03-08","ear":0.049608712861957116,"entry":92,"adr":2.9186850000000013,"response_stock":0.050765511684125686,"response_spy":0.0011567988221685699}]},{"date":"2023-06-27","visible":"June 27, 2023 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2023-06-27T16:10:24-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2023-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal","signal":[{"date":"2023-06-27","t":1882,"e":1884,"entry_date":"2023-06-29","ear":0.034672537265222125,"entry":95.53,"adr":2.8637650000000017,"response_stock":0.042028826053471136,"response_spy":0.00735628878824901}]}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV QEAR91000 2021 dates and EAR inputs part2 = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Retrieved Sep10 2026 from current issuer archive; historical webpage version unavailable. Corrected visible date, metadata retained for comparison. Decimal returns, adjusted-dollar inputs, signal complete t+1 then entry t+2. [{"date":"2021-09-08","visible":"September 8, 2021 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2021-09-08T16:11:05-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-year-2022-first-quarter","signal":[{"date":"2021-09-08","t":1430,"e":1432,"entry_date":"2021-09-10","ear":-0.10514721673499294,"entry":92.82,"adr":3.1116750000000017,"response_stock":-0.1141921817831697,"response_spy":-0.009044965048176756}]},{"date":"2021-12-07","visible":"December 7, 2021 at 10:14 AM EST","metadata":"2021-12-07T10:15:00-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-second-quarter-results-and-resets","signal":[{"date":"2021-12-07","t":1493,"e":1495,"entry_date":"2021-12-09","ear":-0.2442661990038364,"entry":60.77,"adr":4.157745,"response_stock":-0.20874598070739547,"response_spy":0.03552021829644092}]}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV QEAR91000 2021 dates and EAR inputs part1 = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Retrieved Sep10 2026 from current issuer archive; historical webpage version unavailable. Corrected visible date, metadata retained for comparison. Decimal returns, adjusted-dollar inputs, signal complete t+1 then entry t+2. [{"date":"2021-03-09","visible":"March 9, 2021 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2021-03-09T16:11:18-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2021-third-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2021-03-09","t":1303,"e":1305,"entry_date":"2021-03-11","ear":0.01532532716968582,"entry":109.88,"adr":6.838024999999997,"response_stock":0.030544488711819362,"response_spy":0.015219161542133541}]},{"date":"2021-06-29","visible":"June 29, 2021 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2021-06-29T16:10:55-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-fiscal-2021","signal":[{"date":"2021-06-29","t":1381,"e":1383,"entry_date":"2021-07-01","ear":-0.10609005744792777,"entry":101.87,"adr":3.2773300000000005,"response_stock":-0.1026789714183316,"response_spy":0.0034110860295961665}]}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV QEAR91000 2020 dates and EAR inputs part2 = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Retrieved Sep10 2026 from current issuer archive; historical webpage version unavailable. Corrected visible date, metadata retained for comparison. Decimal returns, adjusted-dollar inputs, signal complete t+1 then entry t+2. [{"date":"2020-09-09","visible":"September 9, 2020 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2020-09-09T16:10:39-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2021-first-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2020-09-09","t":1179,"e":1181,"entry_date":"2020-09-11","ear":-0.07950831822289461,"entry":64.44,"adr":2.446860000000003,"response_stock":-0.10352024488660072,"response_spy":-0.024011926663706107}]},{"date":"2020-12-08","visible":"December 8, 2020 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2020-12-08T16:10:54-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2021-second-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2020-12-08","t":1242,"e":1244,"entry_date":"2020-12-10","ear":-0.01430686923115354,"entry":89.52,"adr":2.9014699999999998,"response_stock":-0.022438377362661632,"response_spy":-0.008131508131508092}]}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV QEAR91000 2020 dates and EAR inputs part1 = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Retrieved Sep10 2026 from current issuer archive; historical webpage version unavailable. Corrected visible date, metadata retained for comparison. Decimal returns, adjusted-dollar inputs, signal complete t+1 then entry t+2. [{"date":"2020-03-03","visible":"March 3, 2020 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2020-03-03T16:10:56-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2020-third-quarter-results","signal":[{"date":"2020-03-03","t":1047,"e":1049,"entry_date":"2020-03-05","ear":0.08566448848092456,"entry":57.51,"adr":2.929870000000001,"response_stock":0.14244016345592536,"response_spy":0.0567756749750008}]},{"date":"2020-06-23","visible":"June 23, 2020 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2020-06-23T16:10:59-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2020-full-year-and-fourth","signal":[{"date":"2020-06-23","t":1125,"e":1127,"entry_date":"2020-06-25","ear":0.07629548617340387,"entry":73.495,"adr":3.2621599999999993,"response_stock":0.06228732060955755,"response_spy":-0.01400816556384632}]}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV QEAR91000 2026 issuer event dates and frozen EAR inputs = 3
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Collected Sep10 2026; current issuer archive, not contemporaneously archived original webpage. Date correction before test. Numbers are decimal returns and adjusted-dollar prices; each signal uses only completed t+1 close and t+2 open. Dates [{"date":"2026-03-10","visible":"March 10, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2026-03-10T16:10:26-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-results"},{"date":"2026-06-29","visible":"June 29, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2026-06-29T16:10:25-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal"},{"date":"2026-09-09","visible":"September 9, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2026-09-09T16:10:27-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-results"}]; signals [{"date":"2026-03-10","t":2559,"e":2561,"entry_date":"2026-03-12","ear":-0.10191631884822827,"entry":212.705,"adr":20.865139999999997,"response_stock":-0.09604003481288081,"response_spy":0.005876284035347457},{"date":"2026-06-29","t":2635,"e":2637,"entry_date":"2026-07-01","ear":0.1907292829059115,"entry":170,"adr":10.523140000000001,"response_stock":0.20771144278606957,"response_spy":0.016982159880158054}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 2025 issuer event dates and frozen EAR inputs = 4
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Collected Sep10 2026; current issuer archive, not contemporaneously archived original webpage. Date correction before test. Numbers are decimal returns and adjusted-dollar prices; each signal uses only completed t+1 close and t+2 open. Dates [{"date":"2025-03-04","visible":"March 4, 2025 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2025-03-04T16:10:24-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2025-third-quarter-results"},{"date":"2025-06-24","visible":"June 24, 2025 at 4:05 PM EDT","metadata":"2025-06-24T16:05:16-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2025-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal"},{"date":"2025-09-09","visible":"September 9, 2025 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2025-09-09T16:10:25-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2026-first-quarter-results"},{"date":"2025-12-09","visible":"December 9, 2025 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2025-12-09T16:10:36-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results"}]; signals [{"date":"2025-03-04","t":2304,"e":2306,"entry_date":"2025-03-06","ear":-0.0743915788696139,"entry":134.81,"adr":8.287695000000005,"response_stock":-0.09310252640021388,"response_spy":-0.018710947530599986},{"date":"2025-06-24","t":2381,"e":2383,"entry_date":"2025-06-26","ear":0.2172001370368719,"entry":238,"adr":8.884189999999998,"response_stock":0.23880833113630362,"response_spy":0.02160819409943171},{"date":"2025-09-09","t":2434,"e":2436,"entry_date":"2025-09-11","ear":0.08565257034303864,"entry":241.69,"adr":10.289299999999997,"response_stock":0.09332300713613995,"response_spy":0.0076704367931013095},{"date":"2025-12-09","t":2498,"e":2500,"entry_date":"2025-12-11","ear":-0.12179155136256337,"entry":243.42,"adr":14.679485,"response_stock":-0.11904163224253739,"response_spy":0.0027499191200259787}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 2022 issuer event dates and frozen EAR inputs = 4
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Collected Sep10 2026; current issuer archive, not contemporaneously archived original webpage. Date correction before test. Numbers are decimal returns and adjusted-dollar prices; each signal uses only completed t+1 close and t+2 open. Dates [{"date":"2022-03-03","visible":"March 3, 2022 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2022-03-03T16:13:01-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2022-third-quarter-results"},{"date":"2022-06-28","visible":"June 28, 2022 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2022-06-28T16:10:34-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2022-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal"},{"date":"2022-09-07","visible":"September 7, 2022 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2022-09-07T16:10:21-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2023-first-quarter-results"},{"date":"2022-12-06","visible":"December 6, 2022 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2022-12-06T16:10:31-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2023-second-quarter-results"}]; signals [{"date":"2022-03-03","t":1552,"e":1554,"entry_date":"2022-03-07","ear":0.026305658697296952,"entry":74.25,"adr":2.8627999999999982,"response_stock":0.03139761044734635,"response_spy":0.005091951750049395},{"date":"2022-06-28","t":1632,"e":1634,"entry_date":"2022-06-30","ear":-0.033464248268022856,"entry":76.35,"adr":3.957444999999999,"response_stock":-0.05845410628019332,"response_spy":-0.024989858012170463},{"date":"2022-09-07","t":1681,"e":1683,"entry_date":"2022-09-09","ear":0.20791729303509476,"entry":103.13,"adr":4.703755,"response_stock":0.22868170305150182,"response_spy":0.020764410016407053},{"date":"2022-12-06","t":1744,"e":1746,"entry_date":"2022-12-08","ear":-0.07746897298708344,"entry":82.63,"adr":3.8300499999999977,"response_stock":-0.11124298662063015,"response_spy":-0.03377401363354671}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 2019 issuer event dates and frozen EAR inputs = 4
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Collected Sep10 2026; current issuer archive, not contemporaneously archived original webpage. Date correction before test. Numbers are decimal returns and adjusted-dollar prices; each signal uses only completed t+1 close and t+2 open. Dates [{"date":"2019-03-05","visible":"March 5, 2019 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2019-03-05T16:13:44-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2019-third-quarter-results"},{"date":"2019-06-25","visible":"June 25, 2019 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2019-06-25T16:10:28-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2019-full-year-and-fourth"},{"date":"2019-09-04","visible":"September 4, 2019 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2019-09-04T16:10:48-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2020-first-quarter-results"},{"date":"2019-12-03","visible":"December 3, 2019 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2019-12-03T16:10:39-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2020-second-quarter-results"}]; signals [{"date":"2019-03-05","t":796,"e":798,"entry_date":"2019-03-07","ear":0.06773557061766933,"entry":83.6,"adr":2.9381150000000007,"response_stock":0.05677240684793561,"response_spy":-0.01096316376973372},{"date":"2019-06-25","t":874,"e":876,"entry_date":"2019-06-27","ear":-0.1146775165762507,"entry":55.97,"adr":2.211075,"response_stock":-0.12658227848101267,"response_spy":-0.011904761904761973},{"date":"2019-09-04","t":923,"e":925,"entry_date":"2019-09-06","ear":0.055640132738093095,"entry":55.68,"adr":1.8787199999999995,"response_stock":0.07374345041723251,"response_spy":0.01810331767913942},{"date":"2019-12-03","t":986,"e":988,"entry_date":"2019-12-05","ear":0.008036226370557342,"entry":61.38,"adr":2.0637999999999983,"response_stock":-0.0009781545484186527,"response_spy":-0.009014380918975995}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 2018 issuer event dates and frozen EAR inputs = 4
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Collected Sep10 2026; current issuer archive, not contemporaneously archived original webpage. Date correction before test. Numbers are decimal returns and adjusted-dollar prices; each signal uses only completed t+1 close and t+2 open. Dates [{"date":"2018-03-06","visible":"March 6, 2018 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2018-04-13T09:02:47-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2018-third-quarter-results-0"},{"date":"2018-06-26","visible":"June 26, 2018 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2018-06-26T16:12:17-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2018-full-year-and-fourth"},{"date":"2018-09-05","visible":"September 5, 2018 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2018-09-05T16:13:38-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2019-first-quarter-results"},{"date":"2018-11-29","visible":"November 29, 2018 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2018-11-29T16:12:15-0500","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2019-second-quarter-results"}]; signals [{"date":"2018-03-06","t":546,"e":548,"entry_date":"2018-03-08","ear":-0.15340613423267901,"entry":43.75,"adr":1.9102150000000013,"response_stock":-0.1394557823129251,"response_spy":0.013950351919753912},{"date":"2018-06-26","t":624,"e":626,"entry_date":"2018-06-28","ear":0.13938689275535376,"entry":63.92,"adr":2.3216799999999993,"response_stock":0.12133961629081114,"response_spy":-0.018047276464542628},{"date":"2018-09-05","t":673,"e":675,"entry_date":"2018-09-07","ear":0.14377725340949987,"entry":100.33,"adr":2.4363149999999996,"response_stock":0.13653933606184632,"response_spy":-0.007237917347653555},{"date":"2018-11-29","t":733,"e":735,"entry_date":"2018-12-03","ear":-0.16360280068199917,"entry":78.42,"adr":4.435185,"response_stock":-0.1360252650575231,"response_spy":0.02757753562447607}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 2017 issuer event dates and frozen EAR inputs = 4
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Collected Sep10 2026; current issuer archive, not contemporaneously archived original webpage. Date correction before test. Numbers are decimal returns and adjusted-dollar prices; each signal uses only completed t+1 close and t+2 open. Dates [{"date":"2017-03-07","visible":"March 7, 2017 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2017-04-03T01:47:56-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2017-third-quarter-results"},{"date":"2017-06-27","visible":"June 27, 2017 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2018-04-13T09:02:38-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2017-fourth-quarter-and-full"},{"date":"2017-08-29","visible":"August 29, 2017 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2018-04-13T09:02:43-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2018-first-quarter-results"},{"date":"2017-12-05","visible":"December 5, 2017 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2018-04-13T09:02:43-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2018-second-quarter-results-0"}]; signals [{"date":"2017-03-07","t":295,"e":297,"entry_date":"2017-03-09","ear":0.030360782933773423,"entry":27.48,"adr":0.6745199999999999,"response_stock":0.022651318232454587,"response_spy":-0.0077094647013188355},{"date":"2017-06-27","t":373,"e":375,"entry_date":"2017-06-29","ear":0.13972739907488085,"entry":35.07,"adr":0.9672199999999996,"response_stock":0.14104647383815405,"response_spy":0.001319074763273198},{"date":"2017-08-29","t":417,"e":419,"entry_date":"2017-08-31","ear":0.19195261646773498,"entry":47.03,"adr":1.1152450000000003,"response_stock":0.19804275045068254,"response_spy":0.006090133982947554},{"date":"2017-12-05","t":485,"e":487,"entry_date":"2017-12-07","ear":0.222635125991963,"entry":54.47,"adr":1.9273,"response_stock":0.21802325581395343,"response_spy":-0.0046118701780095694}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 2016 issuer event dates and frozen EAR inputs = 4
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Collected Sep10 2026; current issuer archive, not contemporaneously archived original webpage. Date correction before test. Numbers are decimal returns and adjusted-dollar prices; each signal uses only completed t+1 close and t+2 open. Dates [{"date":"2016-03-08","visible":"March 8, 2016 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2017-04-03T01:47:43-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2016-third-quarter-results"},{"date":"2016-06-28","visible":"June 28, 2016 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2017-04-03T01:47:47-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2016-fourth-quarter-and-full"},{"date":"2016-08-30","visible":"August 30, 2016 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2017-04-03T01:47:51-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2017-first-quarter-results"},{"date":"2016-12-06","visible":"December 6, 2016 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2017-04-03T01:47:56-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2017-second-quarter-results"}]; signals [{"date":"2016-03-08","t":44,"e":46,"entry_date":"2016-03-10","ear":0.07786807976858356,"entry":28.21,"adr":0.7592850000000002,"response_stock":0.07265119817421084,"response_spy":-0.005216881594372724},{"date":"2016-06-28","t":122,"e":124,"entry_date":"2016-06-30","ear":-0.11210396987770377,"entry":26.89,"adr":0.8874699999999998,"response_stock":-0.09525423728813553,"response_spy":0.016849732589568234},{"date":"2016-08-30","t":166,"e":168,"entry_date":"2016-09-01","ear":-0.16178624794756724,"entry":25.23,"adr":0.6409900000000001,"response_stock":-0.16135593220338984,"response_spy":0.0004303157441774008},{"date":"2016-12-06","t":234,"e":236,"entry_date":"2016-12-08","ear":-0.03602310979991685,"entry":27.49,"adr":1.029595,"response_stock":-0.013571428571428568,"response_spy":0.022451681228488285}] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 2015 issuer event dates and frozen EAR inputs = 2
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:13
Collected Sep10 2026; current issuer archive, not contemporaneously archived original webpage. Date correction before test. Numbers are decimal returns and adjusted-dollar prices; each signal uses only completed t+1 close and t+2 open. Dates [{"date":"2015-09-01","visible":"September 1, 2015 at 4:10 PM EDT","metadata":"2017-04-03T01:47:40-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2016-first-quarter-results"},{"date":"2015-12-08","visible":"December 8, 2015 at 4:10 PM EST","metadata":"2017-04-03T01:47:43-0400","url":"https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-inc-announces-fiscal-2016-second-quarter-results"}]; signals [] https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
INBX QTR9100000 efficacy and safety denominators rechecked = 0.36622390891840606
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:11
Sep8 HexAgonPDF read Sep10 unchangedSHA: randomized33combination/35control; safetypopulation31/34. Grade>=3relatedAE15/31=48.4% vs4/34=11.8%, difference36.6224percentagepoints; any>=G3 18/31 vs16/34; discontinuations11/31 vs5/34. InterimPFS9.6vs4.9months cannot erase safety or differentialfollowup8.02vs6.31months. Smallstudy, noassertion these differences statisticallyconclusive. PublishedKN048comparison isnothead-to-head; separatefromactualrandomizedcontrol. Interestedissuerclosestsource. https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/
IRD QTR9100000 prespecification and runway bear-case countercheck = 2029
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:11
Sep9 BEST1PDF unchanged SHA, read Sep10: patient microperimetry pages explicitly loci notprespecified; proposedpivotal endpoint >=3dB in>=5prespecifiedloci with patient-reportedanchor andrandomizedcontrol. Aug2026TypeCdialogue notapproval. Page30 states cashrunwayinto2029/fiveclinicalprograms, managementprojection andnotindependentlymodeled; prevents falsely claiming immediatefinancingcrisis. Approval, commercial economics andtiming remainuncalibrated. https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations
TYRA QTR9100000 observed response versus modeled outcomes rechecked = 0.5714285714285714
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:11
Sep9 deck, data cutoffAug31, retrievedSep10 unchanged SHA; page13 primary3month60mgCR8/14=57%, bestoverallCR9/14=64%, ORR11/14=79%. Five3monthCRpatients with6monthassessment remaininresponse; evaluable subset notdurability estimate forall14. Page20 displays modeled24monthDFS55/72/81%, impliedHR.6/.3/.2; hypotheses not observed randomizedoutcomes. Closest interested sponsor. Bearcase uncontrolled small denominators and selectedfollowup; counterargument actual activity exists, so zeroallocation is edge/valuationdiscipline not claim ineffective. https://ir.tyra.bio/static-files/e2ddb459-375e-49f8-a9ae-a5303c6d8e3a
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