Runway

Notes

10327 observations, newest first
AVAV QEAR91000 extension fixed5 EAR>0 cost0bp = 9.285123529411754
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"extension","mode":"fixed5","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":9.285123529411754,"drawdown":0,"win rate":100,"sample":1,"average win pct":9.285123529411754,"average loss pct":0,"mean pct":9.285123529411754,"quarter Kelly":0,"CI iid pct":[9.285123529411754,9.285123529411754],"CI year pct":[9.285123529411754,9.285123529411754],"year_clusters":1,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2026":9.285123529411754}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 extension time5 EAR>0 cost16bp = -7.484758459633179
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"extension","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":-7.484758459633179,"drawdown":17.47730333333335,"win rate":0,"sample":1,"average win pct":0,"average loss pct":7.484758459633179,"mean pct":-7.484758459633179,"quarter Kelly":0,"CI iid pct":[-7.484758459633179,-7.484758459633179],"CI year pct":[-7.484758459633179,-7.484758459633179],"year_clusters":1,"reconcile_error":1.1368683772161603e-13,"year_returns":{"2026":-7.484758459633179}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 extension time5 EAR>0 cost6bp = -7.299542621802734
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"extension","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":-7.299542621802734,"drawdown":17.394656666666652,"win rate":0,"sample":1,"average win pct":0,"average loss pct":7.299542621802734,"mean pct":-7.299542621802734,"quarter Kelly":0,"CI iid pct":[-7.299542621802734,-7.299542621802734],"CI year pct":[-7.299542621802734,-7.299542621802734],"year_clusters":1,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2026":-7.299542621802734}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 extension time5 EAR>0 cost0bp = -7.188235294117651
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"extension","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":-7.188235294117651,"drawdown":17.345067840117355,"win rate":0,"sample":1,"average win pct":0,"average loss pct":7.188235294117651,"mean pct":-7.188235294117651,"quarter Kelly":0,"CI iid pct":[-7.188235294117651,-7.188235294117651],"CI year pct":[-7.188235294117651,-7.188235294117651],"year_clusters":1,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2026":-7.188235294117651}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 extension parent20 EAR>0 cost16bp = -16.667092611757283
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"extension","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":-16.667092611757283,"drawdown":26.020221069726034,"win rate":0,"sample":1,"average win pct":0,"average loss pct":16.667092611757283,"mean pct":-16.667092611757283,"quarter Kelly":0,"CI iid pct":[-16.667092611757283,-16.667092611757283],"CI year pct":[-16.667092611757283,-16.667092611757283],"year_clusters":1,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2026":-16.667092611757283}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 extension parent20 EAR>0 cost6bp = -16.500259839083565
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"extension","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":-16.500259839083565,"drawdown":26.020221069726013,"win rate":0,"sample":1,"average win pct":0,"average loss pct":16.500259839083565,"mean pct":-16.500259839083565,"quarter Kelly":0,"CI iid pct":[-16.500259839083565,-16.500259839083565],"CI year pct":[-16.500259839083565,-16.500259839083565],"year_clusters":1,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2026":-16.500259839083565}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 extension parent20 EAR>0 cost0bp = -16.400000000000002
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"extension","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":-16.400000000000002,"drawdown":26.020221069726023,"win rate":0,"sample":1,"average win pct":0,"average loss pct":16.400000000000002,"mean pct":-16.400000000000002,"quarter Kelly":0,"CI iid pct":[-16.400000000000002,-16.400000000000002],"CI year pct":[-16.400000000000002,-16.400000000000002],"year_clusters":1,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2026":-16.400000000000002}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout green5 EAR>0 cost16bp = 16.571303089916544
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"green5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":16.571303089916544,"drawdown":8.325020049755027,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":4.5509550244146375,"average loss pct":3.6952223739061187,"mean pct":1.8022292249743856,"quarter Kelly":0.09900280354925038,"CI iid pct":[-1.0048303845084041,4.401008039707885],"CI year pct":[-0.3378691892810986,5.165241018804433],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":9.094947017729282e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":7.434627399904614,"2022":-0.599489500157635,"2023":-2.9178736355073953,"2024":2.6539977650782864,"2025":9.532653080044717}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout green5 EAR>0 cost6bp = 18.688587230096985
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"green5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":18.688587230096985,"drawdown":7.865588935978895,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":4.760266402825427,"average loss pct":3.5024198715496815,"mean pct":2.006037644700391,"quarter Kelly":0.10535322369299117,"CI iid pct":[-0.8066417079593338,4.61001922372971],"CI year pct":[-0.1383452540814794,5.375782199929043],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2021":7.6497119005183745,"2022":-0.20109076027839956,"2023":-2.333629264008241,"2024":2.8595114284070133,"2025":9.97166159965166}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout green5 EAR>0 cost0bp = 19.977370967624953
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"green5","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":19.977370967624953,"drawdown":7.588782677075234,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":4.886054188891057,"average loss pct":3.3865532612226987,"mean pct":2.128518372186472,"quarter Kelly":0.10890783697333295,"CI iid pct":[-0.6875382218724302,4.735626604946546],"CI year pct":[-0.018439330827742368,5.502309048351666],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":7.7789691026574515,"2022":0.038714289636709864,"2023":-1.9813966664379734,"2024":2.9830169392523365,"2025":10.235910577922635}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout fixed5 EAR>0 cost16bp = 23.210498671762593
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"fixed5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":23.210498671762593,"drawdown":8.325020049754938,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":5.525043783306504,"average loss pct":3.6952223739061076,"mean pct":2.4516217309023003,"quarter Kelly":0.11093223090420057,"CI iid pct":[-0.6892356371479664,5.3879524034640776],"CI year pct":[0.02671657456561666,6.262186976574233],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":6.821210263296962e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":8.985450633894443,"2022":0.31458369108650075,"2023":-2.2165790647543093,"2024":3.2486950721028585,"2025":11.62598843221241}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout fixed5 EAR>0 cost6bp = 25.44837049635913
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"fixed5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":25.44837049635913,"drawdown":7.865588935978895,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":5.736305290826763,"average loss pct":3.5024198715496815,"mean pct":2.6567302367012817,"quarter Kelly":0.11578577594840544,"CI iid pct":[-0.49041513880854326,5.598939453561388],"CI year pct":[0.22697041174230295,6.474924247351106],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":6.821210263296962e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":9.203639888058301,"2022":0.7166460500528826,"2023":-1.6281142726580322,"2024":3.455399321524677,"2025":12.073387071369579}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout fixed5 EAR>0 cost0bp = 26.810555551959013
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"fixed5","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":26.810555551959013,"drawdown":7.588782677075234,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":5.863265026669277,"average loss pct":3.3865532612227023,"mean pct":2.779992264038617,"quarter Kelly":0.1185343085888886,"CI iid pct":[-0.3709319530378338,5.725734251444655],"CI year pct":[0.34731497695828356,6.602770858021999],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":9.334762923188912,"2022":0.9586563136651183,"2023":-1.2733372437123136,"2024":3.579620327102817,"2025":12.34268624894128}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout time5 EAR>0 cost16bp = 8.317338716744471
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":8.317338716744471,"drawdown":22.954793595741087,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":4.752780485641872,"average loss pct":6.199842338136533,"mean pct":1.1019062110490703,"quarter Kelly":0.057961135296376684,"CI iid pct":[-3.0695699632311384,5.5982431534956465],"CI year pct":[-3.175065975022061,6.562455649821379],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":10.457763445207235,"2022":-7.164885018382883,"2023":-3.2392184838699767,"2024":-5.6703292969329855,"2025":15.728885396450476}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout time5 EAR>0 cost6bp = 10.284706133016886
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":10.284706133016886,"drawdown":22.180475555297928,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":4.962495919333431,"average loss pct":6.012054093727196,"mean pct":1.3043125816465557,"quarter Kelly":0.06570849643246418,"CI iid pct":[-2.8755149025556137,5.809651206411612],"CI year pct":[-2.9812221177319054,6.775794059534555],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":10.678900274779846,"2022":-6.792800482405825,"2023":-2.6569079793554384,"2024":-5.4814809655592045,"2025":16.19272850829889}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout time5 EAR>0 cost0bp = 11.482236064742569
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"time5","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":11.482236064742569,"drawdown":21.71215481859875,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":9,"average win pct":5.088526526499385,"average loss pct":5.899200852337527,"mean pct":1.425950733553748,"quarter Kelly":0.07005715338850359,"CI iid pct":[-2.7588955546609317,5.936699010189155],"CI year pct":[-2.864729694643977,6.904001930718295],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2021":10.811794685111042,"2022":-6.568834536254309,"2023":-2.305841282604315,"2024":-5.367990654205612,"2025":16.47192597921292}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout parent20 EAR>0 cost16bp = 63.74177750859054
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":63.74177750859054,"drawdown":40.21536270475982,"win rate":55.55555555555556,"sample":9,"average win pct":24.519816647424285,"average loss pct":11.973878165424212,"mean pct":8.300396730602731,"quarter Kelly":0.08462947388591767,"CI iid pct":[-6.706307561498007,26.925600675428274],"CI year pct":[-5.0277840760736074,27.00375343001258],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":4.334324686541402,"2022":-3.1700894469154584,"2023":-0.7383161613552236,"2024":-14.468066006539438,"2025":90.90303383688803}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout parent20 EAR>0 cost6bp = 66.715818798465
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":66.715818798465,"drawdown":39.61451645669912,"win rate":55.55555555555556,"sample":9,"average win pct":24.769105756795334,"average loss pct":11.797649560979155,"mean pct":8.517214504451118,"quarter Kelly":0.08596610822450104,"CI iid pct":[-6.519533262241017,27.179706172855685],"CI year pct":[-4.837649366915557,27.258015389528595],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":4.5432023702564495,"2022":-2.781993710254005,"2023":-0.140955120142372,"2024":-14.296830774894431,"2025":91.6681760654065}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 holdout parent20 EAR>0 cost0bp = 68.52610773247669
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"holdout","mode":"parent20","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":68.52610773247669,"drawdown":39.251114414078906,"win rate":55.55555555555556,"sample":9,"average win pct":24.918918563897112,"average loss pct":11.691743201932239,"mean pct":8.647513334639624,"quarter Kelly":0.08675650703365861,"CI iid pct":[-6.407289361427431,27.332413436986226],"CI year pct":[-4.7233859938451985,27.410816681130918],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2021":4.668729523116144,"2022":-2.5483902668039016,"2023":0.21918533049440914,"2024":-14.193925233644855,"2025":92.12873216645671}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train green5 EAR>0 cost16bp = 16.023536639847148
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"green5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":16.023536639847148,"drawdown":5.154720718010464,"win rate":75,"sample":12,"average win pct":2.4696548699060066,"average loss pct":2.284828393158618,"mean pct":1.2810340541398504,"quarter Kelly":0.12967743689107109,"CI iid pct":[-0.2600092756859782,2.7270021967735976],"CI year pct":[-0.11235582323079307,2.345756537815617],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":6.821210263296962e-13,"year_returns":{"2016":-3.0024351354907886,"2017":7.331114589032484,"2018":5.134463467194528,"2019":0.5677923699083376,"2020":5.403640076937677}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train green5 EAR>0 cost6bp = 18.84178831751411
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"green5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":18.84178831751411,"drawdown":5.012089562932531,"win rate":83.33333333333334,"sample":12,"average win pct":2.4244038945489965,"average loss pct":3.219225236902723,"mean pct":1.4837990393070433,"quarter Kelly":0.15300658469523182,"CI iid pct":[-0.06032946466647085,2.9326620152304788],"CI year pct":[0.08761959051806212,2.550653101126989],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"year_returns":{"2016":-2.8082456706548298,"2017":8.193208216356407,"2018":5.555843976736963,"2019":1.1730136278936598,"2020":5.8260994503771535}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train green5 EAR>0 cost0bp = 20.565491064239126
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"green5","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":20.565491064239126,"drawdown":4.926397240164826,"win rate":83.33333333333334,"sample":12,"average win pct":2.547386962914311,"average loss pct":3.103018589008605,"mean pct":1.6056527042604918,"quarter Kelly":0.15757840560112252,"CI iid pct":[0.059670133734981146,3.056255359475623],"CI year pct":[0.20779683436412563,2.673787759486614],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2016":-2.6915455512229625,"2017":8.713784034693983,"2018":5.809482264234411,"2019":1.5378928910998013,"2020":6.080387130015641}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train fixed5 EAR>0 cost16bp = 15.570488903462355
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"fixed5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0015,"return":15.570488903462355,"drawdown":11.02902270813695,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":12,"average win pct":3.4499783495618415,"average loss pct":3.0630593865163895,"mean pct":1.2789657708690978,"quarter Kelly":0.09267926065619587,"CI iid pct":[-0.7721111523318471,3.2711077314701],"CI year pct":[-0.28981656999463745,2.6366132576801924],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":1.3642420526593924e-12,"year_returns":{"2016":-3.0024351354907886,"2017":7.602854784882851,"2018":8.591932475684171,"2019":1.3817848411861622,"2020":0.5784250834939497}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train fixed5 EAR>0 cost6bp = 18.377735895527557
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"fixed5","threshold":0,"fee":0.0001,"slip":0.0005,"return":18.377735895527557,"drawdown":10.8509024997547,"win rate":75,"sample":12,"average win pct":3.269725354773634,"average loss pct":3.8822696030171633,"mean pct":1.4817266153259345,"quarter Kelly":0.11329136659465057,"CI iid pct":[-0.5734565710643015,3.477856851114537],"CI year pct":[-0.09019643328281375,2.8420921171642006],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":6.821210263296962e-13,"year_returns":{"2016":-2.8082456706548298,"2017":8.467131055068755,"2018":9.027170572971709,"2019":1.9919047405341894,"2020":0.9815449227261297}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AVAV QEAR91000 train fixed5 EAR>0 cost0bp = 20.094707942170366
Quant replication2026-09-10 00:15
Frozen note1683, date correction1684, fill correction1688. Completed trades only; fees/slippage each side. Returns and CIs percent; fractional simulation, no fixed business costs or guaranteed15minute fills. {"part":"train","mode":"fixed5","threshold":0,"fee":0,"slip":0,"return":20.094707942170366,"drawdown":10.74385936222405,"win rate":75,"sample":12,"average win pct":3.3937234178372826,"average loss pct":3.766859086001103,"mean pct":1.6035777918776861,"quarter Kelly":0.11812820274696972,"CI iid pct":[-0.45407309483301633,3.6021048219059404],"CI year pct":[0.029767303240958568,2.9655767122876298],"year_clusters":5,"reconcile_error":0,"year_returns":{"2016":-2.6915455512229625,"2017":8.989024863770734,"2018":9.289150050308015,"2019":2.3597373247407516,"2020":1.224191707196809}} https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
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