Stats

Primary venue bars retrieved Sep5, completed Sep4, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; indicative snapshots /data/crypto-snapshots. BTC79676.7475 vs81269.4915 prior20close max; ETH2456.376 vs2515.933; SOL101.95 vs109.15; UNI6.18484 vs6.32576. All false; Sep3 BTC/UNI alerts expired when Sep4 close failed. Daily returns BTC-1.960%,ETH-2.067%,SOL-1.941%,UNI-2.228%. Core remains above20-day SMA but that alone is not registered entry. ATR14 simple mean true range BTC2702.40/ETH106.53/SOL7.122; ADR20 BTC2921.85/ETH118.75/SOL6.530. Illustrative1ATR stop/1.5ATR target percent3.392/5.088,4.337/6.505,6.986/10.479 respectively, not order levels or validated exit rule. 1.5ATR is inside2ADR here, but no tested conditional win rate. Thirty-three observed USD candidates ranked by7-day sum(v*vw): USDC,BTC,ETH,SOL,XRP,PAXG,LINK,UNI,USDT,AAVE top10 of that partial sample. Full tradable census unavailable; do not mislabel global/top10Alpaca coverage. Sole true signal USDT, whose anomalous stale-looking prior prices are not a validated stablecoin strategy. All other32 false. User book has no holding to reset. Strong bear case: latest daily close failed breakout and no delayed-entry rule validated. Counterargument:20-day returns remain strong; trend positivity alone cannot override entry definition or costs. Proposed size0.

All values use completed Sep4 all-adjusted IEX bars, not consolidated executable quotes. IONS58.10 below SMA20/50 59.47/61.23, RSI44.88; MIRM100.89 above SMA20 98.98 but below SMA50 109.04, RSI48.47; RARE15.26 after +2.86% day remains41.09% down over20sessions, RSI21.12. Oversold alone does not validate a rebound. Friday ADBE fell6.73% to266.51; no causal headline attribution made. CHWY23.67 above SMA20/50 23.35/22.25 with RSI54.27, ADR20 $.88125; two ADR gives hypothetical25.4325, near20-day high25.37. A stop under20-day low21.965 would give only about1.03 reward/risk to that target; tightening to oneADR only creates geometry, not demonstrated invalidation. Do not stretch target to satisfy1.5. KR58.58 above both averages; GME19.17 remains below SMA50 20.26. Combined trend/momentum/range is descriptive; failed event holdout overrides visual optimism. Current cap49.14 permits2CHWY,2GME,3RARE whole shares at reference closes and0IONS/MIRM/KR/ADBE, before costs. Affordable does not mean eligible. Three old trades had original RR1.40IONS,1.08MIRM,1.72RARE, with RARE realizing-6.44R from gap. No holdings exist and no real exits need adjustment. Strong countercase a rally could occur; no validated return distribution or attainable thesis-specific stop supplies an order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; full diagnostics observations164-171 (hash field corrected separately), ledger observation172.

Sep4 completed IEX daily bars: FRO46.15 above prior20 closes45.43 and SMA20/50/20042.850/39.820/33.599; STNG82.345 above81.46 and78.463/77.164/71.137. Both trend+breakout indicators align, but they are correlated transformations of price, not independent corroboration of fundamentals. Day moves+1.607%/+2.867%,20-session moves+16.188%/+8.185%. ADR20=1.23575/1.67, ATR14=1.55321/1.91107. Diagnostic2-ADR targets at these closing reference entries would be48.6215/85.685;1-ADR stops44.91425/80.675, not orders or support-level claims. Actual next-session opening entry, tick rounding, dividend and15-minute execution need revalidation. FRO planned dividend2.61 exceeds two recent daily ranges, making mechanical raw-price exits particularly unsafe across ex-date; NYSE expectedSep18 per issuer attachment, monitor11 set for prior close review. Flat book means no current stop/target reset. Maximum single position212.77, fund278.67, nominal equity loss budget8.5108; price gap can exceed nominal stops. No validated entry permitted despite signals. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; dividend https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/59431810-8e9c-4a39-b3d0-cc2dd63da402 . IEX partial-market prices, not consolidated official closes; recent SIP request denied403. Research watch12 stores same split-adjusted close/range definitions, no automatic adoption.

Primary SIP daily source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars retrieved September5. August31 completed-close/SMA10:SPY767.05/710.75,EFA107.45/100.591,IEF92.41/93.579,VNQ96.44/92.855,DBC31.3/27.114. Four long states,IEFcash; these are prior month decisions, not fresh intraday buy triggers. September4 raw closes770.19,108.35,92.25,96.02,31.90; changes-0.3854,+0.1294,-0.0325,-0.6621,-0.1877% respectively do not alter monthly signals.14-day simple ATR percentages.7145,.8086,.3546,.9967,1.2338. TwoATR swing moves only1.429,1.617,.709,1.993,2.468%; the test's average winning trade9.603% and median182.5day hold are incompatible with assuming these small targets preserve the same edge. At245.69fund,each20%sleeve49.138; only DBC permits one whole share, others require fractional execution. SPY770.19 also exceeds212.77global position cap for a whole share. Four active sleeves would require staging under3new-position/run rule, another departure from tested simultaneous implementation. No filled holdings exist, so no stop,target,R-progress or days-held reset applies. Conclusion no catch-up orders or invented exit levels. A separate rule incorporating actual stops,targets,+1R management,timeouts and15minute enforcement must be registered and tested independently before sizing. Policy size0.

Alpaca daily bars through Sep 3: ADBE 285.75, +9.80%/20d, above SMA20 274.05 and SMA50 247.39, ATR14 3.44%; already extended into Sep 10 earnings. KR 58.51, +2.08%/20d, only modestly above SMA20 57.26 and SMA50 57.68, ATR14 2.28%; five prior 10-session earnings run-ups compounded -9.1%. GME 19.23, flat/20d, below SMA50 20.30, ATR14 2.25%; preliminary results already released. IONS 58.13 below SMA20 59.41/SMA50 61.64 after early approval. MIRM 100.63 above SMA20 98.99 but below SMA50 109.39. None offers a fresh, non-binary entry now.