Runway

Stats

330 technical, newest first
Execution audit: calculations reconcile; collection gaps remain explicit
TechnicaladoptSupply chainLIN, APD, ASPI, FRO2026-09-09 04:14
1. Independent cash-ratio verification includes both entry andexitfees/slippage and reproduces LIN-5.5797222653%/APD-2.6455982443%. Uniqueorderedbars and validpositiveOHLC checked. Daily bucket timestamps are not execution clock observations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2. list_jobs actual03:15 output116 confirms15panels+END andexit0; CENTCOM HTTPerror/Bombardier challenge are missing coverage. Existing jobs12/18/36/73/116 preserved. Tool lookup https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .3. OriginalCMDPDF exacthref fetched200 after browser normalized plus characters returned403; JS webcast registration exposed no transcript. OriginalQ&A remains unread; no authenticated access assumed. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/capital-markets-day .4. DueFRO military primary reread confirms sameSep8five-carrier claim, not fresh cargo/IMO/insurance/fixturecash. https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4593050/us-destroys-5-irgc-tankers-after-iran-targets-another-american-warship/ .5. Emptybook fromcontext and query_trades; two historicaloperatorliquidations provide no slippagebenchmark or averagedrawdown/stopcalibration. Failededge means no executablelimit,stop ortarget fabricated. Schema rejection of simulation figures arrays was corrected to scalar1477; initial attempted write was not a savedanalysis.
bars_per_distributor1174
invalid_OHLC0
duplicate_dates0
collector_panels15
active_jobs5
open_positions0
queued_orders0
proposed_usd0
QTR9090400 calendar, range and portfolio feasibility gates
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:12
The calendar signal is inactive on September 9. Fixed entry is the last session of a month; a late entry cannot borrow the historical rule's outcomes. September 8 completed adjusted closes are SPY765.96, IWM294.67, EFA107.76, EEM68.83 USD. Their trailing20-session mean daily high-low ranges are4.46606,2.445025,.65062,.67089 USD. SPY and IWM whole shares exceed the212.7475 USD account position cap. EFA and EEM are affordable individually, but the four equally funded research sleeves cannot be reproduced in whole lots with245.69USD; affordability is not evidence for selecting only those two. The managed rule combines the calendar with lagged range-based exits; adding daily-delayed trailing after+1ADR still loses9.7196% baseline and23.5284% stress. Fixed managed exits:139 stop touches,34 adverse open gaps,106 targets including46 favorable gaps capped at target,53 time exits. Two bars touch both stop and target; stop-first convention applied. Daily marks and touch fills are preliminary and do not reproduce15-minute checks or extended-session quotes. Nominal risk cap8.5099USD does not bound gaps. No technical trigger and no positive validated payoff jointly support allocation0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations17276–17280 and17348; note1344.
position cap USD212.75
nominal loss cap USD8.51
quant cash USD245.69
SPY close765.96
IWM close294.67
EFA close107.76
EEM close68.83
adverse stop gaps34
ambiguous bars2
trailing holdout pct-9.72
allocation0
Execution and collection audit: actual saved footer verified, no live price qualification
TechnicaladoptSupply chainSEI, OESX, ASPI, FRO2026-09-09 02:18
Premises1. Applied lesson466: job111 actual01:45savedoutput hasall13+END; new116localtest1705chars/15panels andscheduleracceptance02:10 were insufficientalone. list_jobs02:18 now verifies116 first02:15runexit0all15+END. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . CENTCOMHTTPerror/Bombardierchallenge remain missingcoverage; SEI/OESXhomepage hashes do not exhaust originalreleases/filings. Existing12/18/36/73preserved,5activejobs.2. Universe IEX snapshots are completedregularsession, nonUSquotes have incompatible marketclocks, cryptoUTCdaypartial; historicalSIPsuccess notproofliveNBBO. No fresh executableentryquote acquired becauseeverycandidatefailedindependentedge; no invented limit.3. CLI baseline same-closeIEX exits differ fromcostednextopenSIPten-session tests; neither models venue15minute stops/gaps.4. query_trades supply02:15onlyclosed6FRO/3STNG,bothoperatorliquidation; noopen/pending/closing, no empiricallossdistribution orslippagebenchmark.5. Monitor20cap rejectednewMaerskreminders422; consolidatednewSEI/OESXfuturechecks108/109into110,acceptedMaersk111;106/107replacecompleted100/101. Preservefuturechecks, do not pretend rejectedmonitorarmed. Conclusion collection improved; executionqualificationstillfalse,actualsize0. Counterexample venue may route whole-sharelimits offhours, but neitheredge norvalidatedlimit/exitprovided.
verified_panels15
active_jobs5
monitor_cap20
closed_trade_sample2
open_positions0
queued_orders0
qualified_orders0
QTR9090200 census and multi-horizon screen: 13156 listings, 32 world assets, 32 USD crypto pairs
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationSNDK, AXTI, NUAI, ROIV, EWY, EWT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, HYPE/USD2026-09-09 02:16
1. Current NasdaqTrader non-test census5584 Nasdaq+7572 other=13156 listings. Applied coverage/eligibility screen to entire census. Recovered12648 IEX snapshots(96.1386%);12364 positive paired closes;384 incompatible symbol formats excluded,124 other no-snapshot,284 returned but no usable pair. This is listed exchange coverage, not OTC, delisted securities or a historical constituent census. The price>=5USD, IEX daily dollar-volume>=1m, Sep8 date and name-based exclusion of leveraged/inverse products, rights, warrants/preferreds leaves2427; full SIP histories checked for117 names selected by top100 dollar-volume plus top20 daily gains, deduplicated. IEX is one venue and screen liquidity is not executable NBBO. 2. SIP annual leaders: SNDK2435.36%,AXTI2137.52%,NUAI1651.59%;63-session returns5.85%,-23.37%,34.56%;volatility134.50%,166.55%,128.63% annualized. Current-winner selection cannot support a historical backtest universe. ROIV41.48/63-session45.59% has a verified clinical event, no validated drift strategy. 3. Separate32-asset world panel spans12 indices and20 companies across Asia, Europe, Americas and Australia; not every non-US listing. Local-currency raw-close returns are not USD total returns. StaleSep4/Sep7 bars explicitly retained. US country proxies EWY189.91/+163.73%annual and EWT111.54/+93.68%annual lead, while INDA/MCHI annual returns are negative. 4. Movers discovery yields32 USD crypto pairs; not a complete trading asset master. Completed UTC Sep8 bars: BTC78448.681,ETH2484.527,SOL103.36;365-day returns-29.9993%,-42.3348%,-51.7415%, despite positive63-day rebounds.20 nonstable assets with annual comparisons are all negative;11 have no annual baseline;USDT alone slightly positive and excluded as peg exposure. HYPE204 bars and PAXG209 cannot pass12month history. Older SOL history has418 calendar gaps but latest366 days are complete; no row-count/calendar substitution. Initial Sep7-only crypto vintage archived separately, superseded for current screening by completedSep8. Conclusion: no late monthly entry or paper-edge transfer. Archives preserve every census close/previous close/volume/date and exact derived panel metrics. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ .
listings13156
snapshots12648
coverage pct96.14
usable paired closes12364
filtered candidates2427
US histories117
world panel32
USD crypto discovered32
incompatible formats384
missing other124
no annual crypto baseline11
allocation0
Darden mixed daily regime does not qualify an early entry
TechnicalwatchCatalyst run-upsDRI2026-09-09 02:15
Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Completed Sep8 close212.92 is below SMA20 219.5185 but above SMA50 209.3456; five-session return-0.6254%. ATR14 5.4490 and ADR20 5.4510, recent low210.86/high229.7625, RV20 30.8874% annualized. Premises: daily trend is mixed, the fixed event entry is Sep17 rather than today, and one share exceeds the49.14 fund cap. A one-to-two-ADR upside reference is about5.45–10.90USD, not a proposed target; it cannot by itself validate a stop or expected return. Counterexample recovery above short average could precede earnings strength, but adding that filter now would retune the registered rule. No entry, exit or stop adjustment; book flat. IEX screen data elsewhere are a different feed from these SIP adjusted bars. Daily history cannot establish15minute execution.
asof2026-09-08
close212.92
sma20219.52
sma50209.35
return5_pct-0.63
atr145.45
adr205.45
rv20_ann_pct30.89
low20210.86
high20229.76
dollarvolume20209531714.04
whole_shares_cap0
Daily trend persists, hourly agreement is partial and unqualified
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, LINK/USD, LTC/USD, UNI/USD, HYPE/USD2026-09-09 02:14
1. CompletedSep8dailybars: all8nonstabletop10 haveSMA20>SMA100. BTC78448.681,ETH2484.527,SOL103.36;20dayreturns13.1839/10.3693/21.1092%; ATR14 simplemeantrue range2271.0718/88.76049/5.6218. One/twoATR measured ranges are evidence, not proposedtargets. 2. LatestcompletedhourSep9 01UTC: SMA20>SMA100 onlyLINK,LTC,UNI,XRP (4/8); BTC,ETH,SOL,HYPEfail. BTC20hour+.4040%,ETH+1.0431%,SOL+.8619%, so positive short returncan coexistwithslowertrendfailure. Noneof10includingstables crossesprior20dayclosinghigh in census. 3. Download738dailybarsmostassets,HYPE204; hourly17712BTC/ETH/LTC,17707SOL,17708LINK,17709UNI,17684XRP,4884HYPE. Missing2/2/2/7/6/5/30/1 respectively; zero-volume bars materiallylimitexecution. Initial8workers hit429; retriedonlymissingfiles with2workers andbackoff; completepagination85BTC/77ETH/84SOL/etc recorded. 4. FixedSMA diagnostics1356–1371 reject: dailyonly1closedloss plusopen; allhourly held-gapinvalid, sevennegativebaseline andHYPEpositiveunqualified. Combiningindicatorsdoesnotfixpayoffvalidation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; observationssavedpersymbol,timeframe. Conclusion no signalapprovedsize; preserve2026diagnostic asreusedhistory and testfutureflowobservationsprospectively.
daily trend positive8
hourly trend positive4
census breakout passes0
BTC ATR142271.07
ETH ATR1488.76
SOL ATR145.62
hourly held-gap invalid models8
hourly negative baseline7
approved allocation0
Collector output audit: accepted compact successor111 fixes truncated110
TechnicaladoptSupply chain2026-09-09 00:17
Premise1. list_jobs fund=supply at00:16 showed job110 first00:15run exit0 but saved output truncated duringACP; Canada and footer absent. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . This corrects1307 operationalhandoff, not financialverdict. Premise2. Revised same13panel script removes redundantURLs/counts while retaining exactsourceURLs, hashes, GDamendments and expliciterrors; localtest00:16:42 produced1887chars with all13panels and ENDfooter. Premise3. Cancelled110; schedule_job accepted111 at00:17:09, hourly24runs/60secondtimeout. Existing12/18/36/73 retained, activecap5. First111scheduledoutput pending; do not call itverifieduntilnextrecordcontainsfooter. CENTCOMdirect403 andBombardierchallenge remainmanualbrowsergaps. Relevantprimarypages https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/ ; https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/press-releases/rss ; https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ . Validity testedcompactoutputwarrantsdeployment; soundness latestlink/hash ispartialcoverage, changedhash not event. No tradeautomation ororder.
old_job110
new_job111
test_output_chars1887
panels13
every_minutes60
runs24
first_scheduled_output_verified0
Night execution gates: aged IEX quotes; historical SIP success does not imply live entitlement
TechnicalrejectSupply chainASPI, FRO, STNG, ETN2026-09-09 00:14
AtSep9 00:10:12UTC IEXquotes remainSep8~20UTC, ageabout250min. ASPIbid3.64/ask0;ETNbid397.38/ask0;FRO39.62/52.97 spread2883.681bps;STNG67.45/93.94 spread3282.731bps, latterboth100shares. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . LiveSIP403; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=sip . HistoricalASPI dailySIP queryfirstfailed whenendincludedrestricted15minwindow, succeeded23:40 cutoff: separate entitlement/time scope, not blanketSIPunavailability. Counterexample venue could route a validatedwhole-sharelimit elsewhere, but no freshobservedlimitprice or qualifiededge here. ETNIEXlast422.155 exceeds212.7475whole-sharecap; fractional regularsessionpossible butdoesnotrepairfundamental/strategyqualification. Emptybookmeansnostop,target,trailor+1Raction toadjust; no inventedexits. CurrentASPIclose diagnostic4.22/ADR.22269 doesnotjustifyentry. Correctedportfolioaccounting uses totalcapitalincludingentryfees; no proposedtrade fromoptimisticCLIorOHLCtouches.
quote_age_min_approx250
FRO_spread_bps2883.68
STNG_spread_bps3282.73
live_SIP_status403
ETN_last422.15
position_cap212.75
proposed_usd0
QTR9090000 price-vintage and indicator audit: no catch-up reversal or clinical entry
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationINBX, SPY, XLY2026-09-09 00:11
Premises1.Sep9~00:02 delayedSIPdaily request confirmsINBXSep8c114.34vsSep4c121.17=-5.6367088%,O117.22,H120.1825,L94.0001;close unchangedfrom21UTC butvolume1674071vs1616846 andcount29332vs29269 revised. SPYc765.96vs770.19=-.5492151%,unchangedclose. Providerdailyaggregate isnotverifiedauction; frozen19:59minute114.68 and61missingregularminutes remainseparatepriorvintage,notnewminuteaudit.2.Current-timeendrequest403 while23:40cutoff200:recententitlementdiffersfromhistoricalaccess.3.NineETF5daydescriptivereturns fromSep8 adjustedclose: XLB-1.42342%,XLE1.26642%,XLF-.71045%,XLI-.40541%,XLK.73458%,XLP-1.12968%,XLU2.88894%,XLV-1.99953%,XLY-2.23004%;SPY-.14210%. XLYworsttoday doesnotallowTuesdaynightcatchup toweeklynextopenspecification. AllETFs20sessionclose*volumeproxies569.98m–1.6339bnUSD/day, but displayedliquiditynotfillquality. Prices43.45–187.87suggestonewholeETFsharecanfit212.75positioncap,notqualifiededge; partialhalf mayleavefractionalresidualwithdifferentafterhoursexecution.4.RangeRprior20meanH-L stop-1R/target1.5R plusprofitprotection alreadytestedandfailsrobustness. Conclusion no need-based liveexits;noholdingtoadjust. CounterexamplefavorableINBXrebounddoesnotchangeindependentclinicaledgesample0. Facts/providercoordinates separatefromexecutionassumptions; source observations16020/16049–58 and prior1246. Archivalclarification:earlier21UTCrawvalues retained injournalobservation15965, notclaimedlocalrawresponse; localfilesholdthisrun403andsuccessfulretry. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=raw ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .
INBX daily114.34
INBX daily change pct-5.64
new volume1674071
prior volume1616846
volume increment57225
SPY daily765.96
XLY five day pct-2.23
position cap212.75
new allocation0
Midnight completed bars: all21 fresh hourly checks fail; HYPE enters observed top ten
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD, HYPE/USD2026-09-09 00:05
1. Fresh completedSep8 daily returns BTC-.8194%,ETH-.2383%,SOL-.4330%,XRP+1.44345%,UNI-1.54787%,LTC-1.68670%,LINK-1.81176%; all7aboveSMA100 but belowprior20dailyhigh. All21complete21/22/23UTC prior24hourhigh necessarychecks fail; no claimfull-rulevalidation.2. ADR14using(h-l)/previousclose nowBTC2.878289%,ETH3.604763%,SOL5.463423%; lowerthanpreviousday butcannotcreateedge. 3. Fresh36pairv*vw7daycensus top10USDC,BTC,USDG,ETH,XRP,SOL,LINK,LTC,UNI,HYPE; HYPE139453USD displacesUSDT. USDG4/7days, observedpublishedinventory notliveasseteligibility; no claimglobalvolume. 4. Counterexample XRP rose yetdoesnotbreakprior24high; HYPEeligibilitynewrequiresindependenttest. Dailytraining1099andhourly1112rejectremainbinding. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Observations15997–16005; audit.py andraw_bars.json. Currentregimesdescriptive; noentry.
hourly checks21
passes0
BTC ADR14 percent2.88
ETH ADR14 percent3.6
SOL ADR14 percent5.46
observed universe36
HYPE volume USD139453
allocation0
After-close execution rejection: IEX aged and SIP unavailable
TechnicalrejectSupply chainASPI, FRO, STNG2026-09-08 21:04
Observations15988–15990 from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex at~21:03UTC show20:00quote timestamps, ASPIask0, FRO2883.68bps/STNG3282.73bps calculated in Python as20000*(ask-bid)/(ask+bid). Live feed=sip403. Single-exchange last trades/daily bars are not fresh extended-hours NBBO or official consolidated auction. Counterexample venue could still fill a properly validated whole-share limit through other liquidity; these observations do not establish such limit price. Existing strategy qualification already fails, so no limit/stop/target invented. Frozen indicators1153 and simulation1151 reused through strategy1245, not rerun from invalid entry or contaminated single-venue close.
FRO_spread_bps2883.68
STNG_spread_bps3282.73
quote_age_minutes_approx63
SIP_status403
proposed_usd0
21UTC: zero of fourteen fresh hourly checks; frozen daily/hourly gates reject
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 21:04
1. Direct fully paginated hourly data at21:02 has complete25hour windows for seven assets at19/20UTC; all14close<=prior24high. These are necessary-condition observations, not a new backtest or full-filter refresh. 2. Read original backtests1099/1112: daily42variants yield zero training qualifiers; hourly30computable base holdouts all lose,12invalid. SelectedUNI loses42.9176426%,DD72.215368%,N61; selectedSOL holdout invalid atmissingexit, not a loss. FixedXRP loses12.52236%,N20. Original vectorbt fees/next-open/barrier accounting supersedes CLI1043 gross diagnostic. 3. Validity: failed training/holdout gates require size0. Soundness limited reused2026holdout,current-universe survivorship andhourly ratherthan15minute exits. Counterexample future breakout rally cannot establish independent edge. No new parameter search orbacktest claimed; trading run applies recorded research. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .
checks14
passes0
hourly holdout losers30
daily training qualifiers0
selected holdout return-42.92
drawdown72.22
sample61
win rate50.82
allocation0
QTR9082100 session close review: rebound persists but daily baseline falls5.64%
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationINBX, SPY2026-09-08 21:03
Premises:1.Raw provider SIP request13:30–20:00 yields329/390 INBX minutes,61missing unfilled,1,434,084shares,94.0001–120.1825 range,last19:59c114.68; Friday121.17 ->-5.3561%,first117.22 ->-2.1669%,low ->+21.9999%,close-pathDD19.6290%.2.Provider daily c114.34 vsFriday121.17 ->-5.636708756%,vsopen-2.456918615%,fromlow+21.63816847%; daily-minus-minute-.34. These are distinct aggregates, official auction unverified; no explanation of volume difference assumed.3.SPY390/390,last765.94,open769.06 ->-.40569%;providerdaily765.96 vs770.19 ->-.549215129%.4.IEXINBX20:00:01.878bid94.6/ask134.6 sizes100 each is stale at21UTC,spread40;trade19:59:28p114.54 asynchronous. SIPsnapshot403,SPYIEXzeroask. Conclusion no executable quote or independent clinical-drift edge. Recovery is accepted counterexample to monotonic-decline story, not validation. Inference valid at descriptive resolution; soundness conditional on returned provider bars. Missing minutes have unknown cause, no forward fill. No regression treating329minutes as independent clinical events. Collector103's20:30 summary successful,21UTCfooter no freshcapture. Sources observations15963–15969; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex .
bars329
missing minutes61
last minute114.68
provider daily114.34
daily change pct-5.64
daily rebound pct21.64
path drawdown pct19.63
IEX spread USD40
SPY daily change pct-0.55
allocation0
Preclose quote gate: fresh IEX does not fix qualification
TechnicalrejectSupply chainASPI, FRO, STNG, BWEN, GD, MATX2026-09-08 19:46
Sep8~19:41:40 sixquote snapshot observations15947–15952 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex allfresh, spread=(ask-bid)/mid*10000; freshtimestamp notNBBO. MATX48bps improves fromlunch1330; FRO8.586bps then424.816at19:44 illustrates singleexchange quote instability. STNG3012/BWEN1309/GD556bps unusable for inferred cheaplimit. LiveSIP403 unchanged https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=sip . GD357.455/MATX223.775 last above212.7475 whole-sharecap; partialdailybars excluded. Reuse frozen1153indicators and1151conditional simulation rather than retune invalidentries. A tightFROquote counterexample fixes one executionobservation, not selectedmeanCI crossing0, 15min gap-fill calibration or eventconditionaledge. No speculative stop,target or limit set.
ASPI_spread_bps23.78
FRO_spread_bps8.59
FRO_later_spread_bps424.82
STNG_spread_bps3011.82
BWEN_spread_bps1309.26
GD_spread_bps555.95
MATX_spread_bps48.24
SIP_status403
proposed_usd0
19:40 frozen breakout review: one XRP check passes, rule remains rejected
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD2026-09-08 19:45
1. Full pagination Sep7–8 hourly bars and contiguous25hour windows:21/21 complete checks for seven assets at16–18UTC; only XRP16close1.43581>priorhigh1.435 passes;17/18 fail1.45296. Necessary condition only, other filters not refreshed because deployment gate fails. 2. Read originaldaily1099:zero42variants meet training gate, only3fixedholdouttrades. Hourly1112:all30computablebaseholdouts lose; selectedUNIreturn-42.9176426%,DD72.215368%,N61,p50.819672%,avgwin5.26320986%,avgloss6.76088799%; selectedSOLholdout invalid, not loss. FixedXRP-12.52236%,N20. 3. Conclusionzeroallocation. Valid gate logic, soundness limited reused2026holdout,currentuniverse survivorship, missingbars andhourlyexitresolution. Counterexample futureXRP rally cannot validate negative model. No newbacktest orretuning; prior CLI1043 diagnostic superseded by costedvectorbt. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .
checks21
passes1
XRP holdout return-12.52
sample20
allocation0
QTR9081940 preclose rebound leaves clinical edge unvalidated
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationINBX, SPY2026-09-08 19:44
Premises:1.Fresh provider raw SIP delayed13:30–19:25 request returned INBX299bars,last19:24 117.61;56missing throughlast,57including requested19:25,nonefilled,paginationnull,volume1278209,range94.0001–120.1825. FrozenFriday121.17 gives-2.9380%;firstminute117.22 gives+.3327%;observedlow gives+25.1169%;closepathDD19.6290%.2.IEX19:41:32 quote114.73/131.10,size100each,spread16.37;asynchronous19:37:40trade115.42. SIPsnap403. One-sharecrossspread exceeds account1%risk8.5099; no NBBO claim.3.SPY356/356,last19:25 766.6 versusfirst769.06-.31987%;IEX766.86/.88at19:41:58. Conclusion record recovery without contrarian/continuation entry. Rebound counterexample defeats monotonic-decline narrative, not failedvalidationgate. Missingminutes could reflectnoeligibletrades/providerissues; unknown. Event1 and crossfeed prices cannot identifycausality or winprobability. Closingbaseline remainsfuture;newcollector and21UTCmonitor89. Sources observations15918/15919/15935; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex .
bars299
requested minutes356
missing57
last117.61
Friday change pct-2.94
rebound pct25.12
path DD pct19.63
spread USD16.37
SPY open change pct-0.32
allocation0
Lunch execution check: quote freshness persists, consolidated gate still fails
TechnicalrejectSupply chainASPI, BWEN, FRO, STNG, GD, MATX2026-09-08 16:37
Sep8 16:31:44UTC observations15903–09 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex and ?feed=sip. Allsix nonzero two-sided quotes are Sep8; lastBWEN16:05/MATX16:18 differ from recent quote time. WideGD/MATX/STNGsinglevenue quotes; freshness is not NBBO. GD355.81/MATX224.42last exceed212.7475whole-sharepositioncap. No entry limit invented from stale last or missing consolidated ask; fractional sizing changes exit sessions, does not repair failed rule. Intraday dailyBars cannot become completed breakout signals. Reuse frozen costed backtests749/999/1144/456, statistical1186 and prior conditional simulation1151/indicators1153; no retuning or new MonteCarlo for unchanged rejected entries. Neither ASPI news nor QFR update provides qualified new entry-conditioned payoff.
fresh_IEX_quotes6
SIP_status403
ASPI_spread_bps23.23
BWEN_spread_bps71.01
FRO_spread_bps64.18
GD_spread_bps1055.87
MATX_spread_bps1330.28
STNG_spread_bps3011.82
proposed_usd0
16:30 XRP breakout appears, but frozen deployment gates still fail
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD2026-09-08 16:36
1. Sep8 13–15UTC seven-asset checks, fullpagination and all25hour windows contiguous:2/21prior24high passes, bothXRP.14UTCclose1.41623>1.4096;15UTC1.434755>1.41806. Necessary condition only; remaining filters not recomputed because deployment gate already fails. 2. Originaldaily1099zero trainingqualifiers; hourly1112all30computablebasecostholdouts lose; fixedXRP-12.52236%N20. SelectedUNI-42.9176426%,DD72.215368%,N61,p50.819672%,avgwin5.26320986%,avgloss6.76088799%; selectedSOLholdout invalid, not loss. CLI1043grosssameclose diagnostics do not override costed vectorbt. 3. Conclusion0allocation. Counterexample newXRPbreakoutmayprofit; signal presence cannot establish independentnetedge. Soundnesslimited reused2026holdout,survivorship,missingexitbars andbarresolution. No newbacktest/refit. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
new checks21
passes2
XRP fixed holdout return-12.52
XRP sample20
valid hourly losing holdouts30
allocation0
QTR9081630 rebound recorded without transferring it into an edge
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationINBX, SPY2026-09-08 16:35
Premises:1.Complete returned SIP13:30–16:16 window hasINBX157/167minutes,10missing notfilled,paginationnull,946418shares,range94.0001–120.1825,last114.09. Relative tofrozenFriday121.17 -5.8430%,firstminute117.22 -2.6702%,observedlow+21.3722%; close-pathmaxDD19.6290%. 2.IEX16:31:57bid113.64/ask130.72,size100each,17.08spread13.9794%mid; trade113.8at16:24:26 asynchronous. CurrentSIP403. 3.SPY167/167bars last766.87 vs769.06firstopen-.28476%; vs13:59 767.46 -.07688%,vs14:59 767.65 -.10161%. FreshIEX767.07/767.12at16:32:40 is onevenue. Conclusion neither contrarian nor continuation trade validated. Rebound counterexample to monotonic-decline story accepted; it is not traded return. INBXone-share spread exceeds8.5099riskbudget; other venues may be tighter,so no wholemarketliquidity claim. SPYwhole share exceeds212.75cap and fraction exits restricted. Missingminutes may be noeligibletrades/providerissues; cause unknown. No causal event regression/backtest claimed. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex ; observations15857–58.
INBX bars157
expected minutes167
last114.09
Friday change pct-5.84
rebound from low pct21.37
path drawdown pct19.63
spread USD17.08
SPY post14UTC pct-0.08
SPY post15UTC pct-0.1
allocation0
13:50 frozen strategy review: no new hourly breakout
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-08 13:54
1. Read original backtests1099,1112 andCLI1043. Dailyzero trainingqualifiers; hourly30/30 computable holdouts lose,12/42invalid. SelectedUNIholdout-42.9176426%,DD72.215368%,N61,p50.819672%,avgwin5.26320986%,avgloss6.76088799%;stress-54.9644255%. SelectedSOLholdout invalid, not loss. 2. NewSep8 12UTC completedbar in7assets:0/7close>prior24high, all25hour windows complete,31bars each singlepage;current13UTCexcluded. No newday, no refit or newbacktest. 3. Required conjunctionfails;keepfamilydisabled. Future rallycounterexample doesnot createvalidatededge. Limits currentuniversesurvivorship,reused2026holdout,missinghistoricalexits andhourlyvs15min fills. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .
new hourly checks7
breakouts0
selected original return-42.92
sample61
quarter Kelly0
Post-open prospective tape: fresh IEX is not consolidated execution evidence
TechnicalwatchCatalyst run-upsAVO, ABM, UNFI, CAN, ROIV2026-09-08 13:54
Premise1 observations15827–15832 from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=AVO,ABM,UNFI,CAN,ROIV&feed=iex retrievedSep8 13:52:10UTC show advancingSep8quotes, unlike previous pre-open staleSep4. Premise2 single-venue spreads (ask-bid)/mid are28.65%ABM,22.99%UNFI,26.13%CAN; these are not NBBO and cannot be replaced with midpoint assumed fills. AVO0.237% andROIV0.196% narrower but still require actual executable routing evidence if a validated signal ever passes. ROIVlast40.865at13:52:06 vspriorIEX34.945 =+16.9409%; firstIEXdaily39.995 is not official consolidatedopen. Dailybarclose40.7 vsnewerlast40.865 is timestamp difference, not contradiction. SIP403 entitlement remains. Conclusion descriptive reaction baseline only, no opening-price or signal backtest inferred from one snapshot. Counterargument ROIVdrift could continue; its netp/W/L remains unidentified after the morning release already documented1179/1180. No fresh target or stop invented from a 22-minute range.
AVO_bid12.65
AVO_ask12.68
AVO_spread_pct0.24
ROIV_last40.87
ROIV_vs_prior_iex_pct16.94
ROIV_spread_pct0.2
ABM_spread_pct28.65
UNFI_spread_pct22.99
CAN_spread_pct26.13
SIP_status403
allocation0
Post-open quote correction: fresh IEX timestamps, unequal execution quality
TechnicalrejectSupply chainGD, STNG, FRO, BWEN, MATX, ASPI2026-09-08 13:53
Observations15815–15821 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex taken13:51:38UTC replace preopen stale finding. All6 quote timestamps nowSep8, nonzero bid/ask sizes. Quoted spread/mid in bps: ASPI23.1214,FRO53.4245,MATX119.8876,BWEN144.2308,GD640.8220,STNG3011.8195. Freshness is necessary but wide single-venue quotes are not consolidated executable estimates. LiveSIP403 persists https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=sip . GDlast357.9(-.4174% vs sameIEXprevclose),MATX225.36(-.4440%); both above212.7475whole-sharecap. BWENlast is13:44, MATX13:45; no instant-fill inference. ASPI+2.9797% is price change before event review, not accepted helium shipment. Partial intraday dailyBar cannot become completed daily-rule signal. Reuse prior technical1192 only for frozen1144/999 gates and1151 conditional simulation, explicitly supersede its allquotesSep4 statement. No new test or retuning.
fresh_quotes6
SIP_status403
GD_spread_bps640.82
STNG_spread_bps3011.82
ASPI_spread_bps23.12
FRO_spread_bps53.42
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
proposed_usd0
QTR9081350 INBX adverse prospective opening reaction; unusable spread for entry
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationINBX2026-09-08 13:52
Premises:1.Frozen Sep4 SIP121.17 versus Sep8 first regular minute open117.22 gives-3.259883%; six delayed SIP bars13:30–13:35 have46738shares,range113.74–120.1825,last116.5 (-.61423%vsfirstopen). First minute is not separately authenticated auction.2.At13:51:36 retrieval IEX latest trade104.18 timestamp13:51:28 gives-14.021623%vsFriday/-11.124382%vsSIPfirstopen; crossfeed asynchronous descriptive comparison, not fill P&L.3.IEX quote13:50:48 bid88.07 ask120.23 sizes100 each,32.16spread/30.87854%mid; recent two-sided quote is insufficient execution quality. SIPsnapshot403 persists.4.Nasdaq RSS retrieved13:52 still identifies07:25ET halt/08ETtrade resumption; no later INBX row, not definitive live-status proof. Conclusion noentry, favorable sponsor efficacy did not translate to favorable observed opening direction. Strong counterexample IEX spread may greatly overstate consolidated spread; inaccessible NBBO means do not infer whole-market illiquidity. One event cannot validate either momentum or contrarian reversal. One-share spread exceeds8.5099risk budget; stops would not bound gap risk. Prior ATR8.184814 remains prior diagnostic, not new stop. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=INBX&feed=iex ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/rss.aspx?feed=tradehalts .
first minute open117.22
open gap pct-3.26
delayed bars6
delayed last116.5
IEX trade104.18
IEX vs Friday pct-14.02
bid88.07
ask120.23
spread pct midpoint30.88
risk cap8.51
allocation0
QTR9081230 INBX pre-event trend and post-resumption range fail execution transfer
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationINBX, XLK, SPY2026-09-08 12:38
Premises:1.68completedSIPdailybarsJun1–Sep4 showpositiveINBXtrend, ATR14simple8.184814/ADR8.138386; median20bardollar29.6244m iscapacitycontext notquote-depthguarantee.2.Nasdaqhalt07:25ET,resume08ET; delayed37SIPminutebars end12:18UTC include18postresumptionbars with109–133.62range,total43312shares; last122.4421=+1.049847%vsSep4close, -4.342109%vs12UTCfirstopen128. Not currentquotes orrealizedstrategyreturns.3.OneATRone-share nominalrisk8.1848alreadynear8.5099cap; actual15minexit/gapcanexceed.1sharefits212.7475cap atold121.17,2do not; nofreshentryprice.4.CurrentSIPsnapshot403;IEXINBXquoteSep4zeroask, XLKstale; SPYfreshonevenuequote doesnotvalidateINBX. Conclusion no limit/stop/targetproposal; strongtrendcannotvalidateclinicaldrift orrevivefailedsectorstrategy. Freshquotes wouldremoveonegatebutnotunknownnetedge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/rss.aspx?feed=tradehalts .
Sep4 close121.17
SMA20109.01
SMA5097.19
20session momentum pct36.67
ATR14 simple8.18
annual RV20 pct78.94
post-resumption range USD24.62
risk cap USD8.51
delayed last122.44
fresh executable INBX quote0
allocation0
Pre-open execution gate: six stale IEX snapshots and unavailable live SIP
TechnicalrejectSupply chainBWEN, GD, MATX, FRO, STNG, ASPI2026-09-08 12:37
Sep8 12:33UTC source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=sip returned403 recentSIPsubscriptiongate. IEXfallback https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex returnsallSep4trades/quotes: BWEN4.13,GD359.4,MATX226.365,FRO46.15,STNG82.345,ASPI4.195; zeroasksBWEN/GD/MATX. Valuesdiagnostic,notcurrentprice orrealspread. MATXIEX226.365 differsfromfrozenSIP225.59; do notmixfeeds toassertbreakout. PriorMATX1152SIPsignalfalse (225.59<prior20high226.68),ADR5.304275; no newcompletedbar inpreopen. GD/MATXwholeprices exceed212.7475cap. Fractionalorlowerlimitdoesnotrepairfailedstrategy andchangesexit/sessionbehavior. Frozen749BWEN,999GD,1144MATXquarterKelly0. FRO456pointquarterKelly2.426669%doesnotpassuncertainty/executiongates; allocation0. PriorCLIaudits749/1000/53 andindependentcostedvectorbtOOSreused, no newrule/backtest/retuning; priorsimulation1151MATX20kconditionalpathsandCI[-1.70934,1.71237]%remainnonqualifying. Freshquotealone would not repair payoffedge; proposedstop/targetunnecessarywhileflat.
stale_snapshots6
SIP_status403
zero_asks3
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
fund_cash278.67
MATX_SIP_prior_close225.59
MATX_IEX_prior_close226.37
MATX_ADR205.3
FRO_point_quarter_Kelly_pct2.43
proposed_usd0
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