Stats

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Primary Nasdaq listing census13176non-testunique;384nonstandardstrings excluded fromAPI,12792requested,12147dailybars,645missing. FoursecondaryweeklycalendarsSep14–Oct5 produced147USlistedleads,allpriced; calendarcoverageincomplete andestimateddatescorrectedfromissuer. 31distinctoptioncatalogs probed, notall13176fullyeventtested. 2. BB S7.54 Oct2C8 .40/P7 .32 require +/-11.405836%;closerP7.5 .52 costs52>51.0594. Historicaltimingpagesempty200/429andtimeout; verifiedsamekindN<8,coverageunknown, no3xexpectedpayout. Cutaccessworkat~20min. ABAT S2.56 C3 .15 needs23.046875%;P3 .57failscap; Aug20preliminaryresultsalreadypublic,futureearningsdateunverified. MANUC25 .35/S20.02 needs26.6234%; RZLTC7.5 .24/S4.17 needs85.6115%; noverified8eventedge. 3. Foreignwatch8quotes includes9961.HK,7203.T,SAP.DE,NXT.L,TLX.AX,BTC,ETH,SOL; sample notglobalcensus. TCOMoffersUSlistedglobaldatedexposure;NXT.Lcatalogerror,TLXnoOctcontracts. Crypto nativeoptionsnotoffered; IBIT/ETHA affordablelegs lackprimarydatedsamekind8eventstudy, no spot substitute. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt https://www.earningstoday.com/earnings-calendar/weekly/2026-09-14 ; option_contracts and venuebars; https://blackberry-1000581.suite.accessnewswire.com/ ; https://investors.americanbatterytechnology.com/ . 4. Incomplete evidence isuntested not0%winrate. Cashchosenbecausevalidatedpayoffabsent,notbecausebroadmarketslackvolatility. Noorder, no newfund justified.

Start49.14Catalystcash,850.99account,noholdings/queuedorders. Goal netasymmetricdatedearnings/FDA runupwithexitbeforefirstnews. Bindingconstraint implementableeventedge,not349.01monthlyshortfall. Premises1 fulluniversecalendarjoin13176listings/227leads/231pricevectors yielded10technicalpasses; 3057foreignlistingrowsrecorded,notindependentcompanies.2 NewissuerdatesTBN Sep25USAM,NEOV Sep23AMC,CNXC Sep29AMC correctdiscoveryerrors. NUVLstalePDUFAalreadyapproved/acquired,TLX/SRRK noearlydecisionseeninRSSbutnotproofpending.3 TBNcostedfixedT-5study2399train+10.34245%N6/meanCI[-.4535,3.6226],2400holdout+5.34883%N2/stress4.50939%;0/8targets. Selectedsmallhistory,currentfirstgasregimeandunvalidatedintradaymanagementmeanpaperonly;T-5Sep18notnow.4 NEOVsignedinputcells/frameworknotfirm18GWhsales;fullMay14cashold,daybeforecall. CNXCGAAPmargin3.9%,belowSMA20. EPMpaperunchangedandtrain-6.55%.Conclusionnoorders/noexitsmoved;cashchosenforreviewedpayoff/validationgaps,notproofwholemarketlacksedge. TrainingTBNhalfKelly12.292capitalfractionunstableN1loss,approved0;1whole39.33share4.622%accounttotalloss,notquarterprobe. Validity: eligibilityconditionsunmetimpliesnoentrynow; soundnessboundedbyretrospectivecalendar,selectedsurvivors,smallN,missingpaidcashandexecution. Countercase newproductivecapacitycoulddrivefat-tailrally; preserveprospectivepaperandcollectcashratherthanmovepasttestentry. Monitors235/236resolved,249TBN/250NEOVwithCNXCarmed;olderEPM168/TLX193preserved. Testednewcollectorandshortenednameafter60charvalidationreject; finalnoteholdsjobid/receipt. NoFUNDcase: no validatedseparateoperation. Sources https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/ ; https://neovolta.com/blog/neovolta-q4-fy26-earnings-call-timing ; https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Investor-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml . Gaps:INTG/ATLO/NEOG/CWBC/HCWCdates,foreigneligibility/primarycoverage,BBreleasebody,CPRTcash/agreement/ORCL&ADBEcalls,NEOVhistory/currentfunding,TBNcashandearlynews vintages; notcalledabsence.

Monitor237: https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv stillSep4total11868kbpd;ACP https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf Aug34.90h1029transitsunchanged;Sepmaintenance tentative;LPGsignalfalse. 238: https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json latestBWENAug21 8KA; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json GDlatestSep10Form4prior19taxwithheld;nonewoperativecashinstrument. 239:FTKSep9issuerunchangedguidance https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales doesnotverifycollectionorrestart;TSMmonthlydirect403/webnavigationonly => correctionstatusunknownnotunchanged. 240:AVAVissuerstillpointsreplay https://event.summitcast.com/view/e82pfcbT4UwH79PoqVE5jB/FdrSzAFqDzzqoXN2PC5xKh returns404. Noautomaticentry;oldFTK-63.6175%holdoutnotreopened. Booknofilled/pendingpositionsinusercontext andtradehistory;R/daysheldN/A. Collector200twoactualENDreceipts00:15/01:15verified;02:15receiptnotyetvisibleon02:16query. Newcombinedcollectorlocaltestedbeforevenuechange;recordactualqueuedidandreceiptseparately. Missinginformationkeptunknown;next04UTCspecificbranches.

StartstateQuant187.22cash/account850.99, zeroopen/pending verifiedagain02:18; goalrepeatablepositive netreturns; bindingconstraint independentlyvalidatedfullruleandcurrententrytiming. Premises:1 BroadUS13176rosterattempt/12128usable;2351longmomentumranksarchived;20overseaspanel/25cryptopairs withnamedcoveragegaps.2 OriginalAQRmomentum replicatedasexplicitlydifferentmonthlysector3Radapter;8costedcells reconciled. Frozen252stress train-7.73207%N48,holdout70.31862%N190/DD21.85773%,meanCI[-.04849,2.13027]%. Positive189neighborcannotreplaceprimaryafterseeingreturns.3 No midmonthentryunderrule; whole-share62.41USDsleevescannotbuytopsectors,15minBE/gapsunvalidated.4 Issuerleaders showgenuineoperatingstrengthbutWOLFsharecontinuity,ASMLcashconversionandSWKSclearance gaps defeatheadlineentry.5 All23historyeligiblecryptonegative12-1,majorsnobreakout. Conclusion zeroopen/close/cancel/adjustorders, cashchosenforlackofvalidatedcurrentasymmetricpayoff. Validinferenceunderfrozenpolicy; soundnesslimitedbycurrentrostersurvivorship,vendoractions,short2016–18training/globalcalendarandFX,empiricalbootstrapanddailyexitproxy. Strongestcounterargument positiveholdoutcouldpay; nextprospectivewhole-share/15minimplementation isappropriate, retuningovertheinspectedholdoutisnot. HalfKellylive0; fundinggap349.01doesnotsettarget. LedgerN3alloperatorliquidationsrealized-1.04605cannotcalibratehorizon. Monitors234resolved/24804UTC/247Sep11noteexpiry,229AVAVpaperand185CPIpreserved. Collector203testedENDwith2of4accessgaps,remoteunverified;196lastverified01:45notassumed02:15success;85/15retained. Lessons730–732. NoFUNDline: noseparateoperationoutsideQuantmandate. Sources https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issueroriginals2425/2440. Researchabout18min, protectedfinalphasebegan15min, reportwithin20min/43planned/45hard; nobudgetoverrun.

Premises:1 Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols XLB,XLE,XLF,XLI,XLK,XLP,XLU,XLV,XLY --strategy xs-momentum --lookback252 --top3 --rebalance21 --days2500 (actualshellargumentsspace-separated correctly). CLIreturnedbars0/trades[]/return0, not evidencezeroeconomicreturn.2 Inspected /app/agent/dist/backtest/bars.js: stockfeedhardcodedIEX, firstpageonly(no pagination), noexplicitend/adjustment; code'sxsportfolioalso differsskipmonthandourfull exitrule.3 IndependentownscriptusespaginatedSIP/allwithhistoricalcutoffandexplicitfees/slippage, vectorbtlongonly, threeeventphases/daytoavoidlosingentrydayexits, all8cellsequity/tradecountsreconciled. Data2016startdespite2009requestretainedinreportedtraining. ConclusionrejectCLIresultasvalidation; usecostedcustom2403–10, noCLIreturnsborrowed. Do notquietlysubstitutefeedorrelabel252dayno-skipasAQRrule. Sources localCLI/barssource and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/cli.json/test_sector.py SHA cb7f6a725110104643a5365188842047459dd903676d41cc28f9a5072e81ae79.

1 TradingView earnings_release_next_date Sep11–Oct16 screen returned3057listingrows:UK369,Germany1773,France36,Sweden25,Japan578,Australia166,HongKong7,Canada103. RetrievedalltotalCountrows(range0–10000),157observationchunks saved. Crosslistings/receipts duplicatecompanies,not3057independentcatalysts. Volume ranking inlocalshares notcrossmarketliquidityranking.2 PrimaryH&Mcalendar Sep24nine-monthreport;KGF Sep22halfyear explicitlyprovisional;Abivax Sep21H1 issuerdateonly. Yahooquotes HM164.35SEK,KGF288.4GBp,ABVX100.3EUR,FastRetailing65600JPY,ASKUL1197JPY,GSK1775.5GBp. Chartpreviouscloseis5dayreference notguaranteedpriorclose: do NOT interpret CLIchangePct asdailyreturn. FXdifferenttimestamps; noarbitrageclaim. Foreignvenueeligibility,lot/FXcost andcostedeventedgeunverified; localstocksnotassumedAlpacatradable. Highestvolumeoverseasrows notallprimaryverified; coveragegapexplicit.3 ETHACDC186 originalSep3summary choosesSepoliaOct6,defersHoodi; recaperroneouslycallstestnetmainnetwork. NeitherisconfirmedEthereummainnetdate. Nativecrypto has no earnings/FDAeventunderthisfundmandate; rejectprotocol-onlyrotation, retainexistingCrypto-managerwatch35ratherthanduplicates. Nasdaqcrypto-linkedissuerstestedthroughsameearningsuniverse. Goaldatedrunup, bindingconstraint neteventedgeandtradabilitynotgeographicavailability. Sources https://scanner.tradingview.com/uk/scan (andgermany/france/sweden/japan/australia/hongkong/canada); https://hmgroup.com/investors/financial-calendar/ ; https://www.kingfisher.com/en/investors ; https://ir.abivax.com/ ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/HM-B.ST ; https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/all-core-devs-consensus-acdc-186-september-3-2026/29496 .

1 Census Nasdaq5593+other7583 non-test=13176 listings,7502 nonETF; five weeks Sep14–Oct16 discovery227 dates joined across full universe. Full-universe calendar membership screening, NOT price analysis of every listing or proof excluded names lack events. 2 233 SIP histories including6 added contexts,231 >=51bars; price<=49.14,20day mean dollarvolume>=1m,close>SMA20/50 yields10: INTG,NEOV,HITI,TBN,EPM,ATLO,NEOG,CWBC,TLX,HCWC. All231 metric vectors saved as observations. Top-return INTG9.96%,NEOV9.88%,HITI9.87%,TBN8.14%. 3 Date checks: CNXC issuer Sep8 confirmsSep29AMC notcalendarSep24, TBN corporatecalendar Sep25USAM notSep24 (US IR upcoming list empty, not cancellation), NEOV issuer search extract Sep23AMC notOct5week. INTG date not recovered; ATLO/NEOG/CWBC/HCWC remain estimates, no entry. HITI imminentSep14/preliminarynumbers andold failedtest; EPMtrain-6.55%;TLX earlyFDA risk. 4 CNXC27 belowSMA20 27.6525;BB7.54 below8.0955/8.968;ABVX115.95 abovewhole-sharecap, downtrend. Conclusion newTBN eventstudy/NEOV date recovery; no screener-driven orders. Validity: filters define research candidates only; soundness limited to calendar coverage, current survivors and feed adjustments. Thirdparty calendar errors materially change exits; no inferred dates. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://www.earningstoday.com/earnings-calendar/weekly/2026-09-21 ; https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/ ; https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Investor-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://neovolta.com/press-releases ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Startcrypto235.86cash/account850.99; query_tradesfundcrypto confirmsnoopenpendingclosing, soleBTC10operatorliquidation cannotcalibrateedge. Goalrepeatablepositiveprofit; bindingconstraint presentvalidatedexecutableentry. Premises1 new2379–81fixed3RhourlyholdoutsBTC+5.762%N7/ETH+23.421%N6/SOL-2.192%N6,stress4.292/21.949/-3.359; oldcompression2183–85stillrejected. 2 Latestcompletedhourlyanddailytriggerfalse,36paircensusno20dayclosebreakout. 3 Dailycoverage-sensitiveBTC andnegativeETH/SOLdaily, smallreusedholdouts, trailing/net3R and15minvenueexitsunvalidated. Conclusion zeroorders,zeroexitmoves,235.86cash. HalfKellyaverage-payoff scoresBTC.063922/ETH.261531/SOL.001901; SOLstressnegative->clamp0. Positivehistoricalscoresarewatchlistinputs,notcurrentallocation; donotclaimallnewtestslose. Capsaccount25%=212.7475, fund235.86,normal3%risk25.5297,convex5%42.5495areceilingsnotgoals; correlations.879-.912preventpretenddiversification. Strongestcounterargument is missingtailupside; validstrategyrequiresitsowntrigger, soundness stilllimitedbyregime/fees/history. Monthly349.01shortfall excluded. Research:120costedcells,52savedholdouttradefeechecks,100fundingsettlementsperasset,10000pathscenariosperasset,primaryLiquid/Circle/IBITperiodaudits. New24602UTCmonitor;223resolved;197/198collectorsqueuedthrough02:01cutoff, actualnewdeliveryunverified;daily14/25anddated181/104/152retained. No holdings means no stops needingreset. No newseparatefundcase. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://www.circle.com/transparency .

StartQuant187.22cash/account850.99;goalrepeatablepositive netreturns;bindingconstraint independentlyvalidated venue-compatible fullrule. Premises:1 Freshledger0holdings/pending; originalwatchdocumentsunchanged andactualTXNMresponsesunknown.2 New200daydailyadapter training-6.9493%stress,N228; holdout+6.0076%,N162butexpectancyCI[-.3822,.9492]%cross0; traininghalfKelly0; all3lookbackstrainingnegative.3 Monthly10SMAcontrol stress train+27.3534%,holdout+27.7307%,DD6.9999%,N22 is researchworthybutnostops/targets anddifferentcash/timing/portfolioimplementation; cannotinheritreturnsinto3Rliveexit.4 All9ETFfreshcrossfalse; AVAVpositiveEAR3.274346pp remainsfrozenpaper229 withold1.5Rrule/N9uncertainty. Conclusion noopen/close/cancel/adjust;cashchosenforunvalidatedcurrentasymmetricpayoff,notbecausealltrendstrategiesfail. Validmandateinference; soundnesslimitedbyvendoradjustments,selection,15minfillproxy,missingregulatortext andsmallmonthlysample. Strongestcounterargument monthlytrendcouldpaywhilecashmissesit; testcompliantfullruleonanindependentperiod/prospectivedata,notalreadyinspectedneighbors. HalfKellylive0; venuepositioncap212.7475,fundcap187.22,normalrisk25.5297 are ceilings nottargets. Funding349.01 doesnotchangeodds. NoFUNDline: monthlytrendfitsQuantmandate. Monitor230resolved,23402UTCarmed;229paper/185CPIretained;196testedcollector4x30minaccepted,actualrunpending;15/85retained. Sources2352–63daily,2368/2371–73monthly,2329–30fundamentals,2343/2346–47/2376; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf ; https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Start state: account equity850.99, Convex cash178.71, no positions, queued orders or closed trades. Goal: an affordable dated-event long call/put with defensible asymmetric payoff. Binding constraint is validated payoff and whole-contract price, not operator profit need. Premises: 1 MLKN referenceP17.5 $28, N8 coverage12.5%; closest pricedP20$71 fails51.0594cap. Three stock-proxy holdouts allnegative; no positive calibratedKelly. 2 HITI1/9 close coverage and hurdle exceedsmedian by4.271120pp(call)/3.099245pp(put); hindsightlow4/9doesnotauthorizehold-through. 3 HAINK1 .37 maxgross2.702703x, below4xoptionprice neededfornet3Rfullpremiumrisk; missing8eventstudy meansuntested. 4 ZUMZalreadyreported; .90precloseput=$90 failscap, .36oldprice notexecutableentry. 5 GRALaffordableP40.35 requires48.8783%fall, N0samekindvalidatedsample; cheapestpricedcall80dollarsbeyondcap. SRRKmin55>cap; N0. 6 EPMC2.5 .95Aug26cost95;C5 .03Aug24needs30.989583%, N0. ACB/SNDLaffordablelegs lackverifiedfutureprimarydate, N0. Each preliminaryrejection isnotclaimedfailedempiricaltest. Conclusion: allocation0 and cash178.71 forfailedeligibility/payoff. Strongcounterargument: unseenfat-tailwinnercouldpayforseries; an honestroughestimatewouldsufficeonlyaftermandategate, andnonequalifies. Normalpremium<=3%25.5297, highconviction<=5%42.5495, absolute6%51.0594, max3positions; three5%tickets lose15%, below18%. MLKN28=3.2903% andno fractionalcontractquarterprobe. No inventedstopsororders; fullpremiumislossbudget. Hypotheticalnet3RtargetMLKN1.12 requiresintrinsicstock16.38, notdefendedliveforecast. Defaultpre-eventexit MLKNSep21, HITI/HAINSep11RTH; Oct16 expiriesoutlastdates>=week. CurrentMLKNhurdleexceedsmedian6.465662pp, so noholdexception. Sources primarydates23053–61/23066–73, option_contracts, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Monitors231resolved,220/221retained,242/243MLKNand24402UTCadded,GRAL/SRRKreviewadded. Job19222UTCactualENDverified; midnightreceiptpending, notassumedfailed. Testednewjob199240min72runs collectsMLKN/ZUMZstockandoptions throughSep23; livecompletionmustbeaudited. No outside-mandate operation withindependentedgefound; noFUNDproposal.

Numberedpremises:1 ledger23023zeroopen/pending/closing, no positions requiring R/horizon or exitreset; twooperatorliquidationwins cannot calibratelosses.2 Newfundamentals2337/physical2338/chain2340 identifyLPG potential captureandcosts.3 Audited2349costedlongonlytrain+48.98%,holdout+47.45%N15,stress+34.76%,positive across10/20/40; traininghalfKelly9.0%equity, strongcounterargumenttocash.4 Technical2365current54.41<priorhigh55.20 so frozenentryfalse; cannot queue a limitbuy to anticipate a close-basedsignal. 15min/+2R trailing,rawdividendstops andprospective evidenceunvalidated, meanCIcrosszero.5 ExistingOESX1321holdout-31.814%N4,FTK1895-63.6175%N10; no newcashproof repairs rules. Conclusion noorders/noexitchanges; retainfundcash278.67. Valid conditionaldecision underfrozenrules, not claimnoedgeexists. Startcash;goal asymmetric net payoff;bindingcurrentconstraint falseLPGentryandexecutionmapping. Hardaccount850.99,positioncap212.7475,normalrisk25.5297 upperlimits. QuartertraininghalfKellyprobe19.15<whole-share54.41; no roundingup without justified sizing. Current hypothesis belongsinsupply, no FUNDproposal. PrimaryURLs in2337-38 and price https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Four02UTCmonitors237-240plusfutureOrion241; preserveexistingfuturemonitors; collectorrenewaltestedbeforechange. No money-need adjustment; expectedmonthlyshortfall349.01 excluded frompayoffs.

Startstate49.14Catalystcash,noopen/pending/closing. Goal documentedearnings/FDA runupwithpre-eventexit anddefensible>=3R. Bindingconstraint validatednetexpectancy andgap-awareimplementation, notcapitalrecovery. 1 Re-readcostedvectorbtbacktest1928(EPM):training-6.5511%,holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,wins66.667%,N6,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%; CLI1940-51.8445%N109 diagnosticnotedge. ExistingSFIX1087training-36.4031%N20/holdout+45.5628%N10,stressCIcross0; no re-runs orretuning withoutnewvalidityreason. 2 New2333range modelnegativeaftercosts; cannot rescuefailedtraining orjustifyinventedtarget. PreserveoriginalEPM1.5Rpaper. 3 AZOSep22BMOnewconfirmeddate,2881.47share>49.14book,atmost.01705fractionwithoutcosts; fractionalRTHexitpossiblebutnoeventtest or3Rtargetyet, rejectproposalnotinstrument. 4 FDAdateonly/earlyoutcome risk persists; alreadyreportedearningsnotnewrunups; CPRTbodyaccessgap. Conclusionnoorders/exitmoves;cashchosenbecause reviewedcandidates lackvalidatedasymmetricpayoff. Validity: unmetentryconditions implyrejection; soundnesslimitedtoreviewedsources, notproofwholemarketnoedge. CountercaseEPMnewroyaltycashandAZOsetupcouldrally; requireindependentprospectiveevidence,notselectedholdout. HalfKellyapproved0; no misuseof.1276riskfractionorprevious3.91capitalfraction. Monthly349.01excluded. Monitors232/233resolved,235/236armed02UTC;fiveexistingcollectorspreserved,no duplicatejob. Gaps:CPRTfullresults/agreement/publiccall,ORCL/ADBEcallincrementals,LOVEoldrefundbridge,SRRKreplay,originalEPMvolume/exdate,AZOcostedhistoricaldates. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&analysisKind=backtest ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://investors.autozone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/autozone-release-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2026-earnings-september ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000900075.json .

Start state: Catalyst49.14cash, no holdings/queued orders. Goal: documented earnings/FDA run-up with exit before event and defensible>=3R payoff. Binding constraint: validated executable expectancy, not permission to risk capital. 1 Original EPM1928 training−6.551%,N6 holdout CI[-1.779,3.065]% fails; finished day +.989R is not a completed independent event outcome. Dividend.12 afterclose adds news, not payout coverage. 2 Tonight's earnings have already occurred; ORCL/ADBE/ZUMZ results do not recreate run-up entries; CPRT deal lacks exact tender/close dates and validated odds. 3 TLX/SRRK early-decision/full-pipeline risk unresolved. Conclusion no orders, retain49.14cash. Validity: failed entry prerequisites imply rejection; soundness limited to reviewed candidates, not universal absence of opportunities. Strong countercase affordable EPM and new cash-generating businesses can rally; require prospective evidence without refitting or moving paper targets. CORRECTION supersedes Kelly labels2322/2324 and priorjournal: p4/6,W.02643209564,L.03262590862 yields loss-budget halfKelly.1276117927 but invested-capital halfKelly .5*(p/L−q/W)=3.9113636407. Simulation actually used fixed12.761% capital allocation; values valid only for that scenario, not true halfKelly sizing. Approved allocation0 regardless; cash/fund/gap caps bind any future translation. Accountnormalrisk25.5297/convex42.5495,positioncap212.7475,fund49.14; monthly349.01shortfall excluded. Resolved213/214, armed232/233midnight, preserved next-day/168paperexit and five jobs. Sources: runway:query_research?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml ; https://investor.oracle.com/files/content_files/1q27-pressrelease-September_FINAL.pdf ; https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf .

Start Quant187.22cash/account850.99, ledger0open/pending/closing. Goal repeatablepositive netreturns; bindingconstraint independentexecutableexpectancy. Premises:1.Gap savedN2151 -26.21%,halfKelly0.2.AVAVnowpositive frozenEAR3.274346pp activatespaperSep11open withADR8.759085; N9CIcross0 and1.5Rpaper/current3R live mismatch remain.3.TXNMresponseunknown/FTKfullPDFunchanged/countryall19eligible0. Conclusion noopen/close/cancel/adjust; cashchosenbecauseavailable documentedrules do notsupportasymmetricpositiveexpectancy. Validity followsmandate, soundness conditionalonsavedhistories/costs andboundedaccess. Strongestcounterargument missingAVAVdrift; observationdoesnot establishodds. Independentlyvalidatedcoststressed live>=3Rexit wouldchangeallocation, fundinggap349.01 doesnot. Spreadproviders benefitfromforcedentry; costsreducecapital, reducedcapitalshrinksopportunitycapacity, pressurecaninduceworsesizing. Opportunitycostunquantified. Resolved161/211; new229Sep11postopen and230midnight;185CPIpreserved. Testedcollector195threehourlyruns accepted, actualremoteexecution notyetverified;15/85retained. No newbacktest orMonteCarlo probabilitiesclaimed. Sources2312–14/22964–67; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf .

Edge reference: frozen HITI N9 issuer-dated earnings daily responses, median absolute5.494505%; at S2.56 Oct16K2.5 C.31 requires+9.765625%,P.16 requires-8.593750%,each1/9=11.111%<40%; no >=3x expected-payoff mispricing documented. HAIN/EPM/ZUMZ have N0 validated comparable-event samples in this review, meaning untested, not0% wins. Start850.99equity,178.71Convexcash,0positions/queuedorders/trades verified query_trades. Goalqualifyingdatedeventlongoption; bindingconstraintsRTHclosed andpayoffnotvalidated. Normalpremium3%=25.5297;highconviction5%=42.5495;mandateabsolute6%=51.0594;max3lots. Fullpremiumrisk requires3Rnetprofit at4xentryprice; no invented stop can changegaploss. HAIN.37premium37=4.3479%equity needs highconvictionyetmaximum payout2.7027x. NearK.5unpriced. EPMnearestC2.5stale95>51.0594;C5.03 needs30.989583%upfrom3.84;P2.5.25 needs41.40625%down;N0notvalidated. HITI noholdexception: premiumhurdlesabovemedian4.2711/3.0992pp. Prioranalysis2305 costedvectorbt6train/3holdout selectedT5holdout-2.6317%,DD5.364%,win66.67%; nochangedstrategytojustifyrerun. Prior2306intrinsic-onlysimulationhalfKelly0 isstressscenario,notfairvalue. No calibrated positiveKelly estimate now; allocation0 derivesfailedgate,notuniversalproofnegativeoptionEV. Cashchosenforfailedshapedpayoffandclosedoptionsession. NextopenSep11 13:30UTC; hypotheticalHAIN/HITIpre-eventexitSep11RTH,EPM Sep14RTH; Oct16expiryoutlastsallby>=week. Review primary Sep14HAINBMO/HITIAMC andSep15EPMAMC sources22973–75. Existingcollector192verified20UTCEND,next22UTC; monitors220/221preserved. NewmidnightreviewwillmeasureZUMZresponsewithoutretrospectivefit andfreshHAINpricesonlyifchanged. No fundsoutside mandate identified.

Start fund235.86cash/account850.99, noopenpendingclosing in query_trades. Goal repeatablepositive netprofit; bindingconstraint independentexecutableedge. Premises:1. Frozen2183–85 daily/hourly reject,22952 halfKellyclamps0. 2. Fresh22963 quotes hurdlesBTC.539/ETH.530/SOL.603% assuming25bp/side and topaskdepth76.7/82.3/95.1USD. 3. New22953funding/supply and22963chain evidence supply no validatedalternative. Conclusion noorders and noexitmoves; keep235.86cash. Validity: noqualifyingrecordedrule means noauthorizedsetup undermandate. Soundness counterexample independentnewrule mayprofit, not proofallcrypto lacksasymmetry. 212.7475positioncap/235.86fundcap/25.5297normalrisk/42.5495convexrisk are ceilings not allocations. Monthly349.01shortfall excluded; no inventedtarget orstop. Firstordercashavoidsnegativeexpectedfees,secondorderforegoespossibleupside,thirdorderpreservesfuture deployment. Monitor212resolved,223midnightarmed; preserveotherdatedmonitors. Cancelledexpired190;191done. Testedlocal collectorsEND;193quotes15min12runs/194fundinghourly3runs scheduled cutoff00:01, remotedeliveryunverified. Daily14/25retained. Actualquote gap30.0187min precludes claiming15minfillverification. Correction: monitor212outcome says22952–54; actual relevantIDs22952,22953,22963. No newbacktest duringtradingrun. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .

Numbered premises1 obs22962 noopen/pending/closing,only2operatorliquidationwins, no loss/slippage calibration. 2 frozenFTK1895costedholdout-63.6175%,DD67.1654%,N10,win30%,expected-7.6294%,halfKelly0; CLI1939already recorded. 3 AVAV1814CLI74trade diagnostic+72.9481% notholdout;1815costed20/10train-24.4721%,holdout+50.033%,DD52.0352%,N6win33.33%,CI1818[-13.556,44.997]%, fifteen-minute executionunvalidated. 4 BWEN749-41.57%N12,GD999-7.44%N7; refinergreenexitN87-2.3194%;FRO456N41CIcross0,WCC/HUBBN9CIcross0. Historicaldata https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 5 freshprimary checks22954-62/GDtax XML do not repair these rules. Conclusion retain278.67cash, noorders/exitchanges. Valid conditional rejection of existing rules, not proof all bottleneck trades lack edge; bullishAVAVholdout strongestcounterargument but tinyselectedsample/trainfailure/executiongap remain. No fresh price/target invented for ineligible setup; no rerun or relabelledbacktest. Normal3%account risk25.5297 upperlimit, not allocationtarget. Funding349.01shortfall excluded. Existing job173 covers off-run; refresh five reviewed supplymonitors00UTC. Reuse prior technical/backtest/simulation corpus; no new validation claimed.

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: start equity850.99 and convexcash178.71; zero holdings/queuedorders/convexmonitors verified using journal,query_trades,list_monitors. Mandate longoptions only, <=3positions, premium<=6%equity; use tighter3%normal or5%highconviction full-loss sizing and halfKelly. HITI fails measured edge; other candidates are PRELIMINARY rejections with N0 event study, not claims of0% observed coverage. HAIN S.6416: Oct16C1 .10 Aug24 needs+71.4464%; P1 .33 Sep9 below currentintrinsic.3584, an asynchronous mismatch, not executable mispricing; nearestK.5 unpriced. EPM S3.825: C2.5 .95 costs95>51.0594; C5 .03 needs+31.5033%; P2.5 .25 needs-41.1765%, all stale9–17days. ZUMZ S16.575: P15 .36 needs-11.6742%; nearP17.5 1.26 costs126>cap; C25 .25 needs+52.3379%; Sep10AMC means session-before window already passed, no validatedhold exception. Conclusions: research allocation0 and cash178.71 because no screened contract has certified asymmetric payoff, not because certainty is required. Premises would change with fresh synchronized prices and >=8 comparableevents satisfying40% or documented>=3xpremium expectedpayoff aftercosts. No trades, exits or social messages. Source dates: https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full (Sep14BMO), https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 (Sep15AMC), https://ir.zumiez.com/node/15801 (Sep10AMC), https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ (Sep14AMC). Prices option_contracts and delayedSIPbars through19:20. Intrinsic-only 4xpremium targets would require HITIstock3.74(call,+46.38%) or1.78(put,-30.33%); neither supported by N9 observed closes. No invented stops/targets placed to bypass rejection.

Start49.14fundcash,0holdings/queuedorders;goaldated-eventrunupswithpre-eventexit;bindingconstraintvalidatednetpayoffnotcapitalpermission.1 EPM1928all12traincellsnegative,preferred-6.551%,N6holdoutCIcross0;1940CLI-51.8445%notOOS.2 Unfinished19:18SIPpaper+.854R addsnooutcome;3.89686paper1.5Rcannotbechangedintoarithmetic4.06372live3Rwish.3 LOVEalreadyreported,H1afterinvesting-23.633m/refundbridgeunknown;TLX/SRRKdatecertaintydoesnotremoveearlydecision/fullpipelinegaps. Conclusionnoorders,approvedhalfKellyallocation0versusrawselectedsample.1276117927. StrongcountercaseEPMaffordableandacquisitionmix/tapemaycreateupside,butnodefensible3Rtarget/odds inrecord. Validityfollowsprerequisites; soundnessboundedtoexistingreviewedsetups,notclaimallmarketopportunitiesnegative. NoquantificationofcurrentEVoruniversal0/3winprobability. Monthly349.01shortfall excluded. Normalrisk25.5297/convex42.5495/positioncap212.7475;fund49.14capitalcapdoesnotestablishedge.208/209resolved,213/214armed21UTC,168Sep14paperexitretained.5activejobsmaintained;noEPMcollector atknowncap. No holdings/exits to review. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Numberedpremises1 obs22927 ledger0open/pending/closing, fund278.67/account850.99/positioncap212.7475; noholdingreviewactionsneeded.2 FrozenFTK1895costedholdout-63.6175%,DD67.1654%,N10,p30%,expectation-7.6294%,halfKelly0; priorCLI1939alreadycompleted.3 AVAV1814CLIdiagnostic74trades+72.9481% notholdout;1815costed20/10train-24.4721%,holdout+50.033%,DD52.0352%,N6,p33.33%,avgwin60.1045/loss11.6583;1818CI[-13.556,44.997]%andunvalidated15minexits preclude calibratedsizing.4 BWEN749-41.57%N12/GD999-7.44%N7;refinerN87greenexit-2.3194%;FRO456N41CIcross0/WCC-HUBBN9CIcross0. Historicalsource https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; no newbacktest claimed or retuning.5 Newprimaryobs22919–26donotrepairtheserules. Conclusion noorders/limits/exits/trails; allocate0 ratherthaninvent3Rtarget. Validityconditionalonpositiveedge; soundnesslimitedsmallselectedsamples andmissingcash/replay. StrongbullAVAVpositiveholdout acknowledgedbuttrainingfailure/executiongapremain. No freshquote neededforzeroeligibleorder. Normalriskbudget3%equity25.5297 andconvex5%42.5495 areupperlimits, notrequiredspend; gapriskcanexceedstop. Monthly349.01shortfallnotinput. Reusepriorstatistical/technical/backtest/simulationcorpus, no syntheticfreshvalidation.

Startcrypto235.86cash/account850.99; query_trades soleclosedBTC10 and noopenpendingclosing. Goalrepeatablepositive netprofit; bindingconstraint independent executableedge. Premises:1. Frozen2183–85 all36hourlyholdoutslose;22912 halfKellyclamps0. 2. Fresh19:42quotes22914 hurdlesBTC.531/ETH.534/SOL.616% assuming25bp/side, topaskdepth76.9/82.2/95.6USD below212.7475cap. 3. Primaryfunding/chain/supply context gives no validatedalternative. Conclusion noorders/exitadjustments; retain235.86cash. Validity failedrequirededge implieszero; soundness counterexample independentnewrule canprofit, missedupside notproof. Caps212.7475position/235.86fund/25.5297normal3%risk/42.5495convex5%risk are ceilings, not allocation. Monthly349.01shortfall excluded; no inventedstop/target/horizon. Cashfirstorder avoidsnegativeexpectedfees/exposure,secondorder forfeitspossibleupside,thirdorder preservesfuture deployment. Current>=3R/+2Ratmostquarter policy requires newindependentvalidation. Monitor202resolved;212next21UTC; preserve181/104/152/16/37/35. Jobs187/188pastcutoffcancelled,190quotes15min6runs191funding60min2runs locallytestednumericEND, remoteexecutionunverified; cutoff21:01, daily14/25retained. Oldactualreceiptgap30.00675min means schedule isnotproven15minfills. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks . No newbacktest in this tradingrun; actedonrecordedresearch.

Start: Quant $187.22 cash, account $850.99; fresh ledger zero open/pending/closing. Goal: repeatable positive net returns. Binding constraint: independently validated executable expectancy. Premises: (1) Saved gap holdout loses26.21%, mean-.1108804% per trade; half-Kelly0. (2) AVAV closing input not yet observable; N9 uncertainty crosses0 and paper1.5R target does not validate actual3R exit. (3) TXNM responses unverified, FTK full deck unchanged, country momentum eligible0. Conclusion: no open/close/cancel/adjust; cash chosen for measured failure of entry gates. Validity follows the mandate; soundness conditional on saved history and costs, not a new backtest. Strongest counterargument is missed AVAV or merger upside; possibility does not establish payoff odds. Positive independent cost-stressed holdout with venue exits would change sizing; the $349.01 funding gap will not. Forced entry benefits spread providers: first costs reduce capital, then less capital reduces future capacity, then funding pressure can induce worse sizing. Opportunity cost remains unquantified. No simulation or new exit odds claimed. Resolved203; successor21UTC plus preserved161/185. Job189 still one scheduled20UTC run; no duplicate collector needed before next21UTC manager review. Sources analyses2284–86, observations22897–22900; https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 .

Start: Catalyst has $49.14 cash, no open/pending/closing lots; account equity $850.99 supplied in context. Goal: profitable dated-event run-ups with exit before first event news. Binding constraint: defensible net payoff and independently validated entry, not capital permission. Premise 1: original EPM backtest1928 loses6.551% training, N6 mean CI spanszero; unfinished18:10 paper gain+.584R adds no outcome. Premise2: current new-order mandate requires >=3R; oldpaper1.5R must stay frozen and arithmetic4.06372 is not a validated target. RawhalfKelly12.7612% fromselectedholdout is unapproved. Premise3: LOVE has already reported, with negative H1 cash after investing; TLX and SRRK dates expose early binary risk without validated FDA-event odds. Conclusion: no orders, no exits to manage, approvedsize0. Strongest countercase affordableEPM plus improvingtape can profit; affordability and genericmomentum do not defend3R target. Validity follows failed prerequisites; soundness limited to reviewed setups, not all market opportunities. Existing20armedmonitors include208/209at19:40 and168paperexitSep14; none due. Preserve5jobs, no new collector at known cap. Currentrisk3%/5% supersedes stale1%notes for newtrades; no risk needed. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701758/000162828026061220/love-20260802.htm ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

1. Live ledgerobs22878 noopen/pending/closing, only2operatorliquidationwins; cannot estimate empiricalloss. Fund278.67/account850.99/positioncap212.7475. 2. Reuse frozen AVAV1814CLI diagnostic74trades+72.9481% notholdout;1815 vectorbtcosted20/10 train-24.4721%,holdout+50.033%,DD52.0352%,N6,p33.33%,avgwin60.1045/loss11.6583; known1818CI[-13.556,44.997]% and unvalidated15minexits prevent assigning tradeodds. No repeated/relabelledbacktest. 3. FrozenFTK1895/2238/2266 holdout-63.6175%,DD67.1654%,N10,p30%,avgwin19.6007341/loss19.2995217%; Pythonobs22893 expectancy-7.62944496%,rawhalfKelly-.1946214,clipped0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Other priorrejections2266 unchanged. 4. Neworiginalchecks do not remove constraints; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21396/html revenue-recognition schedule notcash. Conclusion retain278.67cash; no orders, exits or fabricated3Rtarget. PositiveAVAVholdout is strongest countercase; method mismatch and selected tiny sample remain unsolved. No currentquote needed forzeroeligibleentry; do not use historicalIEXasquote. Cashchosen for absent validated asymmetricnetpayoff, notfear/monthly349.01gap. No new strategy/simulation/backtest claimed.

Start187.22fundcash/850.99account,0open/pending/closing. Goalrepeatablepositive netreturns; bindingconstraint independentlyvalidated executableedge. Premises:1.SavedgapN2151 loses26.21%/mean-.1108804%,halfKelly0.2.AVAVclosinginput unavailable, N9CIcross0,paper1.5Rtarget notcurrent3Rtrade.3.TXNMactualresponsesunknown/FTKfullPDFunchanged/countryrankeligible0. Conclusionnoopen/close/cancel/adjust; cash187.22 retainedforstatededgefailure. Userauthorizesownorders; noapprovalneededandoldproposals-onlynotes superseded. Newrulemining/MonteCarlo notperformed: no newclaimedholdoutorexitodds. Validityentrygatesfail=>cash; soundnessconditionalonsavedhistory/costs. StrongestcounterargumentmissedAVAVrally/mergerupside; opportunitycostunquantified, doesn'trepairnegativeexpectancy. Forcedentry benefitsliquidityprovidersandspendscapital; fundinggap349.01notamodelinput. NoQuantmonitordue; preserve20319:40,16121UTC,185Sep11CPI; job189active,85/15retained. No duplicatejob neededbefore19:40. Sourceanalyses2269/2270 andfundamentalthisrun; obs22873–76/22885. URLs https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf .