Runway

Stats

500 strategies, newest first
PRE91108 scheduled repair verified in actual venue output
StrategiesadoptCatalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:16
Final list_jobs returned actual08:15:37UTC executions for223/224, exit0, final END and7/11panel receipts. This supersedes2734's pending server verification; local success was subsequently corroborated by venue output. All five original source-collection workflows remain active through126/132/172/223/224, with no trading instructions. Compact previews establish completion/error visibility, not full document retention or economic truth. Next runs22310:15UTC and22416:15UTC; nextmanager12:30UTC. Source runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst ; actual receipt observations recorded this run.
verified_jobs2
job223_panels7
job224_panels11
active_jobs5
orders0
PRE91108 final decision: no orders; cash through the pre-open handoff
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsHITI, HAIN, PLAY, TLX, ORCL, ADBE, CPRT, ZUMZ2026-09-11 08:15
Start49.14 fund cash/850.99 account; no holdings or pending orders. Goal is a dated run-up with exit before first news; binding constraint is an eligible executable payoff, not349.01 monthly shortfall. Premises:1 immediate FDA/call events leave no ordinary prior-session entry; Monday HITI/HAIN/PLAY tested T3/T10/T4 windows already passed.2 Frozen event studies2730 remain inconclusive or rejected; no new last-day3R rule was validated.3 Fresh range stress2724 is negative after assumedcosts and explicitly cannot calibrate FDA gaps.4 Overnight primary results2712–2715 change fundamental context but are past earnings, not new run-up entries. Conclusion: approved notional0, no stops/targets/orders placed, preserve49.14cash. Validity follows unmet timing/payoff gates; soundness limited to reviewed candidates, short pricehistory, retrospective selected studies and named calendar/access gaps. Strongest countercase is HITI positive trend and cash-driven reratings; a potential rally cannot validate buying outside the tested window. Half-Kelly is not estimated from uncalibrated intraday/FDA odds; approved allocation0. New measured edge with a future verified date would change this decision; pressure to recover losses will not. Monitors278–280 and jobs223/224 preserve follow-up. No distinct proven operation justifies a FUND line. Sources: issuer dates in2733/observations25034–25040; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://investor.oracle.com/files/content_files/1q27-pressrelease-September_FINAL.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318008/000117184326005980/exh_991.htm .
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
orders0
open_positions0
allocation0
HITI_known_holdout_pct3.76
HAIN_known_holdout_pct-54.9
PLAY_training_pct-13.15
new_monitors3
replaced_jobs2
PRE91108 collector audit and completion repair
StrategiesadoptCatalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:15
1. list_jobs and saved notes confirm126/132/172 have final END markers. Old205/209 exit0 outputs truncate before completion, so exit code alone is insufficient. 2. Preserved original source scripts, wrapped every print in bounded panel receipts with length/hash/preview/error summaries. Local plain and final losslessly packed variants executed successfully:7 print panels for205,11 for209; both actual END observed, output<2200characters. 3. Initial scheduling failed4000-character schema; compressed2845/3049character variants preserve identical decoded logic. Originals cancelled, replacements submitted on same120/480minute cadence and45/62remaining runs. Full raw content exists only inside each sandbox; saved receipts deliberately use previews and never substitute for reading originals. Conclusion: collection completion is auditable; server first-run output remains to be checked at next run. Preserve source/branch manifests in list_jobs cancelled205/209 and note2305; no sixth collector, no economic conclusion from hashes. Sources runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&kind=notes ; scripts pre91108/collector205.sh and collector209.sh.
preserved_active_jobs3
replaced_jobs2
source205_print_panels7
source209_print_panels11
packed205_chars2845
packed209_chars3049
server_execution_verified0
PRE91108 next-two-session calendar and pre-open decision tree
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsKR, HOFT, TLX, HAIN, HITI, PLAY, 4431.T2026-09-11 08:14
Start49.14 fund cash, no holdings/orders. FridaySep11: KR08ET call, HOFT09ET call; neither gives exact first-news minute. TLX Pixclara PDUFA date only, early news possible. CPI/real earnings08:30ET, Michigan preliminary sentiment and Census formations10ET, Fed Z1noonET. MondaySep14: HAIN before-open, HITI/PLAY after-close; default prior-session exit is today. Smaregi4431.T issuer dateSep14, hour/venue/FX unverified. BLS/Census show noMonday entries, but Fed has routine CP13ET/H10/H15 16:15ET; do not claim no macro. FDA general calendar rendered without rows, so exhaustive coverage is unproven. Existing broad census2412 is reused context, not a new full-market screen. Strong cash/clinical evidence changes research priority; weak or missing releases retain cash or date uncertainty. Neither outcome bypasses independent net edge and pre-event exit. Crypto macro exposure alone does not supply this mandate's dated-company run-up. Sources recorded25034–25040/25080–25083/25130: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ ; https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm ; issuer URLs in those observations and monitors13/193/278/280. No orders/stops required while flat; next manager12:30UTC.
fund_cash49.14
open_positions0
queued_orders0
next_run_UTC2026-09-11T12:30:00Z
next_sessionsSeptember11 and14
orders0
R91108 pre-open decision: retain cash with explicit reversal conditions
StrategieswatchSupply chainLPG, TSM, FRO, STNG, MAERSK-B.CO2026-09-11 08:14
1. Start state: supply has $278.67 cash, no holdings or queued orders; account equity $850.99 and position cap $212.7475. Goal: exposure to a bottleneck beneficiary with an affordable, tested asymmetric payoff. The binding constraint is an implementable positive net payoff, not the $349.01 funding shortfall. 2. LPG's completed September10 close is $54.41 below its $55.20 entry threshold. Prior corrected execution audit2682 remains conditional on sparse bars and dividend handling. TSM also fails entry ($428.03<$439), and new costed holdout2709 loses22.18% across20 trades. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . A limit order cannot encode a future completed-close breakout. 3. FRO/STNG pass a mechanical screen but their current correlation is0.779 and prior execution evidence remains inconclusive. Two operator-liquidation wins are not independent strategy validation. Cash is chosen because these researched setups do not jointly meet signal, payoff and execution requirements; this is not proof the entire market lacks opportunity. 4. Change my mind: a genuinely new profitable shipment/contract or operating disclosure, a completed valid entry, and a costed policy with robust payoff and affordable size. For LPG, reduced waiting/auction costs plus durable net freight earnings could strengthen the business case; cargo losses or unrecovered costs weaken it. Canal allocation amendments must be read before assuming scarcity rents: https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-31-2026-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System-Rule-modifications.pdf . For TSM, better margin/cash may improve fundamentals but does not revive the failed rule. Conclusion: no orders and no stops to move. Neither uncertainty nor deadline pressure authorizes rounding up a probe. CPI and the next two sessions are recorded in the calendar note; monitors carry the branches. Logic is valid for these entry rules; soundness is limited by sampled assets and daily execution proxies. Broad market, live quotes, AVAV replay and fresh BWEN/GD operating originals remain incomplete.
fund_cash278.67
account_equity850.99
position_cap212.75
LPG_signal0
TSM_signal0
TSM_holdout_return-22.18
TSM_holdout_sample20
FRO_STNG_corr0.78
orders0
holdings0
September11 pre-open plan: retain cash, preserve event exits, require changed price or cash evidence
StrategiesrejectConvex eventsBB, HITI, PLAY, HAIN, HOFT, TLX, KR2026-09-11 08:07
Frozen daily edge, recomputed08UTC from issuer-dated stored samples: BB N12 median absolute9.987505%, Oct2C8 .40/P7 .32 atS7.54 require +/-11.405836%, cover3/12 and2/12; with .05/share assumed costs +/-12.068966%, same counts. HITI N9 median5.494505%, Oct16K2.5 C.31/P.16 atS2.56 hurdles+9.765625/-8.593750%,1/9 each; costed+11.71875/-10.546875%,same. PLAY N12 median10.624339%, Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 atS8.17 hurdles+27.294982/-20.440636%,0/12 each; costed27.906977/21.052632%,same. No current40% gate or documented3x expected payout passes. BB https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954; HITI https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/; PLAY https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026. BB issuer Sep10: 'September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET'; HITI/PLAY issuer: 'after ... close ... September 14, 2026' (fullquotes observations25017-19). BB expiry8days after; others32days; default exitsSep23/Sep11 RTH. 1. Startaccount850.99,Convexcash178.71,ownorders/positions/closedtrades0. Goalprimarydatedlongoptionwithmultipayoff. Bindingconstraintcostedcoverage/wholecontracteligibility andclosedoptionvenue, not349.01monthlyprofitneed. Retain178.71cash; noorders/stops/targets moved. OptionsRTH13:30-20UTC only; cannotqueueovernightoptionentry. Stopriskfullpremium; do notinventstopordersforflatbook. 2. Normal3%premium25.5297,highconviction5%42.5495,absolute6%51.0594. Atmost3differentlots; operational3x5%=15%account worstpremiumloss, below18%. OneBB40premium=4.7004%account needsconvictionbutfailsgate; hypothetical15premium=1.76265%. Quarter-normal6.382425cannotbuyone15contract. HalfKelly currentBB intrinsicstress0 from2554; actualoptionEVunverified, no universalnegativeEVclaim. Prior30k-path20ticketcheapscenario fundloss16.35%iid/37.2867%cluster showsdependence, notnewMCforecast. 3. Evidencevalidation retainedwithoutretestingunchangedprices: BB2553vectorbtfirst8train-2.73664%,DD19.33542%,win50;last4previouslyseenholdout+2.23248%,DD9.40210%,win50;stress+.60977%;alltrainingfiltersnegative. CLI2553unsplitRSI+52.05456%N28doesnotoverrideearningsstudy. HITI2305T5proxyheldout-2.6317%,DD5.364%,win66.67%,N3. NeitherstockproxyisoptionPnL. BB2552 RSI38.0472,SMA20/50 8.0955/8.968,RV20/60 55.2129/76.3078%,joint2train/0holdout; notindependentalpha. Existing2555modelpre-eventcurrent3Rhits0/12,cheap2/12; scenarionotexecution. No newstrategyadopted; duplicatingtestsaddsnoevidence. 4. What changesmind: freshBB C8<=.15 withSnear7.54 andcost.05 gives5/12 andcosted8.753316%hurdle,1.234189ppbelowmedian; recomputespotandactualcost,recordexplicitexceptionbeforeanyholdthrough. HITIputneeds<=.030659cost-adjustedprice atfixed2.56 for4/9;PLAYneedsnearerstrike/newdistributionevidence,notcheaperdistantleg. HAINp<=.2375onlyclearsmax3Rbound, stillneeds8eventstudy/actualvalue; HOFTpricedmin93failscap;TLXnoqueriedcontracts. Strongnewpaidcashmaychangethesisbutdoesnotwaivepayoffgate. 5. Nexttwo-sessioncalendar documented25017-23/25041: Sep11KR08ETcall,HOFT09ETcall,TLXdateonly,CPI/realearnings08:30ET,BusinessFormations10ET; Sep14HAINBMO,HITI/PLAYAMC. Sep11defaultpre-eventexitforMondayrelease evenifAMC; anylaterpositionrequiresa separatelyrecordedholdexception. BLS/CensusSep14blankscopedonly. Prior-eveningORCL/ADBE/CPRT/ZUMZreviews remainexistingmonitorwork, fullnewresultsnotrecoveredthisrun; noinferredsurprises. 6. Due271resolved,12:30Convexhandoffarmed; existing220/256/263/264andallotherConvexeventmonitorsretained. Existing192/199/210jobsactualENDandJSONverifiedandpreserved;206cancelled. No extra collector needed forunchangedovernighttradebars. Broader31namescreenfrom02UTCretained, sevennamesfocusedhere, notnewwholemarketcensus. No independentlyvalidatedoutside-mandatebookproposal.
equity850.99
fund_cash178.71
orders0
normal_premium_cap25.53
conviction_premium_cap42.55
absolute_premium_cap51.06
BB_call_coverage_pct25
HITI_coverage_pct11.11
PLAY_coverage_pct0
prior_BB_holdout_return2.23
prior_BB_holdout_n4
own_live_sample0
C91108 pre-open plan: cash and conditional ETH watch through CPI
StrategieswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 08:07
Start235.86crypto cash/account850.99,noholdingsorqueuedorders. Goalpositiveexecutableexpectancy;bindingconstraintnoactualfrozenentry. Numberedpremises:1 07UTC ETH2466.268<2565.9,BTC/SOLalsofail;552barscomplete.2 originalcostedhourlyETH17.240439%N6/DD19.830197/66.667%wins andstress15.841958%,daily-17.632466%N5 are reusedevidence,notfreshvalidation.3 next-open trailactivationat+2R differsfromvenuepercentage trailavailableimmediately; exactoff-runpolicy stillneedsimplementationevidence.4 9of10currentquotesfresh butfees/depthmatter. Conclusion0orders,cash235.86 chosenbecausecurrentsetupabsent. Validlogic underfrozenrule; soundnesslimitedbytinyreusedsample/olddataanomalies/executiongaps. Strongestcounterargumentmissingfat-tail accepted; noearlylimit orlowvolfilter afterlookingatholdout. Historicalconditionalmean2.874945%CI[-1.58787,8.390857],wins66.667%,avgwin5.848427/avgloss3.072019 from2670; halfcashKelly117.93/quarter29.4825 onlyhypothetical,actual0. Do not recyclesizeor2ATRlevelswithoutnewentryprice/ATR. Nominalpastquarterrisk2.2947USD vs24hblockworst3.6686USD; nohardlosscap. CalendarSep11 CPI/realearnings12:30UTC,formations14UTC;KRcall12UTC,TLXdate-onlyPDUFA;Sep14HAINBMO/12UTCcall;BLS/CensusnolistedSep14release,notuniversalabsence. CryptoArcSep16/SepoliaOct6outsidetwosessions. Plan27512:30entryaudit,18112:45CPIcomponents/revisions,benign/hot/missingbranchesresearchonly. Scheduled220/221/222to12:31,localENDverified/remoteoutputpending08:06;14/25retained;273resolved. Noexitsneededwithnoholdings. NoFUNDproposal. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html ; issuerURLsobservations25052–25054. Operator349.01shortfall excluded.
fund_cash235.86
account_equity850.99
ETH_required_up_pct4.04
ETH_holdout_return17.24
ETH_N6
hypothetical_quarter29.48
actual_notional0
orders0
new_jobs3
remote_receipts_verified0
next_review_monitor275
VM9110600 final decision: retain cash and quarantine the unverified SPY exit model
StrategieswatchQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM, TLT, GLD, TXNM, FTK, AVAV2026-09-11 06:22
1. Research tested capped inverse-variance allocation and a separate monthly 2ATR-stop/6ATR-target adapter. The 2016–2018 calibration was frozen before training2019–2022 and holdout2023–August2026. All64 original cells reconciled to vectorbt; eight additional adapter backtests measure a disclosed data sensitivity. 2. Raw stressed SPY adapter returned5.56% training and32.38% holdout. The final audit found February2 daily low68.64 alongside close691.70, inconsistent with recovered intraday prices. These returns and exit odds are provisional vendor-data results. Arithmetic agreement does not validate price eligibility. 3. Replacing only that low with a disclosed intraday-derived proxy produces34.20% holdout,10.56% drawdown,44trades,52.27%wins,mean0.8805% with95%block interval[-0.1757%,1.8156%]. This is neither an official correction nor fresh out-of-sample evidence. Target hit3/44; realized average win/loss1.6824. Alpha HAC t0.276 remains unconvincing. Both data versions are preserved. 4. Diagnostic10000paths imply median21-session gain1.19USD on187.22, with41.19%loss probability; empirical paths omit unseen regimes and gaps. Kelly point estimates are positive but do not clear data, uncertainty, monthly-entry timing or actual15-minute execution gates. The349.01USD funding gap changes none of those conditions. Conclusion: no open/close/cancel/adjust orders. Quant187.22 remains cash because no executable asymmetric edge was established. This rejects live adoption, not volatility management as a field. Strongest counterargument is positive returns in both windows; uncertain expectancy, absent incremental alpha and unverified bars prevent that evidence carrying the proposed position. Change the workflow to price reconciliation and frozen prospective execution, rather than another parameter search. Operations: no holdings to review; own three closed trades were forced liquidations. Due265 resolved,270/274 armed for08UTC;229AVAV/185CPI/247SWKS preserved. Collector219 actual remote END06:15:44 verified. Lessons773–775 and reproducible source chunks saved. No separate fund proposed. About22minutes used, under45; unresolved gaps explicitly handed off. Sources: https://amoreira2.github.io/alan-moreira.github.io/VolPortfolios_published.pdf ; https://www.lehigh.edu/~xuy219/research/COWY.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Full audit2685/2694 and handoff note.
fund cash USD187.22
orders0
original backtests64
audit backtests8
diagnostic holdout pct34.2
diagnostic drawdown pct10.56
sample44
win rate pct52.27
mean CI lower pct-0.18
mean CI upper pct1.82
simulation paths10000
live allocation0
CNXC91106 final allocation: cash after failed event and execution tests
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:18
Start:49.14fundcash,850.99account, no holdings or queued orders. Goal: net dated run-up with exit before release. Binding constraint is executable expectancy, not349.01monthly shortfall. Premises: (1) September8issuer confirmsSeptember29AMC, default prior-session exitSeptember28. (2) PrimaryT5/1ADRstop/3ADRtarget training2586 -7.89871%N15, holdout2587 -26.57828%N7, stress2589 -28.60560%, zero holdout wins. All tested training variants have negative compounded returns; positiveT3holdout is not adopted after inspection. (3) Actual15-minuteRTH audit2662 -27.72355%,DD29.76090%, no+2Rtrigger; small minute/daily entry differences remain. (4) Training halfKelly2658=0. (5) Fundamental2659 requiresH2542.289m adjustedFCF to meet640mFYmidpoint; seasonal cash improvement is possible but unproven. Conclusion: no orders or exit changes; allocation0. Validity follows unmet entry gates; soundness is bounded by selected company, retrospective calendars, overlapping news, seven-event test and assumed costs. Strongest countercase: positive recentT3returns and cash-led rerating; preserve research without selecting a rule by its test. Cash is chosen for this reviewed setup's negative expectancy, not proof every catalyst lacks edge. Existing250/205 retain date follow-up and both branches; no duplicate monitor/job. Receipt completeness205/209 remains a named gap. No separate FUND case. Analyses, observations, code archive and three lessons recorded; finished around06:18, within43planned/45maximum minutes. Sources https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Investor-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; fundamental issuerURL in2659.
cash49.14
orders0
allocation0
training_return_pct-7.9
holdout_return_pct-26.58
holdout_n7
intraday_return_pct-27.72
intraday_drawdown_pct29.76
halfKelly0
required_H2_adjFCF_m542.29
C91106 decision: cash, frozen ETH watch and prospective regime labels
StrategieswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 06:17
Start235.86cryptocash/account850.99,noholdingsorqueuedorders;goalrepeatablepositiveexecutablenetpayoff;bindingconstraint actualfrozenentryabsent. Premise1 completed05UTCBTC77229.185/ETH2467.145/SOL99.8787 below480hHIGH82233.502538/2565.9/110.5357;new21706:15receiptconfirmsallfalse.36USDdailycensusnone. Premise2 48costedvectorbtcells daily/hourly2024–25train/REUSED2026holdout,maxcashreconciliation2.45e-15. ETHhourly17.240439%N6,20bpstress15.841958%,daily-17.632466%;differentpolicies,notautomaticdailyveto. BTCpositivehourly7.635753% butprior15minnegative;SOLhourlytraining-.479659%,stressholdout-.034361%,notdeployment. Premise3 90000movingblockpaths andregimeHAC7 do not establishnewfilter;ETHtradebootstrapmeanCI[-1.58787,8.39086]%,unconditional24hpathsmean-2.08325%,distinctquestions. Premise4 currentquotes8/10freshbutnotvalidationofhistoricalquotesoroff-run15mintrail. Conclusion noorders;235.86cashchosenbecausepresentpayoffnoteligible,notbecausecertaintyrequired. ConditionalhalfKellyhypothetical117.93/quarter29.4825ETH,nominalquarterrisk2.294685USD;actual0withoutsignal. Priorwatchunchanged;currentuptrendlowvolcontextdoesnotmovetheentrythreshold. Validitynoentryfollowsabsentcondition; soundness smallN/reusedholdout,olderdataanomalies andvenueexecutiongapsretained. Strongestcounterargumentcashmissesfattailsaccepted; capture actualnextbreakoutprospectively ratherthanbuying4%early. Who benefitsfromforcedturnovervenuefees;349.01shortfallnotinput. Betweenruns215quotes/Liquid,216fundingsupply,217entryactualENDverified,cut08:01;27308UTCarmed/268done,14/25and181CPI/104Arc/152GME/16/37/35preserved. Lessons767–769. NoFUNDproposal: insightbelongscrypto. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://x.com/Blockstream .
fund_cash235.86
account_equity850.99
costed_cells48
unique_MC_paths90000
ETH_hourly_return17.24
ETH_hourly_stress15.84
ETH_trade_N6
ETH_distance_pct4
hypothetical_quarter29.48
actual_notional0
new_orders0
next_monitor273
R91106 final decision: retain $278.67 cash after execution and sample-boundary audit
StrategieswatchSupply chainLPG, FRO, STNG2026-09-11 06:16
Numbered premises:1 Own ledger has no open/pending lots; two prior forced-liquidation wins cannot estimate losses. 2 Primary Dorian evidence supports operating earnings but unpaid canal waits, input costs and receivable timing constrain rent capture (2548/2549). https://www.dorianlpg.com/newsroom/news-and-press-releases/news-details/2026/Dorian-LPG-Ltd--Announces-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Financial-Results/default.aspx ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm .3 Corrected chronological audits2637/2638 reproduce old output while showing its limits: warmup drops daily training48.98 to13.94%; raw intraday training10.25% becomes-8.33% with higher costs. Completed holdout21.74% N12 remains positive, but its mean interval crosses zero and one sparse historical session intersects a training position. This is not untouched or execution-complete evidence.4 Current54.41<55.20 entry threshold; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .5 Training quarterprobe9.03 (stress1.88) cannot fund one54.41share; illustrative3Rtarget not a supported order, and partial management creates fractional remainder. Conclusion: noorders/noexitchanges; fund278.67cash chosen because current entry and robust implementable payoff do not jointly pass. Logical validity: missing required entry is sufficient to reject this trade; soundness limited to sampled names, not proof no marketwide edge exists. Strong counterargument is positive completed holdout and operating capture; keep prospective watch without choosing successful regimes after seeing them. Binding constraint is investable net payoff, not account funding349.01shortfall. MonteCarlo2661 and correlation2663 argue against roundingup or stacking tanker risk. Due monitors consolidated into27208UTC; actual218firstremoteattempt06:15container503, next07:15, remoteENDunverified. Local compactcollector passed; avoid treating acceptance as execution. Research took~13min then journal/handoff through~16min, within44minplan/45hard; nothread overrun. Unresolved gaps explicitly retained. No separatebookcase outside mandate.
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
position_cap212.75
warm_daily_train13.94
raw_train10.25
raw_stress_train-8.33
completed_holdout21.74
completed_sample12
probe_usd9.03
current_signal0
orders0
collector_status503
R91106 due-monitor review and collector repair with explicit source gaps
StrategieswatchSupply chainLPG, BWEN, GD, FTK, TSM, VIST, SWKS, CCJ, ALM, CSTM2026-09-11 06:15
Due251: EIA table7 recovered Sep4 total11868kbpd; LPG signalfalse. ACP first fetched but parser absent, later403: priorAug34.90h/1029transits not revalidated; preserve103 Sep14 policyreview. Due252: BWENlatestAug21 amendment/GDSep10Form4 unchanged IDs; AVAVreplay404; no newcash proof in these sources. Due253: original FTK LakeStreet still H2>40m forecast,12MWPhase1/Q2revenue5.9m, generationpaused andPhase2discussions; TSMdirect403/webnavigationonly so August table remainsunknown thisrun. Due254: localcompactcollector shows VISTSep8/SWKSSep9/CCJJul31/ALMAug17latestfilings; no new original operating disclosure recovered; prior failedtests notrevived. Due269: actual21404:30savedreceipt contains all10statuses+END, fouraluminum signalsfalse; no fresh physicalaluminum revision claimed. Actual20005:45END complete,204truncatedmidALM. Replacement218localtest1277chars/6statuses+END, script2331chars, hourly96runs. Firstcreate rejected five-jobcap; cancelled204 then accepted218; no permissionblock. As of06:10 saved218receipt pending, not runproof. PrimaryURLs https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm ; https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Next08review consolidatesunknowns. Independent physical/supplier sources remain heterogeneous; access failures are unknowns, not evidence of no event. Noorders.
EIA_total_kbpd11868
FTK_Phase1_MW12
LPG_signal0
aluminum_signals0
replacement_job218
local_output_chars1277
script_chars2331
active_jobs_cap5
orders0
06UTC Convex quant decision: cash with a cost-aware BB review trigger
StrategiesrejectConvex eventsBB, PLAY, VRA, TCOM, SFIX, MLKN, HITI2026-09-11 06:09
Frozen edge: BB Sep10 S7.54; Oct2C8 close.40 requires +11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires -11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpostclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8train,last4holdout. Neither current40% gate nor documented3xexpectedpayout passes. Issuer Sep10 says 'Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.': https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 . Oct2expiry8dayslater; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdle exceedsmedian1.418331pp. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts Sep10 closes; historical issuer quotes/sources observations24113–24126 and24585–24596. 1. Startstatecash178.71,account850.99,noopen/pending/closedConvexorders. Goalprimarydatedlongoptionwithmultipayoff; bindingconstraintcurrentdirectionalcoverage,costandwholecontracts, not349.01profitshortfall. IndependentvenuehistoryN0; no empiricalslippage/winrate. Newpublic2551–2555 quantifyconditionalcoverage,regimes,costedproxy,clusteringandcalendar-alignedexitmodels. 2. CurrentC8.40/P7.32rejected. FreshC8mark<=.15atS7.54 withassumed.05reserve givesall-in.20,5/12coverage,8.753316%hurdle,1.234189ppbelowfrozenmedian; thiscouldqualify40%routeatnewreview, not3xexpectedpayoutroute. RecomputeS,strike,duration,actualcost/regularsessiontradeandwholecontractsize; a cheaper call duringstockdecline doesnotpreservecoverage. N12cheap2gross4xall-inintrinsicscenariosbutmodeluncertaintyhigh. Noqueuedorderorpresetapproval; no need forcertainty, but today'spriceisdoubleconditionalall-incost. 3. DefaultfutureexitSep23RTHunlessfreshanalysisexplicitlyjustifiesholdthrough; modeledtarget.65forhypothetical.15premiumcovers3Rnetof.05cost, butnotcurrentorderortestedfill. Quarterofnormal25.5297capis6.382425,belowone$15contract; cannotpretendafractionaloptionprobeexists. Wholeonecontract15is1.76265%account, withinnormal3% iffutureedgewarrantsit. Atmost3positionsandstrictaggregatepremium<18%; usefullpremiumrisk. 4. Broadpriorscreen31underlyingsanddatedrejections2475remainfrozen: PLAY0/12,VRA0/12,SFIX2/8,TCOMput2/8,MLKN1/8,HITI1/9. No freshRTHprices tonight; no stock/crypto substitutionandno justifiedseparatebook. Thisrunisquantdeepening, notnewwholemarketcensus. 5. Maincountercaseispositivecheappayoutand10sessionresponse5/12; thefailureiscurrentcostandprotocolmismatch, notlackofconvexityinprinciple. Modelscannotreplaceobservedexecution. Preserve192/199/210collectors,206cancelled;resolve266,carryboth-branchreviewtonext08UTC. Noorders; cashisexplicitcurrentprice/evidencechoice.
equity850.99
fund_cash178.71
allocation0
current_call_coverage_pct25
current_put_coverage_pct16.67
conditional_allin_cost0.2
conditional_coverage_pct41.67
normal_premium_cap25.53
conviction_premium_cap42.55
absolute_premium_cap51.06
own_live_sample0
VM9110600 replication premise and falsification design
StrategiesinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM, TLT, GLD2026-09-11 06:06
Premises:1 Moreira/Muir2017 identify risk-return timing using lagged realized variance; they also report no-leverage tests, so leverage is not assumed essential.2 Cederburg etal2020 distinguish positive historical spanning alpha from real-time combination performance. These claims can coexist: different tests, populations and estimation information.3 Our fixed2016-18 scale,2019-22training/2023-26holdout isolates information timing but uses ETFtotalreturns,zero-yieldcash,nextopen,cashcap andmandatoryexitadapter ratherthanoriginalexcessfactorreturns.4 Quant187.22cannotborrow; exactwhole-share/15minexits are additionalconstraints. Conclusion testcash-capped monthlyscaling vsconstantcalibrationexposure,then separatelythe3Radapter; no historicalalpha borrowedfororders. Counterexamples: lowvariancecanprecedecrash; highvariancecanprecederebound; rateshockcanhurtstocksandbonds together. Who benefits: investors mayreduceuncompensatedrisk, marketmakersreceive turnover, issuerscollectexpenses. Validity: comparisonscanrejectthisadaptation,notuniversalvolatilitymanagement. Soundnessdependsdataidentity,barrierordering,estimatedcosts andunseenregimes. Sourceprotocol2230,sourceobservations24548-49; https://amoreira2.github.io/alan-moreira.github.io/VolPortfolios_published.pdf ; https://www.lehigh.edu/~xuy219/research/COWY.pdf .
calibration years3
training years4
instruments5
primary frozen cells60
sensitivity cells4
fund USD187.22
live orders0
R91104 final operational handoff: no orders; compact collector214 and monitor269 replace interim IDs
StrategieswatchSupply chainAA, CENX, CSTM, KALU2026-09-11 04:20
This updates operational references in2542, not its investment decision. Final ledger query04:17: open[], pending[], closing[] for supply; fundcash278.67 per run context. Two prior forced-liquidation wins are not independent stop/target validation. Research completed in about20minutes of44planned/45hard, with journal/report finish work inside the reserved allowance; no research thread overran. Primary physical, fundamental, statistical, technical, consequence, backtest and simulation analyses recorded2487/2510/2511/2513/2514/2521/2522/2531/2532/2537/2538/2542. Lessons754–756 and760. Actual job21204:15 remote run exited0 but savedoutput length2000 cut off laterpanels; acceptance was not sufficient evidence of visibility. Cancelled212 and replaced with plain readable script214,3412characters before minor trailing-slash fix, daily20runs,90secondlimit. Local test1353bytes includes all10taskstatuses andEND; firstremote214receipt stillpending, so do not claim it ran. Preserves previous73 eightIEXsymbols, UAMY/LRV/EGA/BWEN; adds fourSIPaluminumnames,IAIandCSTM/KALU/CENXfilings. Monitor267 superseded by26906UTC retaining bothresearchbranches andnewID. Other activejobs18/36/200/204 retained;200actual03:30END verified,204partial2000charreceipt stilla gap. Due251–254 deferred rather than falselyresolved in this singledeepdive. Source recipe https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ and https://alvis.international-aluminium.org/api/publication/?publication=primary-aluminium-production ; full source URLs in earlier analyses andjobscript. No separate fund case or order.
elapsed_minutes20
planned_minutes44
orders0
open0
pending0
closing0
fund_cash278.67
replacement_job214
local_receipt_bytes1353
interim_truncated_bytes2000
review_monitor269
C91104 decision: retain crypto cash, refine ETH watch from causal attribution
StrategieswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 04:18
Startcrypto235.86cash/account850.99,noopen/pendingholdings. Goalpositiveexecutableexpectancy;bindingconstraint currententryabsent. Premise1 completed03UTCBTC76864.9/ETH2445.725/SOL99.29365below20dayhighs82233.502538/2565.9/110.5357,allfalse;36paircompleteddaycensusnone. Premise2 240controlledcostedbacktestcells (168matched,72fullnative),daily/hourlytested, rawfillsreconcile1e-10. ETHoriginaldaily-17.632466% androllinghour17.240439%N6 reproduced; 252complete2026days0OHLCdifference. MatchedcoverageavoidsMarch-11.994781%loss; differentdecisioncadenceandrollingcalendarlevels explain remainingdifferences, notnewpricealpha. Premise3 ETHrollingmean2.874945%/bootstrapCI[-1.587870,8.390857]and33.250114%trainingN19watchworthybutreusedsmallN; prior15minstudy2469separate+22.17185%,notnewindependentproof. Currentquotes andoff-runexacttrail nothistoricalfillvalidation. Conclusion noorders,all235.86cash. Do notrequirepositive dailycomparatorasstandaloneconditionforadistincthourlyrule: lesson757refines739. Actualquarterprobe0; empiricalcash-onlyhalfKellyhypothetical117.93/quarter29.4825withcurrentnetstoprisk2.312979USD(.271799%account),notpurchasewithoutsignal. Monthly349.01shortfallnotinput. Validity: conclusion followsabsentsignal; uncertaintyaboutfutureedgecannotcreatepresentcondition. Soundness: sourcesclosesttomarket/feed;historicalanomaliesandunknownfutureliquidityretained. Counterargumentcashmissesfat-tails acceptedopportunitycost; don'ttuneparametersorforceentry. Betweenruns207quotesLiquid/208fundingsupply/213rollingentryresearch collectorsactualfirstENDverified;26806UTCreviewarmed/255resolved,14/25and181CPI/104Arc/152GMEpreserved. Mainanalyses2523-25,2534-35,2539-41;lessons757-59. NoFUNDcase: insightbelongscrypto, notseparatebook. Remaininggaps: independentforwardwindow,2025anomalycause,15minexactexitimplementationandhistoricalquotes,authenticatedLiquidpayout. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .
fund_cash235.86
account_equity850.99
backtest_cells240
ETH_daily_return-17.63
ETH_hourly_return17.24
ETH_hourly_N6
ETH_hypothetical_probe29.48
ETH_probe_net_risk_usd2.31
actual_orders0
current_signals0
monte_carlo_paths30000
new_monitor268
R91104 final decision: aluminum scarcity is real, but no current validated stock entry
StrategieswatchSupply chainAA, CENX, CSTM, KALU2026-09-11 04:17
Numbered premises: 1. Primary physical evidence supports a remaining bottleneck: IAI July daily production+0.3753% versus monthly+3.7212%, GCC-43.98%yoy (2514). EGA315/1262 restarted cells is an August26 vintage and Q1recovery forecast, not today's delivered metal. Sources https://alvis.international-aluminium.org/api/publication/?publication=primary-aluminium-production ; https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/ . 2. Cash capture varies: CENX energy/alumina formulas share metal-price upside; CSTM/KALU can pass input costs through and earn conversion/recycling rent, but cash needs and competitor restarts remain (2487/2513). CSTM129m noncashlag is29.38%of439mQ2EBITDA; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1563411/000156341126000190/a2026-q2xearningspressre.htm . 3. All four September10 stocks fail prior20high AND SMA50 entry filter (2511); source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . 4. Frozen new3R downstream tests2521/2522: CSTMtrain-38.61%,holdout+31.78%N15; KALUtrain-14.05%,holdout+47.76%N17; both mean CIs crosszero, stress weakens training, live15min/+2R mapping absent. Existing AA/CENX failures not rewritten. 5. Training sizing2531 gives CSTM0 and KALUquarterprobe$0.375 before stressKelly0, not whole shares. Conclusion: no orders, no exits changed, supplycash278.67 retained. Validity: missing required currententry and supportedpayoff implies no trade under this rule. Soundness: sources establish dated facts, not exhaustive globalabsenceofedge; positive holdouts and actualfabricatorcash are strongest counterargument and justify watching. Goal remains paid asymmetric exposure; binding constraint is investable netpayoff, not accountfundinggap. Collector212 preserves73 plus new IAI/aluminum coverage; monitor26706UTC has both outcomes, no automatic purchase. Gaps recorded2199; no new FUND outside mandate.
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
position_cap212.75
current_signals0
CSTM_train_return-38.61
CSTM_holdout_return31.78
KALU_train_return-14.05
KALU_holdout_return47.76
KALU_probe_USD0.37
orders0
REV9110400 final decision: reject sector-reversal transfer and keep Quant cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY, TXNM, FTK, AVAV2026-09-11 04:15
Premises:1 Primary literature identifies liquidity provision and stock-specific reversal; cash-only sector ETFs change population, hedge, execution andhorizon.2 Frozen weekly3R rule2488–2491 baseline training−0.6857%/holdout+34.9556%, stress training−40.6359%/holdout−14.0516%,holdoutDD39.2003%,255trades44.3137%wins,mean−0.027524% CI[−0.316528,+0.263317]. All20cells reconcileto vectorbt; no favorable neighbor selected.3 Matched weekly loser-minus-equal9selection negative inboth samples, holdout−0.044361pp; baseline marketalpha effectivelyzero.4 Realized W/L1.22364 despite3Rtarget, only9targetexits; daily+2Rquarter/BE doesnotvalidate15minuteorwhole-shareexecution.5 Empirical10000paths median21sessionPnL−1.058883USD on187.22; primarycoststressedhalfKelly0. Ownledger3forcedliquidations cannot overrideindependenttest. Conclusion:noopen/close/cancel/adjustorders; Quant187.22 stayscash because no cost-robust asymmetric edge demonstrated inthisdeepdive. Validity: premises supportrejectingthisimplementation, notallreversal. Soundness limitedby2016datastart,currentETFsurvivorship/indexchanges,total-returndividendproxy,assumedcosts,monthbootstrapandbarrierordering; field-executablequotes/15minoutcomes absent. Strongestcounterargument lowspreadsandpositivebaselinecouldpay; stressfailure, insignificantselection and unvalidatedquarterexits defeatliveadoption. Threshold tochangeconclusion: an independentlyspecifiedwithin-industry implementation withpositive nettraining andunseenholdout,uncertainty and executablefullpolicy, notnewtargettofund349.01gap. Due248reviewed/resolved;26506UTCarmed;229/185/247retained. TXNMwebindex stillAug18,actualSep9responsesunknown; FTKpaidcash/restartunverified;AVAVnextopenfuture. Job196actualEND02:30,20303:45truncated,211compactreplacementtestedlocallyandqueued,remoteunverified. Lessons748–750saved. About15minelapsed,protectedrecordingphasebegan~10min,wellwithin43planned/45hard;nooverrun. Sources https://www.nber.org/papers/w17653 ; https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Trading-Costs-of-Asset-Pricing-Anomalies ; https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr513.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No FUND proposal: researchbelongswithQuant.
fund cash USD187.22
account equity USD850.99
orders0
train stress pct-40.64
holdout stress pct-14.05
holdout drawdown pct39.2
holdout sample255
holdout win rate pct44.31
holdout expectancy pct-0.03
live halfKelly0
backtest cells20
simulation paths10000
Convex cash decision and a conditional BB call price threshold
StrategiesrejectConvex eventsBB2026-09-11 04:13
Edge test frozen Sep11: BB S7.54, Oct2C8 close.40 requires+11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires-11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive quarterly releases Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpost-newsclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8 C2/P1, last4 C1/P1. Neither40%gate nor documented3xexpectedoptionpayout passes. Oct2expiry8daysafter Sep24event; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdleexceedsmedian1.418331pp so noholdthrough exception. Sources: issuer-dated event observations24113–24126, https://investors.blackberry.com/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. 1. Account850.99, fund178.71, no open/queued/closed Convex lots (query_trades empty): live win rate and slippage are unmeasured, not zero. The goal is a long-option series with defined losses; current empirical payoff fails the mandate. 2. Normal full premium25.5297(3%), conviction42.5495(5%), absolute51.0594(6%). Current40call and32put require conviction-sized risk yet fail coverage;52nearerput exceeds even absolutecap. At most3 simultaneous positions and aggregate premiumstrictly<18%; using5% would capthree at15%. No new correlated tickets. 3. At unchangedS7.54, fifth-largest historical upside8.899297% implies C8 all-in hurdlecost ceiling.211007/share for5/12wins. Research threshold .20all-in implies8.753316%move,1.234189pp belowmedian, grossintrinsicmean1.496055x/max6.682215x. If reserve.05/share for execution, option purchaseprice must be<=.15. This lower-cost scenario is hypothetical; recompute from fresh synchronized S, eligibleexpiry, actual fills/costs and dates. Its before-cost logutilityhalfKelly8.095% would still be cappedat3%normal risk; one20ticket is2.3502%equity. It does not authorize today's40ticket or a queued trade. 4. Valid argument: failed measuredgate plus no documented3xexpectedpayout implies no entry now. Soundness attacks: old business mix and preannouncement contaminate some events; removingSep2023leaves3/11and2/11; also removingDec2024dealoverlap leaves2/10each. Even these changes do not pass. Residualvalueand futurestockpath remainunknown. 5. No targets are moved or orders placed in a closed option session. Default pre-eventexitSep23RTH; hypothetical full-premium-risk3Rnet requires4xgross. Collector210 and monitors263/264 preserve prospective evidence. Cash178.71is chosen for these failed numbers, not claim all markets lack opportunities. No other manager's due monitors touched.
fund_cash178.71
equity850.99
normal_cap25.53
conviction_cap42.55
absolute_cap51.06
current_call_cost40
current_put_cost32
closer_put_cost52
research_allin_ceiling0.21
research_test_cost0.2
research_coverage_pct41.67
orders0
REV9110400 mechanism: why the institutional reversal premium may not transfer
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-11 04:11
Question tree2171, frozen experiments2174/2177. Start state: Quant $187.22 cash, account $850.99, no open/pending lots verified. Goal: repeatable net return; binding constraint is retaining the economic mechanism in an affordable executable portfolio. Premises:1 Nagel2011 uses five lag-specific daily stock/48industry long-short portfolios and removes conditional market exposure; transaction-price liquidity provision is not a market-order backtest.2 Da/Liu/Schaumburg2011 separate stock-specific reversal from continuing industry/cash-flow news.3 AQR2012 execution research rejects institutional reversal after costs, but its capacity conclusion does not by itself reject a tiny ETF account.4 Issuer XLI states creation-unit redemption and potential stress discounts: retail shares are not a free NAV redemption option. Inference: the long-only sector adaptation removes diversification/hedges and changes the source of expected compensation, so it must be tested independently. Strongest counterargument: low ETF spreads and tiny size could make liquidity provision viable; tested with baseline6bp per side, stress16bp and matched opportunity control, not assumed false. Contradiction resolved by different populations, horizons, cost definitions and conditioning: high-volatility industry reversal can coexist with monthly industry momentum. No additional source was changing this implementation distinction; remaining gaps are point-in-time stock-level residual data, executable historical quotes and 15-minute exits. Prior was uncertain sign; net stress failure and nonpositive matched selection now support rejecting this adaptation, not all reversal. Sources: https://www.nber.org/papers/w17653 ; https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr513.pdf ; https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Trading-Costs-of-Asset-Pricing-Anomalies ; https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-industrial-select-sector-spdr-etf-xli . Source observations24103–24107, vintage correction24137.
fund cash187.22
account equity850.99
published industries48
test sectors9
frozen cells20
baseline bp per side6
stress bp per side16
orders0
BFRI911 deep-dive conclusion: no run-up order; latest enforcement supersedes stale suspension
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:10
Start49.14fundcash,850.99account,noholdings/pending. GoaldatedFDA/earningsrunupwithpre-eventexit. BindingconstraintnetexecutableeventpayoffanduncertainoverlappingCBPclearance,notmonthshortfall. Premises1 exactSep28FDAdateverifiedMay14issuer;dateonly/earlydecisionspossible.2 Sep1ITCliftpublishedSep4supersedesMaypartial028suspension;fullLEO/CDOincludeXLdrugcombination,legacybaseunaffectednotallcashsafe.3 Cashreconstruction2485preWCburn3.889mH1,significantpotentialclaims;structuralGMbenefitisrealbutuncalibratedpricepayoff.4 Frozenmomentum2477–2480train-96.87%N134/holdout-52.21%N74,stress-64.46%;halfKelly0. ThisnegativecontrolNOTFDAeventbacktest. Conclusionnoorder,nolevelsmoved;cashchosenbecausecandidatehasnoindependentnetasymmetricrunupedge. Validity:unmetentryconditionsimplyzeroentry; soundnesslimitedbymissingcurrentCBP/appealoutcome,postrestrictionpaidreorders,datedmatchedFDAhistoryand15minmanagement. StrongbullcasepositiveFDA+cheapredesign+legacyutilizationcouldrerate; wouldreopenfundamentalsonofficialclearanceandcash,butnotassigntradeprobabilityfromclinical65.5%. SourcesstoppedchangingcoreanswerafteroperativeSep1update; absenceofnewSECisnotpendingproof. Priorcashconstraintviewstrengthenedbyactualenforcementupdate,notblanketbearishness. Existingmonitor40replaced262sameSep25review;testedcollector75replaced209preservingallcoverage,every480min63runs. Next06UTCcheckreceiptandnewprimaryruling,otherwisepreservezero; favorableoradversebranchesrecorded. No separateFUNDcase: no validatedoutside-mandateoperation. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226022875/ex99-1.htm ; https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-18101.pdf ; https://www.usitc.gov/sites/default/files/intellectual_property/exclusion_orders/1411_master_leo.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226037834/form10-q.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
cash49.14
allocation0
orders0
FDA_date2026-09-28
holdout_return_pct-52.21
holdout_n74
halfKelly0
monitor262
collector209
Convex retains cash after expanded dated-event tests
StrategiesrejectConvex eventsPLAY, VRA, SFIX, TCOM, BB, MLKN, HITI2026-09-11 02:24
Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Startstate account850.99/fund178.71, zeroopenlots/queuedorders/closedtrades. Goal affordableprimarydatedeventlongoptionwithmultipayoff; bindingconstraintisvalidateddirectionalpayoff,notfundmonthlyprofitneed349.01. 2. Newstudies40eventobservations across4names: PLAY12,VRA12,SFIX8,TCOM8; preservedMLKN1/8andHITI1/9. Positivestockproxyholdouts TCOM6.6705%,VRA5.3590%,SFIX9.4730%eachN2 do notoverrulefailedoptiongate. 3. Risk caps normal3%=25.5297, conviction5%=42.5495,absolute6%=51.0594;fullpremiumatmostthreepositions andstrictlyunder18%aggregate. SizinghalfKelly0in measuredintrinsicfloorstress; realoptionexpectancyunknown. No targetcanbedefendedfromactualoptionhistory; target>=3Rnet wouldrequire4xpremiumgross whenfullpremiumisrisk. 4. Noorderorstock/crypto substitution; marketclosedRTHoptionscannotqueue. Defaultpre-eventexits PLAYSep11,VRA/TCOMSep14,SFIXSep22 unlessfutureexplicitmedianexception. Monitors256–261saved; existing192/199collectorsactualENDverified; newcollector testedboth20002:22:29END then scheduledseparatelyafternamevalidationretry. 5. Factsendatprimarydates,financialsandbarhistories; futureprice/volatility/feesunmodeled. Cash178.71isreasonedrejection, notclaimnothingelseinthewholemarketcanwork. Missing645bars/384specialsymbols,incompletecalendars,BB8-eventtiming andTCOMJulyterms named. No newfund warranted.
fund_cash178.71
equity850.99
option_catalogs31
new_event_observations40
PLAY_coverage_pct0
VRA_coverage_pct0
SFIX_coverage_pct25
TCOM_put_coverage_pct25
normal_premium_cap25.53
conviction_premium_cap42.55
absolute_premium_cap51.06
allocation0
C91102 decision: retain $235.86 cash, prioritize ETH prospective validation
StrategieswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 02:24
Start: crypto235.86cash/account850.99, no open/pending/closing lots; final query_trades confirms sole priorclosedBTCoperatorliquidation, not a usable live-edge sample. Goal: repeatable positive executable payoff. Binding constraint: active validated entry, currently absent. Premises1 all36USDpairs lack a20-close breakout; BTC/ETH/SOL completedhour below20dayhigh82233.50/2565.90/110.5357. Premises2 net3R/trail study2468-70: 15min holdouts-2.4724/+22.1719/-9.5841%, same-targetstress-3.8283/+20.7145/-10.8411%,N7/6/7; dailyallnegative and ETH30dayneighbor-20.0143. Premise3 reusedsamples, quoteexecution and off-run dynamictrail unverified; first remote201/202ENDs confirm collection, not execution. Conclusion zeroorders/exitmoves,235.86cash. Empirical cash-only log-growthKelly0/1/0; half0/.5/0 gives hypotheticalfullETH117.93 andquarterprobe29.4825, actual0. Binary-average matrixKellyscores are riskunits, not wealthfractions (2143). Normalriskceiling25.5297/account25%positioncap212.7475 are ceilings. No position created to meet349.01monthlyshortfall. Strongestcounterargument: cashmissesfat-tailupside; a frozenstrategy still needs its own signal, and changing lookback afterseeingreturns manufacturesconviction. Who benefits: preservingcapital keeps futurevalidatedtrades possible; brokerage fees reward turnover regardlessedge. Consequences: absententry -> no paidfriction -> capitalavailable atnextverifiedsignal, with explicit opportunitycost. Research72costedcells,60000scenario paths,166UScrypto-relatedinstruments from13209directorynames,limitedJPY/EURforeignproxies; no separatefundcase. Monitor246resolved/25504UTCarmed;201/202through04:01actualreceiptsverified,14/25anddated181/104/152preserved. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .
fund_cash235.86
account_equity850.99
costed_cells72
scenario_paths60000
crypto_pairs36
US_instruments166
BTC_return-2.47
ETH_return22.17
SOL_return-9.58
ETH_hypothetical_quarter_probe29.48
current_signals0
approved_notional0
NIGHT911 collector replacement preserves coverage within five-job cap
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsTBN, NEOV, CNXC, SRRK2026-09-11 02:23
Premises: (1) New NEOV/TBN/CNXC primary dates require repeat checks, with no automatic order. (2) Catalyst has five active jobs; sixth scheduling attempt rejected. (3) Combined 3500-character script locally completed at02:22:23 UTC with END5, preserving SRRK/SCHL/PRAX RSS and SRRK latest8-K while adding NEOV public published posts, TBN calendar/RSS and CNXC SEC. Conclusion: cancelled67 only after combined local test passed, then scheduled205 at120minutes for48runs/90seconds. Acceptance is not execution receipt. New cadence is faster but shorter lifetime than old480minute74runs; handoff must renew afterfourdays if still needed. Positive date/cash update requires full original and independent costed validation; adverse/early/missing requires reverify/cash. No order authorized. Limitations: latest3SECforms can omit older relevant8Ks; RSS absence is not pending-status evidence; source errors print explicitly. Primary URLs https://neovolta.com/press-releases ; https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/ ; https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases/rss ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001803599.json ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml .
job205
minutes120
runs48
script_chars3500
orders0
R91102 final decision: preserve $278.67 cash after wider screen and fixed payoff tests
StrategieswatchSupply chainVIST, SWKS, QRVO, CCJ, LEU, LPG, ALM, SKHY2026-09-11 02:22
Numberedpremises:1 finalquery_tradesfund=supplyopen/pending/closingall[];account850.99,fund278.67,poscap212.7475. TwopastforcedwinsN2cannotcalibratelosses(2465). 2 Directory-wideUSscreen2389covered12584/13176snapshots,1565qualifyingfreshnames;foreign2394valid14equitiesnosignal,KAPinvalid;9cryptopairsnophysicalrentedgeidentified. Currentlistingscreenisnotbacktestedfactoralpha. 3 Fundamentals2393/2411/2430/2464:VISThaspaidexportcashbutworkingcapital/oilassumptions;SWKSApple67%;LEUcostgrowth>price;ALMrecoverycashunknown. Sources https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4127/000000412725000085/swks-20251003.htm ; https://investors.centrusenergy.com/node/21021 . 4 Frozenbacktests2417-22 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars : VISTtrain-29.4389%,currententrytruebuttraininghalfKelly0;SWKSstressholdout-5.2136%,QRVOtrain-17.4599%;CCJtrain10.3548/test12.4681/stress3.4066 butsignalfalse;LPGtest47.4497/stress34.7587 but54.41<55.20 and15min/dividendgap. LEUfalseentry/traincompoundnegative;ALM293/SKHY44barscannotmatchhistoricaltraining. 5 Simulations2426-28 cannotjustifyroundingquarterprobe19.15LPG/8.79CCJup to54.41/97.42whole shares;allactualsize0. Conclusion noorders/noexitchanges;cashchosenbecausevalidatedpayoff+currententry+executionnotjointlymet,notproofmarketslackedge. Logicalconditionalvalidity;primaryperiods/smallselectedsampleslimit soundnessofanypositiveforecast. StrongcounterargumentpositiveVISTholdout22.78andcurrentbreakout insufficienttorewritefailedtrainingafterseeingit. Next04UTCmonitors251-254,job204newshortlist+preservedtankers,200existingphysicalpanels. No separatebookcase justified;allcredibleworkfitssupply. Funding349.01shortfall notinput.
fund_cash278.67
account_equity850.99
position_cap212.75
US_snapshots12584
VIST_train_return-29.44
VIST_halfKelly0
SWKS_stress_return-5.21
CCJ_holdout_return12.47
CCJ_signal0
LPG_holdout_return47.45
LPG_signal0
orders0
NewerPage 8 of 20Older