Stats

1. Next sessions Friday Sep18 and Monday Sep21. Fed https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm : Friday G17 industrial production/capacity utilization09:15ET (13:15UTC), Bowman stress testing09:30ET, CP13ET, H8/H15 16:15ET. Monday CP13ET,H10/H15 16:15ET. BLS https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm August state employment Friday10ET; Monday none listed. Census https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html no Sep18/21 scheduled releases. 2. Earnings: no new primary-confirmed Supply-watchlist release in these two sessions found. This is a bounded search, not a whole-market empty calendar. MLKN Aug25 issuer https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast confirms Sep22BMO/08:30ETcall; Monday last prior session. FDX search snippets conflict about dates; SEC latest operating filing Sep14, IR dynamic page lacked details, so no claimed Sep17 result/catalyst. 3. FDA calendar upcoming Galleri Sep23panel, not approval deadline https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/september-23-2026-molecular-and-clinical-genetics-panel-medical-devices-advisory-committee-meeting ; page08UTC lists waivers, no substantive briefing. No complete public PDUFA census established; do not infer no decisions Sep18/21. 4. Own due380 resolved, new38612:30preopen/387G17review13:20/388MondayPanama set. Monitorflags await manager, no unattended orders. No holdings/stops to protect. Newdata direction changes research premise, never automatically stock entry. Otherfund overdue monitors and EEMtrade11 are not Supply's to resolve.

1. ACP Sep4 A33 retains48ft,postponesOct1cut; Sep16A35 permitsconsecutivePanamaxdatesacrossbookingperiods. https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-postpones-neopanamax-draft-adjustment/ ; https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-35-2026-clarification-on-consecutive-booking-dates-limitation-in-the-panamax-locks-across-different-booking-periods.pdf . Firstorder: avoidnewdraftcut andeaseadministrativeaccess,notnewwater/slots. Second: morepredictablevoyages maylowerauction/waitcostsbutalso reduceinefficiency-supportedfreightrates. Third: marginsdependonwhoownscargo,routingoptions andcostpassthrough; LPG10-K sayswaitusuallyunpaid https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm . CounterexamplelongerCapevoyagescanstillraisefleetutilizationandnetTCE. Mondaytentative5hNeooutage doesnotbyitselfestablishscarcityrent. 2. ALM Sep17 take-or-pay https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226043044/ex99-1.htm : firstordercreatesroute toWBHfor1720tminimumtotalWO3 andconditional3mupfront. Secondcustomer-financedrestartcanbypassnewmineleadtimebutmarginfloornotdisclosed. Thirdadditionalrecycledsupplycouldreducecustomershortageandfutureproducerpremium. WBH/Sandvik benefitsupplysecurity,ALMbenefitsonlyaftersuccessfulrestart/acceptedprofitabletonnes. Commodityscarcity isnotone-wayproducerpricepower. No independentvaluationchange since06run. Bindingconstraint measurednetcash/currentexecution,notfearofrisk.

1. May27 FY26 10-K riskfactors/MD&A https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm :99%revenueHelios, noendcharterer>10%withinpool. Pool operational concentration differsfromsinglebuyercreditrisk. Canalwait typicallyunpaid; tollincreases maynotpassintorates. 2. Aug5 issuer https://dorianlpg.com/newsroom/news-and-press-releases/news-details/2026/Dorian-LPG-Ltd--Announces-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Financial-Results/default.aspx JunequarterTCE75926/day,adjustedEPS2.52,EBITDA165.430566m. Gain30.116869m remainsinEBITDA definition; subtracting gives135.313697m sensitivity. EPSadjustmentalreadyexcludesgain, so do not subtracttwice. Julyshipsalescapitalrecyclingnotrecurringincome. 3. AtSep17SIP58.31,onequarterEPSannualizationimplies5.7847x; misleadingifpeakratesfade. 35.7%orderbookismanagement-relayedindustryestimate; newcapacity erodesfuturepricingpower,notimmediateavailablefleet. 4. Validity: realpaidquarterprovesrentcapturepossible,notthatcurrentcanaltighteningincreasesnetcash. Strongcounterargumentton-mile reroutingcanoutweighfees; acceptmechanismbutrequirecurrentnetfixtures/usablevaluation. Currentfund101.99canbuy1share, but frozenLPGbacktest3313holdout-25.6595%,DD40.437%,N10win20%doesnotvalidateentry. No targetmanufacturedfrompeakEPS. Facts endatfilingperiod; futureTCE/multipleunknown.

1. DirectACP Sep10 AugustA34, fullPDF recovered viaNode afterPython403: https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf . Monthlytotal1029,transits33.19/day,arrivals33.1/day; no vessel-level distribution. 2. Python derived water-minus-transit23.63h=67.7077%of34.90h, but this includes all non-transit time, not proven congestion wait. Roundedarrivals-minusdepartures-.09/day (~-2.79over31days) doesnot establish actualqueuechange: cohortboundary,smallvessels/definitions androunding unverified. 3. 175/178Neo bookedslots=98.3146%,204/227auction=89.8678%; Neo excludesauctions so addingpercentagesdoublecounts/changesdenominator. Physical33.19/36-38sustainablecombinedcapacity implies87.34-92.19% utilizationrange; cannotaddindividual-lockmaxima. 4. Prior: constraints can raisefreight; evidence weakens inference ofacceleratingqueue from headlinebookingfill. Counterexample concentratedNeo arrivalwaves canproduceVLGCqueues despitebalancedmonthlytotals. Needdailyclass-specificarrivals,waitdistribution,auctionprices and paidTCE beforecalibratingstockedge. No regression/correlation fromN1monthlyaggregate; no inventedprecision. No order.

Start state: Supply101.99cash, no open or queued positions; account849.92, position cap212.48 but fund cap101.99 binds. Goal: profitable exposure to physical bottleneck rents with defensible asymmetric exits; monthly350.08shortfall excluded from targets/sizes. Numbered premises: 1. Read own notes, observations, analyses, lessons and ledger. Two prior wins were operator-liquidated and cannot calibrate edge. 2. Corrected costed vectorbt3310-21: TEN train-68.779%/holdout+13.382% N8, LPG holdout-25.659% N10; PSIX2026marked-10.246%/closed-15.555% N4 and ALM2026-7.484% N6, both short histories. AA/CENX/MU positive train/holdout experiments but no current breakout. FTK/FRO/STNG fail baseline consistency. This is a selected-price overlay, not a historical bottleneck-event study. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 3. TEN retained fundamental target55.36/stop45.41 at52.81 offersnet.31453R, below3R. ATRtarget62.21 is only hypothetical, not a defended valuation. https://www.tenn.gr/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/tenn091026.pdf . 4. New ALM offtake improves route to market but conditional payment/restart/floor/costs do not establish incremental NAV https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226043044/ex99-1.htm . PSIX tariff cash22.7m is customer-refund liability; normalized cash capture still needs evidence https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054328/psix-20260630.htm . 5. Tail audit3301/3329 explicitly supersedes q5%/-30% as factual hard veto; it remains sensitivity. No order rests on that assumed probability. Empirical Kelly and MC3330-35/3337 are diagnostics; narrow samples, regime drift and untested actual manager policy prevent using resampled odds as precision. Decision: no orders,101.99cash for stated lack of a presently supported asymmetric setup. Validity: premises jointly support withholding these candidates; soundness limited by source vintage, selected holdout, current paid fixtures, executable quote/15min exit gaps and unobserved disasters. No inference that all market opportunities are absent. Strong counterargument2026 tanker regime is different is plausible, but it does not defend a higher TEN target or erase negative prior states. Binding constraint is current payoff/cash capture, not one-share affordability. Next: ALM377/PSIX378 and08UTC379; verify268actualEND2/2 and265receipt, preserve fivejobs. No new FUND: already-covered momentum is not a distinct discovered operation.

1. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; closed pre2024 returns from costed strategy3310-20, not two live wins. NumPy seed918061,20000 paths of20 sequential trades. Portfolio rebalances each trade to12% account (101.99/849.92) or3% quarter-fund probe. Sample actual trade outcomes with replacement; separately REPLACE an outcome with assumed-30% loss atq0/1/5%. No claim that q is measured; empirical ordinary gaps/losses already remain in base. IID trades omit regime persistence and simultaneous holdings, so this is a shape/sizing sensitivity, not ruin forecast. 2. TEN fullfund mean terminal account return-3.93925% withq0;5thpercentile-14.32465%,P95drawdown15.30252%,P(loss>10%)20.74%. q5 raises P95DD19.07636%,mean-7.17269%. Quarterfundq0mean-.99976%,P95DD4.04490%;q5mean-1.84081%,P95DD5.11282%. Negative baseline exists independently of assumed disaster. 3. LPG fullfundq0mean+3.57059%,P05-8.64104%,P95DD11.41406%;q1mean+2.75026%,q5mean-.24270% andP95DD15.38273%. Quarterfundq0mean+.88198%,P95DD2.96819%. Thus arbitrary q5 alone can reverse an otherwise positive empirical mean, but LPG's separate actual2024-25 holdout is negative anyway. 4. Full AA/CENX/MU matrices saved in observations; no favorable simulation overrides their inactive current signal. HalfKelly numerical estimates in3330-35 are capped research diagnostics; preserve 3% normal account-risk rule and gap stress separately from expected value. Conclusion: scale exposure to drawdown shape and retain uncertainty, not assumed odds as permanent cash veto.

1. Sep17 completed SIP/all bars, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Current close/prior20-close-high/SMA50: TEN52.81/52.31/41.4862; FRO50.66/50.32/39.424; STNG87.85/85.73/78.8874; LPG58.31/57.86/47.5036; BWLP26.14/25.84/22.0448; PSIX45.55/43.15/35.784; FTK30.60/28.13/27.2462. These seven pass breakout&SMA50. ALM14.13/19.12/15.2245,AA46.97/51.85/48.346,CENX40.75/47.95/45.3155,MU977.50/1027.77/926.7737 fail. 2. Positive screen is not an independent edge. TEN/FRO/STNG train ATR rules negative; LPG holdout negative; BWLP no long train/negative2024-25; PSIX2026 negative andbelow200day55.521; FTK train/holdout negative. AA/CENX/MU retain positive train/holdout experiments but inactive signals, and AA/CENX2026 negative. ALM new contract does not make its failed signal true. 3. TEN old defended45.41/55.36 at52.81 yieldsnet.314527R under1bpfee15bpslip eachside, old3Rentryceiling47.744473. New volatility-only stop49.67716/target62.20852 in simulation is a different, unvalidated valuation claim; not a reason to raise target or tighten stop to fit. 4. Fund cap101.99 allows oneTEN share, oneLPG, oneSTNG, up to2PSIX or7ALM, but affordability isnotedge. FRO dividends require raw-price/deliverable reconciliation before live stops; adjusted closes notquotes. No fresh snapshots claimed thisrun. Current SIP PSIX45.55 differsIEXcollector45.45 byfeed/sample; use internallyconsistent SIP forresearch. Conclusion no current order; preserve hypotheticallevels separately from committed exits.

1. Model: 20000 paths,60sessions, aligned historical open/previous-close, high/open, low/open,close/open ratios, contiguous5day blocks;10day sensitivity also saved. Seed918061, baseline history pre2024 versus recent252; fees1bp/slip15bp per side. Stops include opening gaps, openingtarget first, intraday ambiguity stop first. Fixed levels asofSep17; no live entry signal conditioning, no15min/profit ratchet. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. pre2024/2ATR6ATR: stop first 67.480%, target first 30.295%, timeout 2.225%, mean net 2.2449%, median -10.9632%, P01 -14.7113%. last252/2ATR6ATR: stop first 60.875%, target first 34.025%, timeout 5.100%, mean net 4.3584%, median -10.9632%, P01 -15.8823%. 3. Half Kelly from numerical max mean log(1+f*r) gridf0..1 thenhalf, using closedtrade distributions: train N42, win33.33%, average win32.929%, average loss10.758%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. holdout N13, win38.46%, average win25.331%, average loss10.286%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. forward2026 N5, win20.00%, average win23.183%, average loss12.663%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.0000, cap-adjusted researchsize$0.00. This is a diagnostic, not approved sizing; small/all-win histories cannot calibrate omitted losses. 4. Recent-window drift and selected survivor bias can create attractive resampled odds without an executable edge. Simulated tail quantiles are not loss bounds. LevelsE-2ATR/E+6ATR are hypothetical geometry and not fundamental valuation; TEN frozenvalue45.41/55.36 remains separate. Decision: do not use favorable bootstrap odds to override failed holdout, absent current signal or undetermined cash capture. A fullfund101.99 exposure is12% account849.92; quarterfund25.4975 is3% account, stockloss can exceedstop on gap.

1. Model: 20000 paths,60sessions, aligned historical open/previous-close, high/open, low/open,close/open ratios, contiguous5day blocks;10day sensitivity also saved. Seed918061, baseline history pre2024 versus recent252; fees1bp/slip15bp per side. Stops include opening gaps, openingtarget first, intraday ambiguity stop first. Fixed levels asofSep17; no live entry signal conditioning, no15min/profit ratchet. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. pre2024/2ATR6ATR: stop first 66.880%, target first 28.675%, timeout 4.445%, mean net 1.5349%, median -9.0627%, P01 -13.0165%. last252/2ATR6ATR: stop first 62.985%, target first 34.075%, timeout 2.940%, mean net 3.2122%, median -9.0627%, P01 -12.2648%. 3. Half Kelly from numerical max mean log(1+f*r) gridf0..1 thenhalf, using closedtrade distributions: train N37, win35.14%, average win25.898%, average loss8.956%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. holdout N11, win36.36%, average win24.131%, average loss8.030%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. forward2026 N3, win33.33%, average win16.426%, average loss9.536%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.0000, cap-adjusted researchsize$0.00. This is a diagnostic, not approved sizing; small/all-win histories cannot calibrate omitted losses. 4. Recent-window drift and selected survivor bias can create attractive resampled odds without an executable edge. Simulated tail quantiles are not loss bounds. LevelsE-2ATR/E+6ATR are hypothetical geometry and not fundamental valuation; TEN frozenvalue45.41/55.36 remains separate. Decision: do not use favorable bootstrap odds to override failed holdout, absent current signal or undetermined cash capture. A fullfund101.99 exposure is12% account849.92; quarterfund25.4975 is3% account, stockloss can exceedstop on gap.

1. Model: 20000 paths,60sessions, aligned historical open/previous-close, high/open, low/open,close/open ratios, contiguous5day blocks;10day sensitivity also saved. Seed918061, baseline history pre2024 versus recent252; fees1bp/slip15bp per side. Stops include opening gaps, openingtarget first, intraday ambiguity stop first. Fixed levels asofSep17; no live entry signal conditioning, no15min/profit ratchet. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. last252/2ATR6ATR: stop first 50.490%, target first 43.405%, timeout 6.105%, mean net 14.6300%, median -18.1134%, P01 -23.2380%. 3. Half Kelly from numerical max mean log(1+f*r) gridf0..1 thenhalf, using closedtrade distributions: holdout N3, win66.67%, average win30.566%, average loss10.059%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. forward2026 N6, win33.33%, average win36.180%, average loss15.903%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.1245, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. This is a diagnostic, not approved sizing; small/all-win histories cannot calibrate omitted losses. 4. Recent-window drift and selected survivor bias can create attractive resampled odds without an executable edge. Simulated tail quantiles are not loss bounds. LevelsE-2ATR/E+6ATR are hypothetical geometry and not fundamental valuation; TEN frozenvalue45.41/55.36 remains separate. Decision: do not use favorable bootstrap odds to override failed holdout, absent current signal or undetermined cash capture. A fullfund101.99 exposure is12% account849.92; quarterfund25.4975 is3% account, stockloss can exceedstop on gap.

1. Model: 20000 paths,60sessions, aligned historical open/previous-close, high/open, low/open,close/open ratios, contiguous5day blocks;10day sensitivity also saved. Seed918061, baseline history pre2024 versus recent252; fees1bp/slip15bp per side. Stops include opening gaps, openingtarget first, intraday ambiguity stop first. Fixed levels asofSep17; no live entry signal conditioning, no15min/profit ratchet. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. last252/2ATR6ATR: stop first 73.045%, target first 26.720%, timeout 0.235%, mean net -0.8900%, median -10.2254%, P01 -34.4840%. 3. Half Kelly from numerical max mean log(1+f*r) gridf0..1 thenhalf, using closedtrade distributions: holdout N4, win100.00%, average win34.836%, average loss0.000%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. forward2026 N4, win25.00%, average win34.790%, average loss14.427%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.0000, cap-adjusted researchsize$0.00. This is a diagnostic, not approved sizing; small/all-win histories cannot calibrate omitted losses. 4. Recent-window drift and selected survivor bias can create attractive resampled odds without an executable edge. Simulated tail quantiles are not loss bounds. LevelsE-2ATR/E+6ATR are hypothetical geometry and not fundamental valuation; TEN frozenvalue45.41/55.36 remains separate. Decision: do not use favorable bootstrap odds to override failed holdout, absent current signal or undetermined cash capture. A fullfund101.99 exposure is12% account849.92; quarterfund25.4975 is3% account, stockloss can exceedstop on gap.

1. Model: 20000 paths,60sessions, aligned historical open/previous-close, high/open, low/open,close/open ratios, contiguous5day blocks;10day sensitivity also saved. Seed918061, baseline history pre2024 versus recent252; fees1bp/slip15bp per side. Stops include opening gaps, openingtarget first, intraday ambiguity stop first. Fixed levels asofSep17; no live entry signal conditioning, no15min/profit ratchet. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. pre2024/2ATR6ATR: stop first 66.770%, target first 31.210%, timeout 2.020%, mean net 1.4969%, median -7.0079%, P01 -9.6989%. last252/2ATR6ATR: stop first 50.780%, target first 46.420%, timeout 2.800%, mean net 5.7770%, median -7.0079%, P01 -8.3937%. 3. Half Kelly from numerical max mean log(1+f*r) gridf0..1 thenhalf, using closedtrade distributions: train N49, win30.61%, average win22.921%, average loss7.997%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.3845, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. holdout N10, win20.00%, average win19.976%, average loss7.913%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.0000, cap-adjusted researchsize$0.00. forward2026 N7, win57.14%, average win21.282%, average loss6.479%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. This is a diagnostic, not approved sizing; small/all-win histories cannot calibrate omitted losses. 4. Recent-window drift and selected survivor bias can create attractive resampled odds without an executable edge. Simulated tail quantiles are not loss bounds. LevelsE-2ATR/E+6ATR are hypothetical geometry and not fundamental valuation; TEN frozenvalue45.41/55.36 remains separate. Decision: do not use favorable bootstrap odds to override failed holdout, absent current signal or undetermined cash capture. A fullfund101.99 exposure is12% account849.92; quarterfund25.4975 is3% account, stockloss can exceedstop on gap.

1. Model: 20000 paths,60sessions, aligned historical open/previous-close, high/open, low/open,close/open ratios, contiguous5day blocks;10day sensitivity also saved. Seed918061, baseline history pre2024 versus recent252; fees1bp/slip15bp per side. Stops include opening gaps, openingtarget first, intraday ambiguity stop first. Fixed levels asofSep17; no live entry signal conditioning, no15min/profit ratchet. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. pre2024/2ATR6ATR: stop first 72.725%, target first 26.645%, timeout 0.630%, mean net 0.0919%, median -6.2328%, P01 -7.8202%. pre2024/frozen_value: stop first 25.070%, target first 74.735%, timeout 0.195%, mean net -0.2460%, median 4.4937%, P01 -14.5717%. last252/2ATR6ATR: stop first 42.310%, target first 54.870%, timeout 2.820%, mean net 7.1037%, median 17.4205%, P01 -6.5804%. last252/frozen_value: stop first 6.900%, target first 92.640%, timeout 0.460%, mean net 3.1583%, median 4.4937%, P01 -14.2872%. 3. Half Kelly from numerical max mean log(1+f*r) gridf0..1 thenhalf, using closedtrade distributions: train N46, win19.57%, average win24.725%, average loss8.099%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.0000, cap-adjusted researchsize$0.00. holdout N8, win37.50%, average win15.583%, average loss5.965%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. forward2026 N5, win80.00%, average win19.207%, average loss8.288%, constrained halfKelly stockweight0.5000, cap-adjusted researchsize$101.99. This is a diagnostic, not approved sizing; small/all-win histories cannot calibrate omitted losses. 4. Recent-window drift and selected survivor bias can create attractive resampled odds without an executable edge. Simulated tail quantiles are not loss bounds. LevelsE-2ATR/E+6ATR are hypothetical geometry and not fundamental valuation; TEN frozenvalue45.41/55.36 remains separate. Decision: do not use favorable bootstrap odds to override failed holdout, absent current signal or undetermined cash capture. A fullfund101.99 exposure is12% account849.92; quarterfund25.4975 is3% account, stockloss can exceedstop on gap.

1. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars SIP/all Jan2016-Sep17. TEN has2691 daily gaps and none <=-30%; worst gap-9.5963% (Apr29 2020), worst pre2024 close return-17.58995%. That does NOT establish zero future disaster risk. Under deliberately simplistic IID Bernoulli, zero/2691 yields one-sided95% daily upper.111262%; converting that bound across60sessions gives6.46126%. A5% probability PER TRADE cannot be compared directly with a daily frequency, and clustered crisis regimes undermine IID. Thus earlier5%/-30% remains a stress case, not calibrated probability, and absence does not refute it. 2. PSIX May12 2026 actual adjusted gap-34.18735%,2025Nov7-29.99754%; short history misses other regimes but confirms meaningful gap risk. LPG worst pre2024 gap-22.27513%. 3. AA feed Nov1 2016 apparent-74.35646% coincides with corporate separation confirmed by https://investors.alcoa.com/resources/investor-faqs/default.aspx ; remove predecessor boundary by starting current AA historyNov1, not discretionary return clipping. Clean worst gap-13.2465%approximately; exact values saved in observation packets. 4. Last252 TEN/FRO correlation.819413,TEN/STNG.708182,TEN/LPG.600194; holdings would share a shipping factor, not independent bets. Conclusion retire uncalibrated tail veto while retaining explicit gap sizing and regime uncertainty. Closed-trade sample2 operator-liquidated wins cannot estimate edge. Hard account risk and fund101.99 cap remain; no forced entry from removing an invalid inference.

Required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TEN,PSIX,AA,CENX,ALM,MU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (actual invocation uses spaced --lookback 20). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Engine source inspection: IEX, same-close signals/entries, fixed brackets, no commissions/slippage, no holdout, and no adverse opening-gap execution. Therefore diagnostic only; independent costed calendar-split vectorbt analyses3310-3321 supersede for inference. These results are a different strategy and feed, so neither disagreement nor high return validates current eligibility. Full metrics:{"symbol":"MU","bars":1003,"returnPct":33.273060525293154,"buyAndHoldPct":1775.4463428681127,"maxDrawdownPct":36.24458031131956,"winRate":41.66666666666667,"avgTradePct":0.47232312281293787}

Required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TEN,PSIX,AA,CENX,ALM,MU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (actual invocation uses spaced --lookback 20). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Engine source inspection: IEX, same-close signals/entries, fixed brackets, no commissions/slippage, no holdout, and no adverse opening-gap execution. Therefore diagnostic only; independent costed calendar-split vectorbt analyses3310-3321 supersede for inference. These results are a different strategy and feed, so neither disagreement nor high return validates current eligibility. Full metrics:{"symbol":"ALM","bars":297,"returnPct":124.51031088911115,"buyAndHoldPct":190.14373716632446,"maxDrawdownPct":18.106251492680077,"winRate":50,"avgTradePct":4.21481208976961}

Required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TEN,PSIX,AA,CENX,ALM,MU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (actual invocation uses spaced --lookback 20). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Engine source inspection: IEX, same-close signals/entries, fixed brackets, no commissions/slippage, no holdout, and no adverse opening-gap execution. Therefore diagnostic only; independent costed calendar-split vectorbt analyses3310-3321 supersede for inference. These results are a different strategy and feed, so neither disagreement nor high return validates current eligibility. Full metrics:{"symbol":"CENX","bars":1003,"returnPct":30.783852368281472,"buyAndHoldPct":433.07189542483655,"maxDrawdownPct":34.92360735923026,"winRate":32.5,"avgTradePct":0.525451745267276}

Required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TEN,PSIX,AA,CENX,ALM,MU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (actual invocation uses spaced --lookback 20). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Engine source inspection: IEX, same-close signals/entries, fixed brackets, no commissions/slippage, no holdout, and no adverse opening-gap execution. Therefore diagnostic only; independent costed calendar-split vectorbt analyses3310-3321 supersede for inference. These results are a different strategy and feed, so neither disagreement nor high return validates current eligibility. Full metrics:{"symbol":"AA","bars":1003,"returnPct":-25.392344990122197,"buyAndHoldPct":5.347533632286994,"maxDrawdownPct":42.471162084949704,"winRate":32.857142857142854,"avgTradePct":-0.34057498169084205}

Required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TEN,PSIX,AA,CENX,ALM,MU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (actual invocation uses spaced --lookback 20). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Engine source inspection: IEX, same-close signals/entries, fixed brackets, no commissions/slippage, no holdout, and no adverse opening-gap execution. Therefore diagnostic only; independent costed calendar-split vectorbt analyses3310-3321 supersede for inference. These results are a different strategy and feed, so neither disagreement nor high return validates current eligibility. Full metrics:{"symbol":"PSIX","bars":432,"returnPct":42.32466690454897,"buyAndHoldPct":51.500000000000014,"maxDrawdownPct":15.0166294688044,"winRate":41.935483870967744,"avgTradePct":1.3974287736690292}

Required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TEN,PSIX,AA,CENX,ALM,MU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (actual invocation uses spaced --lookback 20). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Engine source inspection: IEX, same-close signals/entries, fixed brackets, no commissions/slippage, no holdout, and no adverse opening-gap execution. Therefore diagnostic only; independent costed calendar-split vectorbt analyses3310-3321 supersede for inference. These results are a different strategy and feed, so neither disagreement nor high return validates current eligibility. Full metrics:{"symbol":"TEN","bars":1001,"returnPct":23.779307240557834,"buyAndHoldPct":178.24367088607596,"maxDrawdownPct":19.727161495833574,"winRate":37.333333333333336,"avgTradePct":0.39570689620069754}

1. Daily SIP/all source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . NumPy OLS predicts following-open to21st-following-open20-session return using current breakout20&SMA50, ownSMA200, SPYSMA200 and20-day momentum. Training through2023, no refit for2024-25; horizons crossing boundaries excluded. Bartlett HAC20 errors address overlap approximately, normal CI; eight unadjusted tests, selected survivors, no event causal identification. 2. TEN303/323 breakout days also aboveSMA50=93.808%; FRO97.090%,STNG95.798%,LPG95.165%,AA91.558%,CENX92.453%,FTK89.844%,MU95.498%. These are strongly overlapping filters, not independent corroboration. 3. TEN signal coefficient-.69255pp over20sessions,95%CI[-4.19916,2.81407],p.69869; out-of-sample R2 versus training mean-.080415 (N481). LPG+1.46304pp,CI[-1.58348,4.50956],p.34657,R2-.042958. FTK coefficient-6.70832pp,p.003574 but OOSR2-.054114; do not turn exploratory negative coefficient into an untested short rule. 4. All eight signal coefficient CIs exceptFTK include0; six of eight OOSR2 negative. FRO/STNG modest positiveR2 do not repair negative train bracket returns. PSIX/ALM/BWLP lack long training sample. Sensitivity tests vary filter effect across periods: TEN holdout markedSMA50+13.38%,none-6.58%,own200-4.32%; LPG SMA50-25.66%,own200-.75%. No filter chosen from this holdout. Conclusion no statistically reliable extra independent signal from confluence in this selected universe; retain original hypotheses and collect prospective primary economics.

1. Preregistered note3573, detailed methods3577. Daily SIP/all through Sep17; 2016-2023 train (AA starts Nov1 2016), 2024-25 calendar holdout, 2026 separate known-period diagnostic. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Next-open prior20-close breakout AND SMA50, prior20 arithmetic ATR, E-2ATR/E+6ATR brackets, 60-session max; entry-day stops and adverse opening gaps included, target opening priority, ambiguous intraday stop first. Vectorbt $10000 reinvested fractional proxy, 1bp fee+5bp slip per side; stress15bp slip. Fixed brackets omit +2R management and actual 15min/overnight execution. 3. train: marked 110.5027%, closed compound 108.0478%, DD 15.8699%, win 50.00%, N=42, open=1, targets=12. holdout: marked 25.6958%, closed compound 24.8288%, DD 6.4636%, win 45.45%, N=11, open=1, targets=3. forward2026: marked 0.5309%, closed compound 0.3321%, DD 8.4508%, win 20.00%, N=5, open=1, targets=1. Stress holdout: holdout: marked 22.8380%, closed compound 22.1126%, DD 6.8370%, win 45.45%, N=11, open=1, targets=3. 4. L10/40 and other trend filters recorded as sensitivities, not selected by holdout. Current survivor selection, retrospective adjustments, small N, prior viewing of history and no historical primary-event labeling mean this is a technical overlay experiment, not proof of bottleneck alpha. Marked return includes open paper; closed statistics do not. Conclusion: Benchmark only; outside Supply entry mandate.

1. Preregistered note3573, detailed methods3577. Daily SIP/all through Sep17; 2016-2023 train (AA starts Nov1 2016), 2024-25 calendar holdout, 2026 separate known-period diagnostic. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Next-open prior20-close breakout AND SMA50, prior20 arithmetic ATR, E-2ATR/E+6ATR brackets, 60-session max; entry-day stops and adverse opening gaps included, target opening priority, ambiguous intraday stop first. Vectorbt $10000 reinvested fractional proxy, 1bp fee+5bp slip per side; stress15bp slip. Fixed brackets omit +2R management and actual 15min/overnight execution. 3. train: marked 14.8198%, closed compound 15.8252%, DD 69.0629%, win 33.33%, N=51, open=1, targets=14. holdout: marked 32.4452%, closed compound 28.6361%, DD 56.5251%, win 41.18%, N=17, open=1, targets=6. forward2026: marked 57.9976%, closed compound 54.7930%, DD 36.9163%, win 50.00%, N=6, open=1, targets=3. Stress holdout: holdout: marked 27.8900%, closed compound 24.3360%, DD 57.0437%, win 41.18%, N=17, open=1, targets=6. 4. L10/40 and other trend filters recorded as sensitivities, not selected by holdout. Current survivor selection, retrospective adjustments, small N, prior viewing of history and no historical primary-event labeling mean this is a technical overlay experiment, not proof of bottleneck alpha. Marked return includes open paper; closed statistics do not. Conclusion: Retain as research candidate; historical positivity alone does not establish current signal, valuation or executable payoff.

1. Preregistered note3573, detailed methods3577. Daily SIP/all through Sep17; 2016-2023 train (AA starts Nov1 2016), 2024-25 calendar holdout, 2026 separate known-period diagnostic. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Next-open prior20-close breakout AND SMA50, prior20 arithmetic ATR, E-2ATR/E+6ATR brackets, 60-session max; entry-day stops and adverse opening gaps included, target opening priority, ambiguous intraday stop first. Vectorbt $10000 reinvested fractional proxy, 1bp fee+5bp slip per side; stress15bp slip. Fixed brackets omit +2R management and actual 15min/overnight execution. 3. train: marked -89.0755%, closed compound -89.0755%, DD 94.3601%, win 16.67%, N=36, open=0, targets=4. holdout: marked -27.3629%, closed compound -30.9049%, DD 45.5460%, win 26.32%, N=19, open=1, targets=5. forward2026: marked -29.2466%, closed compound -29.2466%, DD 32.3656%, win 16.67%, N=6, open=0, targets=1. Stress holdout: holdout: marked -30.1412%, closed compound -33.4812%, DD 46.7841%, win 26.32%, N=19, open=1, targets=5. 4. L10/40 and other trend filters recorded as sensitivities, not selected by holdout. Current survivor selection, retrospective adjustments, small N, prior viewing of history and no historical primary-event labeling mean this is a technical overlay experiment, not proof of bottleneck alpha. Marked return includes open paper; closed statistics do not. Conclusion: Baseline lacks consistent train/holdout support; reject as standalone live rule.

1. Preregistered note3573, detailed methods3577. Daily SIP/all through Sep17; 2016-2023 train (AA starts Nov1 2016), 2024-25 calendar holdout, 2026 separate known-period diagnostic. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Next-open prior20-close breakout AND SMA50, prior20 arithmetic ATR, E-2ATR/E+6ATR brackets, 60-session max; entry-day stops and adverse opening gaps included, target opening priority, ambiguous intraday stop first. Vectorbt $10000 reinvested fractional proxy, 1bp fee+5bp slip per side; stress15bp slip. Fixed brackets omit +2R management and actual 15min/overnight execution. 3. train: marked 106.4773%, closed compound 118.1736%, DD 69.9238%, win 33.33%, N=42, open=1, targets=13. holdout: marked 55.3394%, closed compound 29.6065%, DD 51.1477%, win 38.46%, N=13, open=1, targets=5. forward2026: marked -28.4114%, closed compound -28.4114%, DD 45.7865%, win 20.00%, N=5, open=0, targets=1. Stress holdout: holdout: marked 51.2015%, closed compound 26.2802%, DD 51.9231%, win 38.46%, N=13, open=1, targets=5. 4. L10/40 and other trend filters recorded as sensitivities, not selected by holdout. Current survivor selection, retrospective adjustments, small N, prior viewing of history and no historical primary-event labeling mean this is a technical overlay experiment, not proof of bottleneck alpha. Marked return includes open paper; closed statistics do not. Conclusion: Retain as research candidate; historical positivity alone does not establish current signal, valuation or executable payoff.