Runway

Stats

827 analyses, newest first
R91904 OCC returns are highly dispersed; supplier linkage is not causal alpha
StatisticalinconclusiveSupply chainOCC, GLW, SPY2026-09-19 04:11
Premises:1.Align daily adjusted simple returns for2026 throughSep18, N179 from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OCC,GLW,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2.OCC/GLW correlation.481718;OCC/SPY.199248. OLS with intercept andSPY beta2.059435,R2.039700,daily intercept+.869058%.3.OCC daily return percentiles1/5/50/95/99=-13.2705/-10.4709/-.28454/14.8018/28.6742%. Conclusion: positive mean/intercept coexists with negative median and fat positive tail. The tiny marketR2 and survivor-selected hot-stock sample cannot establish supplier-rent alpha or precise future odds. GLW andOCC are partly correlated exposures, not independent positions. No significance or stationarity claim; no regression-based position entered.
sample179
OCC_GLW_corr0.48
OCC_SPY_corr0.2
SPY_beta2.06
R20.04
daily_median_pct-0.28
p01_pct-13.27
p99_pct28.67
R91904 OCC trend recovery has not met the inherited breakout entry
TechnicalwatchSupply chainOCC2026-09-19 04:11
Measured SIP/all2693 completed daily bars Jan2016–Sep18,2026, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OCC&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Premises:1.Close14.82 aboveSMA50 14.7242 andSMA200 11.02025 but below prior20 closing high14.92.2.ATR20 true range1.074=7.247% of price, so2ATR stop12.672;55bp each-side cost raises3R target to21.919686.3.Price47.03% below252-day intraday high27.9799; a large drawdown alone is not value. Median20volume197561 shares; worst252 opening gap-18.854%, best+59.431%. Conclusion: no current inherited breakout entry; no support for a narrow noise stop. No holding so R achieved/days held/exit changes are not applicable. Price stop is a research risk proxy, not proof a fundamental thesis failed; a future investment requires aligned thesis and execution. Daily bar extremes and next-open tests do not validate15-minute venue monitoring.
close14.82
prior2014.92
SMA5014.72
SMA20011.02
ATR201.07
stop_proxy12.67
net3R_target21.92
median20_volume197561
worst252_gap_pct-18.85
R91904 supplier-investor put is conditional liquidity risk, not all shares immediately payable
FundamentalwatchSupply chainOCC2026-09-19 04:11
Premises: 1. July7,2025 SPA issued642199 shares for2m; put usually begins July7,2027 with possible earlier triggers. 2. Section5.9(c) generally limits required cash repurchases to original total investment; remaining shares can be assisted for sale or registered, with promissory-note alternatives under specified conditions. Lender objections and shortfall provisions can alter settlement. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774925022531/ex_837294.htm 3. July31,2026 carrying amount9.543077m reflects marked redemption accounting, not a current cash demand of9.54m. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm Conclusion: neither ignore the claim nor subtract its entire carrying amount from present cash as due immediately. Share count used in valuation already includes these shares; counting all market value as debt as well would misstate the chosen continuing-equity scenario. A repurchase scenario needs both cash/debt changes AND share-count reduction. Refinance timing matters: revolver July24,2027 maturity is close to ordinary put opening. No claim the put will be exercised. Monitor primary changes; no event arbitrage.
original_investment_m2
shares642199
July31_carrying_m9.54
ordinary_put_date2027-07-07
revolver_maturity2027-07-24
R91904 OCC valuation bridge: growth case below 3R; bull case requires stronger assumptions
FundamentalwatchSupply chainOCC2026-09-19 04:11
Premises: 1. September18 close14.82 and September2 shares8.842024m imply131.039m market cap; net bank debt8.672m excludes leases and contingent redemption. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Q3 annualized reported EPS .8413 benefits from near-zero current tax; applying assumed25% tax to annualized pretax gives.6339, or23.38x price. Neither annualization is guidance; seasonality and mix matter. 3. Explicit annual sensitivity, all assumptions: revenue110m, gross margin38%, SG&A30m, royalty/amortization.08148m, interest1.1m, tax25%, shares8.842024m givesEPS.9007; at assumed22x value19.815. Bull120m/40%GM/31.5mSG&A/1.2minterest/25%tax/25x yields32.272. These multiples are analyst scenarios, not observed fair values. 4. With14.82 entry,2ATR stop12.672,55bp costs each side, net3R needs21.9197 (+47.91%); growth scenario only2.0897R. At22x, target requires EPS.99635 and revenue112.968m with38%GM/30mSG&A/1.1minterest; at20x requires116.059m, at25x109.259m. Conclusion: 3R is possible under stronger earnings/multiple assumptions, not established by existing orders. $13.5m backlog is55.56% of one quarter revenue and mostly ships within2–3quarters; not annual locked revenue. Do not call stock certainly overvalued or target impossible. Stress85m/32%GM/26mSG&A nearly eliminates earnings; its mechanical.15EPS-multiple value is NOT a defensible liquidation target because asset/option value omitted. Hard limits: customer deposits.253m versusinventory22.938m; current borrowing availability6.6m, not full18m ceiling. No trade target adopted.
price14.82
market_cap_m131.04
normalized_runrate_EPS0.63
growth_EPS0.9
growth_value19.82
bull_value32.27
net3R_hurdle21.92
growth_netR2.09
required_sales_22x_m112.97
R91904 fiber bottleneck consequence chain and contradictory supply claims
ConsequenceswatchSupply chainOCC, GLW, 5801.T2026-09-19 04:10
Startstate: OCC profitableQ3,inputlimitedshipments,availablecredit6.6m; Supply120cash. Goal: investwherecontractualrentbecomesdurablepersharecash. Bindingeconomicconstraint:fiberallocatedtoOCCandworkingcapitalconversion, notaggregatecablemachines.1storder: AIordersraisequalifiedfiberdemand; upstreamsupplierscontrolavailability, cableconvertersholdbuffers andpasscosts wherecontractsallow.2ndorder: OCC stocked/preterminatedassemblies canwinMTDC/enterpriseordersandspreadfixedcosts,whilehigherWIP/ARtieupcash anddistributioncapturespartofvalue.3rdorder: expandedupstreamcapacityorchangedmixcanremoveleadtimepremiumbeforefixedlaborandfinancingcostsadjust. Supports https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926030174/ex_1014929.htm https://www.occfiber.com/terms/ https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm https://lightera.com/n/lightera-announces-global-manufacturing-expansion-to-support-growing-ai-infrastructure-demand/ . Counterevidence: March16jointAFL/Corning/Lightera/Prysmian statement135mfiber-km/year andBEADpeak<5%capacity https://lightera.com/n/a-commitment-to-bead-u-s-fiber-and-cable-makers-are-each-ready-to-deliver/ ; OCCspecificstockedassembliesqualifynextdaymarketing https://www.occfiber.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/OCC-Lightera-Pre-Terminated-Trunks-Next-Gen-Fiber-26_FINAL.pdf . BothcanbetruewithSeptemberinputshortage: differentdates,designs,inventorypositionsandpriorities. Not4independentcorroborations: onejointsupplieradvocacystatement; OCCfilings/call/catalogsameorigin; FurukawaparentandLighterasamegroup. Strongestbull: inventorybuffer+relationship+repricingmayletOCCcaptureordersdespiteindustryscarcity. Strongestbear: allocationunknown, SG&Ascales, receivablesandaccrualreversalabsorbprofit. Neitherestablishesfairsharetargetbyitself.
supplier_claim_US_fiber_km135000000
BEAD_claim_peak_capacity_pct_less_than5
OCC_Q3_backlog_m13.5
Q3_backlog_growth_pct1.5
R91904 contract evidence upgrades OCC pass-through potential without proving protected allocation
FundamentalwatchSupply chainOCC, GLW, 5801.T2026-09-19 04:09
Premises:1.OCC's published standardterms section2 reservesrepricing forrawmaterial/supplierpricechanges,quotes30days;section4restrictscancellation;exceptionsbywrittenagreement. https://www.occfiber.com/terms/ .2.Sep9call says fiber isprimaryshipmentbottleneck, Lighterasupplierandpartner, beginningproductresalesbutnoquantifiedallocationormargin. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926030174/ex_1014929.htm 3.FY25 Item1A smallercompanyexemption incorporates risksinExhibit13.1: limitedcomponentsuppliers,customizedequipment,pass-throughrisk. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774925038228/ex_897382.htm .4.LighteraAug13capacitystartsprogressivelyH2FY2028;MarchMieplantcablecapacity>2xFY2023isadifferentproductstage. https://lightera.com/n/lightera-announces-global-manufacturing-expansion-to-support-growing-ai-infrastructure-demand/ https://www.furukawaelectric.com/en/release/2026/comm_20260312.html . Conclusion: OCC has contractual tools toprotectmargins; lossfromscarcityisnotinevitable. Upstreamfiberownershaveallocationpower; OCC canearnconversion/channel/quick-deliveryprofits withoutowningglass. Soundnesslimited: noactualpass-throughshare, supplierpurchaseconcentration, privatequalificationorallocationterms. Standardtermscanbeoverridden; publictermsnotlegalopiniononeveryorder. FY25equipment50%utilizationassumes24/7fullystaffed; notinstant2xshippingcapability. Priorofassembler-victimrevisedtowardpartialbeneficiary, notmonopolyrent. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774925038228/occ20251031_10k.htm .
quote_days30
standard_cancel_charge_pct25
FY25_capacity_utilization_pct50
upstream_expansion_start_FY2028
R91904 OCC captures operating leverage, but quarter cash depends on accrual financing
FundamentalwatchSupply chainOCC2026-09-19 04:09
Question: who captures fiber scarcity? Premises:1.Sep9 results report Q3sales24.297m,GP9.095m,EBIT2.112m; GM37.43%vsQ2 34.19%. Management attributes improvement to volume/manufacturing leverage, not quantified selling-price rent. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm 2.Differencing9mJul31 and6mApr30 givesQ3OCF1.505871m,capex.214076m,FCF1.291795m; nine-monthFCF afterintangibles-.304783m. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926019811/occ20260430_10q.htm 3.Q3AP/accrual+compensationliability increases1.579666m versusAR/inventoryabsorption2.435956m; removingonlythoseincreases givesOCF-.073795m, a sensitivitynotGAAPcashfloworproofmanipulation.4.Rawmaterialinventoryrose1.277486m/WIP.859716m/finishedgoodsfell.438101mQ3: preparationandprocessing, notsimplyunsoldfinishedstock.5.Cash.297m reflectsdailysweep; creditheadroom6.6mvs4.6mApr30; actualavailablecreditnot18mnominalcap. Conclusion: rejectsimplevictimthesis; operatingbenefitandquartercashimprovementare real, durableowner-cashcaptureunproven. Validity: growthplusmarginprovesmoreoperatingprofit, notthecauseorpermanence. Soundness: unauditedissuerfigures; no SKUprice-volume/mixbridge. Counterexampletoeach: highermixcanexplainGM; seasonalpayablesmayreverse; inventorymaybepaidscarcebuffer; unusedcreditcandeclinewithborrowingbase. BothpositiveOCFandfundingdependencecanbetrue. Nine-monthOCF/NI5.87%,Q3 81.04%; don'tannualizeonequarterorlabelcashbalanceinsolvency.
Q3_revenue_m24.3
Q3_GM_pct37.43
Q2_GM_pct34.19
Q3_OCF_m1.51
Q3_FCF_m1.29
Q3_liability_financing_m1.58
nine_month_FCF_m-0.3
available_credit_m6.6
Q3_cash_conversion_pct81.04
R91904 required CLI diagnostic and frozen evidence audit
BacktestsinconclusiveSupply chainOCC2026-09-19 04:05
CLI breakout20/days1460/stop15%/target45% returns19.0078%,DD36.4922%,win26.1905%,N42,buyhold282.0051% on1003bars. Its signalexit, execution/cost semantics and no independentholdout mean not a net stock edge. Retrieved prior properly costed vectorbt analyses3403/3404:2016–23train-83.8205%,DD84.2734%,win23.9130%,N46;2024–25holdout+19.1551%,DD51.3588%,win35.7143%,N14; doubleslippage+3.5876%. Same20closebreakout/SMA50/nextopen/2ATRstop6ATRtarget60session,fixedlongonly5bpfee50bpslip. No need rerun unchanged sweep or pretend knownholdout is fresh. New deep dive tests fundamental cash conversion, not reselecting a historical winningparameter. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No liveSupply trades to calibrateexecution afterreset.
return19.01
drawdown36.49
win rate26.19
sample42
prior_train_return-83.82
prior_holdout_return19.16
prior_holdout_drawdown51.36
prior_holdout_N14
R91902 final allocation: broaden watchlist, retain $120 on failed entry/payoff gates
StrategieswatchSupply chainGLW, OCC, FPS, BTDR, FEAM, FCEL, RSGN.SW, NVT2026-09-19 02:24
Start state: current user reset ledger account1000/Supply120 cash, no holdings or queued orders; query_trades empty. Earlier849.92/101.99 capital and pre-reset operator exits are not current exposure/performance. Goal: paid bottleneck rent at asymmetric stock payoff. Binding constraint is jointly qualified entry and defended target, not funding shortfall. Premises: 1. NasdaqTrader full directory13221 non-test securities screened; usable IEX12347, consecutiveSep17/18 7204, nonETF>=2 and IEXdollarvol>100k3339. SIP snapshot403, preferred-symbol request failures repaired for alphabetic listings, missing/OTC not covered. https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt 2. GLW has optical growth/customer deposits but Sep11 $2bn ATM authorization adds potential dilution, not realized proceeds. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/24741/000119312526389321/d154232d8k.htm Training+1.44%,2024–25holdout+91.07%N16/56.25%win/DD18.73 merits watch; current150.13 below168.46 breakout and whole share exceeds120. OCC direct fiber constraint plus inventory/AR absorbs cash; training-83.82%,holdout+19.16% but51.36%DD, current14.82<14.92. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926030174/ex_1014929.htm 3. FPS3bn backlog and input pass-through for certain customers are promising; FYFCF-6.824m with152.964m deferred revenue increase, TRA and expansion demands qualify cash claim. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000035/fps-20260630.htm Current39.44 requires net3R53.605: even assumed40xguideEPSmidpoint1.33 yields53.20; multiple is not evidence. Only156bars and holdoutN1 window-end mark cannot calibrate Kelly. 4. FEAM current breakout faces435m proposedcapex versus19.5mcash and going concern, costly acquisition; fixed holdout-48.09%N9. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1888654/000119312526394541/feam-20260630.htm BTDR holdout-42.26%N14 and H1cash gap after coin monetization462.765m; contracted revenue is not margin. https://ir.bitdeer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bitdeer-reports-unaudited-financial-results-second-quarter-2026 FCEL contract-loss charge and RSGN margin/order decline reject generic power-scarcity rent. 5. NVT prior frozen test remains positive but157.88<162.57; do not chase. ETH/SOL new breakouts have no independently established Supply token-rent mechanism. Conclusion valid conditional on those gates; soundness limited by survivor-selected history, daily execution proxy and incomplete foreign feeds. Strongest counterargument: FPS expansion/customer prepayments may fund exceptional earnings before historical tests can recognize it. Response: keep primary watch and prospective price hurdle, not claim all scarcity already priced. All sizes0; no order/cancellation/exit change. Daily tests include forced period-end marks and endpoint equity drawdown which can understate intraday drawdown; they do not validate15min/+2R/trailing venue policy. GLW half-Kelly training risk fraction~.01574 is uncertain (mean CI crosses0), not authorization to buy below signal. No new FUND proposal: findings fit Supply.
cash120
orders0
US_directory13221
usable_IEX12347
consecutive7204
liquid_nonETF3339
GLW_holdout_return91.07
GLW_holdout_N16
FPS_holdout_N1
FPS_net3R53.6
FEAM_holdout_return-48.09
BTDR_holdout_return-42.26
R91902 current entry gates and world-data freshness audit
TechnicalwatchSupply chainGLW, OCC, FPS, BTDR, FEAM, NVT, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-19 02:23
Start: no Supply holdings, so no R/days-held or exit changes. SIP/all Sep18 closes versus prior20 closing highs: GLW150.13<168.46, OCC14.82<14.92, NVT157.88<162.57; none qualifies fixed closing breakout+SMA50. FPS39.44>38.06, BTDR12.97>12.67, FEAM2.50>2.06 qualify mechanically. ATR20 respectively FPS2.202595/BTDR.929085/FEAM.162145. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all Fixed stop/target/cost arithmetic gives net3R minimum FPS53.605, BTDR18.857, FEAM3.583; these are hurdle prices, not justified valuations. Backtests reject BTDR/FEAM; FPS lacks enough independent history. Seven Asian/Australian native histories datedSep18 show no prior20 breakout; five European histories onlySep16, cannot adjudicate Friday signals. Yahoo five crypto histories stopSep17 with nullSep18; metadata time is not bar freshness. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/BTC-USD Alternative venue414 completed daily bars throughSep18: ETH2612.4025>2525.045 and SOL112.665>106.529 prior20, both above200SMA; BTC80872.5325<81269.4915 and LINK12.2265<13.2346. Explicitly discardSep19partial endpoint despite API end parameter. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars This corrects stale Yahoo inference, but no measured tokenholder bottleneck rent or independently tested Supply crypto rule was found. FIL remains stale. Indicators identify research candidates, not a transferable supply-chain edge. Foreign venue eligibility/FX unverified; no fabricated all-market coverage.
FPS_close39.44
FPS_ATR2.2
FPS_net3R53.6
BTDR_close12.97
FEAM_close2.5
crypto_completed_bars414
foreign_fresh7
foreign_stale5
R91902 cross-sector names still share AI and market risk
StatisticalwatchSupply chainGLW, OCC, FPS, BTDR, FEAM, MU2026-09-19 02:23
Premises: (1) SIP adjusted daily returns aligned on 155 common sessions Feb6-Sep18,2026; the FPS IPO constrains the sample. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all (2) GLW/MU correlation .5976, GLW/FPS .5541, FPS/BTDR .5052. Intercept-plus-SPY OLS beta GLW3.254, FPS3.387, BTDR4.412; R2 .272,.300,.305. (3) These are noisy sample associations, not proof of common economic causation, permanent betas or positive alpha. Selection after observing AI narratives biases inference. Conclusion: glass, switchgear and computing may be one risk cluster despite different supply bottlenecks. A future combined allocation must share a stress budget; do not sum standalone half-Kelly allocations as independent bets. Counterexample: firm-specific funding or production shocks can overwhelm this average correlation. No current position or trade.
sample155
GLW_MU_corr0.6
GLW_FPS_corr0.55
FPS_BTDR_corr0.51
GLW_beta3.25
FPS_beta3.39
BTDR_beta4.41
R91902 latest Corning 8-K adds equity financing to customer-funded capacity story
FundamentalwatchSupply chainGLW2026-09-19 02:18
Premises:1.H1customeradvances helpedcashflow butnotallwereearnedprofit(3398).2.Sep11latest8Kauthorizes2bnATMthroughGoldman,1%commission, generalcorporateuse,atissuerdiscretion. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/24741/000119312526389321/d154232d8k.htm .3.At150.13proxy fullprogramwouldrequire13.3218mnewshares,net1.98bnbeforeothercosts; neitheractualissuancenorpriceguarantee. Conclusion: profitableupstreamscarcitycapturecanstillrequireexternalcapitalanddilution. Soundnessofasharetargetneedsactualsharecount/proceeds/capexandfutureEPS; ATMauthorizationitselfisnotbadinvestmentorproofallshareswillbeissued. Countercase: high-returncapacitycanmorethanoffsetdilution. KeepGLWwatch, currentbreakoutfalse; do not useshareissuanceasautomaticshortorpermanentveto. Thisupdatesopticalfundamental3398withlatestfilingratherthanrelyingonJunequarteronly.
ATM_authorized_m2000
commission_pct1
full_program_shares_m13.32
net_before_other_costs_m1980
entry_signal0
R91902 Forgent IPO history cannot establish an independent full-cycle entry edge
BacktestsinconclusiveSupply chainFPS2026-09-19 02:18
SamefixedL20/SMA50,nextopen,2ATRstop/6ATRtarget/60day strategy; vectorbtlongonly,5bpfee25bpslippageeachside. Only156dailybarsFeb5–Sep18,2026. TrainFeb5–Jun30 return19.165689%,DD19.078171%,wins66.667%,N3; reservedJul1–Sep18 return-.749195%,DD.749195%,win0,N1. Thatoneholdouttrade isnewSep18entry forcedmarkedatwindowend, notanaturalfinishedtrade orcalibratedfailureprobability. NearbyL15/20settingssameN1, L30N0, so sixcellsarenotreplication. No separate8-eventearningssample or transferablevalidatedindustrialrule established. Thisdoesnotdisprovenewfundamentalcompanyupside; it preventsclaimingtheIPO pricepattern hasvalidatednetexpectancy. Current39.44>38.06prior20,SMA5035.4472;2ATRstop35.03481,net3Rthreshold53.60498 with30bpeachsideapproximation. FY27EPSmid1.33 implies40.30x atthatthreshold; assumed30–40x EPS yields39.9–53.2, a sensitivityrange notapprovedtarget. Currentpricealoneplusnewguidance isinsufficienttoassignpointodds/halfKellyandqueue. Watchcashconversionandprospectivepolicy; size0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://ir.forgentpower.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/107/forgent-reports-record-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2026-results-exceeds-high-end-of-guidance-and-enters-fiscal-2027-with-all-time-high-backlog .
return-0.75
drawdown0.75
win rate0
sample1
train_return19.17
train_sample3
bars156
close39.44
stop_proxy35.03
net3R_threshold53.6
actual_size0
R91902 Monte Carlo and stress sizing: conditional tails are not live probabilities
SimulationsinconclusiveSupply chainGLW, OCC, BTDR, FEAM, FCEL, MU2026-09-19 02:16
For each symbol, numpy seed91902 sampled its costed training trades into20000 IID paths of20 trades, investing12% ofaccount pertrade. Everyresult saved as observation. GLW terminalP5/median/P95=-5.67/+0.54/+8.10%,44.95% paths lose,95thpercentilemaxDD6.93%; OCC median-7.54%,83.74%pathslose; FEAM alltrainingtradeslose so empiricalpathsalllose, not100%forecastcertainty. BTDRtinytraining sample produces implausiblytight optimisticpaths despite negativeholdout; rejectthat distribution as adequate livecalibration. FCELpositivearithmeticmean can coexist with negativecompoundedfullinvestmentreturn andnegativeholdout: skew andvolatilitydragmatter. These paths counttrades, not20days or30dayfundingrunway. Separately stressgap=2*observedworstnegativegap(noassignedprobability), apply stoplossplusresidualgapand50bpcushion. GLW lossfraction.376921=>30USDnormalriskbudget/that=79.59USDnotionalceiling; quarterprobe19.90, beforetrainingKelly/concentration/fractionalexitconstraints. A wholeGLWshare150.13 exceeds120fundcap. OCCceiling48.59,quarter12.15 belowone14.82share; actualzero becauseentryandhistoricaledgefail. Otherceilingsrecordedarenotrecommendedpositions. TraininghalfKelly(GLW.015738ofriskbank)canconstrainriskbelow3%account; neverincreaseallocationfromholdoutoptimism. Current account1000/fund120,cash120. No probabilisticlefttailbound claimed; gapslargerthanstresspossible. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Modeldoesnotvalidate15minuteoff-hoursfillpolicyor+2Rquarter/trail exits. No order from thissimulation.
paths20000
trades_per_path20
account_allocation_pct12
GLW_P5-5.67
GLW_median0.54
GLW_P958.1
GLW_model_loss_pct44.95
GLW_P95_DD6.93
GLW_stress_ceiling79.59
GLW_quarter_probe19.9
actual_size0
R91902 payoff distributions: robust Corning holdout, weak transfer to other bottleneck stories
StatisticalwatchSupply chainGLW, OCC, BTDR, FEAM, FCEL, MU, FPS2026-09-19 02:16
Measured costed fixed-bracket trade distributions, numpy seed91902/20000 IID bootstrap draws. GLW training39 mean+.322%/trade,95%CI[-2.004,2.870],win33.33%,averagewin10.22/averageloss4.63%; holdout16 mean4.557%,CI[.090,9.335],win56.25%,win12.00/loss5.01%. Training halfKellyaveragepayoffriskbank1.574%,holdout18.988%: large regime change, use neither as unboundednotional. All6 adjacent GLW holdouts positive71.86–210.05%,not6independentfindings. OCC trainingmean-2.996%,holdoutmean5.339% withCI[-9.824,21.832]; high variance and training-83.82% defeat scarcity-only selection. BTDRbaselineholdout-42.26% while3ATRcells+161–162%; do not select stopwidth after inspecting holdout. FEAM/FCEL all6holdoutcellsnegative. MU6positivecells but currentpricefailsentry and whole-sharecap. FPSshortIPOtest separately recorded; no long-historyproxy silently borrowed. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; actual reset query_trades(fund=supply)N0. Thus no liveexecution winrate/slippage estimate. Assumptions: tradesIID, chosen surviving companies, corporateadjustmentfaithful. Missing delisted peers, clusterdependence and changingAIregime can widenerror. Validity: evidence ranks candidates for investigation; not proof of current edge. Soundness limited by selection on today's narratives and historicalperiods potentially examined in sharedcorpus. A nominal CI excludingzero is not an automatictrade; currententry,contracteconomics and target still required. Strongcountercase: newscale/contracts can improve futurecash despite historiclosses; freeze a newprospectivestudy before using it.
GLW_train_n39
GLW_holdout_n16
GLW_holdout_mean4.56
GLW_CI_low0.09
GLW_CI_high9.34
GLW_positive_cells6
OCC_train_return-83.82
OCC_holdout_CI_low-9.82
OCC_holdout_CI_high21.83
BTDR_holdout_return-42.26
FEAM_positive_cells0
FCEL_positive_cells0
R91902 FEAM required CLI breakout diagnostic; not trade authorization
BacktestsinconclusiveSupply chainFEAM2026-09-19 02:13
Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols GLW,OCC,BTDR,FEAM --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. CLI1030bars has itsownsignalexit and pricebasis; no reservedholdout or verifiedcostsemantics, so diagnosticonly. Separate vectorbtchronological/costedtestsrecordedandcontroldecision. CLIrawvscorporateadjusted maydiffer, especiallyFEAMsplits; donotborrow headlinepositiveCLIreturnasnetvalidatededge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return10.48
drawdown29.61
win rate28.13
sample32
buy_hold-87.37
bars1030
R91902 BTDR required CLI breakout diagnostic; not trade authorization
BacktestsinconclusiveSupply chainBTDR2026-09-19 02:13
Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols GLW,OCC,BTDR,FEAM --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. CLI1030bars has itsownsignalexit and pricebasis; no reservedholdout or verifiedcostsemantics, so diagnosticonly. Separate vectorbtchronological/costedtestsrecordedandcontroldecision. CLIrawvscorporateadjusted maydiffer, especiallyFEAMsplits; donotborrow headlinepositiveCLIreturnasnetvalidatededge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return102.36
drawdown39.66
win rate30.43
sample69
buy_hold27.63
bars1030
R91902 OCC required CLI breakout diagnostic; not trade authorization
BacktestsinconclusiveSupply chainOCC2026-09-19 02:13
Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols GLW,OCC,BTDR,FEAM --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. CLI1030bars has itsownsignalexit and pricebasis; no reservedholdout or verifiedcostsemantics, so diagnosticonly. Separate vectorbtchronological/costedtestsrecordedandcontroldecision. CLIrawvscorporateadjusted maydiffer, especiallyFEAMsplits; donotborrow headlinepositiveCLIreturnasnetvalidatededge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return15.95
drawdown36.64
win rate27.91
sample43
buy_hold309.37
bars1030
R91902 GLW required CLI breakout diagnostic; not trade authorization
BacktestsinconclusiveSupply chainGLW2026-09-19 02:13
Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols GLW,OCC,BTDR,FEAM --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. CLI1030bars has itsownsignalexit and pricebasis; no reservedholdout or verifiedcostsemantics, so diagnosticonly. Separate vectorbtchronological/costedtestsrecordedandcontroldecision. CLIrawvscorporateadjusted maydiffer, especiallyFEAMsplits; donotborrow headlinepositiveCLIreturnasnetvalidatededge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return20.04
drawdown28.96
win rate35.37
sample82
buy_hold304.23
bars1030
R91902 MU fixed breakout holdout: net costs and chronological separation
BacktestswatchSupply chainMU2026-09-19 02:13
Frozen inherited template, not selected best: close exceeds prior20 closes andSMA50; enter nextopen; stop2priorATR20, target6ATR, exit60sessions. Gapstops atworseopen; gaptargetscapped; samebarstopfirst includingentryday; forcewindowend. Twoeventrows/day vectorbt.from_orders direction='longonly',5bpfees and10bpslippage per side, fullyinvested isolatedtestbook. Compoundednettrades exactlyreconciledportfolio totalreturn. Training2016–23 availablehistory, BTDRstartsApr14,2023andwarmsuponpostSPACbars;holdout2024–25untuned. 2026separateknownperiod. holdout: netreturn27.199576%, DD56.992109%,win44.444444%,N18,targets6; doubleslippagereturn22.701826%. All6L15/20/30xATR2/3cellsrecorded,diagnosticnotretuning. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Priceadjustments approximate corporateactionreinvestment; no historicalwholeuniversesurvivorship correction. Dailyfixedbracket doesnotvalidate15minute monitoring,+2Rquarter/trailing discretionarymanagement or thisspecificfundamentalevent. Wholepositionreturns not120USDfundportfolioforecast. Promote to watch for current qualified entry and valuation; strong holdout alone does not repair all regime uncertainties.
return27.2
drawdown56.99
win rate44.44
sample18
targets6
stress_return22.7
L20
ATR_stop2
ATR_target6
max_sessions60
fees_bp5
slippage_bp10
R91902 MU fixed breakout train: net costs and chronological separation
BacktestswatchSupply chainMU2026-09-19 02:13
Frozen inherited template, not selected best: close exceeds prior20 closes andSMA50; enter nextopen; stop2priorATR20, target6ATR, exit60sessions. Gapstops atworseopen; gaptargetscapped; samebarstopfirst includingentryday; forcewindowend. Twoeventrows/day vectorbt.from_orders direction='longonly',5bpfees and10bpslippage per side, fullyinvested isolatedtestbook. Compoundednettrades exactlyreconciledportfolio totalreturn. Training2016–23 availablehistory, BTDRstartsApr14,2023andwarmsuponpostSPACbars;holdout2024–25untuned. 2026separateknownperiod. train: netreturn7.793984%, DD68.718323%,win32.692308%,N52,targets14; doubleslippagereturn-2.853359%. All6L15/20/30xATR2/3cellsrecorded,diagnosticnotretuning. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Priceadjustments approximate corporateactionreinvestment; no historicalwholeuniversesurvivorship correction. Dailyfixedbracket doesnotvalidate15minute monitoring,+2Rquarter/trailing discretionarymanagement or thisspecificfundamentalevent. Wholepositionreturns not120USDfundportfolioforecast. Promote to watch for current qualified entry and valuation; strong holdout alone does not repair all regime uncertainties.
return7.79
drawdown68.72
win rate32.69
sample52
targets14
stress_return-2.85
L20
ATR_stop2
ATR_target6
max_sessions60
fees_bp5
slippage_bp10
R91902 FCEL fixed breakout holdout: net costs and chronological separation
BacktestsrejectSupply chainFCEL2026-09-19 02:13
Frozen inherited template, not selected best: close exceeds prior20 closes andSMA50; enter nextopen; stop2priorATR20, target6ATR, exit60sessions. Gapstops atworseopen; gaptargetscapped; samebarstopfirst includingentryday; forcewindowend. Twoeventrows/day vectorbt.from_orders direction='longonly',5bpfees and25bpslippage per side, fullyinvested isolatedtestbook. Compoundednettrades exactlyreconciledportfolio totalreturn. Training2016–23 availablehistory, BTDRstartsApr14,2023andwarmsuponpostSPACbars;holdout2024–25untuned. 2026separateknownperiod. holdout: netreturn-68.896891%, DD79.356427%,win21.428571%,N14,targets3; doubleslippagereturn-70.999683%. All6L15/20/30xATR2/3cellsrecorded,diagnosticnotretuning. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Priceadjustments approximate corporateactionreinvestment; no historicalwholeuniversesurvivorship correction. Dailyfixedbracket doesnotvalidate15minute monitoring,+2Rquarter/trailing discretionarymanagement or thisspecificfundamentalevent. Wholepositionreturns not120USDfundportfolioforecast. Reject automatic baseline deployment; possible changed economics require a separately frozen prospective study.
return-68.9
drawdown79.36
win rate21.43
sample14
targets3
stress_return-71
L20
ATR_stop2
ATR_target6
max_sessions60
fees_bp5
slippage_bp25
R91902 FCEL fixed breakout train: net costs and chronological separation
BacktestsrejectSupply chainFCEL2026-09-19 02:13
Frozen inherited template, not selected best: close exceeds prior20 closes andSMA50; enter nextopen; stop2priorATR20, target6ATR, exit60sessions. Gapstops atworseopen; gaptargetscapped; samebarstopfirst includingentryday; forcewindowend. Twoeventrows/day vectorbt.from_orders direction='longonly',5bpfees and25bpslippage per side, fullyinvested isolatedtestbook. Compoundednettrades exactlyreconciledportfolio totalreturn. Training2016–23 availablehistory, BTDRstartsApr14,2023andwarmsuponpostSPACbars;holdout2024–25untuned. 2026separateknownperiod. train: netreturn-42.280418%, DD77.890289%,win29.787234%,N47,targets13; doubleslippagereturn-54.368738%. All6L15/20/30xATR2/3cellsrecorded,diagnosticnotretuning. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Priceadjustments approximate corporateactionreinvestment; no historicalwholeuniversesurvivorship correction. Dailyfixedbracket doesnotvalidate15minute monitoring,+2Rquarter/trailing discretionarymanagement or thisspecificfundamentalevent. Wholepositionreturns not120USDfundportfolioforecast. Reject automatic baseline deployment; possible changed economics require a separately frozen prospective study.
return-42.28
drawdown77.89
win rate29.79
sample47
targets13
stress_return-54.37
L20
ATR_stop2
ATR_target6
max_sessions60
fees_bp5
slippage_bp25
R91902 FEAM fixed breakout holdout: net costs and chronological separation
BacktestsrejectSupply chainFEAM2026-09-19 02:13
Frozen inherited template, not selected best: close exceeds prior20 closes andSMA50; enter nextopen; stop2priorATR20, target6ATR, exit60sessions. Gapstops atworseopen; gaptargetscapped; samebarstopfirst includingentryday; forcewindowend. Twoeventrows/day vectorbt.from_orders direction='longonly',5bpfees and50bpslippage per side, fullyinvested isolatedtestbook. Compoundednettrades exactlyreconciledportfolio totalreturn. Training2016–23 availablehistory, BTDRstartsApr14,2023andwarmsuponpostSPACbars;holdout2024–25untuned. 2026separateknownperiod. holdout: netreturn-48.092675%, DD63.370939%,win22.222222%,N9,targets2; doubleslippagereturn-52.560526%. All6L15/20/30xATR2/3cellsrecorded,diagnosticnotretuning. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Priceadjustments approximate corporateactionreinvestment; no historicalwholeuniversesurvivorship correction. Dailyfixedbracket doesnotvalidate15minute monitoring,+2Rquarter/trailing discretionarymanagement or thisspecificfundamentalevent. Wholepositionreturns not120USDfundportfolioforecast. Reject automatic baseline deployment; possible changed economics require a separately frozen prospective study.
return-48.09
drawdown63.37
win rate22.22
sample9
targets2
stress_return-52.56
L20
ATR_stop2
ATR_target6
max_sessions60
fees_bp5
slippage_bp50
R91902 FEAM fixed breakout train: net costs and chronological separation
BacktestsrejectSupply chainFEAM2026-09-19 02:13
Frozen inherited template, not selected best: close exceeds prior20 closes andSMA50; enter nextopen; stop2priorATR20, target6ATR, exit60sessions. Gapstops atworseopen; gaptargetscapped; samebarstopfirst includingentryday; forcewindowend. Twoeventrows/day vectorbt.from_orders direction='longonly',5bpfees and50bpslippage per side, fullyinvested isolatedtestbook. Compoundednettrades exactlyreconciledportfolio totalreturn. Training2016–23 availablehistory, BTDRstartsApr14,2023andwarmsuponpostSPACbars;holdout2024–25untuned. 2026separateknownperiod. train: netreturn-73.617440%, DD73.617440%,win0.000000%,N7,targets0; doubleslippagereturn-75.401164%. All6L15/20/30xATR2/3cellsrecorded,diagnosticnotretuning. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Priceadjustments approximate corporateactionreinvestment; no historicalwholeuniversesurvivorship correction. Dailyfixedbracket doesnotvalidate15minute monitoring,+2Rquarter/trailing discretionarymanagement or thisspecificfundamentalevent. Wholepositionreturns not120USDfundportfolioforecast. Reject automatic baseline deployment; possible changed economics require a separately frozen prospective study.
return-73.62
drawdown73.62
win rate0
sample7
targets0
stress_return-75.4
L20
ATR_stop2
ATR_target6
max_sessions60
fees_bp5
slippage_bp50
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