Stats

Preregistered note246 before history. Selected current survivor, not unbiased universe strategy. Completed-close SMA10/50 crossover, next-session open entry/reverse-cross exit; flat start each window, historical warmup. Train2023-24, holdout2025-Sep4 2026. Vectorbt all-in fractional diagnostic cash10000, fee5bp/slippage10bp eachside; stress10/20bp. US IEX all-adjusted, overseas Yahoo adjusted OHLC/localcurrency; no FX, venue15minute stops or whole-share model. Training 11.5689%, 8 natural closes; holdout 294.8017%, DD37.3481%, 7 natural closes, 0 open marked positions. Mean95% bootstrap interval [-7.555799047972869,81.92217897636986]%. Nine training-only combinations5/10/20 by40/50/60 archived; training-best 10/60 subsequent return229.0861%, diagnostic not authorization. No retuning after holdout. All figures/code/trades in artifacts/results.json and archive to follow. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MU . Rejected for capital deployment: uncertain payoff and incomplete executable exit model.

Preregistered note246 before history. Selected current survivor, not unbiased universe strategy. Completed-close SMA10/50 crossover, next-session open entry/reverse-cross exit; flat start each window, historical warmup. Train2023-24, holdout2025-Sep4 2026. Vectorbt all-in fractional diagnostic cash10000, fee5bp/slippage10bp eachside; stress10/20bp. US IEX all-adjusted, overseas Yahoo adjusted OHLC/localcurrency; no FX, venue15minute stops or whole-share model. Training -20.2269%, 5 natural closes; holdout 100.8691%, DD52.6487%, 6 natural closes, 1 open marked positions. Mean95% bootstrap interval [-9.281859484395701,83.34189392058218]%. Nine training-only combinations5/10/20 by40/50/60 archived; training-best 10/40 subsequent return62.0380%, diagnostic not authorization. No retuning after holdout. All figures/code/trades in artifacts/results.json and archive to follow. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MP . Rejected for capital deployment: uncertain payoff and incomplete executable exit model.

Preregistered note246 before history. Selected current survivor, not unbiased universe strategy. Completed-close SMA10/50 crossover, next-session open entry/reverse-cross exit; flat start each window, historical warmup. Train2023-24, holdout2025-Sep4 2026. Vectorbt all-in fractional diagnostic cash10000, fee5bp/slippage10bp eachside; stress10/20bp. US IEX all-adjusted, overseas Yahoo adjusted OHLC/localcurrency; no FX, venue15minute stops or whole-share model. Training -70.4170%, 8 natural closes; holdout 3806.8958%, DD51.0432%, 3 natural closes, 0 open marked positions. Mean95% bootstrap interval [-26.874767394405925,3755.0995828171845]%. Nine training-only combinations5/10/20 by40/50/60 archived; training-best 5/60 subsequent return2247.0847%, diagnostic not authorization. No retuning after holdout. All figures/code/trades in artifacts/results.json and archive to follow. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AXTI . Rejected for capital deployment: uncertain payoff and incomplete executable exit model.

Preregistered note246 before history. Selected current survivor, not unbiased universe strategy. Completed-close SMA10/50 crossover, next-session open entry/reverse-cross exit; flat start each window, historical warmup. Train2023-24, holdout2025-Sep4 2026. Vectorbt all-in fractional diagnostic cash10000, fee5bp/slippage10bp eachside; stress10/20bp. US IEX all-adjusted, overseas Yahoo adjusted OHLC/localcurrency; no FX, venue15minute stops or whole-share model. Training -18.3796%, 7 natural closes; holdout 63.6120%, DD34.2930%, 6 natural closes, 0 open marked positions. Mean95% bootstrap interval [-6.253898200108404,33.81850909884469]%. Nine training-only combinations5/10/20 by40/50/60 archived; training-best 10/40 subsequent return57.7266%, diagnostic not authorization. No retuning after holdout. All figures/code/trades in artifacts/results.json and archive to follow. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/COHU . Rejected for capital deployment: uncertain payoff and incomplete executable exit model.

Preregistered note246 before history. Selected current survivor, not unbiased universe strategy. Completed-close SMA10/50 crossover, next-session open entry/reverse-cross exit; flat start each window, historical warmup. Train2023-24, holdout2025-Sep4 2026. Vectorbt all-in fractional diagnostic cash10000, fee5bp/slippage10bp eachside; stress10/20bp. US IEX all-adjusted, overseas Yahoo adjusted OHLC/localcurrency; no FX, venue15minute stops or whole-share model. Training -59.1435%, 8 natural closes; holdout 300.2631%, DD61.8216%, 4 natural closes, 0 open marked positions. Mean95% bootstrap interval [-22.650839954529136,162.84382945785072]%. Nine training-only combinations5/10/20 by40/50/60 archived; training-best 20/60 subsequent return337.2204%, diagnostic not authorization. No retuning after holdout. All figures/code/trades in artifacts/results.json and archive to follow. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AEHR . Rejected for capital deployment: uncertain payoff and incomplete executable exit model.

Numbered premises: 1. Live fundledger has0open/0pending,2closed operatorliquidations; no holdings toreset andno live lossdistribution. 2. Dueincidentreview28 completed: missing independentSept5lostcapacity/currentfixtures; issuerbookings predateevent,insuranceMarchtermsnotnewpremium. Bear/consequenceanalysis176 constrains reentry. 3. GEVprimary10K/Q2 review177/190supports bottleneck but distinguishes suppliercost/capacityrisk,firmorders fromreservations; numericaldiagnostic185–188 has5latertrades,zero naturaltrainingexits,meanCI[-6.493,58.899]%,currententryfalse andno executablevenueexitvalidation. 4. Existing tanker59/protein133–139/152tests remain unchanged, not rerun or promoted. Conclusion: PROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND none,authorizednotional0. Valid under requirednumericaledge; soundnesslimitedby selectedhistory,incompletecommercialdata andtails, notpredictionpricesfall. Counterargument: escalation or powerdemand maycontinue rising; missing payoffcalibration remainsbinding. Startallcash,goalrepeatablenetgains,constraint validatedexecutableedge; $349.01shortfall doesnotchangecriteria. Cap212.7475,riskbudget8.5099,fundcash278.67. Monitor28resolved,29GEVconferenceSep16armed,11/26/27retained; jobs12/16/18retained. NewGEVcollector403twice,notqueued. No event requiresriskbefore02UTCnextrun. Sources https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/ ; https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996810/000199681026000015/gev-20251231.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Fortyarchiveparts2958–2997exactreadback; lessons84–86. Researchphasefinished00:06,recordingfinished~00:10 withinprotected5minutes; no42minplanbranchoverrun,45minhardlimitnotapproached.

Measured arithmetic, not forecasting: GEV53/116=45.69%of gas combinedcommitments are firmbacklog;53/20=2.65 annualoutput equivalents versus116/20=5.8 includingreservations. These are workload scales, NOT delivery leadtimes: mix/scheduling/ramp matter. Planned20to30GW annualcapacity grows50%by2030; cumulative production requires actualramp, not30timesallprior years. Electrification equipmentbacklog excluding5bnacquired from40.6bn versus24bnprior grows48.33%, still strong but notreported69%. STNGaverage new3yearLR2hire41344 is36.30%below64900currentspotbookings; duration/vesselmix differ, so this is visibility/upside tradeoff, not a forecastspotdecline. GEV941.95*June30shares266333581 gives250.873bnmarketcap proxy,20.906x2026guidedmidFCF12bn/yield4.783%; stale sharecount and cashadvances preclude treating this as normalized cheapness. Binding unknowns supplier economics,contractconversion,rampcost and pricedexpectations. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996810/000199681026000148/gev-20260630.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996810/000199681026000147/gevpressrelease2q26.htm ; https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All calculations archived. No warranted positive short-horizon edge.

CompletedSep4 alladjustedSIP610GEVbars: close941.95,SMA10 929.047,SMA50 1015.3968,ADR20 34.878795,20sessionreturn-4.88428%. Priceabove10 butbelow50;10below50 andno freshupcross, so registeredentryfalse. These indicators share one pricehistory, not independent confirmations. Hypothetical1ADRstop/2ADRtarget distances34.88/69.76 are descriptive geometry only, not tested exits; do not apply to 66%average longtrendwin or enter withoutsignal. Maxwhole shares0under212.75cap; no holdings means no Rprogress,targetfraction or daysheld toadjust. Dividend-adjusted diagnostic does not validate raw executable exit prices. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; archive2958–2997 contains rawobservations andcode. Zeroentry.

Using fixed diagnostic's5net natural payoffs, NumPyseed906 produces10000IID paths each5trades, reinvest10%changingcapital pertrade. Terminal5/50/95percentiles[-2.2383,11.7462,28.4979]%,lossfrequency8.11%,95%trade-stepDD3.1173%. Conditional empirical illustration only: no calendar holding window, barrier-touch model, clustered regimes or unknown tail;5selectedtrades give unreliable odds. QuarterKelly plugin .25*(p/avgloss-(1-p)/avgwin)=1.56943capitalfraction fromp.4,avgwin.661459,avgloss.055673. This absurdly large estimate demonstrates estimationrisk, not permission. Authorized fraction0 because confidence spanszero,trainingclosed0,currentcrossfalse andexitmodel incomplete. $212.7475positioncap and$8.5099nominalriskbudget do not establish edge. GEV941.95 allows0whole shares undercap; fractional exits only regularsession under venue. Illustrative10%fundallocation27.867 would also requirefractionalshare. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; archive2958–2997, audit.py. No order.

Premises: fixed diagnostic has5closed holdouttrades andzero closed trainingtrades. NumPyseed906,10000IIDresamples of5 natural net payoffs:mean23.11798%,95%percentileinterval[-6.49303,58.89909]%. IID tiny-sample assumption ignores clustering/unseen crashes; interval is exploratory and likely understates structural uncertainty. 2025+daily OLS onSPY420alignedreturns givesbeta1.78518,annual arithmeticintercept45.17725%,corr.554865; descriptive selectedhistory, not causal supplyalpha. The huge averagewin66.1459% reflects long trend holds and cannot set a short swing target. Two live fundwins are forcedliquidations with no observed loss sample; they cannot replace this uncertainty. Prior cautious; genuine prospective net naturalexit sample with actualvenue risk control and positive robust lowerbound would change eligibility. Archive2958–2997. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Deductionzero authorizedsize valid under edgegate; no forecast that GEV falls.

Preregistered note210 before bars. SIP all-adjusted daily GEV/SPY start2024 toSep4 2026;610GEVbars startApr2 2024. Completed-close SMA10 crossing SMA50; nextopen entries/reverse-cross exits, longonly allcash. Vectorbt fees5bp/slippage10bp EACH side; stress10/20bp. 2024 training marked return82.6037%,DD9.2479%,ZERO closed/one terminalopen trade; cannot estimate training win/loss. Chronological2025+ holdout startsflat:129.1912%,DD27.205%,5naturalexits,40%wins,avgwin66.1459%,avgloss5.5673%; no terminalopen. Stress125.779%. Nine fast5/10/20 slow40/50/60 training combinations archived; fixed10/50 retained, not tuned. Independent cash arithmetic reconciles total return within3e-10percentagepoints; max tradecost difference4.04e-8dollars. CLIcontrol --symbols GEV --strategy sma-cross --fast10 --slow50 --days730 (actual flags separated in savedcli):501bars,134.4719%,DD27.7697%,win33.333%,6trades,buyhold375.2721%; different window/sameclose/noexplicitcosts, diagnostic only. Selected survivor, very small sample, no natural training payoffs; no range stop/target,+1R,15minute or fractional-session replay. Thus no trading authorization despite positive later performance. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; fullinputs/code/results archived observations2958–2997. This is a new GEV diagnostic, not revalidation of prior tankers.

Premises: 1. July22 issuer report supports equipment demand and rising capacity plans, but gas reservations and firm backlog are different commitments (observation2887). 2. Jan29 10K Item1A identifies concentrated/sole-source inputs, quality costs and excess-capacity risk; reviewed section gives no vendor concentration percentage (2888). 3. July financial strength does not establish an unpriced September signal. Strongest bear: customers reserve more slots than projects ultimately finance/connect, while critical components delay shipments; working-capital inflows reverse as deliveries consume advances. Counterargument: firm orders with substantive cancellation economics, installed-base service demand and pricing can sustain margins despite expansion. Validity: distinguish constraints and commitments before capitalizing rents; soundness bounded by issuer estimates and unavailable supplier/contract economics. Start: flat, capacity constrained manufacturing. Goal: repeatable net gains. Binding constraint: incremental risk-adjusted executable stock payoff. First-order: supplier scarcity delays machinery and permits higher quotations. Second-order: GEV captures rents only after component costs, warranties and delivery liabilities; utilities/customers absorb delay costs. Third-order: capacity expansion/competitors/demand deferrals can compress rents. Scenario, not observed outcome. No causal stock-return prediction, no target or size. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996810/000199681026000015/gev-20251231.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996810/000199681026000147/gevpressrelease2q26.htm . Conference monitor29 seeks falsification; new price diagnostic preregistered note210.

Premises: 1. Ledger flat, two former positions closed by operator; no open thesis needs an exit adjustment. 2. Issuer bookings predate Sep5; FRO warns ballast lowers realized rates; STNG Q2 describes fleet repositioning and lower exports reversing initial rate spike. 3. Skuld March warcover terms are not September premiums or proof these issuers lack cover. 4. Independent Sept5 losttonnage/fixtures unavailable in reviewed sources. FRO strongest bear: long-run trade normalization or cargo destruction reduces spot utilization and asset values; booked days limit incremental Q3 repricing. And then what: fewer cargoes offset longer routes; then renewal rates/cash flow weaken; then dividends and NAV support fade. STNG strongest bear: crude escalation need not improve product cargo availability, and contracted fleet/sales constrain spot upside. And then what: product shipments fall or repositioning completes; then uncovered days earn lower rates while operating costs persist; then charter renewals and valuation fall. Counterargument for both: rerouting and inventory replenishment sustain high rents. Both can be partly right across different voyage periods; no causal mapping from strikecount to EPS. Valid conditional chains, not predictions. Existing FRO test59 CI[-.8744,1.9585]% and STNG training-34.7095% remain controlling. Zero notional. Sources https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/ ; https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-financial-results-for-the-second-quarter-of-2026-and-the-declaration-of-a-dividend/ ; https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ ; insurer and incident observations2885–86.

Numbered premises: 1. Live query_trades and list_monitors show no supply exposure/pending orders and no due supply reviews; context cash278.67/equity850.99. 2. Existing corrected FRO test has41 natural trades,41.4634%wins,avgwin5.4627%,avgloss2.9636%,mean95%CI[-.8744,1.9585]%; STNG training-34.7095% and higher-cost holdout near zero. 3. Registered protein tests133/134 lose11.8844%/8.2084%; JBS135 has13 later trades but no training; latest recorded signals false. Prior statistical/simulation/technical/fundamental work is reused, not represented as fresh testing. 4. New primary incident observation2831 does not supply company-specific net economics or repair actual15minute/raw-dividend execution gaps. Conclusion: authorized allocation0; no PROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Valid deduction under robust edge requirement; soundness limited by selected historical samples and incomplete execution model, not a forecast of falling prices. Strongest objection is that waiting misses an escalation rally; the missing probability and loss calibration remain binding, so it does not authorize size. Start flat, goal repeatable net gains, constraint validated executable expectancy rather than cash. Two live forced-liquidation wins contain no observed loss distribution and cannot calibrate Kelly. Current25%cap212.7475 and nominal1%lossbudget8.5099 do not set position size. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars (saved tests/observations198/199,analyses47/59/133-139/152); https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4591744/centcom-destroys-3-irgc-oil-tankers-after-iran-targets-2-us-navy-warships/ ; https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf (prior collector note172 coversAug23-29, not postquota evidence). New monitor28 atSep6 00UTC seeks commercial transmission with both branches research-only. Existing11/26/27 and jobs12/16/18 retained. No new strategy, retest or simulation needed for unchanged rejection; no order executed. Finish recording phase begins16:36UTC, <3minutes elapsed of25 planned, all branches closed within allowances. Gaps: independent incident verification, losttonnage/cargo, fixtures/insurance/issuer exposure, actualvenue replay.

Premises: 1. CENTCOM Sept5 statement records a claimed physical incident (new observation); independent commercial damage/tonnage data absent. 2. Prior issuer review and tests59/48 remain controlling: booked TCE is not full-quarter realized earnings; ballast, contract exposure and offhire matter. 3. No new company deployment, freight fixture, insurance or throughput series establishes incremental net rents. First order scenario: lost usable shipping capacity or avoidance could tighten transport supply. Second order: compliant owners may receive rerouting demand, but reduced cargo exports and insurance/offhire costs could offset rate gains. Third order: persistent costs could alter sourcing and demand; normalization could reverse premiums. These are conditional mechanisms, not observed outcomes or political judgments. Strongest counterargument: historical FRO trend plus fresh incident may precede price repricing; counterexample is rising quoted rates with falling transported volume or uninsured loss. Binding constraint is quantified net executable edge, not incident salience. One military origin plus media copies does not establish independent corroboration. No new return probability assigned. Sources: https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4591744/centcom-destroys-3-irgc-oil-tankers-after-iran-targets-2-us-navy-warships/ ; https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000162828026021774/fro-20251231.htm . Prior issuer content read in recorded research, not refetched today.

Numbered premises: 1. Supply is flat with278.67deployablecash; two forcedliquidationwins do notestimate natural edge. 2. Primary Aug26proclamation andAug31CBPnotice establish limitedlean-trimaccess, while actualquota fills,companycontracts anddeliveredmargins remainunknown. USDA Sep4physicalimportreport coversAug23–29, notpostimplementation; legalaccess, reportedflow andrealizedprofit are separate observations. 3. TSN cattlepurchasesandbeeflosses, PPCmargincompressiondespitevolume, and JBSgeographic/accountingdifferences mean no listedcompany is established as an unqualifiedbeneficiary; analyses124/125 containpremises,counterexamplesand sources. 4. Fixednettests133/134 rejectTSN/PPC; JBS135 positive6.77% on13trades butzero training andCI[-.643,1.753]%, hence WATCH only. Allcurrentsignalsfalse; stats136,sim137,technical138,CLI139saved. 5. Actual15minute/+1R/rawdividend/whole-shareexits remainunvalidated. Conclusion: no PROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; authorizedallocation0. Deductionvalidunderrequirednumericaledge; soundnessboundedbyselectedhistories,smallN,unobservedcontracts/tails anddailybar assumptions. Strongestcounterargument is that exportmargins may improve despite loweroffers, but thisneedsdeliveredvolumes/costsandindependentpayoffevidence. No claimpricesmustfall orpolicyisgood/bad. Sources https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ ; https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100493/000010049325000095/tsn-20250927.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Monitors26USDASeptember17/27quotaSeptember29are researchreviews, existing11retained. Job18daily30runs localpassed;pypdf6.17.0pinned; sandboxfirstoutputpending04:11. Existingjob16sandboxverifiednote151. Full4584rawbars/code/results archived146observations, exactreadbackmatchverified04:11, SHA221a98926f09130fb3317e26ba56d88210f071d27382bb795f324aa663ee7549. Lessons64–66saved. No otherfundactions. ~11minusedof43planned; final5minphasebegan04:10, nooverrun.

Executed node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TSN,PPC,JBS --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 6. TSN502bars return-1.468%,DD8.739%,win36.364%,N22;PPC502 return-13.312%,DD22.030%,win24.138%,N29;JBS309 return5.029%,DD12.038%,win40%,N25. Sameclose/noexplicitcosts, differentrule andnoindependentholdout, so notexecutablevalidation. Registeredtests133–135 useexplicitfees/slippage andnextopen; no parameterchosenfromCLI. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; cli.json archived.

CompletedSep4SIPadjustedbars. TSN51.42 belowprior20close58.07/SMA5057.1102;PPC30.48 aboveSMA5029.0449 butbelowprior20high32.43;JBS13.03 slightlyaboveSMA5012.9982 butbelow14.23priorhigh. Twenty-sessionreturns-10.574/+11.038/-8.433%. Combinedpriceindicators are one source, not independentconfirmations. ADR20 givesraw hypothetical1ADRstop/2ADRtargetdistance,but withoutsignal orvalidatedpayoffs there is no justifiedentry/stop/target. Account1%nominalrisk8.5108 islossbudgetnotfillguarantee; whole-sharemaximum25%equity212.77 beforefundcap278.67. Actual15minute/+1R/dividendcash exits untested. Noneopen/pending, noRprogressorhorizon toadjust. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations1732–34. Do not infer reversalfromTSNweakness orbuyPPCsolelybecause20dayreturnpositive.

NumPy10000circular3tradeblockpaths, each19TSN/20PPC/13JBStrades, allocate10%changingcapital pertrade. Terminal5/50/95 percent TSN[-2.530,-1.243,.220],PPC[-2.709,-.771,1.100],JBS[-.642,.716,2.056]; trade-step95%DD2.627/3.038/1.144%. These conditional historical resamples are not monthend or policy forecasts, actualbarrier-touch odds, or whole-shareexecution. Fullfund278.67 initial10%27.867 cannotbuywholeTSN/PPC, so illustrativenotexecutionplan. Plug-inquarterKellyTSN/PPC0,JBS1.665capitalfraction beforeconstraints demonstratesestimateinstability, notpermission; JBSmeanCIcrosseszero andtrainingabsent. Allauthorizednotional0. Unobservedgaps,15minutechecks, liquidityandcorporateactions remainunmodeled. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; test.py andobservations1724/1727/1730. Avoid translatingbootstrap frequencies into probabilitiesofpoliticalorpolicyoutcomes.

Premises: net naturalpayoffs from registeredtest have smallsamples and selectedcurrentnames; the two liveSupplywins were operatorliquidations and contain nolossestimate/referencequotes. NumPyseed90504 circular3tradeblocks,10000 draws; TSN95%meanCI[-1.4654,.2683]%,PPC[-1.5547,.7230]%,JBS[-.6432,1.7526]%. Allincludezero; no positive lowerbound forrisk. Blockresampling retainslocaldependence but cannotremove selection/regimes or unknowntails. Descriptive2025+stockdailyOLSvsSPY uses420TSN/PPCdays and308JBSdays: betas.16053/-.04664/.28185; annualarithmeticintercepts-2.817/-7.212/-.659%, not causalalpha or policyeffect. Priorcautious; replicatedprospectivefixedrule with actualvenueexits and positive netconfidence wouldchange it, repeatingheadlinewon't. Validdeductionzeroauthorizedrisk under fundcriteria; soundnessconditional onhistoricaldata. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations1723–1737, savedrawdata/code.

Registered note159 before pricefetch: prior20 completed-close breakout AND SMA50; nextopen entry, signalADR20 stop1/target2, 5sessions exitnextopen, no pyramiding; entryday barriers included, stopfirst both-touch, adversegapactualopen/favorabletargetgapcapped. Training2022–2024, chronological diagnostic holdout2025–Sep4 2026;2021warmup. Fees5bp andslippage10bp eachside separately in finalvectorbt replay; stress10/20bp. Currentselected names make this exploratory, not prospective or causal policy study. All-adjusted SIP bars paginated, datesunique; synthetic9h/16h rows encode ordering, not observed intradaybars. Independentcashledger reconciles below2e-12; terminalopenfalse; naturalexitpayoffs only. Trainingtarget1.5/2 stop1/1.25 sweep saved, fixed1/2 unchanged. 309bars startJune13 2025; no training, so laterperiod not independently trained OOS. Positive estimate does not justify adoption. No actual15minute/+1R/rawdividend/whole-share replay, so daily barrier model is ineligible. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; artifacts/test.py/results.json/trades.json and archive. QuarterKelly authorized0, no current signal.

Registered note159 before pricefetch: prior20 completed-close breakout AND SMA50; nextopen entry, signalADR20 stop1/target2, 5sessions exitnextopen, no pyramiding; entryday barriers included, stopfirst both-touch, adversegapactualopen/favorabletargetgapcapped. Training2022–2024, chronological diagnostic holdout2025–Sep4 2026;2021warmup. Fees5bp andslippage10bp eachside separately in finalvectorbt replay; stress10/20bp. Currentselected names make this exploratory, not prospective or causal policy study. All-adjusted SIP bars paginated, datesunique; synthetic9h/16h rows encode ordering, not observed intradaybars. Independentcashledger reconciles below2e-12; terminalopenfalse; naturalexitpayoffs only. Trainingtarget1.5/2 stop1/1.25 sweep saved, fixed1/2 unchanged. Training/holdout result does not establish positive stable expectancy; reject implementation, not all supply signals. No actual15minute/+1R/rawdividend/whole-share replay, so daily barrier model is ineligible. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; artifacts/test.py/results.json/trades.json and archive. QuarterKelly authorized0, no current signal.

Registered note159 before pricefetch: prior20 completed-close breakout AND SMA50; nextopen entry, signalADR20 stop1/target2, 5sessions exitnextopen, no pyramiding; entryday barriers included, stopfirst both-touch, adversegapactualopen/favorabletargetgapcapped. Training2022–2024, chronological diagnostic holdout2025–Sep4 2026;2021warmup. Fees5bp andslippage10bp eachside separately in finalvectorbt replay; stress10/20bp. Currentselected names make this exploratory, not prospective or causal policy study. All-adjusted SIP bars paginated, datesunique; synthetic9h/16h rows encode ordering, not observed intradaybars. Independentcashledger reconciles below2e-12; terminalopenfalse; naturalexitpayoffs only. Trainingtarget1.5/2 stop1/1.25 sweep saved, fixed1/2 unchanged. Training/holdout result does not establish positive stable expectancy; reject implementation, not all supply signals. No actual15minute/+1R/rawdividend/whole-share replay, so daily barrier model is ineligible. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; artifacts/test.py/results.json/trades.json and archive. QuarterKelly authorized0, no current signal.

Start278.67cash; goal repeatable net gains; binding constraint is measured executable edge. Physical chain: (1) authorized imported lean can supplement domestic fatty trimmings and pressure grinding input prices; (2) contracts, freight, quota access and buyer concentration divide savings among exporter/importer/grinder/retailer; (3) if consumer prices fall, substitution demand and breeding incentives may change, while limited live-cattle availability can still constrain slaughter plants. Opposite chain: inspections, diversion from existing buyers or quota termination limit incremental supply, so scarcity persists. Neither chain is a probability forecast. Who benefits conditionally: eligible producers and import distributors with deliverable stock/market access, grinders with retained savings, consumers if passed through. Who bears risk: cull-cow sellers, suppliers without access, fixed-cost slaughter plants, poultry sellers if price competition increases. USDA Sep4 report endsAug29, hence cannot confirm newquota execution; top57520mt is allmeat, freshbeef38291mt. Monthly100000mt implies23333mt/week equivalent but is not actualadditionalflow. PlattsSep1 FCA3.03 down.25 (-7.62%) is an assessment without reported trades, not25%realizeddiscount. Sources https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf ; https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/090126-brazil-origin-beef-offer-levels-into-us-drop-at-start-of-tariff-free-period ; observation1665policy. Strongest counterargument: tariff savings could improve exporters despite lower offers. Plausible, but unknown landed costs/allocations and mixed corporate exposure prevent quantified stock edge. Capacity grants do not supply cattle; no newfund justified.

Premises: 1. Aug26 proclamation targets lean trimmings, with discount monitoring and termination discretion; official CBP notice confirms administration, not filled orders (observation1665/1690, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ ). 2. Cattle sourcing differs from grinding inputs: TSN 10K says no own cattle-raising facilities and warns pass-through failure; Walmart18.7% sales gives buyer leverage (1669, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100493/000010049325000095/tsn-20250927.htm ). 3. Loss-making TSN beef versus profitable chicken shows rents differ by segment; PPC volume growth alongside margin compression refutes automatic substitution profits (1668/1687). 4. JBS Brazil earns positive EBITDA but NorthAmericaBeef loses; consolidated exposure includes debt and other proteins. PPC502.9 IFRS reconciles exactly to360USGAAP; two issuer statements are not independent evidence (1689). Conclusion: eligible exporters and ground-beef buyers are conditional beneficiaries; US slaughter margins require actual cattle/output spreads and utilization improvement. Deduction valid as exposure map, not stock-return forecast. Soundness limited by missing shipment contracts, plant-specific access, buyer pass-through and current quota fills. Counterexample: lower cattle bids can restore packer margins, while lower beef prices can weaken chicken pricing; watch actual spreads rather than classify companies permanently. Quarter annualized multiples in1693-95 are illustrative, not fair value. No trade edge follows from policy authorization.