Stats

Sep4completedSIPclose225.59>SMA20 218.9165>SMA50 211.586 butbelowprior20HIGH226.68; combinedsignalfalse. ADR20=5.304275, illustrative1ADRstop220.285725/1.5ADRtarget233.5464125 atlastclose. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=MATX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . These arenotstandingorders or livequotes. One225.59share exceeds212.7475positioncap by12.8425; limitatthecap wouldalter thepreregisterednextopenstrategyand requireseparatevalidation. Fractionalpurchase would restrict afterhoursexits and doesnotrepair negativeedge. NominaloneADRrisk5.304275<8.5099equityriskcap doesnotboundgaps. Noopenholdings to calculateR/targetprogress/daysheld; noqueuedorders toadjust.

Numpyseed2026090808;20000 IIDbootstrapmeans from13holdoutcostedtrades give95%meaninterval[-1.70934,1.71237]%. p=.46153846,avgwin.03488118,avgloss.03056249; Kelly p-(1-p)/(win/loss) negative, clampedquarterKelly0. Circularblocklength3,20trades/path,20000paths:10%equityexposure lossprob55.23%,median-.147805%,p95DD2.392424%;25% lossprob55.555%,median-.413686%,p95DD5.919851%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; fixedentryledger analysis1144. These are empiricalconditionalstressillustrations, not calibratedfutureprobabilities;13trades missunseenregimes and extremegaps. Initialcashincluded inpeak. No unconditionalbullishpricepaths usedtooverridefailedrule; no actual15minexitprobabilityverified, so capitalzero. Accounttwohistoricaloperatorwins have no empiricalavgloss and cannotreplace this sample.

1424 matched daily logreturns2021–Sep4 2026, MATX/SPY/IYT consolidatedSIP adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Annualvol39.3144%; 1/5/50/95/99percentiles[-6.25904,-3.60672,.118246,3.57557,7.17046]%. CorrelationsMATX/SPY.467525,MATX/IYT.565051. NumpyOLS MATX~constant+SPY+IYT coefficients[.000589068,.199300,.899655],R².322242. Contemporaneousdescriptivefactorfit, not prospectiveexcessreturn or causalweatheridentification; no significanceclaimed forintercept, residualautocorrelation/selection uncontrolled. Sourcecovers selectedcurrentticker and totalreturn-like adjustedprices, not everydelistedshipper. CommercialsourceJulyportmeasurement is lagged and cannotbe regressed as dailySeptemberweatherwithoutinventedobservations. Financialpayoffbootstrap recorded separately; no newedge inferred.

Executed node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols MATX --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 1700 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 4.5. CLI1165bars,97trades,return-30.82459%,DD41.17376%,wins28.86598%,avgtrade-.35229%,buyhold158.23066%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . ExistingCLIauditanalysis53 establishes IEX/default nofees/touchfills/samesignalclose semantics; notsame testasnewSIP nextopenADRrule. Do notattribute discrepancy solelytofeed and do notuseCLI as executablevalidation. Required diagnosticruncompleted; preserveoutput/command. Noholdoutpretended inCLI; customtestseparatelyholdsout2026.

Preregisterednote1013. ConsolidatedSIPadjustmentall daily1425bars2021–Sep4 2026 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=MATX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Training2022–24,validation2025,holdoutJan1–Sep4 2026, resetflat. Close>previous20dailyHIGH AND>SMA50; nextopen long, previousADR20fixed1Rstop/1.5Rtarget,max10sessions. Entryday exitsincluded in two dailyexecution slots; gapstop paidopen,gaptarget cappedtarget,bothintradaytouchesstopfirst,no sameday reentry. Fees5bp+slippage10bp eachside,stress25bp slippage. vectorbt explicitlongonly tradecount/compoundedreturn reconciled independentledger; daily marked drawdown not15minvenueexecution. Train+12.7051%,DD13.9755%,N38,p52.6316%,avgwin3.4027/loss2.9987%; validation+6.3149%,DD2.977%,N5; holdout-1.1617%,DD10.7850%,N13,p46.1538%,avgwin3.4881/loss3.0562%;stress-4.9422%,DD13.6811%. Fixedbaseline notchanged aftertraining-only9neighbor sweep. Correction to code explicitly prioritizes gappedtarget before laterintradaystop, resultsunchanged. No claim weather causality or execution at15minobservations. Selectedcurrentticker/smallholdout/corporateactioncash and executableovernightquote gaps mean positive result alone would notqualify. Here pointedgealsofails; allocationzero.

1. Aug3 issuer Q2results establish growth in China rates and volumes, but were substantially preannouncedJuly15; nofreshSep8earnings surprise established. https://investor.matson.com/news-releases/news-release-details/matson-inc-announces-second-quarter-2026-results-and-raises-full . 2. Aug4June30 filing reportsH1CFO231.6m,vesselconstruction199.8m,othercapex55.7m; CFOminusboth=-23.9m vsprior194.6-104.1-71.4=19.1m. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3453/000110465926090003/matx-20260630x10q.htm . Excludinggrowthships yields175.9m, but that is not unrestrictedFCF. CCFwithdrawals197.7m are priorcapitalrelease, notcurrentoperatingprofit. Cash119.3m. QuarterChina37200containers vs32300; report usesFEUandvoyagedeparturevolume while earningsrecognizevoyageprogress, notTEUspotquotes. 3. Annual10KFeb27for2025: top10oceancustomers~19%; terminals,rail,trucking,agents,oceanvendors critical, no disclosedvendorpercentage extracted. Three3400TEUships fromPhilly expectedQ1/Q3 2027,Q2 2028; SouthKoreansubcontractor/delivery risks can delayCLXupsizing. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3453/000110465926020944/matx-20251231x10k.htm . Full364504chartextobtained after60kCLI truncation; riskboundaryItem1B verified. 4. Strongcountercase: newships areproductivegrowthinvestment and nearfullChina yield can fundthem; negativepostcapexcash alone is not insolvencyorovervaluation. Oppositecase peakpremiumfades, fuelrecoveryslips and newcapacityrequiresmorecash. No normalizedTTM valuation or forwardcashyield established; do notpriceequity from annualizedseasonalEPS. Binding capacity/cash conditions remain, latestprice225.59 exceeds212.7475whole-sharecap; nofundamental probability manufactured.

1. Premise: capacity disruption can raise willingness to pay for reliable expedited sailings. MaerskSep4 operational notice https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/04/east-asia-typhoon-season-impacting-logistics supports disruption but noMATX paid incrementalrate. Counterexample: MATX shares originport/feeder constraints and loses voyages. 2. First order: reliable carriers may capture yield; importers absorb freight and inventory carryingcosts. MATX Aug3 already nearfull China capacity implies incremental yield/retention, not unlimited extra boxes https://investor.matson.com/news-releases/news-release-details/matson-inc-announces-second-quarter-2026-results-and-raises-full . 3. Second order: brokers pass higher freight through revenue with thinner margins; Q2Logistics revenue+30.4% versusOI+3.5%,margin7.4%versus9.3%; H1SSAT9.8mversus13.9m shows terminal lift losses. 4. Third order: buyers reroute/substitute air or reorder earlier, rival capacity arrives and peak season fades; premium earnings can normalize. MATXannual https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3453/000110465926020944/matx-20251231x10k.htm identifies ownvendor/shipyard/port dependence. Facts end at reported operations; future margins and repricing are conditional inference. Validity: congestion alone does not imply shareholder gain; soundness limited by absentSeptember realizednetbacks. Binding constraint is reliable delivered capacity at positive marginal contribution. Reconsider only documented paidyield netofcosts plus independentlyqualifiedstockedge, not more copiedcongestionreports.

1. Startstate cash278.67supply/equity850.99,noopen/pendingverified; goal positive repeatablenetedge under212.7475cap and8.5099risk. Lessons351/350 applied; twooperatorliquidationwins cannotestimateavgloss. Ledger https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . 2. Operating premise: CF captures some currentnitrogenrent (ammonia265grossmargin/ton vs125), but deliveries/ownedcashbind. Counterexample: ownYazoooutage, highergas, forwardcontracts andNCIoffsetprices. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000019/cf-20260630.htm . Yara'smarginimprovement anddemanddeferral undermineUS-onlystory https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/yara-reports-strong-q2-margins-despite-market-volatility/ . Annual risks andconsequencechain1041/1042/1082 explain pipelineconcentration, price/volumeincidence and2029capacityresponse. Commodityphysicalshocktiming/uncommittedprofitableslots notindependentlymeasured. 3. Trade premise: preregisteredCF20high/SMA50 rule needs netindependentedge. SIPtest1055 train-8.2860%,validation+7.2461%,holdout-22.3400%N17;win29.4118%,avgwin4.1183%,avgloss3.7145%,quarterKelly0. Counterexample to universalfailure: lowvolsubgroup+1.0593%N6 andIEXtrendholdout+24.39%; neither qualifies, formerselectedsmallgroup,latterSIP-14.72%andtrainingnegative. All9SIPtrainingneighborsnegative. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 4. Exit premise: dailybrackets mayoverstateexecution. Test1057 RTHpolling-21.5194%N16,availableextended-13.6335%; missingovernightquotes prevents actualvenueequivalence. Simulation1080 entry-conditioned20tradepaths lose97.495%at10%exposure, whileunconditionalbullish2026paths target51.19%. Counterexample: broadupwarddrift can makepassageoddslookgoodwithoutentryedge. Rejecttheinference, notthemath. Currentcombinedsignalfalse; affordableonesharecannotrepairnegativeexpectancy. 5. Validity: proposals requirebothoperationalcase andqualifiednetstrategy; latterfails, thereforeallocation0. Soundnessboundedbyfeeds,shortsamples,adjustedhistory,currenttickers andfillmodel; no claimallfutureCFinvestmentsfail. Prioroperationalrentplausible; recordedfiguresraiseconfidenceitexisted,but futurestockwinprobabilityuncalibrated. Newindependentlyregisteredprospectiveentry-conditionednetreturnevidence withpositiveuncertaintybound,coststressandactualquoteexits couldmoveeligibilityfromrejecttoreview; no fabricatedBayesianprobability orretuning. 6. Noorders/proposals/FUND. Existingmonitors/jobs unchanged; no newnear-datedCFcatalyst verified andnofailedsignalrequiresbetween-runaction. Next08UTCrun can usearchiveddata/premises, not reruntuneCF. Namedgaps currentglobalphysicaltonnes, exactaction/dividendcash, executableovernightquotes, fullnormalizedTTMvaluation. Allanalysiskinds recorded; lessons359–361. Finishphasebegan14min, wellwithin42minallowance; nooverrunfundedfromfinish.

June30issued151641530 less45854treasury=151595676shares; Sep4close133.35 gives20215.283m approximate marketcap, mixing dates deliberately labelledproxy. AnnualizingH1CFO1374-PPE494=880m yields8.70628%; subtractH1NCIcashdistributions201m first gives6.71769% commoncashproxy. These are mechanical multiples, not fairvalue or forecast: seasonal firsthalf,170msettlement,insurance,BluePointconsolidation/partnercontributions andfuturecapex complicate annualization. Current actual sharecount/TTMnormalized freecashflow not established. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000019/cf-20260630.htm andprice https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No cheap-stock conclusion is actedon. Strong countercase: normalizedcash can stayhigh while supplytight; opposite case lowerprices/newcapacity andCFcapex consume futurecash. Neither supplies a tradeprobability.

Sep4 completed consolidateddailyclose133.35>SMA20 125.689 andSMA50 120.7736, but belowprior20high141.27, so frozencombinedsignalfalse. ADR20 4.857175; arithmetic1ADRstop128.492825/1.5ADRtarget140.6357625. These referencelevels are not orders; livequote/limit mechanics andcorporateactions require revalidation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . One share133.35=15.66998%equity850.99 and47.85230%fund278.67;two266.70>212.7475positioncap. NominaloneADRrisk4.857175<8.5099 equityrisklimit doesnotbound gaploss;15minsimulation5thpercentileloss9.314. Fractionalhalfexit changes afterhourseligibility. No holdingstoassessRprogress/targetcompletion/horizon; noqueuedorders toreview. PointquarterKelly0 andnegativevalidation evidence dominate nominalaffordability. A positive SMA is not enough to trigger entry.

Numpy seed2026090806:20000 IID mean-bootstrap samples of17SIPcostedholdoutreturns give95%meaninterval[-3.05764%,+.392927%]. Point p=.294118,w=.0411832,l=.0371447 yieldsnegativeKelly,floorquarterKelly0. Circularblocksof3consecutivetrades,20tradepaths×20000: at10%equityexposure,lossprob97.495%,medianreturn-2.72194%,p95maxDD5.40579%;at25%,lossprob97.615%,median-6.72086%,p95DD13.02296%. Initialcashincluded inpeak. Small empiricalsample and unseenlosses make these conditionalstress illustrations, not forecastprobabilities. Separate seed2026090807: resample170complete2026RTHdayblocks,includingovernightopen relativepriordailyclose,20000ten-daypaths,entry133.35/risk4.857175/target1.5R,15minobservedcloses,cost30bpapproxroundtrip. Unconditionalfixedpathmean+.68369%,target51.19%,stop47.145%,timeout1.665%,loss47.75%,p05-6.98464%. Halfat+1R/stopBE scenario mean+.52896%,target45.62%,stop39.45%,BE14.54%,timeout.39%;half taken51.14%. Positive means inherit2026upwarddrift and ignore entry conditioning; observed strategy loses22.34%, so cannot size from unconditional51%targetodds. No 20–04quotes/executablebid or stressregime coverage; halfsharemanagement impracticalforwhole-shareafterhourstreatment. Atone133.35share,p05model loss9.314 exceeds8.5099riskbudget despite nominal4.857stoprisk. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . No proposal.

1255matched dailylogreturns Sep2021–Sep4 2026. CF SIP,peersIEX adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CFannualizedvol38.3374%;1/5/50/95/99pctiles[-6.54592,-3.82171,.106695,3.88321,6.15356]%. Correlations CF/MOS.631186,CF/NTR.678122,CF/SPY.166138. NumpyOLS CF~constant+SPY+MOS+NTR coefficients[.000897788,-.163206,.284375,.524489],R².505259. Descriptive contemporaneous regression, not causal scarcity identification or prospectivealpha; no inference from positiveintercept without independenttest andselection control. Correlatedpeers make conditionalbeta differ from pairwisecorrelation. MatchedCF1256sessions IEXvsSIP opening absolutepercentage difference median.21175%,p95.92168%,max2.68442%;48sessions>1%. SIPhas2additionaldays. Sep4opens133.74IEX/135.43SIP,closeboth133.35. ADR20SIP4.857175 exceedsIEX4.44475by9.27892%. Feedcoverage changes breakoutlevels/stops and training sign. Zero volume/duplicate/OHLCordering checks pass; rawSIP/IEX recentbars saved. Adjusted data approximate totalreturns but do not certify dividendcash mechanics or executionquotes. Current survivingtickers, no delistedcompanies and missing historical global physicalspread observations are selection gaps.

Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Fixed training-only9neighbors lookback10/20/40×SMA20/50/100: SIPall9trainingreturnsnegative, range-19.50065% to-3.76505%; no parameter selected afterward. Breakoutonly andboth yield identical17holdouttrades -22.33999%; SMA50 adds no independent confirmation inthis regime. Trendonly SIPtrain-47.26636%N121,validation-3.73932%N27,holdout-14.71645%N46. IEXtrendonly holdout+24.39130% is contradicted by SIP and negativeearlierperiods; never substitute it for failedbaseline. SIPholdout highvol (prior20logvol>trainingmedian) N11 mean-2.30685%, win18.1818%; lowvolN6mean+.232226%,win50%,compound+1.05929%. MarketaboveSPY200DMA N16mean-1.16706%, belowN1-5.30901%. Tiny lowvol subgroup is posthoc diagnostic not a rescue rule. Trend, breakout andvolatility conditions are correlated; do not multiply their apparent winprobabilities. Missing broad regimes, survivorship and repeatedtest dependence prevent a calibrated conditional edge.

Frozen consolidated daily20high/SMA50 entries, next9:30baropen,1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget/max10sessions. SIP2026Jan2–Sep4:6676 15minbars;4420regularbars,170days all26RTH intervals. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Poll lastcompleted15minclose; crossing stop/target exits atobservedclose minus10bpslippage and5bpfee eachside. No intra-bar touch fills; no same-dayreentry. RTHonly N16,return-21.51943%,DD28.64888%,win31.25%,avgwin5.24118%,avgloss4.41431%. Availableextendedbars N16,return-13.63352%,DD26.42337%,win37.5%,avgwin4.94403%,avgloss4.26073%. These are diagnostics, not actual venue backtests: sparse afterhoursbars omit pollinginstants, lasttrades aren't executablebidquotes, no overnight20–04 coverage, zero latency and next-open fillapproximation. Bothnegative under favorable latency assumptions; no need assume missingprints are zero moves. Two daily versus polling tradecountdifferences arise fromhold-duration/reentry timing, not independent samples. No +1R management in baseline; separate MonteCarlo managementscenario is not validation. Entry remainszero.

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CF --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1700 --stop-pct3 --target-pct4.5 (actual flags separated in archivedcommand). CLI1165 IEXbars,101trades,return-37.16635%,DD44.41383%,win31.68317%,avgtrade-.425359%,buyhold96.50752%. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . This is fullsample built-in diagnostic with own signal-exit semantics, no costed out-of-sample qualification; custom preregistered vectorbt test separately includes costs,next-open entry,ADR exits andchronologicalholdout. Do not combine their samples or claim CLI verifies actual venuefills.

Preregistered notes962/966. Python/vectorbt longonly, prior20-high breakout AND SMA50, next-open entry, priorADR20 stop1×/target1.5×, max10sessions. Entryday exits included, gaps through stop atopen, targetgaps cappedattarget, bothhit stopfirst.5bpfees+10bpslippage eachside; periodendflat; allin cash benchmark, not proposed allocation. Independent ledger agrees with vectorbt compoundedreturn andtradecount to1e-9. ConsolidatedSIP adjustmentall Sep2021–Sep4 2026 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Training2022–24 -8.2860%,N30,DD17.7676%,win43.3333%; validation2025 +7.2461%,N9,DD5.1629%,win55.5556%; untouched2026holdout -22.3400%,N17,DD26.9704%,win29.4118%,avgwin4.11832%,avgloss3.71447%. Stockbuyhold+74.6333% inholdout is not strategyexpectancy. Stress25bpslippage eachside loses26.2014%holdout and16.1798%training. Current signalfalse. Nine training-only lookback/SMAvariants reported separately, baseline neverselected fromholdout. IEX baseline+4.6223%train/+6.5787%validation/-25.2049%holdout; feed differences change training sign, not decision. Daily adjusted OHLC and mark-to-market DD are simplified; polling/extendedfills evaluated separately, adjusted dividends cannot certify live rawprice stops. Current-company selection and limited regimes constrain inference; rejection of this rule not all CF strategies. QuarterKelly0; no entry.

1. First order: lost foreign nitrogen output can raise delivered fertilizer prices; operating producers capture spread only after gas, transport and own downtime. CF's677 sellingprice and412cost/ton illustrate existing rent; phosphate makers buying ammonia and farmers can absorb cost or reduce purchases https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000019/cf-20260630.htm . 2. Second order: demand deferral, changes in product mix and imports moderate the premium; Yara reports delayed off-season purchasing https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/yara-reports-strong-q2-margins-despite-market-volatility/ . CF forward-priced sales and constrained storage mean spot prices cannot be applied to all future tonnes https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm . These links are hypotheses, not measured farmer elasticities or MOS earnings forecasts. 3. Third order: scarcity encourages capacity and infrastructure. BluePoint Aug26 project3.7bn×CF40%+550m=2.03bn attributable planned outlay, mechanically507.5m/year if spread evenly across fouryears (actual timing unknown);1.4Mt/year capacity expected2029. Linde ASU and OXY/EnbridgeCO2 service are contractual infrastructure exposure, not evidence of their margins https://ir.cfindustries.com/Investors/news/news-details/2026/CF-Industries-JERA-Co--and-Mitsui--Co--Ltd--Break-Ground-on-Blue-Point-One-the-Worlds-Largest-Low-Carbon-Ammonia-Plant-in-Louisiana/default.aspx . No production before completion inferred. LNG exports could narrow USgas advantage while CCS failures impair credits. Valid chain is conditional; profitable new slots, customer acceptance and stock edge remain required. No proxy purchase or separate FUND justified.

1. CF Q2 ammonia selling price677 minus cost412 gives265/ton grossmargin versus452-327=125 prior; volume fell20%. This supports realized pricing power, not merely a quote. H1 CFO1374m minus PPE494m=880m; CFO grew19.58%, versus netearnings including noncontrolling1545m, conversion88.93%. Exclude170m settlement and75m insurance from recurring-rent interpretation, without pretending pretax items can simply be subtracted from EPS. Cash2480m includes341mVIE; NCI distributions201m reduce common-owner cash. Source issuer quarter https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000019/cf-20260630.htm . 2. Binding constraint: accepted profitable output and delivered gas, not announced demand. Annual CHS13%sales, Donaldsonville40%capacity and some singlepipelines; forward sales may cap spot upside https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm . 3. Counterexample to US-only rent: Yara Q2 EBITDA906m versus652m(+38.96%) with delayed purchasing https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/yara-reports-strong-q2-margins-despite-market-volatility/ . Geographic label misses diversified gas exposure. Two company origins; issuer presentations repeat their own filings. Soundness: audited annual risks/current unaudited quarter describe their own operations; independent current global tonnes and transaction-price data absent. Stronger margins do not establish unpriced stock expectancy.

1. Start state: no open or queued supply positions, verified ledger https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev ; fundcash278.67, equity850.99 from context. No EXIT/ADJUST required. Lessons331/330 applied; no closed trades awaiting lessons. 2. One deep dive, tree note916: does a Bombardier US restriction transfer pricing power to deliverable substitutes? Policy status remains unverified, not disproven; July9 text directs negotiation https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/adjusting-imports-of-commercial-aircraft-jet-engines-and-aircraft-and-engine-parts-into-the-united-states/ . Canada's September8 counter-tariffs are a different policy. Analysis1003 distinguishes certified engine models and origin risks;1004 measures cash/valuation. Correction13288: blocked Bombardier endpoint was quarterly candidate, not annual; full Bombardier annual report not obtained. GD/TXT annual risks were fully retrieved. 3. Primary dealer evidence changes the incidence hypothesis: available used-aircraft owners and maintenance capacity may capture earlier than OEM backlog, but no independently validated listed beneficiary emerged. Analysis1008 and https://iada.aero/press-release/224/iada-reports-strong-start-to-2026-as-business-aircraft-market-stabilizes-at-elevated-levels . Ten independent source-origin groups including IADA; syndicated political/issuer coverage is not corroboration. Contradictions resolve by period, mission, accounting definition and aircraft quality; current spare slots remain unknown. 4. Frozen GD test999 rejects: train-15.0392%,holdout-7.4434%N7,win14.2857%,avgwin2.29118%,avgloss1.65053%;CI[-1.99661,.175079]%. CLI1000 also loses before costs. Statistical1005,simulation1006 andtechnical1007 retain zero; current signalfalse and359.40 whole share exceeds212.7475cap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . This price rule is not a calibrated political-event strategy. No fabricated event probability; quarterKelly0. No retuning or cheaper proxy. 5. Validity: proposal needs numeric net edge plus policy/capacity evidence and executable limits; these gates fail, so no proposal. Soundness is bounded by IEX data, current-ticker selection, adjusted history, daily rather than15min exits and small holdout; it is not proof that all future aircraft investments fail. Binding economic constraint is uncommitted accepted delivery capacity, not headline demand. Strong counterargument: canceled slots and repricing can generate future profitable transfers, so retain prospective watch. 6. Replaced near-expiry carrier39 with tested job79 preserving4carrierURLs and adding4policy/issuer panels; remote first04:15:23exit0,complete8panels; Bombardierchallenge explicitly missing coverage. Next06:15 is AFTER06UTCmanager, so no intervening fresh output promised. Monitor74 chosen12:30review has both branches and noautomatictrade. ExistingASPI43/BWEN69/QFR58 unaffected. 7. All measured inputs/scripts/results archived76parts, byte-exact readback, manifest944 SHA25671eef43b5f83287b81b3ae953748acb74ff6724d1ffe714f292c22e884c2641f. Lessons349–351 recorded. Finished around19of42minutes; reserved final5minute phase began16:35early. No overrun; cut open-ended tariff component classification, Bombardier annual access and precise slot schedules as named gaps rather than borrowing finish time. No new FUND justified; supply mandate already covers the chain. Funding gap349.01 changes neither edge nor risk. NO PROPOSALS.

1. First order, conditional on effective new-aircraft restrictions: Bombardier US deliveries can fall, US buyers seek a mission-compatible slot, and available used aircraft gain scarcity value. GD gets negotiating opportunities but not immediate delivered revenue. GE Passport loses exposure if Global7500/8000 demand migrates to Rolls-powered Gulfstream; some other transfers stay within Rolls. Sources https://www.geaerospace.com/news/press-releases/ge-aerospace-shipping-500th-passport-engine ; https://www.rolls-royce.com/products-and-services/civil-aerospace/business-aviation ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40533/000004053326000032/gd-20260705.htm . 2. Second order: buyers extend existing ownership or charter, increasing maintenance demand but also waiting for engine/prebuy capacity. Incumbent owners and intermediaries can capture more immediately than an OEM with committed backlog. Bombardier itself retains possible service demand;674m services/2150m Q2 revenue is31.35%, so a blanket company loss estimate is unsound https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/30/3335861/0/en/Bombardier-Reports-Significant-Second-Quarter-Free-Cash-Flow-Growth-and-Strong-Profitability-as-Backlog-Lengthens.html . Parts restrictions could instead strand this fleet: policy scope changes the sign. 3. Third order: profitable premiums attract new production, dealer inventory and alternative sourcing, but supplier qualification and certification delay substitution. Retaliation and customer postponements may destroy volume rather than redistribute all of it. Textron risk factors explicitly describe certified-vendor lock-in https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000021734626000006/txt-20260103.htm . Over time US manufacturing investments, exemptions or trade settlements can eliminate temporary rent. Independent operating crosscheck: IADA July27 H1 report746 closed transactions(+21%),118 dealer inventory purchases(+87%),67 price reductions(-11%);97% accredited dealers report activity. https://iada.aero/press-release/224/iada-reports-strong-start-to-2026-as-business-aircraft-market-stabilizes-at-elevated-levels . Buyer/seller index2.74 favors sellers. Dealer comments describe late-model premiums and engine/MRO constraints; a contrary respondent reports slower decisions and more realistic prices. Both can hold across aircraft quality, age and regions. Member activity is not the entire global market; sentiment respondent count unknown and commercial incentives favor positive framing. Multiple quoted dealers are one survey collection, not many independent datasets. Conclusion: earlier capture by available-asset owners is a plausible reframing, not a listed-stock edge. No public pure owner beneficiary with audited incremental margin and tested payoff was established. Under these missing links, no new FUND or trade. The strongest counterargument is a newly canceled Gulfstream slot or faster accepted output; either requires fresh evidence.

Completed Sep4 IEX daily bar retrievedSep8 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Close359.40 belowSMA20 382.46525, SMA50 377.7838 and prior20-session high397.08. Combined breakout AND trend signal false. ADR20=5.39325; illustrative1ADR risk/1.5ADR reward references354.00675/367.489875, target2.25094% from close. These are arithmetic references, NOT actionable levels or an order: signal absent, test999 negative, current quotes stale and actual15min/+1R management unvalidated. One GD share359.40 exceeds212.7475 venuecap by68.93%; fractional execution cannot resolve lack of edge. Do not tighten stops or select a cheaper proxy merely to use capital. No open positions means no holding-age,R-progress or exit-adjustment work.

Numpy seed20260908, after20000 mean-bootstrap draws, resample the7 costed holdout returns from observation12763 IID into20000 paths of20 trades; compound10% hypothetical equity exposure per trade and include initialcapital in drawdown peak. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Loss probability99.77%, median cumulative return-2.19837%,95th percentile maximumDD3.20858%. This is a conditional empirical stress illustration, not a forward forecast or15-minute exit simulation. Single-period IID sampling omits clustering, unseen crashes and political regime changes; adverse results cannot be rescued by a persuasive supply story. Negative point quarterKelly is floored0; authorized size0. Venue limits212.7475/position,278.67fund and8.5099 nominal risk are ceilings, not targets. No event win probability is calibrated.

Python pandas/numpy, matched daily log returns2022–Sep4 2026, IEX adjustment=all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Raw counts GD1172/GE1173/TXT1172;1171 matched returns. GD/GE correlation.34985, GD/TXT.52545, GE/TXT.47580; shared macro/defense factors and GE corporate transformations confound economic substitution. Correlation is neither tariff-event causality nor a hedge ratio. GD daily quantiles1/5/50/95/99%=[-3.58259,-1.88758,.073469,2.00976,3.72127]%, annualized sample volatility20.9136%. Current-ticker selection and feed coverage miss delisted firms and most global aircraft owners. No event surprise series or transaction-price microdata, so a causal regression is not identified and was not fabricated. Frozen-rule holdout7 returns from observation12763 average-1.08743%;20000 IID bootstrap resamples, seed20260908,95% mean interval[-1.99661,.175079]%. Seven selected trades and a lone winner give weak tail calibration; interval crosses zero and point edge is negative. Supply's2 closed operator-liquidation wins provide no empirical losing-trade mean. Numeric evidence supports zero size, not a probability for the political threat. Full measured correlations, quantiles and trade distributions recorded12752–12776.

1. GD July29 Q2 filing: aircraft revenue generally requires acceptance of a fully outfitted aircraft; deposits precede revenue. Deliveries41 versus38(+7.895%), H1 79 versus74(+6.757%). Q2 Aerospace sales3525m/profit510m, margin14.5%, orders5278m; funded backlog22992m and total23977m. Total backlog/Q2 sales=6.802 quarters, NOT a delivery lead time or unsold slot count. Growth attributed to volume/mix, not isolated pricing. Guide13.8bn2026 Aerospace sales/14.7% margin. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40533/000004053326000032/gd-20260705.htm 2. H1 Aerospace6804/27575=24.675% sales,1003/2880=34.826% group operating profit. Group CFO4035m-capex437m=FCF3598m; deposit cash inflow1168m is28.947% of CFO, not all Aerospace. Net debt3183m. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40533/000004053326000029/gd-20260705exhibit991.htm . Sep4 close359.40 divided by twice H1 EPS8.35=21.521x seasonal annualization proxy, NOT forward P/E https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 3. Sensitivity, not forecast: a1% premium on ALL13.8bn guided Aerospace sales, with zero extra cost, adds138m EBIT, only2.396% of twice H1 group EBIT. A repricable fraction f reduces that to138*f; no f estimated. This generous bound includes services and cannot be applied to locked backlog. Additional volume, expenses, taxes and retaliation could change the result either way. 4. Bombardier Q2 services674/2150=31.349% revenue; CFO338m-investment110m=FCF228m versus-164m prior. Backlog21.8bn versus17.5bn(+24.571%) includes services, not just jets. New-aircraft restrictions need not eliminate installed-fleet service cash. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/30/3335861/0/en/Bombardier-Reports-Significant-Second-Quarter-Free-Cash-Flow-Growth-and-Strong-Profitability-as-Backlog-Lengthens.html 5. Dassault H1 deliveries13, full-year40 guidance requires27 in H2,2.077 times H1;83 Falcon backlog includes future models. https://www.dassault-aviation.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2026/07/2026-first-half-year-Results-Financial-Release.pdf . Company slides attribute increased cash mainly to Rafale export advances; do not assign1.2bnFCF to Falcon scarcity. Rolls still forecasts150–200mGBP supply-chain cash impact despite574m contractual margin improvements across widebody/business aviation https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press-releases/2026/30-07-2026-rr-holdings-plc-2026-half-year-results.aspx . Contract catch-ups and large-engine MRO growth do not prove spare Pearl700 capacity. Conclusion: current profitability is real, yet margin attribution and incremental slots are unproven. Strong counterargument: healthy deposits fund expansion and firmer prices appear at later renewals. Require actual model-specific deliveries, margin/cash and cancellation data. These figures support conditional monitoring, not a short-horizon price target. Measured arithmetic saved12778; no EUR/USD aggregation without FX.

Premises collected September8 2026: 1. September7 political demand is linked through https://www.trumpstruth.org/?per_page=100 to https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/117230978314061095 ; direct post extraction failed. July9 proclamation directs negotiations and an update within180days, not a September sales-ban mechanism: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/adjusting-imports-of-commercial-aircraft-jet-engines-and-aircraft-and-engine-parts-into-the-united-states/ . Scoped White House/Commerce/CBP/Federal Register searches found no implementing instrument. Unverified is not nonexistent. 2. Canada operational exemptions include G500/G600/G700/G800 charter operations https://tc.canada.ca/en/aviation/reference-centre/exemptions-canadian-aviation-regulations-cars . They narrow the blanket blocked claim, but do not settle every certification/sales issue. Separate September8 counter-tariffs specify15/25/50%, origin and in-transit exceptions: https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2026/08/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-counter-tariffs-effective-september-8-2026.html .630-row text screen matched no aircraft/8802/8807/8411; generic components remain unclassified, so no exemption inferred. 3. Bombardier issuer response names Texas wings, California flight controls,2800 US suppliers and>2.5bn annual supplier spending https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/bombardier-statement-004300095.html . Advocacy and US component manufacture do not prove US final assembly or exemption. Its annual PDF endpoint returned challenge HTML, leaving audited US revenue exposure unverified; do not multiply a politician's50% claim by forecasts. 4. Global7500/8000 uses GE Passport https://www.geaerospace.com/news/press-releases/ge-aerospace-shipping-500th-passport-engine ; G700/G800 uses Pearl700, Global5500/6500 Pearl15 https://www.rolls-royce.com/products-and-services/civil-aerospace/business-aviation . Top-end transfer may hurt GE and help Rolls; smaller Global transfer changes Rolls mix. Certified engines are not interchangeable. Textron's3500nm Longitude serves a different mission https://cessna.txtav.com/citation/longitude?trk=NavCitation ; its annual filing warns certified vendor replacement can stop production https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000021734626000006/txt-20260103.htm . Falcon10X service2029 cannot fill immediate demand https://www.dassault-aviation.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2026/07/2026-first-half-year-Results-Financial-Release.pdf . 5. GD's full2025 risk factors warn one/two suppliers, qualified labor, certification delays and demand cyclicality;70% government revenue and38% aircraft backlog outside North America complicate pure US substitution exposure https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40533/000004053326000006/gd-20251231.htm . Conclusion: conditional GD beneficiary, divided upstream incidence, no proven immediate rent. Start: cash278.67, no holdings. Goal: accepted incremental production with retained cash contribution. Binding constraint: deliverable uncommitted capacity plus effective policy scope. Prior automatic-Gulfstream-benefit idea downgraded to watch; a signed instrument plus documented incremental profitable deliveries changes operational status to supported, but allocation remains zero until independent net payoff validation. No calibrated policy probability available. Validity of conditional chain is sound; soundness cannot establish it occurs today. Counterexamples: canceled slots enable rapid transfer; overseas buyers replace US buyers; tariff remission averts disruption; supplier inflation absorbs premium. Facts are dated disclosures; all order-transfer effects are hypotheses. Independent origins: political speaker, US government, Canadian government, Bombardier, GD, GE, Rolls, Textron, Dassault; syndications count once.