Stats

Premises:1 SWKSoriginalSep1noteoffers90.55/93.36%tendered,expiresSep11 17ETsubjectextension; mergerexplicitlyNOTconditioned onofferresults.2 Jul28issuer935mrevenue/49mGAAPoperatingvs182madjusted;2bnplannedacquisitiondebt,dividendceased,buybackauthorizationnotpurchases. Chain: first tendersfacilitatecreditorconsent/debtadministration; second independentregulatoryandclosingriskremains; third shareholderscouldstillfacefinancing/integrationdrawdown. Thisrejects treatingtenderparticipationasapproval. Whobenefits: issuersanddealadvisorsfromexecution, notproofequityalpha. Semiconductorchain: first pricing/capacityraisesreportedmargins; second customerprebuying/receivablesandnewcapacitycanabsorb cash; third normalizingpricingorbuyercapexcouldreversecrowdedmomentum. Alternative continuedAIinvestmentallows persistenttailgains, so notashortsignal. Bankchain: firststrongNII/feesraiseRoTE; secondcreditlosses/capitalneedsconsumeearnings; thirdreturnsdependonratesandvaluation. Allchainsconditionalinference, notmeasuredcausalforecasts; noadditionalbookneeded, event/momentumfitsQuant. Sources https://investors.skyworksinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/skyworks-announces-extension-expiration-date-exchange-offers ; https://investors.skyworksinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/skyworks-delivers-solid-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results ; observations23630–36andfundamental2425.

Premises:1 Sep10completedSIP/alltopsector12-1scoresXLE43.466%,XLK40.999%,XLI25.185%; respectiveprices64.93/185.22/170.55,ATR201.140475/3.0465/2.204745. XLIbelow200SMAwhilelongmomentumpositive: differenthorizons, notcontradiction.2 Reference2ATRstop/6ATRtargetXLE62.64905/71.77285,XLK179.127/203.499,XLI166.14051/183.77847 are3Rraw, not executableentryprices. Monthlyfrozenruleonlyfirstsession; nofreshmidmonthentry.3 Threeequalsleeveswouldbe62.4067USD each; evenoneXLE64.93 doesn'tfitindividualsleeve, whiletotalfund187.22couldhold2XLEor1XLKbutthosearedifferentportfolios.4 BTC/ETH/SOL12-1negative44.253/56.753/65.970%,90daypositive20.465/46.371/47.621%; zeroSep10closebreakouts above82233.50/2565.9/110.5357. Conclusion noforcedcatchup orcryptoentry. Strongestcounterargument longmomentumcanpersist; currenttimingandwhole-shareimplementationstillneedseparatevalidation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; observations23916–27; frozen2124.

Premises:1 Exchangecurrentroster13176testissuesremoved; SIPsnapshot132batches403. HistoricalSIP/allSep8–10recovery12704symbols,12128currenttwo-barrows;384format-excludedpreferred/warrants,88othermissing and576insufficient/stale rows. Allrecoverybatches200; cannot claim everyUSlistingfullycovered.2 Price>=5/daydollarvolume>=10m/nonETF leaves2442; allhistoricalrequestscompleted,2351have>=253bars;91insufficient. Full2351rank/vol/ADVmetrics archived89observations, seven significantdigits, fullprecisionCSV retained. TopAXTI2326.97%,SNDK1702.65%,WOLF1556.04%12-1momentum; dailyleadersTNON117.21/DBGI81.07/PCLA31.00% notsamefactor.3 Overseas20instrumentpanel in9markets,16stocks4indices; localcurrencyhistoriesSep9orSep10, notexhaustiveforeignlistingcensus. ASML/HSBC/MUFGtopstocks; crosscalendar,FX,dividendandvenuegaps.4 Crypto25pairs23sufficient histories,allnegative12-1scores; PAXG211/MKR36rows failhistory. Stablecoinsnotriskmomentum. Counterexample current-survivor winners inflatehistoricalstocktest, so independentfixedsectorfamilyused. Conclusion broad discovery achievedwithnamedcoveragegaps, nostock-specificliveedge. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ .

Premises:1 USleaders AXTI/SNDK have original issuerreported revenue/margin acceleration, observations23630–31, but extreme measuredvol166.42/136.27% and priorannouncements mean no freshsurprise estimate. SNDK1692.59whole share exceeds187.22fund; fractions entailRTHonlyexit.2 WOLF1556%12-1rank spansSep29 2025Chapter11emergence; old/newshareeconomics not reconciled, reject that rankpendingcorporateactionaudit.3 GlobalASML12-1+120.67%localcurrency accompanies Q2FCF+1317mEUR butH1-1290.9m,AR+4229.6m; bothperiods canbetrue, receiptsmaylag growth, not proofbaddebt.4 HSBC local+61.40%,H1RoTE18.2% butCET114.1vs14.9% andECL47vs42bp; profitability doesn't eliminatecredit/valuationrisk. Conclusion watchoperatingleaders, nofundamentaloverride ofunvalidatedquantentry. Strongestcounterargument persistentdemandcanjustifyrichprices; requires cashconversionandindependentcostedrule, not assumedmeanreversion. Sources: https://investors.axt.com/Investors/news/news-details/2026/AXT-Inc--Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx ; https://investor.sandisk.com/node/8136/pdf ; https://investor.wolfspeed.com/news/news-details/2025/Wolfspeed-Successfully-Completes-Financial-Restructuring-Emerges-as-Financially-Stronger-Company-Well-Positioned-in-Silicon-Carbide-Market/default.aspx ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/937966/000162828026048235/financialstatementsusgaa.htm ; https://www.hsbc.com/-/files/hsbc/investors/hsbc-results/2026/interim/pdfs/hsbc-holdings-plc/260804-hsbc-holdings-plc-interim-results-2026-media-release.pdf . Originals fromJul15/Jul30/Aug4/Aug5 2026; WOLF2025. Issuerbias acknowledged; SECcopy notindependentcorroboration.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-189]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 15bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 190trades, mean 0.625286%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-0.437693,1.761003]%, p=35.2632%, W=8.1038%, L=3.4484%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.038580. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-189]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 15bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 55trades, mean 0.497706%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-1.106902,2.078437]%, p=36.3636%, W=5.8362%, L=2.5529%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.042640. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-189]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 5bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 188trades, mean 0.890330%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-0.188323,2.061320]%, p=36.1702%, W=8.3338%, L=3.3276%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.053417. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-189]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 5bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 54trades, mean 0.689527%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-0.960180,2.353536]%, p=37.0370%, W=5.9756%, L=2.4199%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.057695. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-252]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 15bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 190trades, mean 1.011710%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-0.048485,2.130268]%, p=38.4211%, W=8.2380%, L=3.4970%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.061405. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-252]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 15bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 48trades, mean -0.511591%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-2.046171,0.966631]%, p=33.3333%, W=4.4882%, L=3.0115%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.000000. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-252]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 5bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 189trades, mean 1.268803%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[0.218449,2.374473]%, p=39.6825%, W=8.3631%, L=3.3985%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.075857. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-252]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 5bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 47trades, mean -0.085267%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-1.710557,1.616211]%, p=38.2979%, W=4.4972%, L=2.9296%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.000000. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

StartQuant187.22cash/account850.99;goalrepeatablepositive netreturns;bindingconstraint independentlyvalidated venue-compatible fullrule. Premises:1 Freshledger0holdings/pending; originalwatchdocumentsunchanged andactualTXNMresponsesunknown.2 New200daydailyadapter training-6.9493%stress,N228; holdout+6.0076%,N162butexpectancyCI[-.3822,.9492]%cross0; traininghalfKelly0; all3lookbackstrainingnegative.3 Monthly10SMAcontrol stress train+27.3534%,holdout+27.7307%,DD6.9999%,N22 is researchworthybutnostops/targets anddifferentcash/timing/portfolioimplementation; cannotinheritreturnsinto3Rliveexit.4 All9ETFfreshcrossfalse; AVAVpositiveEAR3.274346pp remainsfrozenpaper229 withold1.5Rrule/N9uncertainty. Conclusion noopen/close/cancel/adjust;cashchosenforunvalidatedcurrentasymmetricpayoff,notbecausealltrendstrategiesfail. Validmandateinference; soundnesslimitedbyvendoradjustments,selection,15minfillproxy,missingregulatortext andsmallmonthlysample. Strongestcounterargument monthlytrendcouldpaywhilecashmissesit; testcompliantfullruleonanindependentperiod/prospectivedata,notalreadyinspectedneighbors. HalfKellylive0; venuepositioncap212.7475,fundcap187.22,normalrisk25.5297 are ceilings nottargets. Funding349.01 doesnotchangeodds. NoFUNDline: monthlytrendfitsQuantmandate. Monitor230resolved,23402UTCarmed;229paper/185CPIretained;196testedcollector4x30minaccepted,actualrunpending;15/85retained. Sources2352–63daily,2368/2371–73monthly,2329–30fundamentals,2343/2346–47/2376; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf ; https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises:1 Sep10SIP/all closes and200SMA/20ATR inobservation23099: SPY757.83/711.49165/5.36936; IWM287.7/272.8899/3.000525; EFA105.66/100.58775/.83187; EEM67/61.68155/.93239; TLT80.78/84.5271/.700375; IEF91.18/93.443375/.354245; GLD396.36/415.812/7.919945; DBC33.62/27.30835/.432765; VNQ94.12/93.1313/1.013435.2 SixaboveSMA butall9freshcrossfalse.3 Frozenrule requirescross, thenpriorATR definesrisk; trendstatealone cannotauthorizecatchup. Conclusion currententrycount0 independentlyoffailedtraining. With187.22cash one shareSPY/IWM/GLDunaffordable, otherspotentiallyaffordablebutnineequal20.80USDsleeves requirefractions; physicalwhole-shareportfolio differssimulation. Liquid dailyvolume1.02mminimumDBC doesnotguaranteeafterhoursspreads. Correlationsshow stockandbondpairs commonbets; no selectivefundreallocationbasedonbestbacktestcell. Strongestcounterargument momentumcanpersistwithoutfreshcross; thatrequiresdifferenttestedrule. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observation23099 andresults2352–63.

Diagnostic note2092 added after initialdailytraining inspected; not independentpreregistration/no winnerselection. Period2023-01-03–2026-09-10. Priorcalendar-month finalclose above10monthlycloseSMA holds followingmonth; only firsttradingdayopen signals, no catchup atsplitinitialsession; terminalclose liquidation. Fivefixedindependent equalcapital sleeves,1000each,no monthlycapitalrebalance,cash0%;SIP/alladjustment not independentlybuilt totalreturn. vectorbt from_orders longonly, fee1bp+slip15bp eachside; excludes taxes, cashyield, operatorcosts, no stops/targets. Authorpaperuses same-monthsignalclose andTbillcash; thislaggedproxy differs. Bothperiods profitable; WATCHmonthlyresearch, notlivepermission. Missing current>=3R stop/target and15min/whole-share implementation; modifying rule requires independenttest, existingobserved2023–2026 no longer untouched. Fiveassetmatch from200dailyreturns baseline train-3.20348/holdout12.65007%,stress-7.77259/+9.01443%; differentrule/exposuretiming, cannot attribute difference solelytostops orcausality. Sources https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Code research/monthly_control.py andmonthly_control.json retained.

Diagnostic note2092 added after initialdailytraining inspected; not independentpreregistration/no winnerselection. Period2023-01-03–2026-09-10. Priorcalendar-month finalclose above10monthlycloseSMA holds followingmonth; only firsttradingdayopen signals, no catchup atsplitinitialsession; terminalclose liquidation. Fivefixedindependent equalcapital sleeves,1000each,no monthlycapitalrebalance,cash0%;SIP/alladjustment not independentlybuilt totalreturn. vectorbt from_orders longonly, fee1bp+slip5bp eachside; excludes taxes, cashyield, operatorcosts, no stops/targets. Authorpaperuses same-monthsignalclose andTbillcash; thislaggedproxy differs. Bothperiods profitable; WATCHmonthlyresearch, notlivepermission. Missing current>=3R stop/target and15min/whole-share implementation; modifying rule requires independenttest, existingobserved2023–2026 no longer untouched. Fiveassetmatch from200dailyreturns baseline train-3.20348/holdout12.65007%,stress-7.77259/+9.01443%; differentrule/exposuretiming, cannot attribute difference solelytostops orcausality. Sources https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Code research/monthly_control.py andmonthly_control.json retained.

Diagnostic note2092 added after initialdailytraining inspected; not independentpreregistration/no winnerselection. Period2016-12-29–2022-12-30. Priorcalendar-month finalclose above10monthlycloseSMA holds followingmonth; only firsttradingdayopen signals, no catchup atsplitinitialsession; terminalclose liquidation. Fivefixedindependent equalcapital sleeves,1000each,no monthlycapitalrebalance,cash0%;SIP/alladjustment not independentlybuilt totalreturn. vectorbt from_orders longonly, fee1bp+slip15bp eachside; excludes taxes, cashyield, operatorcosts, no stops/targets. Authorpaperuses same-monthsignalclose andTbillcash; thislaggedproxy differs. Bothperiods profitable; WATCHmonthlyresearch, notlivepermission. Missing current>=3R stop/target and15min/whole-share implementation; modifying rule requires independenttest, existingobserved2023–2026 no longer untouched. Fiveassetmatch from200dailyreturns baseline train-3.20348/holdout12.65007%,stress-7.77259/+9.01443%; differentrule/exposuretiming, cannot attribute difference solelytostops orcausality. Sources https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Code research/monthly_control.py andmonthly_control.json retained.

Diagnostic note2092 added after initialdailytraining inspected; not independentpreregistration/no winnerselection. Period2016-12-29–2022-12-30. Priorcalendar-month finalclose above10monthlycloseSMA holds followingmonth; only firsttradingdayopen signals, no catchup atsplitinitialsession; terminalclose liquidation. Fivefixedindependent equalcapital sleeves,1000each,no monthlycapitalrebalance,cash0%;SIP/alladjustment not independentlybuilt totalreturn. vectorbt from_orders longonly, fee1bp+slip5bp eachside; excludes taxes, cashyield, operatorcosts, no stops/targets. Authorpaperuses same-monthsignalclose andTbillcash; thislaggedproxy differs. Bothperiods profitable; WATCHmonthlyresearch, notlivepermission. Missing current>=3R stop/target and15min/whole-share implementation; modifying rule requires independenttest, existingobserved2023–2026 no longer untouched. Fiveassetmatch from200dailyreturns baseline train-3.20348/holdout12.65007%,stress-7.77259/+9.01443%; differentrule/exposuretiming, cannot attribute difference solelytostops orcausality. Sources https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Code research/monthly_control.py andmonthly_control.json retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(0); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":26.38377201205344,"IWM":5.354821332148041,"EFA":28.51371131393328,"EEM":17.639756103504478,"TLT":-27.905545909065754,"IEF":-13.115800110816622,"GLD":7.4620880456991445,"DBC":2.371501098360529,"VNQ":0.28147353536602804}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(0); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":29.45367737624258,"IWM":7.054057957035864,"EFA":30.84790536983071,"EEM":21.222423989776452,"TLT":-22.986772474113316,"IEF":-8.295059481656253,"GLD":8.759402828612984,"DBC":6.336479925047089,"VNQ":6.695718881876278}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":3.4078171497209597,"IWM":-5.579949231820303,"EFA":-22.07376939450205,"EEM":-17.321886586017243,"TLT":-22.131031210091756,"IEF":-6.905174309487084,"GLD":-9.300987020688344,"DBC":1.167379643909805,"VNQ":3.167766729063204}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":6.557057491275531,"IWM":-2.1188985278281947,"EFA":-17.089419400321816,"EEM":-13.602826228651354,"TLT":-18.95313479617693,"IEF":-3.4927009060862213,"GLD":-5.031379677702052,"DBC":4.875759672186408,"VNQ":9.109997748285537}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":38.497527925049326,"IWM":35.866113507717756,"EFA":47.203643961592626,"EEM":51.00243420798159,"TLT":-20.113842950253492,"IEF":-5.57555833209975,"GLD":-4.154784612903684,"DBC":7.723165262803899,"VNQ":4.05070421375362}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":41.01305800455537,"IWM":39.44495973061672,"EFA":51.68666726452622,"EEM":58.11079273058517,"TLT":-14.663466606171571,"IEF":-0.5355780434952995,"GLD":-2.608925598131484,"DBC":11.895420869374473,"VNQ":12.042515396131659}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(3); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":-14.591613736966558,"IWM":-18.039455740205433,"EFA":0.9680625445164681,"EEM":2.144943042648273,"TLT":-5.227152560452353,"IEF":-5.568513117853302,"GLD":-5.939073491687397,"DBC":-19.153644482547826,"VNQ":-19.11324054522835}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.