1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy penultimate monthly session close, sell third next-month session close. Four close-to-close turn-of-month daily returns; auction prices are proxies, no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-0.17
drawdown12.05
win rate47.46
sample59
average win1.69
average loss1.49
mean payoff0.02
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 EEM parent train: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2026 through September4:8 completed cohorts, descriptive recent check. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-0.02
drawdown3.97
win rate50
sample8
average win1.67
average loss1.64
mean payoff0.01
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 EFA swing later: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-14.81
drawdown16.76
win rate50.85
sample59
average win1.01
average loss1.57
mean payoff-0.26
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 EFA swing train: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2016-2020 training:58 completed cohorts after warm-up; cross-split turns purged. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-10.16
drawdown16.93
win rate48.28
sample58
average win1.04
average loss1.31
mean payoff-0.18
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 EFA delay recent: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy last monthly session open, sell fourth next-month session open. Timing adaptation differs from the original close-to-close paper; no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-6.84
drawdown20.57
win rate62.71
sample59
average win1.21
average loss2.29
mean payoff-0.1
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 EFA delay train: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy penultimate monthly session close, sell third next-month session close. Four close-to-close turn-of-month daily returns; auction prices are proxies, no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-14.81
drawdown23.43
win rate50.85
sample59
average win1.17
average loss1.72
mean payoff-0.25
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 EFA parent train: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2026 through September4:8 completed cohorts, descriptive recent check. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-2.94
drawdown5.48
win rate50
sample8
average win1.06
average loss1.78
mean payoff-0.36
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 IWM swing later: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-18.33
drawdown22.2
win rate49.15
sample59
average win1.4
average loss1.99
mean payoff-0.32
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 IWM swing train: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2016-2020 training:58 completed cohorts after warm-up; cross-split turns purged. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-23.2
drawdown31.62
win rate43.1
sample58
average win1.32
average loss1.76
mean payoff-0.44
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 IWM delay recent: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy last monthly session open, sell fourth next-month session open. Timing adaptation differs from the original close-to-close paper; no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-13.83
drawdown26.97
win rate49.15
sample59
average win2.08
average loss2.42
mean payoff-0.21
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 IWM delay train: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy penultimate monthly session close, sell third next-month session close. Four close-to-close turn-of-month daily returns; auction prices are proxies, no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-19.24
drawdown30.23
win rate47.46
sample59
average win1.81
average loss2.25
mean payoff-0.32
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 IWM parent train: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2026 through September4:8 completed cohorts, descriptive recent check. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return0.88
drawdown2.36
win rate50
sample8
average win1.01
average loss0.78
mean payoff0.11
quarter Kelly0.03
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 SPY swing later: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.
return-11.19
drawdown15.54
win rate47.46
sample59
average win1.04
average loss1.31
mean payoff-0.19
quarter Kelly0
fee bp5
slippage bp5
actual allocation0
QTM90800 SPY swing train: frozen turn-of-month test
1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2016-2020 training:58 completed cohorts after warm-up; cross-split turns purged. Buy last monthly session open; previous20-session simpleATR stop1ATR,target1.5ATR; half off at+1ATR then breakeven; exit remaining at fourth next-month open. Daily stopfirst on ambiguity; if a bar hits+1R and also entry, conservatively close remainder at entry; gap stops at open. Targetgap may close remainder at open. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.