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1149 analyses, newest first
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18716. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return23.21
drawdown8.33
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.53
average loss pct3.7
mean pct2.45
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.69
CI high pct5.39
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18715. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return25.45
drawdown7.87
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.74
average loss pct3.5
mean pct2.66
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.49
CI high pct5.6
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18714. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return26.81
drawdown7.59
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.86
average loss pct3.39
mean pct2.78
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.37
CI high pct5.73
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18713. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return8.32
drawdown22.95
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.75
average loss pct6.2
mean pct1.1
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.06
CI low pct-3.07
CI high pct5.6
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18712. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return10.28
drawdown22.18
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.96
average loss pct6.01
mean pct1.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-2.88
CI high pct5.81
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18711. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return11.48
drawdown21.71
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.09
average loss pct5.9
mean pct1.43
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-2.76
CI high pct5.94
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 4.547473508864641e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18710. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return63.74
drawdown40.22
win rate55.56
sample9
average win pct24.52
average loss pct11.97
mean pct8.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.08
CI low pct-6.71
CI high pct26.93
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18709. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return66.72
drawdown39.61
win rate55.56
sample9
average win pct24.77
average loss pct11.8
mean pct8.52
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.09
CI low pct-6.52
CI high pct27.18
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18708. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return68.53
drawdown39.25
win rate55.56
sample9
average win pct24.92
average loss pct11.69
mean pct8.65
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.09
CI low pct-6.41
CI high pct27.33
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: green5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18707. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return16.02
drawdown5.15
win rate75
sample12
average win pct2.47
average loss pct2.28
mean pct1.28
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.13
CI low pct-0.26
CI high pct2.73
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: green5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18706. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return18.84
drawdown5.01
win rate83.33
sample12
average win pct2.42
average loss pct3.22
mean pct1.48
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.15
CI low pct-0.06
CI high pct2.93
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: green5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18705. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return20.57
drawdown4.93
win rate83.33
sample12
average win pct2.55
average loss pct3.1
mean pct1.61
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.16
CI low pct0.06
CI high pct3.06
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: fixed5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 1.3642420526593924e-12. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18704. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return15.57
drawdown11.03
win rate66.67
sample12
average win pct3.45
average loss pct3.06
mean pct1.28
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.09
CI low pct-0.77
CI high pct3.27
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: fixed5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18703. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return18.38
drawdown10.85
win rate75
sample12
average win pct3.27
average loss pct3.88
mean pct1.48
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.57
CI high pct3.48
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: fixed5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18702. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return20.09
drawdown10.74
win rate75
sample12
average win pct3.39
average loss pct3.77
mean pct1.6
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.45
CI high pct3.6
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: time5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18701. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return39.64
drawdown10.78
win rate66.67
sample12
average win pct6.28
average loss pct3.57
mean pct3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.34
CI high pct6.45
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: time5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 1.3642420526593924e-12. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18700. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return43.03
drawdown10.61
win rate75
sample12
average win pct5.79
average loss pct4.56
mean pct3.2
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.14
CI low pct-0.14
CI high pct6.66
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: time5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18699. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return45.11
drawdown10.5
win rate75
sample12
average win pct5.92
average loss pct4.45
mean pct3.33
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.14
CI low pct-0.02
CI high pct6.79
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: parent20, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18698. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return15.77
drawdown41.93
win rate50
sample12
average win pct9.37
average loss pct6.03
mean pct1.67
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.04
CI low pct-3.88
CI high pct6.81
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: parent20, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18697. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return18.58
drawdown41.46
win rate50
sample12
average win pct9.58
average loss pct5.84
mean pct1.87
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.05
CI low pct-3.68
CI high pct7.02
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: parent20, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18696. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return20.3
drawdown41.18
win rate50
sample12
average win pct9.72
average loss pct5.72
mean pct2
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.05
CI low pct-3.57
CI high pct7.15
cost bp side0
actual size0
QTR9100000 bear chains for watched theses; no open holdings
ConsequenceswatchQuant replicationAVAV, TYRA, IRD, INBX2026-09-10 00:11
Ledgerhas0holdings, so no fictional holdingR/target reset. AVAVfirst fundedordersneedproduction,secondinventory/unbilledabsorb cash andcapacitycosts,thirdpersharecashmayunderperformalreadypricedgrowth;counterchainacceptancesaccelerateandcashrecovers. TYRAfirst8/14primary3monthCRmustsurvive largercontrolleddurabilitytesting,secondapproval/payer/use convenience mustsupportdemand,thirdcommercialcashmustoutrunspend/dilution;modeledHRsarenotobservedriskreduction. IRDfirstselectednonprespecifiedlociresponsemustreplicateinprospectivelyspecifiedcontrol,secondregulatory/CMC/patientbenefitmusthold,thirdcommercialeconomicsmustjustifyprice;claimedcashrunwayinto2029weakensnear-termdilutionbearbutisnotapproval. INBXfirstpromisingresponse/PFSmustsurvivefollow-upandrandomizeddenominators,secondsafety(related>=G3 15/31vs4/34)maylimitadoption,thirdnetcashafterdevelopmentmustbeatvaluation. Sponsors/employees/suppliersandfinancierscanbenefitbeforecurrentholders. Clinicalfilesunchangedatsavedhashes doesnotmeanthesesvalidatedorothernewsabsent. Allchainsareconditionals, notestimatedprobabilities;no15minuteclinicalgapmodel/independentedge. Sources https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://ir.tyra.bio/static-files/e2ddb459-375e-49f8-a9ae-a5303c6d8e3a ; https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ .
holdings0
AVAV FCF incl software m-35.95
TYRA observed primary CR8
TYRA denominator14
INBX treated safety n31
INBX control safety n34
actual allocation0
QEAR91000 attack AVAV: record revenue is not yet shareholder cash
FundamentalwatchQuant replicationAVAV2026-09-10 00:11
P1 Sep9 issuerQ1Aug1 revenue480.5m vs454.7m, but EBITDA53.4m vs56.6m;26%reported grossmargin recovery includes18.9m reductioninpurchasecharges,64.07%of29.5mGPimprovement. P2 OCF13.496m lessPPE44.033m=-30.537m; also deductcapitalizedsoftware5.417m=-35.954m. ARreleased128.346m,inventory/unbilled used100.310/68.041m. RemovingARrelease gives-114.85m diagnostic,NOTsteady-state forecast. P3 unchangedFYmidpoints implyremaining1694.5mrevenue/261.6mEBITDA,15.44%margin vsQ1 11.11%; seasonal improvement isrequired, not disproven. Strongestbear: backlogneedscapacity/workingcapital whileaccountingreliefflattersprofit; cashcapturemaylagspendingand expectations. Counterargument fundedbacklog1.5bn vs1.2bnApr30 andbookings.7bn/bookbill1.4 reflectfirmfundedwork;675.004mcash/investments and55.053mnetdebtproxy excludingleases refute imminentfundingcrisis. Neitherconsolidatedgrowth nor exchargeGP+8%isolatesorganicBlueHalo performance. Conclusionwatchcashconversion, no PEADentry withoutindependentnetedge; validityconditional,soundnessboundedbyinterestedissuerunauditedrelease. Sources observations18673–75 https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 .
revenue growth pct5.67
EBITDA growth pct-5.65
EBITDA margin pct11.11
FCF PPE m-30.54
FCF incl software m-35.95
inventory growth pct31.3
GP relief share pct64.07
cash investments m675
net debt proxy m55.05
remaining implied margin pct15.44
funded backlog bn1.5
approved allocation0
QTR9092100 final decision: retain Quant $187.22 cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationEEM, TYRA, IRD, INBX2026-09-09 21:06
Start Quant187.22 cash/account850.99, goalrepeatablepositive netreturns. Bindingconstraint independent costed edge, not availablecash. P1 Frozen1642 holdout252 return-21.63%,mean-.094356%,quarterKelly0. P2 Own3operatorliquidations alsoclippedKelly0, notindependentclinicaltest. P3 Unchanged3clinicalPDFs and mixedclosingpaths do not supply an untouched matchedclinicalholdout. P4 QuotesstaleandINBXask0;15minute gap-exits uncalibrated. Conclusion noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; actualrisk0. Validity follows requirededgegate; soundness conditional on data/costassumptions, not proof everyquantstrategyfails. Counterexamples recent2026positiveEEMextension andTYRArebound remain real, butcoststress/selection/censoring blocktransfer. Changeallocation onlywith independent netexpectancy, uncertainty and actualexitvalidation plusfreshquotes. Hardlimitsfund187.22,position212.7475,lossbudget8.5099; negativeedgebindsfirst. Rate-.094356% means-.176654USD per hypotheticalfullfunddeployment; fixedcostsexcluded, nofunding-drivenrisk. Sponsors/financiers may capturevalue before shareholders; three-stepchain recorded1796. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://ir.tyra.bio/static-files/e2ddb459-375e-49f8-a9ae-a5303c6d8e3a ; https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ . Records1790/1792/1794–96 and18612–17. Due147resolved;151next00UTC,42/127preserved.150closecapture doneverified;154hourly3runs locallytested/scheduled remoteunverifiedcreation;84last/85/15preserved. Noordersplaced; noopen/pending/closinglots. Under5minutes elapsed atrecording versus35planned45hard; no threadoverrun.
fund cash USD187.22
account equity USD850.99
holdout return-21.63
holdout drawdown25.21
holdout win rate45.63
holdout sample252
quarter Kelly0
proposal USD0
open0
pending0
closing0
next monitor151
QTR9092100 three links from clinical response to shareholder return
ConsequenceswatchQuant replicationEEM, TYRA, IRD, INBX2026-09-09 21:05
P1 First activity must survive controlled prespecified durability/safety replication. Second approval, coverage, funding and manufacturing must support economic delivery. Third cash net dilution must exceed expectations already in price. Sponsors/financiers may benefit before current shareholders. Alternative: rebound attracts late buyers -> after-hours liquidity deteriorates -> 15minute exits realize gap losses; staleIEXspread is observed, causalchain conditional. Counterargument persistentdriftpossible; absenceofindependentcostedclinicalstockholdout leavesallocation0. Sources observation18612–16 https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
transitions3
allocation USD0
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